Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: Here’s the -30% club in the Quarter > $2B Mkt Cap
Let the scavenger hunt begin https://t.co/ntqLNvQOCH
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RT @qcapital2020: Here’s the -30% club in the Quarter > $2B Mkt Cap
Let the scavenger hunt begin https://t.co/ntqLNvQOCH
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AkhenOsiris
$NVDA
In an all-hands meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the company's earnings.
Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" Nvidia's knockout numbers.
Huang said the company was in a no-win situation amid AI bubble chatter.
In a company meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" its "incredible" quarter.
Nvidia delivered record-shattering earnings on Wednesday as Huang rebuffed swelling narratives around an AI bubble. Its stock popped on Wednesday and then fell again on Thursday as confidence in the AI trade wavered.
"If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there's an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble," Huang said at the Thursday meeting, which Business Insider has listened to.
Huang said the expectations for Nvidia were so sky-high that the company was in somewhat of a no-win situation. He nodded to online chatter about the company's massive economic sway.
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$NVDA
In an all-hands meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the company's earnings.
Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" Nvidia's knockout numbers.
Huang said the company was in a no-win situation amid AI bubble chatter.
In a company meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" its "incredible" quarter.
Nvidia delivered record-shattering earnings on Wednesday as Huang rebuffed swelling narratives around an AI bubble. Its stock popped on Wednesday and then fell again on Thursday as confidence in the AI trade wavered.
"If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there's an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble," Huang said at the Thursday meeting, which Business Insider has listened to.
Huang said the expectations for Nvidia were so sky-high that the company was in somewhat of a no-win situation. He nodded to online chatter about the company's massive economic sway.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When a BlackRock CLO Blinks First
This BlackRock CLO is one of those moments where the veneer slips and you get to see what’s been hiding underneath. A deal that was supposed to be safe, highly rated tranches, diversified loans, steady income is now failing core tests because the value of the loans backing it has dropped too far.
That’s not supposed to happen in these structures. When it does, it’s a sign the assumptions baked into the boom years are colliding with the reality of higher rates and weaker borrowers.
What Actually Went Wrong
This particular CLO was built in late 2021, right when private credit was white hot. Money was pouring in, competition was intense, and underwriting standards quietly softened across the industry. Everyone wanted the yield, and deals got done that probably wouldn’t have passed muster in a more normal environment.
Now the loans inside the portfolio,
some to companies like Renovo Home Partners or Pluralsight are showing real stress. One borrower’s debt was written down to zero. Others are sliding in that direction. As those loans lose value, the CLO’s over collateralization test keeps failing, because the bondholders aren’t as protected as the math originally promised.
To keep the deal from flipping into full defensive mode, BlackRock had to do something managers almost never do…waive some of its management fees to prop up the structure. That alone tells you how tight things are.
The Bigger Signal Behind the Headlines
One CLO failing tests doesn’t break the credit system. But it does puncture the narrative that private credit was offering equity like returns with bank loan safety. These loans were made in an era of cheap money, zero rates, and fierce competition. Once rates shot higher and the real economy softened, the cracks were always going to show up first in the companies that depend on cheap financing to stay upright.
That’s what this deal is…the first visible crack in a corner of the market that’s grown too fast and promised too much.
And while plenty of private credit CLOs are still performing fine, this incident is a reminder that the whole space is more sensitive to rate pressure, valuation slippage, and shaky underwriting than people wanted to believe.
tweet
When a BlackRock CLO Blinks First
This BlackRock CLO is one of those moments where the veneer slips and you get to see what’s been hiding underneath. A deal that was supposed to be safe, highly rated tranches, diversified loans, steady income is now failing core tests because the value of the loans backing it has dropped too far.
That’s not supposed to happen in these structures. When it does, it’s a sign the assumptions baked into the boom years are colliding with the reality of higher rates and weaker borrowers.
What Actually Went Wrong
This particular CLO was built in late 2021, right when private credit was white hot. Money was pouring in, competition was intense, and underwriting standards quietly softened across the industry. Everyone wanted the yield, and deals got done that probably wouldn’t have passed muster in a more normal environment.
Now the loans inside the portfolio,
some to companies like Renovo Home Partners or Pluralsight are showing real stress. One borrower’s debt was written down to zero. Others are sliding in that direction. As those loans lose value, the CLO’s over collateralization test keeps failing, because the bondholders aren’t as protected as the math originally promised.
To keep the deal from flipping into full defensive mode, BlackRock had to do something managers almost never do…waive some of its management fees to prop up the structure. That alone tells you how tight things are.
