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WealthyReadings
$BABA cloud services continue its growth acceleration and margins expansion.
In brief: more cash generation.
No surprises for me & many $BABA bulls. https://t.co/unPi9uX7SE
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$BABA cloud services continue its growth acceleration and margins expansion.
In brief: more cash generation.
No surprises for me & many $BABA bulls. https://t.co/unPi9uX7SE
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WealthyReadings
$BABA Chinese e-commerce platform continues to accelerate revenues. Chinese consumption is re-accelerating, boosted by governmental policies.
Once again: no surprises for me & many $BABA bulls. https://t.co/1EDIRDhby8
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$BABA Chinese e-commerce platform continues to accelerate revenues. Chinese consumption is re-accelerating, boosted by governmental policies.
Once again: no surprises for me & many $BABA bulls. https://t.co/1EDIRDhby8
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EndGame Macro
The Recession Has Already Started And Here’s the Proof No One Wants to Look At
This isn’t a doom thread, it’s the actual sequence a credit driven recession follows, and today’s data fits that playbook almost perfectly. These cycles don’t hit all at once; they fall like dominos. And once the first few tip, the rest usually follow.
Here’s how that chain reaction works, and where current numbers place us.
Subprime Cracks First
Serious auto loan delinquencies are now around 5%, basically back to the 5.3% GFC peak. Student loan delinquencies sit near 9.4%, far above the 6.5% peak in 2009. Multiple subprime auto lenders have failed or stopped originating. That’s always the first break.
Collateral Starts Failing
Office CMBS delinquencies have hit 11.8%, the highest ever recorded. Bank CRE delinquencies remain near 1.5%, but the stress is concentrated in office loans with brutal refinancing math. Auto collateral is weakening. Specialty lenders and suppliers are folding around the edges.
Specialty Finance Blows Up
Tricolor is bankrupt. PrimaLend is gone. Automotive Credit Corp stopped originating. First Brands collapsed with $10B+ liabilities. When these non bank lenders vanish, entire credit channels freeze long before banks make official moves.
Banks Tighten Broadly
This is where credit stress becomes a real economy problem. Banks pull lines, raise standards, cut approvals, and tighten across CRE and consumer credit. Small businesses lose financing. Households can’t qualify. CRE borrowers can’t roll debt. We’re entering this phase now.
Unemployment Turns Up
Labor always lags credit. Announced job cuts have already exceeded 1 million, one of the worst years since 2009. Unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, rising slowly but steadily, exactly how recessions begin before they become official.
Corporate Stress Spreads
Around 655 large corporate bankruptcies have been filed through October, the highest in 15 years. Industrial and consumer discretionary names are getting hit. This is the middle innings of the downturn.
Funding Markets Send Warnings
The 2 year (3.5%) is now below Fed funds (3.75–4%), a clear sign policy is too tight. The curve has shifted into a pre recession bull steepener. Five year breakevens are 2.3%, near the bottom of their post COVID range. Crude is under $60, down almost 20% YTD. These are early tremors in the plumbing.
The Fed Gets Forced to Move
If unemployment heads toward 6% next year, which this setup typically produces the Fed’s gentle drift to 3% over years collapses. With rising joblessness, slowing inflation, and swelling deficits, real rates can’t stay tight. A 200–300 bp cut cycle is the realistic path. If funding stress or deflation bites, cuts closer to zero aren’t dramatic, they’re math.
Housing and Markets
Mortgage rates drifting from the low 6s into the mid 5s over the next year is likely, with high 4s possible if unemployment rises. But lower rates won’t stop prices from falling. A 10–20% national decline over a couple of years is reasonable, deeper in the most levered metros.
Markets follow three acts: denial then earnings reality and then policy panic. Historically that delivers a 20–30% drawdown before liquidity ignites the rebound.
The Bottom Line
Combine GFC style delinquencies, record office stress, 650+ bankruptcies, 1M+ layoffs, rising unemployment, a bull steepening curve, falling breakevens, and sub $60 oil and you don’t get a soft landing. You get a recession already moving.
