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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: 🔥 Holy sh*t Black Friday is here!
📊 How They Make Money Premium.
👀 50% off — $199 → $99/year today.
Unlock thousands of visuals.
Weekly breakdowns and deep dives. https://t.co/hPl4bDyAoo
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RT @EconomyApp: 🔥 Holy sh*t Black Friday is here!
📊 How They Make Money Premium.
👀 50% off — $199 → $99/year today.
Unlock thousands of visuals.
Weekly breakdowns and deep dives. https://t.co/hPl4bDyAoo
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Fiscal.ai
We just launched new and improved Performance Charts! 🚀
🗓️ New Date Selector - Set your start and end date with a simple date picker.
📈 Intraday Prices - Shorter term charts now reflect intraday price movements.
📊 Improved UI - Removed extra space for cleaner exporting. https://t.co/VNTtTvP10P
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We just launched new and improved Performance Charts! 🚀
🗓️ New Date Selector - Set your start and end date with a simple date picker.
📈 Intraday Prices - Shorter term charts now reflect intraday price movements.
📊 Improved UI - Removed extra space for cleaner exporting. https://t.co/VNTtTvP10P
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AkhenOsiris
Should be worth another $1B for valuation no? Oh wait, that was pre-bubble
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Should be worth another $1B for valuation no? Oh wait, that was pre-bubble
Moving Averages now on Perplexity Finance! https://t.co/nyv9TLvlPg tweet
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EndGame Macro
Why Global Bond Sales Are Exploding And What It Actually Means
Underneath this simple visual is a deeper shift in how governments, corporations, and the entire financial system are responding to a world that’s slowing down, aging, and carrying too much debt.
The $6 trillion YTD number isn’t just a record, it’s a symptom.
A World That Needs Cash Now
The biggest driver is straightforward: governments everywhere are running huge deficits, and they have no choice but to plug those holes with debt. When growth is soft, tax revenue slows, social spending rises, and bond issuance becomes the default policy tool. This is all happening at the same time major economies are dealing with expensive demographics (aging populations) and expensive politics (national security, industrial policy, reshoring).
That mix forces governments to tap global markets hard.
And because the U.S. dollar has weakened, foreign buyers suddenly see U.S. bonds as on sale, which only fuels more issuance.
Companies Are Grabbing Money While They Still Can
Corporate issuers are doing the same thing for a different reason. When financing conditions ease even a little, narrower credit spreads, improving liquidity, stabilizing inflation expectations, corporates rush to lock in funding. Part of it is refinancing old debt; part of it is investing in the new AI and automation cycle. But the timing is key: companies issue more because they sense that this window of relatively calm conditions may not last forever.
Bond issuance always jumps when borrowers feel the future might get more expensive.
Investors Are Desperate for Yield
On the other side of the trade, investors want something that actually pays them. After years of chasing equities, alternatives, or complex structured products, plain vanilla bonds suddenly look attractive again.
Inflation is cooling. Central banks are preparing to cut. Real yields are still positive. That’s basically a neon sign that says buy duration.
So you get huge inflows into high grade credit, sovereign bonds, and even corporate paper. And the more willing investors are to buy, the more issuers pump out supply.
What This Mix Is Really Signaling
Put it together and the message gets clearer: The global economy is not as healthy as the headline numbers suggest.
Governments are issuing because they must. Corporations are issuing because they don’t trust the future. Investors are buying because they can’t find yield anywhere else. And the entire system is leaning heavily on bond markets to finance everything from deficits to AI build outs to economic soft landing narratives.
In a stable, high confidence economy, issuance grows with GDP. In a stressed, late cycle economy, issuance explodes past GDP. That’s what the chart is showing.
This isn’t a sign of strength.
It’s a sign of dependence.
Bond markets have become the life support system for a world stuck between slow growth, high debt, and a monetary system that can’t hike without breaking things and can’t ease without reigniting inflation.