The Bigger Signal Behind the Headlines
One CLO failing tests doesn’t break the credit system. But it does puncture the narrative that private credit was offering equity like returns with bank loan safety. These loans were made in an era of cheap money, zero rates, and fierce competition. Once rates shot higher and the real economy softened, the cracks were always going to show up first in the companies that depend on cheap financing to stay upright.
That’s what this deal is…the first visible crack in a corner of the market that’s grown too fast and promised too much.
And while plenty of private credit CLOs are still performing fine, this incident is a reminder that the whole space is more sensitive to rate pressure, valuation slippage, and shaky underwriting than people wanted to believe.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Vol Up, BTC Down, Commodities Soft… Something’s Changing
Bitcoin: From Glide Path to Air Pockets
Start with BTC. Price is rolling over after a strong run, while the BTC volatility index (DVOL) is spiking back above 60. That combo matters more than either chart alone.
For most of the year you had rising price and falling vol, classic grind up behavior as everyone piled into the same trade, comfortable and leveraged. Now you’ve flipped…price is breaking lower, and vol is jumping. That’s what you see when:
•leveraged longs are being forced to de-risk
•options markets are suddenly willing to pay up for downside protection
•liquidity is thin enough that each sell order moves the tape more than it used to
It doesn’t look like full blown panic yet, DVOL has been higher but it does look like the easy phase of the BTC rally is over. From here, every move will be more contested and more volatile.
Oil, Gold, and the Macro Message
Crude at $57 and down double digits over the year is telling a different story…weaker demand expectations. You don’t get this kind of steady fade in oil if markets believe in booming global growth.
Gold rolling over at the same time is interesting. Normally, on a day when crypto is getting hit and growth fears creep in, you’d expect some bid into gold. Instead, it’s leaking lower. That usually means people are raising cash across the board and selling what they can, not what they’d like or that higher real yields and stronger dollar are starting to bite again. Either way, it points to tightening financial conditions, not a new wave of speculative excess.
Putting It Together: A Market That’s Getting Nervous About Liquidity
When you stitch these together, the pattern is pretty clear…
•Bitcoin is shifting from smooth trend to choppy, stressy price action.
•Vol in BTC is waking up after a long sleep.
•Oil is saying growth and inflation pressures are cooling.
•Gold isn’t acting like a safe haven; it’s acting like another source of cash.
That’s the footprint of a market that’s starting to worry less about missing upside and more about balance sheets, funding costs, and how much risk they’re actually carrying.
The tone has changed. The charts look less like everything’s fine, buy the dip and more like liquidity is tightening, pick your spots, and respect the fact that air pockets are back in play.
tweet
Vol Up, BTC Down, Commodities Soft… Something’s Changing
Bitcoin: From Glide Path to Air Pockets
Start with BTC. Price is rolling over after a strong run, while the BTC volatility index (DVOL) is spiking back above 60. That combo matters more than either chart alone.
For most of the year you had rising price and falling vol, classic grind up behavior as everyone piled into the same trade, comfortable and leveraged. Now you’ve flipped…price is breaking lower, and vol is jumping. That’s what you see when:
•leveraged longs are being forced to de-risk
•options markets are suddenly willing to pay up for downside protection
•liquidity is thin enough that each sell order moves the tape more than it used to
It doesn’t look like full blown panic yet, DVOL has been higher but it does look like the easy phase of the BTC rally is over. From here, every move will be more contested and more volatile.
Oil, Gold, and the Macro Message
Crude at $57 and down double digits over the year is telling a different story…weaker demand expectations. You don’t get this kind of steady fade in oil if markets believe in booming global growth.
Gold rolling over at the same time is interesting. Normally, on a day when crypto is getting hit and growth fears creep in, you’d expect some bid into gold. Instead, it’s leaking lower. That usually means people are raising cash across the board and selling what they can, not what they’d like or that higher real yields and stronger dollar are starting to bite again. Either way, it points to tightening financial conditions, not a new wave of speculative excess.
Putting It Together: A Market That’s Getting Nervous About Liquidity
When you stitch these together, the pattern is pretty clear…
•Bitcoin is shifting from smooth trend to choppy, stressy price action.
•Vol in BTC is waking up after a long sleep.
•Oil is saying growth and inflation pressures are cooling.
•Gold isn’t acting like a safe haven; it’s acting like another source of cash.
That’s the footprint of a market that’s starting to worry less about missing upside and more about balance sheets, funding costs, and how much risk they’re actually carrying.
The tone has changed. The charts look less like everything’s fine, buy the dip and more like liquidity is tightening, pick your spots, and respect the fact that air pockets are back in play.