The real question now whether we get a deep but manageable downturn, or a sharper deflation scare before policymakers finally step in.
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The Recession Has Already Started And Here’s the Proof No One Wants to Look At
This isn’t a doom thread, it’s the actual sequence a credit driven recession follows, and today’s data fits that playbook almost perfectly. These cycles don’t hit all at once; they fall like dominos. And once the first few tip, the rest usually follow.
Here’s how that chain reaction works, and where current numbers place us.
Subprime Cracks First
Serious auto loan delinquencies are now around 5%, basically back to the 5.3% GFC peak. Student loan delinquencies sit near 9.4%, far above the 6.5% peak in 2009. Multiple subprime auto lenders have failed or stopped originating. That’s always the first break.
Collateral Starts Failing
Office CMBS delinquencies have hit 11.8%, the highest ever recorded. Bank CRE delinquencies remain near 1.5%, but the stress is concentrated in office loans with brutal refinancing math. Auto collateral is weakening. Specialty lenders and suppliers are folding around the edges.
Specialty Finance Blows Up
Tricolor is bankrupt. PrimaLend is gone. Automotive Credit Corp stopped originating. First Brands collapsed with $10B+ liabilities. When these non bank lenders vanish, entire credit channels freeze long before banks make official moves.
Banks Tighten Broadly
This is where credit stress becomes a real economy problem. Banks pull lines, raise standards, cut approvals, and tighten across CRE and consumer credit. Small businesses lose financing. Households can’t qualify. CRE borrowers can’t roll debt. We’re entering this phase now.
Unemployment Turns Up
Labor always lags credit. Announced job cuts have already exceeded 1 million, one of the worst years since 2009. Unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, rising slowly but steadily, exactly how recessions begin before they become official.
Corporate Stress Spreads
Around 655 large corporate bankruptcies have been filed through October, the highest in 15 years. Industrial and consumer discretionary names are getting hit. This is the middle innings of the downturn.
Funding Markets Send Warnings
The 2 year (3.5%) is now below Fed funds (3.75–4%), a clear sign policy is too tight. The curve has shifted into a pre recession bull steepener. Five year breakevens are 2.3%, near the bottom of their post COVID range. Crude is under $60, down almost 20% YTD. These are early tremors in the plumbing.
The Fed Gets Forced to Move
If unemployment heads toward 6% next year, which this setup typically produces the Fed’s gentle drift to 3% over years collapses. With rising joblessness, slowing inflation, and swelling deficits, real rates can’t stay tight. A 200–300 bp cut cycle is the realistic path. If funding stress or deflation bites, cuts closer to zero aren’t dramatic, they’re math.
Housing and Markets
Mortgage rates drifting from the low 6s into the mid 5s over the next year is likely, with high 4s possible if unemployment rises. But lower rates won’t stop prices from falling. A 10–20% national decline over a couple of years is reasonable, deeper in the most levered metros.
Markets follow three acts: denial then earnings reality and then policy panic. Historically that delivers a 20–30% drawdown before liquidity ignites the rebound.
The Bottom Line
Combine GFC style delinquencies, record office stress, 650+ bankruptcies, 1M+ layoffs, rising unemployment, a bull steepening curve, falling breakevens, and sub $60 oil and you don’t get a soft landing. You get a recession already moving.
The real question now whether we get a deep but manageable downturn, or a sharper deflation scare before policymakers finally step in.
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AkhenOsiris
$GENI
Genius Sports today announced a global partnership with Publicis Sports to reshape the future of fan engagement through FANHub, Genius Sports’ proprietary sports advertising platform.
Through FANHub, Publicis Sports clients will gain access to the most advanced sports advertising technologies available. This AI-driven platform enables brands to connect with specific, verified fans at peak moments of passion and attention, delivering messaging that aligns seamlessly with in-game action. By leveraging Genius Sports’ proprietary data signals, Publicis Sports further strengthens its rich data sets, enabling teams to activate real-time campaigns that move in sync with the game-turning key moments of drama, triumph, and surprise into powerful opportunities for brand engagement and emotional connection.
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$GENI
Genius Sports today announced a global partnership with Publicis Sports to reshape the future of fan engagement through FANHub, Genius Sports’ proprietary sports advertising platform.
Through FANHub, Publicis Sports clients will gain access to the most advanced sports advertising technologies available. This AI-driven platform enables brands to connect with specific, verified fans at peak moments of passion and attention, delivering messaging that aligns seamlessly with in-game action. By leveraging Genius Sports’ proprietary data signals, Publicis Sports further strengthens its rich data sets, enabling teams to activate real-time campaigns that move in sync with the game-turning key moments of drama, triumph, and surprise into powerful opportunities for brand engagement and emotional connection.
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EndGame Macro
The ADP Pulse Just Flashed Its First Real Warning
The latest ADP Pulse number is an important shift in the labor story. For the four weeks ending November 8th, private employers net cut about 13,500 jobs per week, which means the job market has slipped from merely cooling to actually contracting at the margins. ADP’s data runs on real time payrolls, so it often picks up turns before the official reports do. When hiring freezes quietly become small, steady job losses, it’s usually a sign that businesses are feeling real pressure, not in a headline grabbing way, but in the decisions they make inside budgeting meetings, headcount conversations, and department level planning.
Put alongside with over a million layoffs this year, unemployment drifting into the mid 4s, rising delinquencies, and an uptick in large corporate bankruptcies and this reading is part of the same broader turn. It signals a labor market that’s losing resilience and no longer absorbing the strain from tighter credit and weaker demand. If this continues, it typically shows up next as softer payroll prints, more caution from businesses, and consumers pulling back. This raises the odds that the slowdown is already underway and that policy will have to respond sooner than the current narrative admits.
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The ADP Pulse Just Flashed Its First Real Warning
The latest ADP Pulse number is an important shift in the labor story. For the four weeks ending November 8th, private employers net cut about 13,500 jobs per week, which means the job market has slipped from merely cooling to actually contracting at the margins. ADP’s data runs on real time payrolls, so it often picks up turns before the official reports do. When hiring freezes quietly become small, steady job losses, it’s usually a sign that businesses are feeling real pressure, not in a headline grabbing way, but in the decisions they make inside budgeting meetings, headcount conversations, and department level planning.
Put alongside with over a million layoffs this year, unemployment drifting into the mid 4s, rising delinquencies, and an uptick in large corporate bankruptcies and this reading is part of the same broader turn. It signals a labor market that’s losing resilience and no longer absorbing the strain from tighter credit and weaker demand. If this continues, it typically shows up next as softer payroll prints, more caution from businesses, and consumers pulling back. This raises the odds that the slowdown is already underway and that policy will have to respond sooner than the current narrative admits.
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EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) on X
The ADP Pulse Just Flashed Its First Real Warning
The latest ADP Pulse number is an important shift in the labor story. For the four weeks ending November 8th, private employers net cut about 13,500 jobs per week, which means the job market has slipped from…
The latest ADP Pulse number is an important shift in the labor story. For the four weeks ending November 8th, private employers net cut about 13,500 jobs per week, which means the job market has slipped from…
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EndGame Macro
David Levenson Explains the Hidden Mechanics Behind the GFC Housing Shock And Why Homeowners Won
This diagram is basically a map of how the housing finance system looked during the Great Financial Crisis and who supplied the mortgage money, where the payments flowed back, and why homeowners who survived the bust ended up in a far stronger position than the banks that lent to them.
On the left you’ve got the main sources of mortgage credit. Fannie and Freddie made up roughly half the market. Big banks like JPMorgan, Wells, Bank of America, and Citi added about a quarter. Regionals contributed another chunk, and the smaller lenders filled in the rest. All of that money funneled into the homes, and on the way back you see the cash flows: monthly payments, refinancing waves, and then the moment when lenders started trying to slow down prepayments because falling rates were hammering their returns.