The bars are bigger because the cracks underneath are, too.
tweet
Why Global Bond Sales Are Exploding And What It Actually Means
Underneath this simple visual is a deeper shift in how governments, corporations, and the entire financial system are responding to a world that’s slowing down, aging, and carrying too much debt.
The $6 trillion YTD number isn’t just a record, it’s a symptom.
A World That Needs Cash Now
The biggest driver is straightforward: governments everywhere are running huge deficits, and they have no choice but to plug those holes with debt. When growth is soft, tax revenue slows, social spending rises, and bond issuance becomes the default policy tool. This is all happening at the same time major economies are dealing with expensive demographics (aging populations) and expensive politics (national security, industrial policy, reshoring).
That mix forces governments to tap global markets hard.
And because the U.S. dollar has weakened, foreign buyers suddenly see U.S. bonds as on sale, which only fuels more issuance.
Companies Are Grabbing Money While They Still Can
Corporate issuers are doing the same thing for a different reason. When financing conditions ease even a little, narrower credit spreads, improving liquidity, stabilizing inflation expectations, corporates rush to lock in funding. Part of it is refinancing old debt; part of it is investing in the new AI and automation cycle. But the timing is key: companies issue more because they sense that this window of relatively calm conditions may not last forever.
Bond issuance always jumps when borrowers feel the future might get more expensive.
Investors Are Desperate for Yield
On the other side of the trade, investors want something that actually pays them. After years of chasing equities, alternatives, or complex structured products, plain vanilla bonds suddenly look attractive again.
Inflation is cooling. Central banks are preparing to cut. Real yields are still positive. That’s basically a neon sign that says buy duration.
So you get huge inflows into high grade credit, sovereign bonds, and even corporate paper. And the more willing investors are to buy, the more issuers pump out supply.
What This Mix Is Really Signaling
Put it together and the message gets clearer: The global economy is not as healthy as the headline numbers suggest.
Governments are issuing because they must. Corporations are issuing because they don’t trust the future. Investors are buying because they can’t find yield anywhere else. And the entire system is leaning heavily on bond markets to finance everything from deficits to AI build outs to economic soft landing narratives.
In a stable, high confidence economy, issuance grows with GDP. In a stressed, late cycle economy, issuance explodes past GDP. That’s what the chart is showing.
This isn’t a sign of strength.
It’s a sign of dependence.
Bond markets have become the life support system for a world stuck between slow growth, high debt, and a monetary system that can’t hike without breaking things and can’t ease without reigniting inflation.
The bars are bigger because the cracks underneath are, too.
World bond corporate issuances have reached unprecedented levels:
Global bond sales hit a record $5.95 trillion in the first 10 months of 2025.
This has already surpassed the previous all-time high of $5.93 trillion set in 2024.
Issuances have risen +$2.5 trillion since 2014.
This surge has been fueled by exceptionally low credit risk, with global spreads hovering near the lowest levels since 2007.
As a result, investor demand continues to significantly outpace net bond supply.
The global debt rush is accelerating. tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Don’t Worry, Everything’s Fine… Except the Layoffs, Bankruptcies, and Delinquencies
If you strip the noise out, all of these series are saying the same thing: the labor market is finally cracking in a way that’s consistent with everything else we’ve been seeing under the surface.
MacroEdge has total job cuts jumping to around 155k in October, the highest in at least two years. Challenger’s layoff announcements are back above 150k, the worst October in more than two decades. WARN notice data from Revelio shows over 40k workers formally told they’re about to be laid off, and the broader tally for 2025 is already more than 1.1 million announced job cuts with roughly 650 large corporate bankruptcies. That’s not a quirky outlier. That’s a cluster.
You can think of it as the moment when the spreadsheet version of the economy (earnings, margins, delinquencies) finally shows up in the human version (jobs, paychecks, anxiety).
