s.

Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year.

At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March.

This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years.

All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years.

US layoffs are accelerating. - The Kobeissi Letter tweet

EndGame Macro
The Ratio That Never Lies: Stocks Are Losing the Fight to Gold

This is the Dow to Gold ratio stretched across more than a century. It’s one of those rare charts that doesn’t scream, it whispers but the message is the same every time. When the ratio is high, stocks are massively favored over real money. When it rolls over from those highs, it usually marks the start of a long period where that relationship flips.

You can see the big turning points clearly…the late 1920s, the early 1970s, and the mid 2000s. Each time, once the ratio broke, it didn’t just drift lower. It unwound for years. Sometimes because stocks fell. Sometimes because gold ripped. Usually some mix of both. What matters is the pattern: the reversal doesn’t stop at the dotted line, it tends to keep going until sentiment, valuations, and macro conditions all reset.

Why This Moment Feels Familiar

Now we’re watching that same rollover again. The ratio has already slipped back to the levels we saw near those previous major peaks, and the macro backdrop that follows these turns is already taking shape. Growth is slowing, layoffs are rising, credit stress is spreading, and real yields are unstable. Meanwhile, central banks especially outside the U.S. are quietly accumulating gold like they don’t trust the next decade of policy one bit.

You don’t need a stock market crash or a gold mania to push this lower. You just need a world where stocks don’t deliver the dream scenario they’re priced for, and gold does what it always does when people stop trusting paper promises: quietly absorb the doubt.

My Read

My view is that we’re early and not late in this turn. I’d put a high probability that this ratio keeps sliding over the next several years, not because of drama, but because the cycle is shifting underneath it. Margins are thinning, liquidity is tightening, and real assets are becoming the safety valve again.

Could the ratio snap back up? Sure…if growth reaccelerates, deficits shrink, inflation behaves, and geopolitical risk evaporates. But that’s not the world we’re living in. The world we’re in looks a lot more like the early chapters of 1929, 1973, or 2008 a period where the old regime quietly fades and hard assets slowly regain the upper hand.

Keep an eye on the Dow Jones to Gold Ratio.

Chart technical indicators are saying it's about to plummet. https://t.co/jx4y2rOyEv - Financelot
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EndGame Macro
RT @TOzgokmen: LARGEST CLUSTER HIGH-RISE FIRE & NO FREE FALLS:

7 towers in Hong Kong have been burning for 24 hours.

This is from grok:

"Hong Kong's Wang Fuk Court complex—where flames engulfed seven high-rise towers simultaneously—is the largest documented incident of multiple high-rise buildings burning together in a single fire event in modern history. This scale is unprecedented."

I have a better memory thaN fruit flies in that I can detect anomalies with respect to what I have seen in my life.

In comparison, World Trade Center started collapsing in a free fall after 56 mins. No other high rise or modern building ever collapsed during a fire, apart from 9/11.

Seven tall buildings burned in Hong Kong today; none collapsed in a free fall, unlike during 9/11. - 471TO
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memenodes
me realizing I spent 2 years grinding a 9-5 while Sophie made $95M posting spider-man videos and bible verses 😭😭

thankful for two years on here 🫶🏻 https://t.co/hDxtyHskVy - Sophie Rain
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memenodes
When normies tell me that crypto is risky and to be careful https://t.co/vHTaMSvpXd
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memenodes
“Crypto is very dangerous and risky”

Crypto bros: https://t.co/OaHQwlAX3w
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memenodes
When your buddy is saying they won’t buy more bitcoin at $90,000 because it feels too risky https://t.co/M2kktujkZ6
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 29.25x
•5-Year Mean: 30.92x

•NTM FCF Yield: 1.98%
•5-Year Mean: 2.80%

As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value on an earnings basis

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $102.01B
•Long-Term Debt: $35.38B

$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 34.0%
•2023: 30.9%
•2024: 29.7%
•2025: 28.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 47.1%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 38.8%
•2024: 37.1%
•2025: 33.3%

$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUE✅
•2021: $168.09B
•2026E: $326.83B
•CAGR: 14.22%

FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2021: $56.12B
•2026E: $75.70B
•CAGR: 6.17%

*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment — current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2021: $7.97
•2026E: $16.10
•CAGR: 15.10%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
•LTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2015: $1.24
•2025: $3.32
•CAGR: 10.34%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~29% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.63%) required growth rate:

2026E: $16.10 (18% YoY) *FY Jun

2027E: $18.73 (16% YoY)
2028E: $22.27 (18% YoY)

$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.27 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $712💵 … ~16.7% CAGR

30x P/E: $668💵 … ~13.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $646💵 … ~12.4% CAGR

28x P/E: $623💵 … ~10.9% CAGR

27x P/E: $601💵 … ~9.4% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential

At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential

$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders

Although I wouldn’t want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$485💵 while relying on 28x - 29x

I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $440💵, where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 26x
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.

𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
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Quartr
Edge #69: Duolingo

How does a nagging green owl translate into one of the strongest subscription businesses in consumer tech?

Coming to your inbox in a few hours. https://t.co/C0UaWhfHSJ
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