Offshore
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EndGame Macro
A Quiet Rotation That Speaks Loudly
What’s happening in that watchlist is a snapshot of how investors behave when the mood shifts from chase upside to protect what I’ve got. You can see it in the split between the top half and the bottom half of the screen.
The defensive areas like MBS, utilities, staples, health care are either green or barely touched. That’s where money goes when people still want exposure but don’t want to get punched in the face. It’s the market saying…I’m not running for the exits, but I’m not reaching for risk either. These are the sectors that feel safer when growth looks softer and volatility is waking back up.
And the Pain Points Tell You Why
Down below is where the stress shows up…gold slipping, Oracle getting hit, gasoline rolling over, and crypto taking a real shot, with DVOL spiking right alongside it. That combination tells you the speculative pockets are getting unwound first. When ETH and BTC are red at the same time vol is jumping, that’s classic deleveraging. People who were leaning on low volatility and easy momentum are now pulling back.
Even Oracle, a profitable, steady tech name gets dragged in because anything tied to the broader growth + AI + liquidity theme is suddenly being questioned after the jobs data and the shift in rate expectations.
Investor Psychology in One Glance
Put together, this is what a caution mode looks like before it becomes panic. Investors are rotating, not fleeing. They’re trimming the stuff that depends on sentiment and liquidity, and quietly sliding into the boring parts of the market that feel sturdier when uncertainty creeps in.
It’s the market saying..I want to stay in the game just not with the same level of risk I was taking yesterday.
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A Quiet Rotation That Speaks Loudly
What’s happening in that watchlist is a snapshot of how investors behave when the mood shifts from chase upside to protect what I’ve got. You can see it in the split between the top half and the bottom half of the screen.
The defensive areas like MBS, utilities, staples, health care are either green or barely touched. That’s where money goes when people still want exposure but don’t want to get punched in the face. It’s the market saying…I’m not running for the exits, but I’m not reaching for risk either. These are the sectors that feel safer when growth looks softer and volatility is waking back up.
And the Pain Points Tell You Why
Down below is where the stress shows up…gold slipping, Oracle getting hit, gasoline rolling over, and crypto taking a real shot, with DVOL spiking right alongside it. That combination tells you the speculative pockets are getting unwound first. When ETH and BTC are red at the same time vol is jumping, that’s classic deleveraging. People who were leaning on low volatility and easy momentum are now pulling back.
Even Oracle, a profitable, steady tech name gets dragged in because anything tied to the broader growth + AI + liquidity theme is suddenly being questioned after the jobs data and the shift in rate expectations.
Investor Psychology in One Glance
Put together, this is what a caution mode looks like before it becomes panic. Investors are rotating, not fleeing. They’re trimming the stuff that depends on sentiment and liquidity, and quietly sliding into the boring parts of the market that feel sturdier when uncertainty creeps in.
It’s the market saying..I want to stay in the game just not with the same level of risk I was taking yesterday.
https://t.co/DI7APNKAKC tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
There’s Something Happening Here in the Labor Market
A 4.4% unemployment rate doesn’t sound dramatic on its own. It’s still below the long term average and miles away from anything resembling crisis. But unemployment isn’t about the absolute level, it’s about the turn. Once the rate bottoms and starts climbing, even slowly, that’s usually the moment the cycle quietly shifts from expansion into slowdown.
Historically, when unemployment rises a full percentage point off the low, it rarely stops there. It tends to keep drifting higher because it reflects companies easing hiring, trimming hours, and holding back on expansion long before they announce the big layoffs. That’s exactly where we are now.
Why 4.4% Today Is Not the Same as 4.4% in 2021
The comparison to October 2021 is technically true but misses the context. Back then, the economy was still healing from the COVID shock and fiscal support was everywhere, the Fed had rates at zero, and companies were desperate for workers. Unemployment was falling toward the best labor market in decades.
Today we’re on the other side of that mountain. Rates are higher, stimulus is gone, households are stretched, and the hiring engine that powered 2021–2023 is cooling. So while the number matches 2021, the meaning is completely different…that was a recovery, this is a softening.
