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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL
HSBC updates OpenAI model:
HSBC’s US software and services team has today updated its OpenAI model to include the company’s $250bn rental of cloud compute from Microsoft, announced late in October, and its $38bn rental of cloud compute from Amazon announced less than a week later. The latest two deals add an extra four gigawatts of compute power to OpenAI’s requirements, bringing the contracted amount to 36 gigawatts.
Based on a total cumulative deal value of up to $1.8tn, OpenAI is heading for a data centre rental bill of about $620bn a year — though only a third of the contracted power is expected to be online by the end of this decade.
For what it’s worth, we can summarise a few of the assumptions HSBC is making for the estimates above:
Total consumer AI revenue will be $129bn by 2030, of which $87bn comes from search and $24bn comes from advertising.
OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely.
Enterprise AI will be generating $386bn in annual revenue by 2030, though OpenAI’s market share is set at 37 per cent from about 50 per cent currently. Everyone else stays more or less where they are now, market share wise.
The bottom line is that, for OpenAI, it’s nowhere close to enough.
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OpenAI $MSFT $NVDA $ORCL
HSBC updates OpenAI model:
HSBC’s US software and services team has today updated its OpenAI model to include the company’s $250bn rental of cloud compute from Microsoft, announced late in October, and its $38bn rental of cloud compute from Amazon announced less than a week later. The latest two deals add an extra four gigawatts of compute power to OpenAI’s requirements, bringing the contracted amount to 36 gigawatts.
Based on a total cumulative deal value of up to $1.8tn, OpenAI is heading for a data centre rental bill of about $620bn a year — though only a third of the contracted power is expected to be online by the end of this decade.
For what it’s worth, we can summarise a few of the assumptions HSBC is making for the estimates above:
Total consumer AI revenue will be $129bn by 2030, of which $87bn comes from search and $24bn comes from advertising.
OpenAI’s consumer market share slips to 56 per cent by 2030, from around 71 per cent this year. Anthropic and xAI are both given market shares in the single digits, a mystery “others” is assigned 22 per cent, and Google is excluded entirely.
Enterprise AI will be generating $386bn in annual revenue by 2030, though OpenAI’s market share is set at 37 per cent from about 50 per cent currently. Everyone else stays more or less where they are now, market share wise.
The bottom line is that, for OpenAI, it’s nowhere close to enough.
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WealthyReadings
The only valid take from the $GOOG x $NVDA drama is that no one cares about $AMD.
They aren't serious competition to those two giants.
As expected.
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The only valid take from the $GOOG x $NVDA drama is that no one cares about $AMD.
They aren't serious competition to those two giants.
As expected.
$AMD hot take 🔥
The deal with OpenAI is made out of weakness, not strength.
Management kowns they aren't taking shares so they went to OpenAI to use their influence to push their products within datacenters. It's marketing.
OpenAI will do it because of the 10% equity which will allow them to withdraw liquidity from a deal which didn't cost them much - more than they commitment in GPUs as the contract doens't specify that they have to be the sole buyers for the 6GW.
OpenAI will work with AMD as a core strategic compute partner to drive large-scale deployments of AMD technology starting with the AMD Instinct MI450 series and rack-scale AI solutions and extending to future generations.
They'll probably cash in to pay for the rest of their commitments - and buy more $NVDA GPUs.
That being said, we are involved in the markets to make money. And $AMD investors made a lot of it from this deal, so congrats to them!
But fundamentally... It doesn't seem to be the healthiest deal to me. tweet
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WealthyReadings
🚨 EVERYONE IS GETTING THE $META × $GOOG × $NVDA DRAMA WRONG
The reality isn't that $META chose TPUs.
The reality is that $META needs always more compute.
This situation should be the signal the market was looking for to accept that the AI trade and the compute supply constraint is real, for longer.
$META's been starving for compute for months. They built datacenters at full speed, took on debt, went to external providers, got rejected by $NBIS and probably other neoclouds.
$META cannot find compute.
And $NVDA's GPUs are getting longer to produce due to deeper personalization.
Payment delays + inventories do not translate demand issues, they translate supply chain constraints. GPUs just can’t be produced and customized fast enough.
So $META turning to $GOOG isn’t about “better infra.” It’s about $GOOG having an independent pipeline and possibly some capacity left or soon to be online, while others don’t.
This isn’t a loss for $NVDA. It’s a symptom of overwhelming compute demand.
You'll find detailed content below to go further in all the concepts shared here. Everything is data backed.
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🚨 EVERYONE IS GETTING THE $META × $GOOG × $NVDA DRAMA WRONG
The reality isn't that $META chose TPUs.
The reality is that $META needs always more compute.
This situation should be the signal the market was looking for to accept that the AI trade and the compute supply constraint is real, for longer.
$META's been starving for compute for months. They built datacenters at full speed, took on debt, went to external providers, got rejected by $NBIS and probably other neoclouds.
$META cannot find compute.
And $NVDA's GPUs are getting longer to produce due to deeper personalization.
Payment delays + inventories do not translate demand issues, they translate supply chain constraints. GPUs just can’t be produced and customized fast enough.
So $META turning to $GOOG isn’t about “better infra.” It’s about $GOOG having an independent pipeline and possibly some capacity left or soon to be online, while others don’t.
This isn’t a loss for $NVDA. It’s a symptom of overwhelming compute demand.
You'll find detailed content below to go further in all the concepts shared here. Everything is data backed.
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Wasteland Capital
Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
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Retail check 2: $ANF +38% $KSS +43% today post earnings due to major sales acceleration, solid margins & guide. Now also strong Q acceleration from $URBN.
The “weak consumer” narrative? In shambles.
Actual data winning over poor macro takes & dumb excuses for bad execution.
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones blaming “the consumer”. tweet
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Wasteland Capital (@ecommerceshares) on X
Retail check: KILLER earnings reports from $ROST and $GAP, after the blow-out from $WMT yesterday. All showed strong acceleration across the board in Q3, and guidance was even stronger. Definitely no weakness!
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
Well-managed companies killing it, dumb ones…
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App Economy Insights
How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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How They Make Money
📊 November Report is out!
100+ companies visualized
Download the full report 👇
https://t.co/g1hcWBkQcx
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App Economy Insights
Our friends at @fiscal_ai just dropped a Black Friday deal!
It’s our go-to place to research new stock ideas.
They rarely offer a discount, so we don't want our readers to miss it.
30% off all paid plans until Monday. https://t.co/QHkdbjwjqk
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Our friends at @fiscal_ai just dropped a Black Friday deal!
It’s our go-to place to research new stock ideas.
They rarely offer a discount, so we don't want our readers to miss it.
30% off all paid plans until Monday. https://t.co/QHkdbjwjqk
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: @DavidWRiggs I don’t see it as liquidity strain. It’s just the only way you can promise 10.5% when safe assets yield 3% is by taking people’s deposits and putting them into much riskier bets. This is how Alex Mashinsky went to jail who Peter Schiff is calling out here. https://t.co/n72izGtv4N
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RT @onechancefreedm: @DavidWRiggs I don’t see it as liquidity strain. It’s just the only way you can promise 10.5% when safe assets yield 3% is by taking people’s deposits and putting them into much riskier bets. This is how Alex Mashinsky went to jail who Peter Schiff is calling out here. https://t.co/n72izGtv4N
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App Economy Insights
📺 US TV Time October 2025:
Streaming 45.7% (+5.2pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.3pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.0% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (flat Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.3pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.8% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/v3buwSkAgG
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📺 US TV Time October 2025:
Streaming 45.7% (+5.2pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.3pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.0% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (flat Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.3pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.8% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/v3buwSkAgG
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EndGame Macro
The Moment the Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Collided
That red bar really does say it all. You don’t jump from paying $20–30 billion every October to paying more than $100 billion unless the whole foundation has shifted. And it has. For over a decade, the U.S. leaned on short term debt issued at or near zero, and the cost never showed up because the rate environment made it painless. But once the Fed pushed rates high and only recently cut them to the current 3.75%–4.00% range, with an effective rate around 3.88% all that cheap debt began rolling into today’s pricing. October is a heavy coupon month, so the spike shows up fast. It’s not a one off. It’s the beginning of a more expensive era.
And it’s arriving at the worst possible moment. This isn’t landing on a strong economy. It’s hitting right as the credit cycle is softening. The interest chart isn’t separate from the economy. It’s part of the same story.
The Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Are Converging
Zoom out and the recession pattern is obvious. Subprime delinquencies are back at stress levels. Office loans have never looked worse. Specialty lenders are disappearing. Banks are tightening across business and consumer credit. Corporate bankruptcies are the highest in fifteen years. Oil sliding under $60 signals weakening demand. And the bond market is flashing warnings everywhere.
These aren’t random signals. This is the chain you get when a tightening cycle goes too far. And now the blowout in interest expense is simply the government’s version of the same strain hitting households and businesses.
The debt wall makes the picture even sharper. Total debt is near $38 trillion. Roughly $11 trillion rolls within the next year. More than 20% of all Treasuries mature in fiscal 2025. By 2028, around 61% of the entire debt stock will have turned over. Over four years, about $28 trillion must be refinanced. It’s the largest repricing wave in modern history and it’s colliding with a weakening economy.