The Real Story: Rates Collapsed, and Homeowners Benefited
The red 10% → 0% arrow is the heart of the story. As the crisis unfolded, interest rates didn’t just fall…they cratered. When rates drop like that, the entire math of homeownership shifts. Inflation cooled, disposable income sagged a bit, but the real cost of carrying a mortgage fell much faster. Anyone who kept their house was suddenly able to refinance into dramatically cheaper debt.
And that’s why, on the right, you see the note that real home prices rose 77% coming out of the crisis. Despite the pain of 2008–2010, the combination of ultra low rates and stable incomes created a huge tailwind for homeowners. Meanwhile, lenders took losses, got paid back early on higher yield loans, and were forced to reinvest at much lower returns.
So the quiet message in this chart is that the GFC didn’t just break banks, it shifted wealth toward households who stayed in their homes. When rates go from painfully high to basically zero, the balance of power tilts toward the borrower, not the lender. This is the plumbing behind that outcome.
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David Levenson Explains the Hidden Mechanics Behind the GFC Housing Shock And Why Homeowners Won
This diagram is basically a map of how the housing finance system looked during the Great Financial Crisis and who supplied the mortgage money, where the payments flowed back, and why homeowners who survived the bust ended up in a far stronger position than the banks that lent to them.
On the left you’ve got the main sources of mortgage credit. Fannie and Freddie made up roughly half the market. Big banks like JPMorgan, Wells, Bank of America, and Citi added about a quarter. Regionals contributed another chunk, and the smaller lenders filled in the rest. All of that money funneled into the homes, and on the way back you see the cash flows: monthly payments, refinancing waves, and then the moment when lenders started trying to slow down prepayments because falling rates were hammering their returns.
The Real Story: Rates Collapsed, and Homeowners Benefited
The red 10% → 0% arrow is the heart of the story. As the crisis unfolded, interest rates didn’t just fall…they cratered. When rates drop like that, the entire math of homeownership shifts. Inflation cooled, disposable income sagged a bit, but the real cost of carrying a mortgage fell much faster. Anyone who kept their house was suddenly able to refinance into dramatically cheaper debt.
And that’s why, on the right, you see the note that real home prices rose 77% coming out of the crisis. Despite the pain of 2008–2010, the combination of ultra low rates and stable incomes created a huge tailwind for homeowners. Meanwhile, lenders took losses, got paid back early on higher yield loans, and were forced to reinvest at much lower returns.
So the quiet message in this chart is that the GFC didn’t just break banks, it shifted wealth toward households who stayed in their homes. When rates go from painfully high to basically zero, the balance of power tilts toward the borrower, not the lender. This is the plumbing behind that outcome.
https://t.co/FJxKHGCRND tweet
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Quartr
The most recognized color in the world? Coca-Cola red.
Yesterday, our friends at Acquired dropped their 4h+ episode on Coca-Cola. Don't miss it. https://t.co/KNZ10Lqm2F
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The most recognized color in the world? Coca-Cola red.
Yesterday, our friends at Acquired dropped their 4h+ episode on Coca-Cola. Don't miss it. https://t.co/KNZ10Lqm2F
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EndGame Macro
More Diplomas, Lower Scores: What This Chart Really Says About Our Schools
You’ve got two lines moving in opposite directions over the last fifty years. The high school graduation rate climbs steadily from the low 70s into the mid 80s. More students are getting diplomas than ever. At the same time, the average SAT score drifts down, especially over the last decade. So on paper, we’re producing more graduates but their performance on a national academic benchmark is weakening.
That tension is the whole story. A higher share of kids finishing school is a good thing in theory. But when that rise is paired with falling test performance, it’s hard not to ask what exactly the diploma is measuring anymore.
Why This Is Probably Happening
Part of it is simply a bigger funnel. In the 70s or 80s, dropping out was far more common and fewer students even bothered to take the SAT. As graduation rates rise and college becomes the assumed next step, you pull a wider mix of students into the testing pool. Anytime you broaden the sample, the average tends to fall unless the entire system gets meaningfully stronger. There’s not much evidence of that here.
