WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.
And it is a very stupid trend.
Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.
It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.
Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.
Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.
He's better than 99.9% of us.
Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.
He's not someone to ignore.
tweet
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.
And it is a very stupid trend.
Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.
It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.
Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.
Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.
He's better than 99.9% of us.
Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.
He's not someone to ignore.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
OpenAI:
Jony Ive — the iconic Apple designer who united with OpenAI to create physical AI devices — revealed to longtime friend Laurene Powell Jobs in an onstage interview that his stealth project, already in prototype, will be unveiled within two years.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during a joint interview at an Emerson Collective event that Ive's design is elegantly simple, with a touch of whimsy — which sounds very Apple-like.
tweet
OpenAI:
Jony Ive — the iconic Apple designer who united with OpenAI to create physical AI devices — revealed to longtime friend Laurene Powell Jobs in an onstage interview that his stealth project, already in prototype, will be unveiled within two years.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during a joint interview at an Emerson Collective event that Ive's design is elegantly simple, with a touch of whimsy — which sounds very Apple-like.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Coming Twist in Housing: Lower Rates, But No Price Boom
This chart is basically telling us the housing market’s run into a wall. When you have almost 40% more sellers than buyers, it means the pool of people willing or able to buy at today’s prices and today’s mortgage rates has dried up. Not because people don’t want homes, but because the monthly payment math has stretched as far as it can go. Sellers are slowly returning because life forces them to: job changes, relocations, divorce, investors unwinding. Buyers, on the other hand, are hitting their limit.
Where Rates Would Need To Go
A 6.3% mortgage doesn’t feel buyable to most households. You might get some activity in the mid 5’s, but real, broad based demand usually needs something in the 4s. That’s the psychological line where people say, Okay, maybe this is workable again. But the problem is simple…if rates fall and prices jump, nothing really improves. You’re still stuck with the same unaffordable payment, just repackaged differently.
Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Save This Market
And this is where my own view comes in. I think unemployment is going to rise and the broader economy is going to weaken from here through 2026. When people feel less secure about their jobs, they don’t rush into housing just because rates tick lower. They pull back. They wait. They protect cash. And that shift in psychology keeps demand capped, even in a falling rate environment.
In a world where mortgage rates fall but the labor market softens, you don’t get the usual price surge that comes with cheaper financing. Instead, you get prices that either stay flat or drift down because the one force stronger than low rates is fear of losing income.
That’s the only scenario where home prices don’t rise as rates fall…lower borrowing costs colliding with a weakening economy and rising unemployment.
And I think that’s exactly where we’re headed.
tweet
The Coming Twist in Housing: Lower Rates, But No Price Boom
This chart is basically telling us the housing market’s run into a wall. When you have almost 40% more sellers than buyers, it means the pool of people willing or able to buy at today’s prices and today’s mortgage rates has dried up. Not because people don’t want homes, but because the monthly payment math has stretched as far as it can go. Sellers are slowly returning because life forces them to: job changes, relocations, divorce, investors unwinding. Buyers, on the other hand, are hitting their limit.
Where Rates Would Need To Go
A 6.3% mortgage doesn’t feel buyable to most households. You might get some activity in the mid 5’s, but real, broad based demand usually needs something in the 4s. That’s the psychological line where people say, Okay, maybe this is workable again. But the problem is simple…if rates fall and prices jump, nothing really improves. You’re still stuck with the same unaffordable payment, just repackaged differently.
Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Save This Market
And this is where my own view comes in. I think unemployment is going to rise and the broader economy is going to weaken from here through 2026. When people feel less secure about their jobs, they don’t rush into housing just because rates tick lower. They pull back. They wait. They protect cash. And that shift in psychology keeps demand capped, even in a falling rate environment.
In a world where mortgage rates fall but the labor market softens, you don’t get the usual price surge that comes with cheaper financing. Instead, you get prices that either stay flat or drift down because the one force stronger than low rates is fear of losing income.
That’s the only scenario where home prices don’t rise as rates fall…lower borrowing costs colliding with a weakening economy and rising unemployment.
And I think that’s exactly where we’re headed.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.
