EndGame Macro
RT @grok: @onechancefreedm @TeddyBitcoins Yes, if the "David vs Goliath" narrative boosts retail buying and drives MSTR's price up, JP Morgan's net long position (2.376M shares + 202K calls outweighing 363K puts) would profit from the rise, based on their Q3 2025 13F filing.
tweet

EndGame Macro
J.P. Morgan VS MicroStrategy
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 19.89x
•3-Year Mean: 22.75x

•NTM FCF Yield: 1.50%
•3-Year Mean: 3.20%

As you can see, $META appears to be trading below fair value on an earnings multiple

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~53% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $44.45B
•Long-Term Debt: $28.34B

$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 112x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 25.7%
•2024: 29.4%
•LTM: 32.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•2024: 37.1%
•LTM: 32.6%

$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $85.97B
•2025E: $199.46B
•CAGR: 18.33%

FREE CASH FLOW✅*
•2020: $23.58B
•2025E: $41.47B
•CAGR: 11.95%

•2028E: $74B*

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $10.09
•2025E: $25.99
•CAGR: 20.83%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 2.88B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.59B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~10%, $META increased its EPS by ~11% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 42.6%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 30.9%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~53% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at a 9.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly less than the (9.95%) required growth rate:

2025E: $25.99 (9% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $30.31 (17% YoY)
2027E: $33.55 (11% YoY)
2028E: $35.02 (4% YoY)

$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2028 with $35.02 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

24x P/E: $840💵 … ~12.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $805💵 … ~10.6% CAGR

22x P/E: $770💵 … ~9.1% CAGR

21x P/E: $735💵 … ~7.5% CAGR

20x P/E: $700💵 … ~5.8% CAGR

As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple near its 3-year mean and a multiple that’s potentially justified given its growth rate, balance sheet, visionary leadership & AI-related investments

As I’ve mentioned before: “… the increased investment in future growth and necessary Al development, which has the potential to lead to better growth prospects, should be viewed with a bullish tone rather than a bearish one” — (which can lead to a sustainable re-rating over the next few years)

Today at $594💵 $META appears to be slightly undervalued, those buying today have a small margin of safety and will not need to rely on margin expansion

I consider $META a great buy ~$535💵, offering ~11% CAGR assuming a conservative 21x 2028 EPS est

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.

𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬[...]

𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
tweet

EndGame Macro
J.P. Morgan VS MicroStrategy Narrative
tweet

WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.

And it is a very stupid trend.

Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.

It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.

Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.

Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.

He's better than 99.9% of us.

Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.

He's not someone to ignore.
tweet

AkhenOsiris
OpenAI:

Jony Ive — the iconic Apple designer who united with OpenAI to create physical AI devices — revealed to longtime friend Laurene Powell Jobs in an onstage interview that his stealth project, already in prototype, will be unveiled within two years.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said during a joint interview at an Emerson Collective event that Ive's design is elegantly simple, with a touch of whimsy — which sounds very Apple-like.
tweet

EndGame Macro
The Coming Twist in Housing: Lower Rates, But No Price Boom

This chart is basically telling us the housing market’s run into a wall. When you have almost 40% more sellers than buyers, it means the pool of people willing or able to buy at today’s prices and today’s mortgage rates has dried up. Not because people don’t want homes, but because the monthly payment math has stretched as far as it can go. Sellers are slowly returning because life forces them to: job changes, relocations, divorce, investors unwinding. Buyers, on the other hand, are hitting their limit.

Where Rates Would Need To Go

A 6.3% mortgage doesn’t feel buyable to most households. You might get some activity in the mid 5’s, but real, broad based demand usually needs something in the 4s. That’s the psychological line where people say, Okay, maybe this is workable again. But the problem is simple…if rates fall and prices jump, nothing really improves. You’re still stuck with the same unaffordable payment, just repackaged differently.

Why Lower Rates Alone Won’t Save This Market

And this is where my own view comes in. I think unemployment is going to rise and the broader economy is going to weaken from here through 2026. When people feel less secure about their jobs, they don’t rush into housing just because rates tick lower. They pull back. They wait. They protect cash. And that shift in psychology keeps demand capped, even in a falling rate environment.

In a world where mortgage rates fall but the labor market softens, you don’t get the usual price surge that comes with cheaper financing. Instead, you get prices that either stay flat or drift down because the one force stronger than low rates is fear of losing income.

That’s the only scenario where home prices don’t rise as rates fall…lower borrowing costs colliding with a weakening economy and rising unemployment.

And I think that’s exactly where we’re headed.
tweet

WealthyReadings
It's very trendy to hit on Michael burry and other short sellers lately.

And it is a very stupid trend.

Short sellers lose in markets because those are designed to go up due to fiat expansions.

It doesn't mean their thesis are wrong or stupid, and we should always listen to the smart ones.

Burry is part of the smart ones. He's smarter and has access to more insights than all of us combined.

Don't make the mistake of thinking he's dumb. He's not. He made more money than all of us in one time, and has more guts than anyone on FinX as he held a multi million position in one of the most heated market of history.

He's better than 99.9% of us.

Having access to his thoughts is a chance. You don't have to agree with him nor follow his positions. But he will give you the best bear case on this market and allow you to work around it.

He's not someone to ignore.

JUST IN 🚨: Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 market crashes, has launched a Substack for $379/year - Barchart
tweet

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
What have I done 😂

Bill Ackman was on Fox Business this week saying “very high-quality businesses are showing up at very attractive levels”

He added that Pershing Square is approaching 15% cash & is “finishing due diligence on a company we’ve really wanted to own for years — now available at a bargain price”

Over the last several weeks, I’ve shared that many quality compounders are trading at the lower end of their 3-year valuation ranges and look attractive relative to their growth, durability, & moats

Before going any further I want to be clear: 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞

I simply enjoy analyzing great investors and their frameworks, & @BillAckman has been one I’ve respected for years

Now lets guess 🤔

I believe the company is potentially Mastercard $MA & here’s why:

@KoyfinCharts recently shared Bill’s investment principles & $MA checks off every box

𝟏. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬

✅Simple predictable FCF generative business

• $MA runs a toll-road-like payments network along with value added services & solutions & maintains >50% FCF margins

✅Formiddable barriers to entry

• $MA operates in a duopoly — a new competitor would need global merchant onboarding, bank integrations, regulators’ approval, & brand trust, among other things

✅Limited exposure to extrinsic factors that we cannot control

• $MA revenue is very stable especially over long periods & the company does not lend money, so it has no direct credit or balance-sheet risk

✅Generally low financial leverage levels

• $MA uses modest conservative leverage with strong interest-coverage ratios & stable cash generation

✅Minimal capital markets dependency

• Given its predictable recurring-like FCF, $MA is a self-funded business

✅Typically highly liquid mid & large cap companies

• $MA has a $488B market cap

𝟐. 𝐀𝐭𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧

✅Fair price as is but a substantial discount to optimized value

• $MA trades for 29x (lower end of its 3 year range & a PEG <2.00)- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet