Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
So much for efficient markets.
Google (the world's most profitable company) has seen its valuation double in less than 8 months.
$GOOGL https://t.co/r74Osrm8WD
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So much for efficient markets.
Google (the world's most profitable company) has seen its valuation double in less than 8 months.
$GOOGL https://t.co/r74Osrm8WD
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Offshore
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WealthyReadings
So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash?
Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others?
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less fo[...]
So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash?
Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others?
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less fo[...]
Offshore
WealthyReadings So... Is $NVDA a fraud? Is the bull market over? Is AI an hoax which won't generate any cash? Or... Is this just another dip, maybe a bit longer and violent but worth buying like all others? 🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is…
r rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular economy but did not find any indications that AI won't yield cash flow and that commitments can't be honored as of today.
I continue to be bullish. And shared all my moves and reasoning with subscribers yesterday.
The future is bright for those with a system. - WealthyReadings tweet
Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
$CRWD
CRN EXCLUSIVE:
In an exclusive interview with CRN, Kurtz said he is now confident describing CrowdStrike, in no uncertain terms, as the first-ever “hyperscaler for security.”
“We’re in a unique position in the industry because we do have the single platform to make all this work—as opposed to many things out there that are kind of stitched together,” Kurtz said.
The subscription model, Falcon Flex, aims to enable partners to rapidly package up and deploy the dozens of additional tools CrowdStrike now offers on its platform, while providing improved agility and cost savings for customers. And Flex has been a massive growth driver for CrowdStrike partners in 2025, with expectations that Flex will only ramp up as part of a broader expansion to SMB and midmarket customers, CrowdStrike and solution provider executives told CRN.
Executives from top solution and service provider partners told CRN that CrowdStrike’s approach has increasingly resonated with customers, many of which are seeking to consolidate tools and reduce costs while also improving security outcomes.
“The amount of their functionality that builds off the existing [software] agent footprint—that’s really attractive. It’s not, ‘More agents, more tools,’” said Blackwood’s Ebley.
And the benefits for cyber defense are substantial, as CrowdStrike can harness existing telemetry from endpoints to vastly improve key areas of security such as vulnerability management, he said.
“They can assess, what is all the telemetry visibility we have? And what can we do with that? What use cases can we solve for with that telemetry?” Ebley said.
The advantages of the CrowdStrike architecture have continued to amass as the vendor has moved into new categories, most recently with new security capabilities for AI and agentic AI. Still, the company recognized it needed a similar breakthrough on its sales and procurement model to really accelerate the platform’s adoption, executives said.
That breakthrough, they said, was Falcon Flex.
Traction with Flex has surged past expectations, he said. More than 1,000 customers have utilized the model with the average customer generating more than $1 million in ARR for CrowdStrike, as of the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, which closed July 31.
Even the July 2024 IT outage caused by a faulty configuration update from CrowdStrike ended up leading to wider implementation for Flex. CrowdStrike provided free product compensation to customers in the wake of the incident, and the natural move was to do this through a Flex license for easier procurement, according to executives.
As a result, “we accelerated the adoption of Falcon Flex because of the incident,” Kurtz said. “In one fell swoop, we got a lot of customers [onto Flex] very quickly.”
https://t.co/DWgWHi7bFV
tweet
$CRWD
CRN EXCLUSIVE:
In an exclusive interview with CRN, Kurtz said he is now confident describing CrowdStrike, in no uncertain terms, as the first-ever “hyperscaler for security.”
“We’re in a unique position in the industry because we do have the single platform to make all this work—as opposed to many things out there that are kind of stitched together,” Kurtz said.
The subscription model, Falcon Flex, aims to enable partners to rapidly package up and deploy the dozens of additional tools CrowdStrike now offers on its platform, while providing improved agility and cost savings for customers. And Flex has been a massive growth driver for CrowdStrike partners in 2025, with expectations that Flex will only ramp up as part of a broader expansion to SMB and midmarket customers, CrowdStrike and solution provider executives told CRN.