Crypto and commodities credit contagion https://t.co/50Hj90OWTx tweet
EndGame Macro
Japan Is Being Pulled Into a Reality It Can’t Ignore
If you look at the yen, long term Japanese yields, the size of the stimulus package, and the geopolitical tone coming out of Tokyo, they all point to the same thing…Japan isn’t breaking, but it is being nudged out of the old, comfortable equilibrium it lived in for decades. And the market is feeling that shift before policymakers are ready to say it out loud.
The Yen’s Slide Is Familiar But the Pace Is What Matters
The yen is still weakening for the classic reason…the rate gap between the U.S. and Japan is massive. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is how quickly USD/JPY has been moving. When the yen starts sliding in big, one sided chunks, the Ministry of Finance begins dropping hints about “excessive moves” and reminding everyone that Japan can intervene under its agreement with the U.S.
That doesn’t mean they’re facing a crisis yet, it just means the speed is fast enough that officials feel the need to tap the brakes. And if they do step in, it will be the usual rhythm of selling dollars, buy yen, calm things down a bit. It won’t reverse the broader trend unless the BOJ actually tightens policy. The market knows that.
The JGB Market Is Acting Like a Real Market Again
The bigger, quieter shift is in the bond market. Japan rolled out a huge fiscal package of ¥21.3 trillion directly and potentially around ¥40 trillion when you count the whole thing. For years that kind of spending wouldn’t have moved long term yields because the BOJ was essentially sitting on the entire curve.
But now that yield curve control has been loosened, the 20 and 40 year JGBs are behaving differently. They’re drifting up the way any long bond would when a government spends big and inflation isn’t dead anymore. It’s the market pricing risk again after a decade where it wasn’t allowed to.
Japan still has enormous capacity to lean on the market if it needs to. The move in yields is more about recalibration than revolt.
Geopolitics Isn’t Driving the Tape, But It’s Adding Weight
Japan is taking a more assertive stance toward China. Takaichi openly calling a Taiwan conflict a “survival threatening situation” the legal trigger for deploying the SDF is a notable shift.
Markets aren’t trading that headline tick for tick, but they absorb it. A Japan preparing for a more active security role is a Japan that will spend more, defend more, and be more exposed to regional tension. It’s background gravity not immediate pricing pressure, but part of the bigger picture investors now have to weigh.
The Most Honest Read
When you put everything together, the story becomes clearer…Japan isn’t facing a dramatic break, but the system that worked for the last 20–30 years is getting stretched by a combination of global rates, domestic spending, and a tougher strategic environment.
•The yen is weakening because the rate gap remains huge.
•JGB yields are rising because the BOJ isn’t suppressing the entire curve anymore.
•And policymakers are getting louder because the pace of these moves matters, especially when the country is stepping into a more assertive geopolitical posture.
Japan is adjusting…slowly, reluctantly, and under pressure from forces it doesn’t fully control.
And the market is picking up on that long before the officials are ready to admit it.
tweet
Japan Is Being Pulled Into a Reality It Can’t Ignore
If you look at the yen, long term Japanese yields, the size of the stimulus package, and the geopolitical tone coming out of Tokyo, they all point to the same thing…Japan isn’t breaking, but it is being nudged out of the old, comfortable equilibrium it lived in for decades. And the market is feeling that shift before policymakers are ready to say it out loud.
The Yen’s Slide Is Familiar But the Pace Is What Matters
The yen is still weakening for the classic reason…the rate gap between the U.S. and Japan is massive. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is how quickly USD/JPY has been moving. When the yen starts sliding in big, one sided chunks, the Ministry of Finance begins dropping hints about “excessive moves” and reminding everyone that Japan can intervene under its agreement with the U.S.
That doesn’t mean they’re facing a crisis yet, it just means the speed is fast enough that officials feel the need to tap the brakes. And if they do step in, it will be the usual rhythm of selling dollars, buy yen, calm things down a bit. It won’t reverse the broader trend unless the BOJ actually tightens policy. The market knows that.
The JGB Market Is Acting Like a Real Market Again
The bigger, quieter shift is in the bond market. Japan rolled out a huge fiscal package of ¥21.3 trillion directly and potentially around ¥40 trillion when you count the whole thing. For years that kind of spending wouldn’t have moved long term yields because the BOJ was essentially sitting on the entire curve.
But now that yield curve control has been loosened, the 20 and 40 year JGBs are behaving differently. They’re drifting up the way any long bond would when a government spends big and inflation isn’t dead anymore. It’s the market pricing risk again after a decade where it wasn’t allowed to.
Japan still has enormous capacity to lean on the market if it needs to. The move in yields is more about recalibration than revolt.