And it is a very stupid trend.
Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.
It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.
Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.
Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.
He's better than 99.9% of us.
Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.
He's not someone to ignore.
tweet
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.
And it is a very stupid trend.
Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.
It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.
Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.
Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.
He's better than 99.9% of us.
Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.
He's not someone to ignore.
JUST IN 🚨: Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 market crashes, has launched a Substack for $379/year tweet
Offshore
Video
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
What have I done 😂
tweet
What have I done 😂
Bill Ackman was on Fox Business this week saying “very high-quality businesses are showing up at very attractive levels”
He added that Pershing Square is approaching 15% cash & is “finishing due diligence on a company we’ve really wanted to own for years — now available at a bargain price”
Over the last several weeks, I’ve shared that many quality compounders are trading at the lower end of their 3-year valuation ranges and look attractive relative to their growth, durability, & moats
Before going any further I want to be clear: 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞
I simply enjoy analyzing great investors and their frameworks, & @BillAckman has been one I’ve respected for years
Now lets guess 🤔
I believe the company is potentially Mastercard $MA & here’s why:
@KoyfinCharts recently shared Bill’s investment principles & $MA checks off every box
𝟏. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬
✅Simple predictable FCF generative business
• $MA runs a toll-road-like payments network along with value added services & solutions & maintains >50% FCF margins
✅Formiddable barriers to entry
• $MA operates in a duopoly — a new competitor would need global merchant onboarding, bank integrations, regulators’ approval, & brand trust, among other things
✅Limited exposure to extrinsic factors that we cannot control
• $MA revenue is very stable especially over long periods & the company does not lend money, so it has no direct credit or balance-sheet risk
✅Generally low financial leverage levels
• $MA uses modest conservative leverage with strong interest-coverage ratios & stable cash generation
✅Minimal capital markets dependency
• Given its predictable recurring-like FCF, $MA is a self-funded business
✅Typically highly liquid mid & large cap companies
• $MA has a $488B market cap
𝟐. 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
✅Fair price as is but a substantial discount to optimized value
• $MA trades for 29x (lower end of its 3 year range & a PEG <2.00)tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Jared Moskowitz just filed new stock trades.
He bought up to $30K of stock in Taiwan Semicondcutor, $TSMC.
Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/56WhL0mZgT
tweet
BREAKING: Representative Jared Moskowitz just filed new stock trades.
He bought up to $30K of stock in Taiwan Semicondcutor, $TSMC.
Moskowitz sits on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/56WhL0mZgT
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
This Chart Says More About the Economy Than Any Headline
When you look at this lumber chart, the surprising thing isn’t just that prices are falling, it’s how indifferent the market is to the tariff backdrop. A new 10% tariff kicked in on October 14th, 2025, and Canadian lumber is effectively facing a 35% tariff load. In a healthy, growing economy, that kind of supply side tax would have pushed prices sharply higher. But instead, lumber futures slid right back to the same lows we saw a year ago and are now sitting on a clear double bottom.
That price action tells you everything: the market doesn’t believe demand is strong enough for tariffs to matter. Businesses are the ones who actually pay tariffs upfront, and when the consumer is slowing down, those businesses can’t pass the cost along. So futures don’t price in higher costs ahead, they price in weaker demand ahead.
Why Demand Is Overpowering the Tariff Story
The best confirmation comes from the ground level: Home Depot’s own language. They’re saying customers are fatigued, pulling back from home improvement projects, and trading down to cheaper materials. That’s exactly the kind of environment where lumber struggles regardless of tariffs. Big projects get delayed. Renovations get scaled back. Builders order only what they must, not what they want.
When demand is rolling over like that, even a tariff shock gets absorbed by distributors and mills rather than passed on to buyers and the futures market sees that instantly.
How the Chart Fits the Cycle
That’s why this chart looks the way it does. Lumber isn’t responding to the headline or the policy change. It’s responding to the psychological turn in housing and renovation. Futures traders are asking one simple question…how much lumber will America actually need in 2026 if consumers remain cautious and the economic outlook softens?
And their answer is written right there in the price…less than before.
