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memenodes
Me checking if i'm already rich yet or still pre-rich every morning https://t.co/JCTX3gMbLM
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Me checking if i'm already rich yet or still pre-rich every morning https://t.co/JCTX3gMbLM
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Offshore
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memenodes
never lose faith crypto guys, maybe the women of your life is still in production https://t.co/TiTJLcvpc4
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never lose faith crypto guys, maybe the women of your life is still in production https://t.co/TiTJLcvpc4
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EndGame Macro
The Industrial Slowdown Was Phase One. Phase Two Depends on the Consumer
What you’re looking at is the combined pulse of the manufacturing economy. Each line represents a different Fed district asking local factories a simple question: “Are things getting better or worse?” Above zero means improvement, below zero means contraction. When you average all the regions together, you get a pretty reliable sense of the national trend.
The story is clear. Early 2021 through mid-2022 was the overheated, post COVID surge…reopening demand, stimulus, supply chain chaos. Then things cooled hard. Higher rates hit, inventories got worked down, global demand softened. Manufacturing slipped below zero and stayed there, almost two full years of quiet contraction. Not a crash just a long, grinding slowdown.
Now, in mid 2025, everything is clustering around the flat line. It’s not booming, but it isn’t sliding further either. It’s the look of a sector that’s done most of its bleeding and is trying to find a floor.
Where We Are Now And What Happens If the Broader Economy Rolls Over
If the rest of the economy were still healthy, you’d probably say manufacturing is bottoming out. It already went through its own private recession, and historically this kind of stability around zero is the phase before a slow, uneven recovery.
But if you assume the broader economy finally softens and consumer spending slows, services stop carrying the load, credit gets tight this chart reads very differently.
Instead of manufacturing is stabilizing, it becomes manufacturing has already taken its hit… and now the rest of the economy is catching down. In that scenario, these surveys don’t drift from negative to positive, they turn back down with a second leg, this time reinforced by layoffs, weaker orders, and a pullback in investment across multiple sectors, not just factories.
That’s how a long, contained industrial slump turns into a full cycle downturn: the part of the economy that held everything up finally runs out of momentum. Manufacturing doesn’t cause the recession, it simply stops hiding the one that’s been building underneath.
So the question the chart is really asking isn’t whether factories are improving.
It’s whether the rest of the economy gives them room to recover… or pulls them back under on the way down.
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The Industrial Slowdown Was Phase One. Phase Two Depends on the Consumer
What you’re looking at is the combined pulse of the manufacturing economy. Each line represents a different Fed district asking local factories a simple question: “Are things getting better or worse?” Above zero means improvement, below zero means contraction. When you average all the regions together, you get a pretty reliable sense of the national trend.
The story is clear. Early 2021 through mid-2022 was the overheated, post COVID surge…reopening demand, stimulus, supply chain chaos. Then things cooled hard. Higher rates hit, inventories got worked down, global demand softened. Manufacturing slipped below zero and stayed there, almost two full years of quiet contraction. Not a crash just a long, grinding slowdown.
Now, in mid 2025, everything is clustering around the flat line. It’s not booming, but it isn’t sliding further either. It’s the look of a sector that’s done most of its bleeding and is trying to find a floor.
Where We Are Now And What Happens If the Broader Economy Rolls Over
If the rest of the economy were still healthy, you’d probably say manufacturing is bottoming out. It already went through its own private recession, and historically this kind of stability around zero is the phase before a slow, uneven recovery.
But if you assume the broader economy finally softens and consumer spending slows, services stop carrying the load, credit gets tight this chart reads very differently.
Instead of manufacturing is stabilizing, it becomes manufacturing has already taken its hit… and now the rest of the economy is catching down. In that scenario, these surveys don’t drift from negative to positive, they turn back down with a second leg, this time reinforced by layoffs, weaker orders, and a pullback in investment across multiple sectors, not just factories.
That’s how a long, contained industrial slump turns into a full cycle downturn: the part of the economy that held everything up finally runs out of momentum. Manufacturing doesn’t cause the recession, it simply stops hiding the one that’s been building underneath.
So the question the chart is really asking isn’t whether factories are improving.
It’s whether the rest of the economy gives them room to recover… or pulls them back under on the way down.
Manufacturing started contracting around mid-'22 and has been in the doldrums ever since: https://t.co/LfSH9F5uDP tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Grab is the largest ride sharing & food delivery platform in Southeast Asia.
Over the last 3 years, they've shown remarkable operating leverage as they've scaled.
$GRAB https://t.co/KLH0FypG2B
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Grab is the largest ride sharing & food delivery platform in Southeast Asia.
Over the last 3 years, they've shown remarkable operating leverage as they've scaled.
$GRAB https://t.co/KLH0FypG2B
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $GOOGL $META $AMZN
OpenAI is now internally testing 'ads' inside ChatGPT that could redefine the web economy.
Up until now, the ChatGPT experience has been completely free. While there are premium plans and models, you don't see GPT sell you products or show ads.
As spotted by Tibor on X, ChatGPT Android app 1.2025.329 beta includes new references to an "ads feature" with "bazaar content", "search ad" and "search ads carousel."
https://t.co/xr1AJdVfgt
It is likely that ads will be limited to the search experience only, but that might change soon.
My understanding is that GPT ads could be highly personalised as the AI knows everything about you unless you disable the feature,
https://t.co/5vILyxtHFk
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OpenAI $GOOGL $META $AMZN
OpenAI is now internally testing 'ads' inside ChatGPT that could redefine the web economy.
Up until now, the ChatGPT experience has been completely free. While there are premium plans and models, you don't see GPT sell you products or show ads.
As spotted by Tibor on X, ChatGPT Android app 1.2025.329 beta includes new references to an "ads feature" with "bazaar content", "search ad" and "search ads carousel."
https://t.co/xr1AJdVfgt
It is likely that ads will be limited to the search experience only, but that might change soon.
My understanding is that GPT ads could be highly personalised as the AI knows everything about you unless you disable the feature,
https://t.co/5vILyxtHFk
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals:
🇨🇳 Alibaba $BABA
👷 Home Depot: $HD
👔 Workday $WDAY
💻 Dell $DELL
☁️ Zscaler $ZS
and many more!
https://t.co/cAvMwnG1YP
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📊 This Week in Visuals:
🇨🇳 Alibaba $BABA
👷 Home Depot: $HD
👔 Workday $WDAY
💻 Dell $DELL
☁️ Zscaler $ZS
and many more!
https://t.co/cAvMwnG1YP
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