Geopolitics Isn’t Driving the Tape, But It’s Adding Weight
Japan is taking a more assertive stance toward China. Takaichi openly calling a Taiwan conflict a “survival threatening situation” the legal trigger for deploying the SDF is a notable shift.
Markets aren’t trading that headline tick for tick, but they absorb it. A Japan preparing for a more active security role is a Japan that will spend more, defend more, and be more exposed to regional tension. It’s background gravity not immediate pricing pressure, but part of the bigger picture investors now have to weigh.
The Most Honest Read
When you put everything together, the story becomes clearer…Japan isn’t facing a dramatic break, but the system that worked for the last 20–30 years is getting stretched by a combination of global rates, domestic spending, and a tougher strategic environment.
•The yen is weakening because the rate gap remains huge.
•JGB yields are rising because the BOJ isn’t suppressing the entire curve anymore.
•And policymakers are getting louder because the pace of these moves matters, especially when the country is stepping into a more assertive geopolitical posture.
Japan is adjusting…slowly, reluctantly, and under pressure from forces it doesn’t fully control.
And the market is picking up on that long before the officials are ready to admit it.
All Hell Breaks Loose In Japan As Yen, Bonds Crash Ahead Of Gigantic, Debt-Busting Stimulus https://t.co/dmsWDLBGBH tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
zerohedge (@zerohedge) on X
All Hell Breaks Loose In Japan As Yen, Bonds Crash Ahead Of Gigantic, Debt-Busting Stimulus https://t.co/dmsWDLBGBH
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less for rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular eco[...]
🚨BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Is Not A Ponzi Scheme
Here’s why $NVDA isn’t the disaster the algorithms - and the bears, want you to think it is. Far from it.
Shanaka’s argument claims that Nvidia’s rising inventory, receivables, and DSO suggest demand is slowing and the company is pushing more product than customers can absorb, in terms of need and payment.
In brief: no more demand nor cash to pay for their GPUs.
1. Rising Inventory ≠ Red Flag
Shanaka says rising inventory is evidence of weak demand, but ignores $NVDA pricing - and many other factors we'll talk about.
When unit prices double or triple, the same volume of hardware shows up as a larger dollar value in inventories.
You'll have more bananas for $1M that airplanes, right? Just like you'll have more H100 than GB200.
When we normalize inventory by revenue - or by units shipped, the trend is stable, suggesting this is a pricing effect, not a demand problem and rising inventory in volume.
This can also be illustrated with accounts receivable per revenue, which make the same point: when product prices increase, dollar-denominated metrics rise, so metrics taken individually may look bad but within context, the story looks normal.
That being said, many could point that even then, inventory is rising. To which we need to add context, something algorythms are incapable of.
2. Higher DSO & Supply Chain Constraints
DSO - which represents the time before being paid, rising slightly is consistent with real-world constraints.
$NVDA doesn’t just ship GPUs anymore; they ship racks, custom configurations, integrated systems… These use third-party components, which require more coordination, harder logistics, and can temporarily increase time before revenue recognition and therefore inventory.
Add to this the fact that foundries, as proven many times these quarters during $TSM & co earnings, run at full capacity, and you get even more delays.
More customization + constrained supply chains = longer installation cycles before revenue can be recognized and rising inventories until then.
This is an operational bottleneck, not a credit problem.
A move from 46 to 53 days is marginal especially considering this value has been roughly stable for three quarters.
3. Circular Economy
As for the claims about a circular economy and the same dollars being used across multiple companies, I have no counters but this: circular economies are normal, that’s how economies work.
It only becomes a problem if AI services do not generate enough cash to honor commitments.
Because that’s what those are: commitments, not booked revenues. If those commitments can be honored, then what is the problem?
4. Algorithms Don’t Understand Context
Shanaka claims that this was thankfully found by algorithm - and I can agree with him based on the market's behaviour and violence. But he forgets that algorythm are built to find fraud in 99% of cases.
But $NVDA is the 1%.
When revenue grows 60–80% YoY, it's normal for inventories, receivables, and payables to grow at least comparably in dollar terms. Maybe even slightly higher when added real-world constraints.
What matters is whether these metrics grow disproportionately relative to revenue.
And once normalized, $NVDA ratios are stable, which is consistent with a rapid ongoing expansion, not accounting games or demand collapse.
That being said, everything isn’t necessarily perfect. But again: algorithms are configured to gauge 99% of the market, so of course the 1% will raise red flags.
Add some organic grey cells, context and reality, and the picture is very different, even if the stock continues to fall.
The market is about emotions, not rationality. And X is great at sharing emotions, less for rationality.
Conclusion.
I might be proven wrong in time and $NVDA might be an accounting fraud. I personally continue to believe in the AI revolution, have my own concerns about the circular eco[...]