The Quiet Signal the Chart Is Flashing
When you put this rise into the long historical pattern, it lands in a familiar place. Every cycle has its nobody panic, but something’s shifting moment, the early turn in the unemployment rate that doesn’t feel like much at first but ends up marking the beginning of the slowdown.
That’s the signal here. The recognition that the labor market has already peaked and is slowly giving back ground. And historically, once that process starts, it’s hard to reverse without more easing or more growth.
This chart isn’t shouting. But it is saying the cycle has turned.
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There’s Something Happening Here in the Labor Market
A 4.4% unemployment rate doesn’t sound dramatic on its own. It’s still below the long term average and miles away from anything resembling crisis. But unemployment isn’t about the absolute level, it’s about the turn. Once the rate bottoms and starts climbing, even slowly, that’s usually the moment the cycle quietly shifts from expansion into slowdown.
Historically, when unemployment rises a full percentage point off the low, it rarely stops there. It tends to keep drifting higher because it reflects companies easing hiring, trimming hours, and holding back on expansion long before they announce the big layoffs. That’s exactly where we are now.
Why 4.4% Today Is Not the Same as 4.4% in 2021
The comparison to October 2021 is technically true but misses the context. Back then, the economy was still healing from the COVID shock and fiscal support was everywhere, the Fed had rates at zero, and companies were desperate for workers. Unemployment was falling toward the best labor market in decades.
Today we’re on the other side of that mountain. Rates are higher, stimulus is gone, households are stretched, and the hiring engine that powered 2021–2023 is cooling. So while the number matches 2021, the meaning is completely different…that was a recovery, this is a softening.
The Quiet Signal the Chart Is Flashing
When you put this rise into the long historical pattern, it lands in a familiar place. Every cycle has its nobody panic, but something’s shifting moment, the early turn in the unemployment rate that doesn’t feel like much at first but ends up marking the beginning of the slowdown.
That’s the signal here. The recognition that the labor market has already peaked and is slowly giving back ground. And historically, once that process starts, it’s hard to reverse without more easing or more growth.
This chart isn’t shouting. But it is saying the cycle has turned.
The US Unemployment Rate moved up to 4.4% in September, the highest level since October 2021. https://t.co/oR7dQoVh7I tweet
EndGame Macro
What’s Really Going On With the U.S. And This Argentina Bailout
Washington is trying to support Argentina without blowing up its own banking system or stepping into political landmines at home.
The Treasury originally floated a $20B FX-stabilization agreement, basically a dollar backstop and expected U.S. banks to match it with another $20B lending facility. In other words, the U.S. would give the political umbrella, and Wall Street would write the checks.
But the banks immediately balked. They weren’t willing to lend $20B to a country that has defaulted more than any major economy without collateral or a U.S. backstop. They pressed Treasury for guidance on what Argentina could pledge or whether Washington would guarantee the loans. Those answers never came.
And remember…banks are under pressure on multiple fronts right now. Liquidity has tightened, the Fed is openly worried about dealers avoiding the Standing Repo Facility, and there’s still heavy fighting over the Basel III endgame rules. These are not conditions where regulators want banks loading up on risky emerging market debt.
So instead of the big $20B loan, banks shifted to a much smaller, short term repo facility, maybe $5B just enough to help Argentina make a $4B payment due in January. It’s the safest, cleanest version of help, and it lands entirely within risk and regulatory limits.
Why the U.S. Is Involved at All
Washington’s motives aren’t mysterious. The U.S. wants Milei to succeed, not because of ideology, but because Argentina is strategically important and the last thing the U.S. wants is another major Latin American economy falling deeper into Chinese financing channels.
So the U.S. is trying to do three things at once…
•Support a friendly government without taking on too much political risk.
•Prevent a near term default, which would trigger instability across emerging markets.
•Keep Argentina tied to U.S. institutions, not Beijing or other lenders.
But Treasury has limits. It can give political cover, it can provide FX support, it can help structure deals but it can’t force risk committees at JPMorgan and BofA to approve a $20B loan to a sovereign with almost no reserves.
So Washington is doing the same thing it does in every late cycle, geopolitically sensitive situation…step in just enough to stabilize the immediate problem, but not enough to carry the entire load.
That’s why the $20B bank rescue vanished and turned into a smaller, safer, repo style bridge loan. It’s not a retreat, it’s a recalibration to what the banks, the regulators, and the politics will actually allow.
The U.S. isn’t abandoning Argentina.
It’s just operating within the reality of its own system.
tweet
What’s Really Going On With the U.S. And This Argentina Bailout
Washington is trying to support Argentina without blowing up its own banking system or stepping into political landmines at home.
The Treasury originally floated a $20B FX-stabilization agreement, basically a dollar backstop and expected U.S. banks to match it with another $20B lending facility. In other words, the U.S. would give the political umbrella, and Wall Street would write the checks.
But the banks immediately balked. They weren’t willing to lend $20B to a country that has defaulted more than any major economy without collateral or a U.S. backstop. They pressed Treasury for guidance on what Argentina could pledge or whether Washington would guarantee the loans. Those answers never came.
And remember…banks are under pressure on multiple fronts right now. Liquidity has tightened, the Fed is openly worried about dealers avoiding the Standing Repo Facility, and there’s still heavy fighting over the Basel III endgame rules. These are not conditions where regulators want banks loading up on risky emerging market debt.
So instead of the big $20B loan, banks shifted to a much smaller, short term repo facility, maybe $5B just enough to help Argentina make a $4B payment due in January. It’s the safest, cleanest version of help, and it lands entirely within risk and regulatory limits.
Why the U.S. Is Involved at All
Washington’s motives aren’t mysterious. The U.S. wants Milei to succeed, not because of ideology, but because Argentina is strategically important and the last thing the U.S. wants is another major Latin American economy falling deeper into Chinese financing channels.
So the U.S. is trying to do three things at once…
•Support a friendly government without taking on too much political risk.
•Prevent a near term default, which would trigger instability across emerging markets.
•Keep Argentina tied to U.S. institutions, not Beijing or other lenders.
But Treasury has limits. It can give political cover, it can provide FX support, it can help structure deals but it can’t force risk committees at JPMorgan and BofA to approve a $20B loan to a sovereign with almost no reserves.
So Washington is doing the same thing it does in every late cycle, geopolitically sensitive situation…step in just enough to stabilize the immediate problem, but not enough to carry the entire load.
That’s why the $20B bank rescue vanished and turned into a smaller, safer, repo style bridge loan. It’s not a retreat, it’s a recalibration to what the banks, the regulators, and the politics will actually allow.
The U.S. isn’t abandoning Argentina.
It’s just operating within the reality of its own system.
Exclusive: A planned $20 billion bailout to Argentina from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup has been shelved as bankers pivot to a smaller loan package https://t.co/9qgoLpUS3f tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) on X
Exclusive: A planned $20 billion bailout to Argentina from JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup has been shelved as bankers pivot to a smaller loan package https://t.co/9qgoLpUS3f
Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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The Fear & Greed Index is at 6. In April, the Index bottomed at three on April 8th. Seems like we're close? https://t.co/YGt1OYlw82
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: Here’s the -30% club in the Quarter > $2B Mkt Cap
Let the scavenger hunt begin https://t.co/ntqLNvQOCH
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RT @qcapital2020: Here’s the -30% club in the Quarter > $2B Mkt Cap
Let the scavenger hunt begin https://t.co/ntqLNvQOCH
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AkhenOsiris
$NVDA
In an all-hands meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the company's earnings.
Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" Nvidia's knockout numbers.
Huang said the company was in a no-win situation amid AI bubble chatter.
In a company meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" its "incredible" quarter.
Nvidia delivered record-shattering earnings on Wednesday as Huang rebuffed swelling narratives around an AI bubble. Its stock popped on Wednesday and then fell again on Thursday as confidence in the AI trade wavered.
"If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there's an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble," Huang said at the Thursday meeting, which Business Insider has listened to.
Huang said the expectations for Nvidia were so sky-high that the company was in somewhat of a no-win situation. He nodded to online chatter about the company's massive economic sway.
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$NVDA
In an all-hands meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang addressed the company's earnings.
Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" Nvidia's knockout numbers.
Huang said the company was in a no-win situation amid AI bubble chatter.