Executives from top solution and service provider partners told CRN that CrowdStrike’s approach has increasingly resonated with customers, many of which are seeking to consolidate tools and reduce costs while also improving security outcomes.
“The amount of their functionality that builds off the existing [software] agent footprint—that’s really attractive. It’s not, ‘More agents, more tools,’” said Blackwood’s Ebley.
And the benefits for cyber defense are substantial, as CrowdStrike can harness existing telemetry from endpoints to vastly improve key areas of security such as vulnerability management, he said.
“They can assess, what is all the telemetry visibility we have? And what can we do with that? What use cases can we solve for with that telemetry?” Ebley said.
The advantages of the CrowdStrike architecture have continued to amass as the vendor has moved into new categories, most recently with new security capabilities for AI and agentic AI. Still, the company recognized it needed a similar breakthrough on its sales and procurement model to really accelerate the platform’s adoption, executives said.
That breakthrough, they said, was Falcon Flex.
Traction with Flex has surged past expectations, he said. More than 1,000 customers have utilized the model with the average customer generating more than $1 million in ARR for CrowdStrike, as of the company’s second quarter of fiscal 2026, which closed July 31.
Even the July 2024 IT outage caused by a faulty configuration update from CrowdStrike ended up leading to wider implementation for Flex. CrowdStrike provided free product compensation to customers in the wake of the incident, and the natural move was to do this through a Flex license for easier procurement, according to executives.
As a result, “we accelerated the adoption of Falcon Flex because of the incident,” Kurtz said. “In one fell swoop, we got a lot of customers [onto Flex] very quickly.”
https://t.co/DWgWHi7bFV
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$NVDA crossing daily avg volume here with 4 hrs left in session and trying to make up for yesterday's bludgeoning off the high
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$NVDA crossing daily avg volume here with 4 hrs left in session and trying to make up for yesterday's bludgeoning off the high
$NVDA over 50% avg volume traded in the 1st hour... after massive reversal yesterday...feeling capitulatory 🫣 tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
This might be Amazon's most under appreciated segment.
Amazon generates nearly $50 billion per year in subscription revenue.
And that figure has grown by 30% annually for more than 10 years.
$AMZN https://t.co/eUg2QFKEwM
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This might be Amazon's most under appreciated segment.
Amazon generates nearly $50 billion per year in subscription revenue.
And that figure has grown by 30% annually for more than 10 years.
$AMZN https://t.co/eUg2QFKEwM
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
NEW: We just released a report on a congressional stock trade that caught our eye.
Watch here: https://t.co/Anvr9NF7KA
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NEW: We just released a report on a congressional stock trade that caught our eye.
Watch here: https://t.co/Anvr9NF7KA
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Consumer Sentiment Is Falling for a Reason, Because The Stock Market Isn’t the Real Economy
If you zoom in on this chart and then layer it over what’s happening underneath the surface of the economy, it becomes obvious why people are this discouraged. Sentiment is falling because the lived reality of the average household has gotten heavier in ways that don’t show up cleanly in GDP or stock market levels.
Consumer sentiment is now brushing up against record lows, and views of personal finances have slipped to their weakest point in sixteen years. That’s the accumulated strain of prices that reset higher and never came back down, borrowing costs that climbed and stayed high, and a job market that feels a little less secure each month. When someone’s car insurance, rent, groceries, medical bills, and credit card interest all cost more at the same time, you don’t need an economist to tell you why confidence is sliding. People feel it in their checking accounts long before the data confirms it.
The Strain Is Now Showing Up in Hard Numbers, Not Just Feelings
This isn’t just sentiment drifting around in a vacuum. The delinquency data paints the same story. Credit card delinquency rates are now higher than they were at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis, that’s a stunning thing to be able to say with a straight face. Student loan delinquencies have surged since payments resumed, with about 10% of borrowers 90 days past due. Auto loan delinquencies are at their highest point since 2010. And in the commercial world, office vacancies are sitting at roughly 14.1%, more than six times the 2019 rate and far worse than what we saw heading into 2008. When this many corners of the credit universe start flashing yellow or red, households don’t need a sentiment survey to tell them something is off…they can sense it.