Why It’s Happening Now
For a while, the story was things feel bad, but the labor market is still strong. That was true on the surface and false underneath.
Households and companies were living off buffers: pandemic savings, cheap mortgages, ultra low interest costs, and nominal revenues goosed by inflation. That bought time. It let consumers keep spending even as real wages lagged, and it let companies tolerate weaker volumes because pricing power and low funding costs kept margins afloat.
Those cushions are now mostly gone.
On the household side, you’re seeing it in the delinquency mix. Serious auto delinquencies at the highest since 2010. Credit card 90 day delinquencies pushing up toward GFC territory. Student loan delinquencies ripping higher now that payments are back. Commercial office delinquencies at record levels. That’s what it looks like when people are out of slack and start choosing which bills not to pay.
On the corporate side, higher rates and slower demand are colliding. Interest expense has reset upward, refinancing windows are tighter, and investors are no longer paying up for growth at any cost. Revenues are flattening while costs stay sticky. Something has to give, and what gives first is usually payroll. That’s exactly what these charts show: management teams moving from hiring freezes and quiet performance cuts to visible, headline layoffs.
You can also see the structural layer. Tech and white collar jobs are being restructured around AI and automation; retailers and warehouses are cutting as goods demand cools; government and quasi public entities are reacting to budget pressure. It’s not just one sector blowing up. It’s a broad shift from we might need this capacity to we can’t afford this capacity.
The Feedback Loop This Sets Up
Layoffs aren’t just an outcome; they become an input to the next phase of the cycle.
When over a million people are told their jobs are gone or at risk, they stop behaving like confident consumers. They cut discretionary spending, delay big purchases, run down savings faster, and lean harder on credit cards and BNPL to bridge the gap. That pushes delinquencies even higher, which tightens lending standards further, which forces more companies to cut costs, which means more layoffs.
Rising job cuts, rising delinquencies, and rising bankruptcies together are the classic late cycle signal. It’s the transition from a world where excess liquidity can paper over problems to a world where cash is scarce, credit is rationed, and everyone starts playing defense at the same time.
We are clearly past the soft landing without consequences fantasy. The labor market is finally lining up with what the credit markets and delinquency data have been whispering for a year: the buffers are gone, the cost of money is biting, and the adjustment is now happening in people’s paychecks, not just in spreadsheets.
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging:
Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 year[...]
Don’t Worry, Everything’s Fine… Except the Layoffs, Bankruptcies, and Delinquencies
If you strip the noise out, all of these series are saying the same thing: the labor market is finally cracking in a way that’s consistent with everything else we’ve been seeing under the surface.
MacroEdge has total job cuts jumping to around 155k in October, the highest in at least two years. Challenger’s layoff announcements are back above 150k, the worst October in more than two decades. WARN notice data from Revelio shows over 40k workers formally told they’re about to be laid off, and the broader tally for 2025 is already more than 1.1 million announced job cuts with roughly 650 large corporate bankruptcies. That’s not a quirky outlier. That’s a cluster.
You can think of it as the moment when the spreadsheet version of the economy (earnings, margins, delinquencies) finally shows up in the human version (jobs, paychecks, anxiety).
Why It’s Happening Now
For a while, the story was things feel bad, but the labor market is still strong. That was true on the surface and false underneath.
Households and companies were living off buffers: pandemic savings, cheap mortgages, ultra low interest costs, and nominal revenues goosed by inflation. That bought time. It let consumers keep spending even as real wages lagged, and it let companies tolerate weaker volumes because pricing power and low funding costs kept margins afloat.
Those cushions are now mostly gone.
On the household side, you’re seeing it in the delinquency mix. Serious auto delinquencies at the highest since 2010. Credit card 90 day delinquencies pushing up toward GFC territory. Student loan delinquencies ripping higher now that payments are back. Commercial office delinquencies at record levels. That’s what it looks like when people are out of slack and start choosing which bills not to pay.