In a company meeting on Thursday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that "the market did not appreciate" its "incredible" quarter.
Nvidia delivered record-shattering earnings on Wednesday as Huang rebuffed swelling narratives around an AI bubble. Its stock popped on Wednesday and then fell again on Thursday as confidence in the AI trade wavered.
"If we delivered a bad quarter, it is evidence there's an AI bubble. If we delivered a great quarter, we are fueling the AI bubble," Huang said at the Thursday meeting, which Business Insider has listened to.
Huang said the expectations for Nvidia were so sky-high that the company was in somewhat of a no-win situation. He nodded to online chatter about the company's massive economic sway.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
When a BlackRock CLO Blinks First
This BlackRock CLO is one of those moments where the veneer slips and you get to see what’s been hiding underneath. A deal that was supposed to be safe, highly rated tranches, diversified loans, steady income is now failing core tests because the value of the loans backing it has dropped too far.
That’s not supposed to happen in these structures. When it does, it’s a sign the assumptions baked into the boom years are colliding with the reality of higher rates and weaker borrowers.
What Actually Went Wrong
This particular CLO was built in late 2021, right when private credit was white hot. Money was pouring in, competition was intense, and underwriting standards quietly softened across the industry. Everyone wanted the yield, and deals got done that probably wouldn’t have passed muster in a more normal environment.
Now the loans inside the portfolio,
some to companies like Renovo Home Partners or Pluralsight are showing real stress. One borrower’s debt was written down to zero. Others are sliding in that direction. As those loans lose value, the CLO’s over collateralization test keeps failing, because the bondholders aren’t as protected as the math originally promised.
To keep the deal from flipping into full defensive mode, BlackRock had to do something managers almost never do…waive some of its management fees to prop up the structure. That alone tells you how tight things are.
The Bigger Signal Behind the Headlines
One CLO failing tests doesn’t break the credit system. But it does puncture the narrative that private credit was offering equity like returns with bank loan safety. These loans were made in an era of cheap money, zero rates, and fierce competition. Once rates shot higher and the real economy softened, the cracks were always going to show up first in the companies that depend on cheap financing to stay upright.
That’s what this deal is…the first visible crack in a corner of the market that’s grown too fast and promised too much.
And while plenty of private credit CLOs are still performing fine, this incident is a reminder that the whole space is more sensitive to rate pressure, valuation slippage, and shaky underwriting than people wanted to believe.
tweet
When a BlackRock CLO Blinks First
This BlackRock CLO is one of those moments where the veneer slips and you get to see what’s been hiding underneath. A deal that was supposed to be safe, highly rated tranches, diversified loans, steady income is now failing core tests because the value of the loans backing it has dropped too far.
That’s not supposed to happen in these structures. When it does, it’s a sign the assumptions baked into the boom years are colliding with the reality of higher rates and weaker borrowers.
What Actually Went Wrong
This particular CLO was built in late 2021, right when private credit was white hot. Money was pouring in, competition was intense, and underwriting standards quietly softened across the industry. Everyone wanted the yield, and deals got done that probably wouldn’t have passed muster in a more normal environment.
Now the loans inside the portfolio,
some to companies like Renovo Home Partners or Pluralsight are showing real stress. One borrower’s debt was written down to zero. Others are sliding in that direction. As those loans lose value, the CLO’s over collateralization test keeps failing, because the bondholders aren’t as protected as the math originally promised.
To keep the deal from flipping into full defensive mode, BlackRock had to do something managers almost never do…waive some of its management fees to prop up the structure. That alone tells you how tight things are.
The Bigger Signal Behind the Headlines
One CLO failing tests doesn’t break the credit system. But it does puncture the narrative that private credit was offering equity like returns with bank loan safety. These loans were made in an era of cheap money, zero rates, and fierce competition. Once rates shot higher and the real economy softened, the cracks were always going to show up first in the companies that depend on cheap financing to stay upright.
That’s what this deal is…the first visible crack in a corner of the market that’s grown too fast and promised too much.
And while plenty of private credit CLOs are still performing fine, this incident is a reminder that the whole space is more sensitive to rate pressure, valuation slippage, and shaky underwriting than people wanted to believe.
tweet