The other piece is structural pressure. Schools are judged heavily on graduation rates, not on whether students can write well, handle math, or think critically. That dynamic invites grade inflation, credit recovery shortcuts, easier coursework, and a softer push on standards. You can raise graduation numbers without raising actual mastery and this chart looks like the long-run outcome of that tradeoff.
Add in the modern learning environment with phones, fragmented attention, less deep reading, more stress at home, and the rise of test optional admissions and you get a recipe where finishing high school is easier, but performing well on a demanding standardized test becomes harder.
We’ve made the credential easier to earn without making the underlying skills stronger. The chart isn’t saying kids are less capable, it’s showing how the system has changed what it rewards.
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More Diplomas, Lower Scores: What This Chart Really Says About Our Schools
You’ve got two lines moving in opposite directions over the last fifty years. The high school graduation rate climbs steadily from the low 70s into the mid 80s. More students are getting diplomas than ever. At the same time, the average SAT score drifts down, especially over the last decade. So on paper, we’re producing more graduates but their performance on a national academic benchmark is weakening.
That tension is the whole story. A higher share of kids finishing school is a good thing in theory. But when that rise is paired with falling test performance, it’s hard not to ask what exactly the diploma is measuring anymore.
Why This Is Probably Happening
Part of it is simply a bigger funnel. In the 70s or 80s, dropping out was far more common and fewer students even bothered to take the SAT. As graduation rates rise and college becomes the assumed next step, you pull a wider mix of students into the testing pool. Anytime you broaden the sample, the average tends to fall unless the entire system gets meaningfully stronger. There’s not much evidence of that here.
The other piece is structural pressure. Schools are judged heavily on graduation rates, not on whether students can write well, handle math, or think critically. That dynamic invites grade inflation, credit recovery shortcuts, easier coursework, and a softer push on standards. You can raise graduation numbers without raising actual mastery and this chart looks like the long-run outcome of that tradeoff.
Add in the modern learning environment with phones, fragmented attention, less deep reading, more stress at home, and the rise of test optional admissions and you get a recipe where finishing high school is easier, but performing well on a demanding standardized test becomes harder.
We’ve made the credential easier to earn without making the underlying skills stronger. The chart isn’t saying kids are less capable, it’s showing how the system has changed what it rewards.
What’s the point of more people being educated if the education standards deteriorate? https://t.co/lkt79MqadU tweet
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App Economy Insights
$BABA Alibaba Q2 FY26 (Sept. quarter):
☁️ Cloud accelerated +34% Y/Y to $5.6B.
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $34.8B ($0.6B beat).
• Excluding disposals, revenue +15% Y/Y.
• Operating margin 2% (-13pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPADS $0.61 ($0.20 miss). https://t.co/QE80Lj3PXL
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$BABA Alibaba Q2 FY26 (Sept. quarter):
☁️ Cloud accelerated +34% Y/Y to $5.6B.
• Revenue +5% Y/Y to $34.8B ($0.6B beat).
• Excluding disposals, revenue +15% Y/Y.
• Operating margin 2% (-13pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPADS $0.61 ($0.20 miss). https://t.co/QE80Lj3PXL
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EndGame Macro
If You Understand This Map, You Understand Africa’s Future
If you look at Africa through this kind of population density map, you start seeing something deeper than dots on a continent. You’re looking at where people choose to live when left to their own incentives, where water is reliable, where food can be grown, where trade naturally flows, where elevation cuts the heat, and where a day’s work has the best chance of paying off.
And once you know how to read that pattern, the whole continent reorganizes itself in front of you.
Instead of 54 countries, you see three massive demographic engines forming on their own terms.
Africa’s Three Natural Power Corridors
The West African corridor From Abidjan to Lagos and inland to Kano
That glowing belt is one of the most important facts in the 21st century global economy. Tens of millions live along that coastal strip because that’s where the rainfall is kinder, the port access is natural, the soil is usable, and the informal economy is unbelievably dense. If governance stays even halfway functional, this region becomes one of the biggest urban networks on Earth.