In a strong cycle, maybe higher rates were tolerable. But with delinquencies rising, credit tightening, layoffs picking up, and demand cooling, revenues will fall just as refinancing costs jump. That squeezes the government at the exact moment households and businesses are strained too.
Why This Speeds Up the Need for Cuts
This is why the current downturn accelerates the path to rate cuts. Once unemployment drifts toward the high 5% or 6%, the Fed loses the option of a gentle glide path. They get pushed into a real cutting cycle, something in the 200–300 basis point range, maybe faster if funding stress builds.
And you can already see the groundwork with the two 25 bp cuts in September and October, QT ending on December 1, and a new schedule of Treasury purchases starting December 11. Even with internal disagreement about a December cut, analysts expect another 25 bps.
Cuts will help the interest bill, but they come with tradeoffs like weaker revenues, wider deficits, and more reliance on financial repression. The challenge shifts from rates are too high to growth is too weak.
The Bottom Line
A long term fiscal concern has become a right now macro problem. The interest chart is the public sector version of the same stress building across credit, labor, lending, and corporate balance sheets. Both the private economy and the federal balance sheet are signaling the same thing: the current rate regime no longer fits the reality on the ground.
We’re already past the point where 5% policy rates make sense. The only question left is whether the Fed moves first or whether the economy forces them.
Either way, that red bar isn’t warning of trouble. It’s showing where the trouble started.
tweet
The Moment the Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Collided
That red bar really does say it all. You don’t jump from paying $20–30 billion every October to paying more than $100 billion unless the whole foundation has shifted. And it has. For over a decade, the U.S. leaned on short term debt issued at or near zero, and the cost never showed up because the rate environment made it painless. But once the Fed pushed rates high and only recently cut them to the current 3.75%–4.00% range, with an effective rate around 3.88% all that cheap debt began rolling into today’s pricing. October is a heavy coupon month, so the spike shows up fast. It’s not a one off. It’s the beginning of a more expensive era.
And it’s arriving at the worst possible moment. This isn’t landing on a strong economy. It’s hitting right as the credit cycle is softening. The interest chart isn’t separate from the economy. It’s part of the same story.
The Credit Cycle and the Debt Wall Are Converging
Zoom out and the recession pattern is obvious. Subprime delinquencies are back at stress levels. Office loans have never looked worse. Specialty lenders are disappearing. Banks are tightening across business and consumer credit. Corporate bankruptcies are the highest in fifteen years. Oil sliding under $60 signals weakening demand. And the bond market is flashing warnings everywhere.
These aren’t random signals. This is the chain you get when a tightening cycle goes too far. And now the blowout in interest expense is simply the government’s version of the same strain hitting households and businesses.
The debt wall makes the picture even sharper. Total debt is near $38 trillion. Roughly $11 trillion rolls within the next year. More than 20% of all Treasuries mature in fiscal 2025. By 2028, around 61% of the entire debt stock will have turned over. Over four years, about $28 trillion must be refinanced. It’s the largest repricing wave in modern history and it’s colliding with a weakening economy.
In a strong cycle, maybe higher rates were tolerable. But with delinquencies rising, credit tightening, layoffs picking up, and demand cooling, revenues will fall just as refinancing costs jump. That squeezes the government at the exact moment households and businesses are strained too.
Why This Speeds Up the Need for Cuts
This is why the current downturn accelerates the path to rate cuts. Once unemployment drifts toward the high 5% or 6%, the Fed loses the option of a gentle glide path. They get pushed into a real cutting cycle, something in the 200–300 basis point range, maybe faster if funding stress builds.
And you can already see the groundwork with the two 25 bp cuts in September and October, QT ending on December 1, and a new schedule of Treasury purchases starting December 11. Even with internal disagreement about a December cut, analysts expect another 25 bps.
Cuts will help the interest bill, but they come with tradeoffs like weaker revenues, wider deficits, and more reliance on financial repression. The challenge shifts from rates are too high to growth is too weak.
The Bottom Line
A long term fiscal concern has become a right now macro problem. The interest chart is the public sector version of the same stress building across credit, labor, lending, and corporate balance sheets. Both the private economy and the federal balance sheet are signaling the same thing: the current rate regime no longer fits the reality on the ground.
We’re already past the point where 5% policy rates make sense. The only question left is whether the Fed moves first or whether the economy forces them.
Either way, that red bar isn’t warning of trouble. It’s showing where the trouble started.
folks.... https://t.co/sQQ84HC6vw tweet