On the corporate side, higher rates and slower demand are colliding. Interest expense has reset upward, refinancing windows are tighter, and investors are no longer paying up for growth at any cost. Revenues are flattening while costs stay sticky. Something has to give, and what gives first is usually payroll. That’s exactly what these charts show: management teams moving from hiring freezes and quiet performance cuts to visible, headline layoffs.
You can also see the structural layer. Tech and white collar jobs are being restructured around AI and automation; retailers and warehouses are cutting as goods demand cools; government and quasi public entities are reacting to budget pressure. It’s not just one sector blowing up. It’s a broad shift from we might need this capacity to we can’t afford this capacity.
The Feedback Loop This Sets Up
Layoffs aren’t just an outcome; they become an input to the next phase of the cycle.
When over a million people are told their jobs are gone or at risk, they stop behaving like confident consumers. They cut discretionary spending, delay big purchases, run down savings faster, and lean harder on credit cards and BNPL to bridge the gap. That pushes delinquencies even higher, which tightens lending standards further, which forces more companies to cut costs, which means more layoffs.
Rising job cuts, rising delinquencies, and rising bankruptcies together are the classic late cycle signal. It’s the transition from a world where excess liquidity can paper over problems to a world where cash is scarce, credit is rationed, and everyone starts playing defense at the same time.
We are clearly past the soft landing without consequences fantasy. The labor market is finally lining up with what the credit markets and delinquency data have been whispering for a year: the buffers are gone, the cost of money is biting, and the adjustment is now happening in people’s paychecks, not just in spreadsheets.
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging:
Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 year[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro Don’t Worry, Everything’s Fine… Except the Layoffs, Bankruptcies, and Delinquencies If you strip the noise out, all of these series are saying the same thing: the labor market is finally cracking in a way that’s consistent with everything else…
s.
Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year.
At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March.
This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years.
All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years.
US layoffs are accelerating. - The Kobeissi Letter tweet
Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year.
At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March.
This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years.
All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years.
US layoffs are accelerating. - The Kobeissi Letter tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Ratio That Never Lies: Stocks Are Losing the Fight to Gold
This is the Dow to Gold ratio stretched across more than a century. It’s one of those rare charts that doesn’t scream, it whispers but the message is the same every time. When the ratio is high, stocks are massively favored over real money. When it rolls over from those highs, it usually marks the start of a long period where that relationship flips.
You can see the big turning points clearly…the late 1920s, the early 1970s, and the mid 2000s. Each time, once the ratio broke, it didn’t just drift lower. It unwound for years. Sometimes because stocks fell. Sometimes because gold ripped. Usually some mix of both. What matters is the pattern: the reversal doesn’t stop at the dotted line, it tends to keep going until sentiment, valuations, and macro conditions all reset.
Why This Moment Feels Familiar
Now we’re watching that same rollover again. The ratio has already slipped back to the levels we saw near those previous major peaks, and the macro backdrop that follows these turns is already taking shape. Growth is slowing, layoffs are rising, credit stress is spreading, and real yields are unstable. Meanwhile, central banks especially outside the U.S. are quietly accumulating gold like they don’t trust the next decade of policy one bit.
You don’t need a stock market crash or a gold mania to push this lower. You just need a world where stocks don’t deliver the dream scenario they’re priced for, and gold does what it always does when people stop trusting paper promises: quietly absorb the doubt.
My Read
My view is that we’re early and not late in this turn. I’d put a high probability that this ratio keeps sliding over the next several years, not because of drama, but because the cycle is shifting underneath it. Margins are thinning, liquidity is tightening, and real assets are becoming the safety valve again.