So the chart isn’t ignoring the tariffs. it’s overriding them. It’s saying the slowdown in construction, the hesitation from homeowners, and the fatigue that Home Depot is calling out are stronger forces than tax policy. In a tight demand environment, tariffs don’t lift prices. They just compress margins upstream while futures drift lower toward whatever level the market thinks matches the new, weaker reality.
Credit to @Barchart
tweet
This Chart Says More About the Economy Than Any Headline
When you look at this lumber chart, the surprising thing isn’t just that prices are falling, it’s how indifferent the market is to the tariff backdrop. A new 10% tariff kicked in on October 14th, 2025, and Canadian lumber is effectively facing a 35% tariff load. In a healthy, growing economy, that kind of supply side tax would have pushed prices sharply higher. But instead, lumber futures slid right back to the same lows we saw a year ago and are now sitting on a clear double bottom.
That price action tells you everything: the market doesn’t believe demand is strong enough for tariffs to matter. Businesses are the ones who actually pay tariffs upfront, and when the consumer is slowing down, those businesses can’t pass the cost along. So futures don’t price in higher costs ahead, they price in weaker demand ahead.
Why Demand Is Overpowering the Tariff Story
The best confirmation comes from the ground level: Home Depot’s own language. They’re saying customers are fatigued, pulling back from home improvement projects, and trading down to cheaper materials. That’s exactly the kind of environment where lumber struggles regardless of tariffs. Big projects get delayed. Renovations get scaled back. Builders order only what they must, not what they want.
When demand is rolling over like that, even a tariff shock gets absorbed by distributors and mills rather than passed on to buyers and the futures market sees that instantly.
How the Chart Fits the Cycle
That’s why this chart looks the way it does. Lumber isn’t responding to the headline or the policy change. It’s responding to the psychological turn in housing and renovation. Futures traders are asking one simple question…how much lumber will America actually need in 2026 if consumers remain cautious and the economic outlook softens?
And their answer is written right there in the price…less than before.
So the chart isn’t ignoring the tariffs. it’s overriding them. It’s saying the slowdown in construction, the hesitation from homeowners, and the fatigue that Home Depot is calling out are stronger forces than tax policy. In a tight demand environment, tariffs don’t lift prices. They just compress margins upstream while futures drift lower toward whatever level the market thinks matches the new, weaker reality.
Credit to @Barchart
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Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
$GOOG has now risen 14% since this post, while the market has fallen.
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$GOOG has now risen 14% since this post, while the market has fallen.
BREAKING: Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway just filed a portfolio update.
They opened a new $4.3B position in Google, $GOOG.
Full holdings up on Quiver, link below. https://t.co/RoJTmS5xhJ tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Markets are now giving a 75% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. https://t.co/IZiud12Z1q
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Markets are now giving a 75% chance of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting. https://t.co/IZiud12Z1q
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
The College Promise Is Breaking Down
What’s happening in the job market right now is the unraveling of a story we were all told for decades. A record share of unemployed Americans now have college degrees. Recent grads are running unemployment rates higher than the national average. And the shock for a lot of people is that this isn’t happening in soft majors, it’s happening in fields that were once considered bulletproof.
College hasn’t kept up with the world it’s supposed to prepare people for. Schools expanded enrollment, raised prices, and kept telling students that any degree was a ticket to stability. But employers stopped treating degrees as a guarantee. The economy shifted, automation accelerated, and suddenly a lot of credentialed young adults are entering a market where the entry level jobs that used to absorb them just aren’t there anymore.
How Tech Degrees Lost Their Aura
For years, computer science and computer engineering were the safest bets in higher education. These were the majors where you graduated on Friday and started your job on Monday. Then the world changed. Tech massively over hired during the pandemic boom and spent the next two years cutting staff and freezing junior roles. At the same time, AI began swallowing the exact kind of grunt work that used to justify hiring large cohorts of new engineers. And because remote work went global, a new grad in the U.S. is now competing with equally strong talent abroad at a fraction of the cost.
The result is a strange moment where the degrees that once symbolized certainty now come with real risk. The demand for great engineers isn’t gone but the path in is narrower, steeper, and far more selective. The middle of the market has been hollowed out.
Where Parents Should Focus Now
If your kid is thinking about college, the question you should be asking is “what kinds of work will still need a human being in ten years?”
Jobs that involve touching the real world…bodies, buildings, energy systems, machines aren’t going anywhere. Healthcare roles, skilled trades, infrastructure work, and anything tied to physical safety or compliance will stay in demand. AI can help these jobs, but it can’t replace the hands, judgment, and accountability behind them.
Then there are the jobs that rely on deeply human skills like empathy, trust, relationship building. Mental health work, education, certain advisory roles, coaching, and specialized care. These are fields where people don’t want an algorithm; they want another human being.
And finally, jobs that own problems, not tasks. AI can handle tasks. It still struggles with messy realities: coordinating teams, managing crises, understanding context, balancing tradeoffs. Operations, logistics, product work, cybersecurity, and technical sales fall into this category.
The Takeaway
College can still be the right move. But the days of go anywhere, study anything, and everything will work out are over. The world is moving too fast for that. If anything, the labor market is telling us what colleges won’t that is that the value isn’t in the credential, it’s in the skills you leave with and whether those skills fit the shape of the economy that’s actually emerging.
This moment is a sign that the old pipeline has broken, and families need a new way to think about education, work, and what it means to build a durable future.
tweet
The College Promise Is Breaking Down
What’s happening in the job market right now is the unraveling of a story we were all told for decades. A record share of unemployed Americans now have college degrees. Recent grads are running unemployment rates higher than the national average. And the shock for a lot of people is that this isn’t happening in soft majors, it’s happening in fields that were once considered bulletproof.
College hasn’t kept up with the world it’s supposed to prepare people for. Schools expanded enrollment, raised prices, and kept telling students that any degree was a ticket to stability. But employers stopped treating degrees as a guarantee. The economy shifted, automation accelerated, and suddenly a lot of credentialed young adults are entering a market where the entry level jobs that used to absorb them just aren’t there anymore.
How Tech Degrees Lost Their Aura
For years, computer science and computer engineering were the safest bets in higher education. These were the majors where you graduated on Friday and started your job on Monday. Then the world changed. Tech massively over hired during the pandemic boom and spent the next two years cutting staff and freezing junior roles. At the same time, AI began swallowing the exact kind of grunt work that used to justify hiring large cohorts of new engineers. And because remote work went global, a new grad in the U.S. is now competing with equally strong talent abroad at a fraction of the cost.
The result is a strange moment where the degrees that once symbolized certainty now come with real risk. The demand for great engineers isn’t gone but the path in is narrower, steeper, and far more selective. The middle of the market has been hollowed out.
Where Parents Should Focus Now
If your kid is thinking about college, the question you should be asking is “what kinds of work will still need a human being in ten years?”
Jobs that involve touching the real world…bodies, buildings, energy systems, machines aren’t going anywhere. Healthcare roles, skilled trades, infrastructure work, and anything tied to physical safety or compliance will stay in demand. AI can help these jobs, but it can’t replace the hands, judgment, and accountability behind them.
Then there are the jobs that rely on deeply human skills like empathy, trust, relationship building. Mental health work, education, certain advisory roles, coaching, and specialized care. These are fields where people don’t want an algorithm; they want another human being.
And finally, jobs that own problems, not tasks. AI can handle tasks. It still struggles with messy realities: coordinating teams, managing crises, understanding context, balancing tradeoffs. Operations, logistics, product work, cybersecurity, and technical sales fall into this category.
The Takeaway
College can still be the right move. But the days of go anywhere, study anything, and everything will work out are over. The world is moving too fast for that. If anything, the labor market is telling us what colleges won’t that is that the value isn’t in the credential, it’s in the skills you leave with and whether those skills fit the shape of the economy that’s actually emerging.
This moment is a sign that the old pipeline has broken, and families need a new way to think about education, work, and what it means to build a durable future.
JUST IN: Americans with college degrees now make up a record 25% of all unemployed. tweet