The Nile Horn And Great Lakes Arc
The bright spine along the Nile, the Ethiopian highlands, and around Lake Victoria is a 4,000 year old trade corridor that only looks new on a modern map. People settle here because altitude cools the air, rivers solve the water problem, and fertile land makes population density sustainable. It’s one of the few regions in Africa where population density and food production can actually scale together.
Southern Africa’s triangle: Gauteng, Coastal KZN, Cape Town
This cluster glows not because the land is perfect, but because the industrial base is. Johannesburg Pretoria is the economic engine, Durban is the shipping artery, and Cape Town is the brain trust. This region has the best infrastructure to population ratio on the continent, which is why it holds so much of Africa’s formal GDP.
My Read
The glowing clusters are Africa’s economic destiny zones. They tell you where transportation networks want to develop, where capital naturally gravitates, and where political stability pays the highest dividends.
The harsh truth is if these regions get reliable electricity, functioning ports, and even moderately effective governance, Africa will experience one of the largest urban demographic booms in human history.
If they don’t and if power grids crumble, food prices spike, or climate pressure gets worse these same density belts become engines of migration, instability, and political volatility.
Population density is not just about where people live. It’s a map of future opportunity, future conflict, and future capital flows.
And this map is telling you exactly where Africa’s next 30 years will be decided.
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If You Understand This Map, You Understand Africa’s Future
If you look at Africa through this kind of population density map, you start seeing something deeper than dots on a continent. You’re looking at where people choose to live when left to their own incentives, where water is reliable, where food can be grown, where trade naturally flows, where elevation cuts the heat, and where a day’s work has the best chance of paying off.
And once you know how to read that pattern, the whole continent reorganizes itself in front of you.
Instead of 54 countries, you see three massive demographic engines forming on their own terms.
Africa’s Three Natural Power Corridors
The West African corridor From Abidjan to Lagos and inland to Kano
That glowing belt is one of the most important facts in the 21st century global economy. Tens of millions live along that coastal strip because that’s where the rainfall is kinder, the port access is natural, the soil is usable, and the informal economy is unbelievably dense. If governance stays even halfway functional, this region becomes one of the biggest urban networks on Earth.
The Nile Horn And Great Lakes Arc
The bright spine along the Nile, the Ethiopian highlands, and around Lake Victoria is a 4,000 year old trade corridor that only looks new on a modern map. People settle here because altitude cools the air, rivers solve the water problem, and fertile land makes population density sustainable. It’s one of the few regions in Africa where population density and food production can actually scale together.
Southern Africa’s triangle: Gauteng, Coastal KZN, Cape Town
This cluster glows not because the land is perfect, but because the industrial base is. Johannesburg Pretoria is the economic engine, Durban is the shipping artery, and Cape Town is the brain trust. This region has the best infrastructure to population ratio on the continent, which is why it holds so much of Africa’s formal GDP.
My Read
The glowing clusters are Africa’s economic destiny zones. They tell you where transportation networks want to develop, where capital naturally gravitates, and where political stability pays the highest dividends.
The harsh truth is if these regions get reliable electricity, functioning ports, and even moderately effective governance, Africa will experience one of the largest urban demographic booms in human history.
If they don’t and if power grids crumble, food prices spike, or climate pressure gets worse these same density belts become engines of migration, instability, and political volatility.
Population density is not just about where people live. It’s a map of future opportunity, future conflict, and future capital flows.
And this map is telling you exactly where Africa’s next 30 years will be decided.
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WealthyReadings
🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
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🔥 $BABA quarter just confirmed the 2 pillars of my bull case, the ones I shared below $80 more than a year ago.
1️⃣ China is entering its AI transformation.
2️⃣ Household consumption is set to accelerate.
Both were highlighted as priorities for China’s next 5-year plan. And unlike Europe, when China sets a priority… they execute with focus and aggressivity.
I was bullish below $80.
I was buying then.
I’m still bullish.
I’m still buying.
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