The kicker is that these pressures stack. A household that’s worried about its job prospects, and the University of Michigan data shows rising job loss fears across age groups, is often the same one juggling rising credit card balances, a car loan that costs more than it used to, and higher prices across everything essential. When those pieces move together, confidence slips because they’re paying attention.
A Split Between the Macro Story and the Everyday Story
What makes this moment tricky is that the headline economy still looks okay. GDP isn’t contracting, and the stock market keeps floating higher. But that disconnect is exactly why sentiment looks the way it does. Households see an economy that appears strong on paper while their personal experience is deteriorating. And when the gap between the official story and the lived story gets too wide, people stop believing the headlines and start trusting their own financial stress signals.
That’s what this chart captures. A population that’s not panicking but is quietly acknowledging that the math doesn’t work like it used to. A population that sees the bills rising faster than the paychecks. A population that knows something is tightening even if policymakers don’t want to say it out loud yet.
My Honest Read
This is late cycle behavior. It’s the kind of sentiment you get when households aren’t in freefall but are stretched thin and losing resilience. The fact that so many delinquency metrics are now worse than they were heading into the financial crisis is a signal that the average American balance sheet is more fragile than the macro narrative implies. And fragility has a way of surfacing all at once.
tweet
Consumer Sentiment Is Falling for a Reason, Because The Stock Market Isn’t the Real Economy
If you zoom in on this chart and then layer it over what’s happening underneath the surface of the economy, it becomes obvious why people are this discouraged. Sentiment is falling because the lived reality of the average household has gotten heavier in ways that don’t show up cleanly in GDP or stock market levels.
Consumer sentiment is now brushing up against record lows, and views of personal finances have slipped to their weakest point in sixteen years. That’s the accumulated strain of prices that reset higher and never came back down, borrowing costs that climbed and stayed high, and a job market that feels a little less secure each month. When someone’s car insurance, rent, groceries, medical bills, and credit card interest all cost more at the same time, you don’t need an economist to tell you why confidence is sliding. People feel it in their checking accounts long before the data confirms it.
The Strain Is Now Showing Up in Hard Numbers, Not Just Feelings
This isn’t just sentiment drifting around in a vacuum. The delinquency data paints the same story. Credit card delinquency rates are now higher than they were at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis, that’s a stunning thing to be able to say with a straight face. Student loan delinquencies have surged since payments resumed, with about 10% of borrowers 90 days past due. Auto loan delinquencies are at their highest point since 2010. And in the commercial world, office vacancies are sitting at roughly 14.1%, more than six times the 2019 rate and far worse than what we saw heading into 2008. When this many corners of the credit universe start flashing yellow or red, households don’t need a sentiment survey to tell them something is off…they can sense it.
The kicker is that these pressures stack. A household that’s worried about its job prospects, and the University of Michigan data shows rising job loss fears across age groups, is often the same one juggling rising credit card balances, a car loan that costs more than it used to, and higher prices across everything essential. When those pieces move together, confidence slips because they’re paying attention.
A Split Between the Macro Story and the Everyday Story
What makes this moment tricky is that the headline economy still looks okay. GDP isn’t contracting, and the stock market keeps floating higher. But that disconnect is exactly why sentiment looks the way it does. Households see an economy that appears strong on paper while their personal experience is deteriorating. And when the gap between the official story and the lived story gets too wide, people stop believing the headlines and start trusting their own financial stress signals.
That’s what this chart captures. A population that’s not panicking but is quietly acknowledging that the math doesn’t work like it used to. A population that sees the bills rising faster than the paychecks. A population that knows something is tightening even if policymakers don’t want to say it out loud yet.
My Honest Read
This is late cycle behavior. It’s the kind of sentiment you get when households aren’t in freefall but are stretched thin and losing resilience. The fact that so many delinquency metrics are now worse than they were heading into the financial crisis is a signal that the average American balance sheet is more fragile than the macro narrative implies. And fragility has a way of surfacing all at once.
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