Could the ratio snap back up? Sure…if growth reaccelerates, deficits shrink, inflation behaves, and geopolitical risk evaporates. But that’s not the world we’re living in. The world we’re in looks a lot more like the early chapters of 1929, 1973, or 2008 a period where the old regime quietly fades and hard assets slowly regain the upper hand.
tweet
The Ratio That Never Lies: Stocks Are Losing the Fight to Gold
This is the Dow to Gold ratio stretched across more than a century. It’s one of those rare charts that doesn’t scream, it whispers but the message is the same every time. When the ratio is high, stocks are massively favored over real money. When it rolls over from those highs, it usually marks the start of a long period where that relationship flips.
You can see the big turning points clearly…the late 1920s, the early 1970s, and the mid 2000s. Each time, once the ratio broke, it didn’t just drift lower. It unwound for years. Sometimes because stocks fell. Sometimes because gold ripped. Usually some mix of both. What matters is the pattern: the reversal doesn’t stop at the dotted line, it tends to keep going until sentiment, valuations, and macro conditions all reset.
Why This Moment Feels Familiar
Now we’re watching that same rollover again. The ratio has already slipped back to the levels we saw near those previous major peaks, and the macro backdrop that follows these turns is already taking shape. Growth is slowing, layoffs are rising, credit stress is spreading, and real yields are unstable. Meanwhile, central banks especially outside the U.S. are quietly accumulating gold like they don’t trust the next decade of policy one bit.
You don’t need a stock market crash or a gold mania to push this lower. You just need a world where stocks don’t deliver the dream scenario they’re priced for, and gold does what it always does when people stop trusting paper promises: quietly absorb the doubt.
My Read
My view is that we’re early and not late in this turn. I’d put a high probability that this ratio keeps sliding over the next several years, not because of drama, but because the cycle is shifting underneath it. Margins are thinning, liquidity is tightening, and real assets are becoming the safety valve again.
Could the ratio snap back up? Sure…if growth reaccelerates, deficits shrink, inflation behaves, and geopolitical risk evaporates. But that’s not the world we’re living in. The world we’re in looks a lot more like the early chapters of 1929, 1973, or 2008 a period where the old regime quietly fades and hard assets slowly regain the upper hand.
Keep an eye on the Dow Jones to Gold Ratio.
Chart technical indicators are saying it's about to plummet. https://t.co/jx4y2rOyEv tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
RT @TOzgokmen: LARGEST CLUSTER HIGH-RISE FIRE & NO FREE FALLS:
7 towers in Hong Kong have been burning for 24 hours.
This is from grok:
"Hong Kong's Wang Fuk Court complex—where flames engulfed seven high-rise towers simultaneously—is the largest documented incident of multiple high-rise buildings burning together in a single fire event in modern history. This scale is unprecedented."
I have a better memory thaN fruit flies in that I can detect anomalies with respect to what I have seen in my life.
In comparison, World Trade Center started collapsing in a free fall after 56 mins. No other high rise or modern building ever collapsed during a fire, apart from 9/11.
tweet
RT @TOzgokmen: LARGEST CLUSTER HIGH-RISE FIRE & NO FREE FALLS:
7 towers in Hong Kong have been burning for 24 hours.
This is from grok:
"Hong Kong's Wang Fuk Court complex—where flames engulfed seven high-rise towers simultaneously—is the largest documented incident of multiple high-rise buildings burning together in a single fire event in modern history. This scale is unprecedented."
I have a better memory thaN fruit flies in that I can detect anomalies with respect to what I have seen in my life.
In comparison, World Trade Center started collapsing in a free fall after 56 mins. No other high rise or modern building ever collapsed during a fire, apart from 9/11.
Seven tall buildings burned in Hong Kong today; none collapsed in a free fall, unlike during 9/11. tweet
Offshore
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memenodes
me realizing I spent 2 years grinding a 9-5 while Sophie made $95M posting spider-man videos and bible verses 😭😭
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me realizing I spent 2 years grinding a 9-5 while Sophie made $95M posting spider-man videos and bible verses 😭😭
thankful for two years on here 🫶🏻 https://t.co/hDxtyHskVy tweet