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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Mastercard currently presents one of the more attractive risk/reward profiles among large-cap stocks, based on its combination of high-quality fundamentals, durable growth outlook, & a valuation that appears reasonable relative to historical norms & peers 💳
$MA
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Mastercard currently presents one of the more attractive risk/reward profiles among large-cap stocks, based on its combination of high-quality fundamentals, durable growth outlook, & a valuation that appears reasonable relative to historical norms & peers 💳
$MA
Mastercard is trading at its lowest valuation in the past year (P/E & FCF Yield) 💸
Here’s $MA projected CAGR through 2028 assuming consensus EPS hits $25.86:
32x P/E: $827💵 … ~16.1% CAGR
31x P/E: $801💵 … ~14.9% CAGR
30x P/E: $775💵 … ~13.7% CAGR
29x P/E: $749💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
28x P/E: $724💵 … ~11.3% CAGR
27x P/E: $698💵 … ~10.0% CAGR tweet
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Wasteland Capital
Six Flags now down more than 50% since Travis Kelce announced his investment a month ago. Ouch. Not $FUN!
At least Taylor has money, right? https://t.co/YrCWQbCg1E
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Six Flags now down more than 50% since Travis Kelce announced his investment a month ago. Ouch. Not $FUN!
At least Taylor has money, right? https://t.co/YrCWQbCg1E
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Nancy Pelosi has lost $4M in the stock market today, per our estimates.
She is now worth just $270M. https://t.co/KQgQNdKdcp
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Representative Nancy Pelosi has lost $4M in the stock market today, per our estimates.
She is now worth just $270M. https://t.co/KQgQNdKdcp
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WealthyReadings
Shared two important write up with subs today.
- A review of the $PYPL conference at Citi Bank.
- A portfolio modifications detail talking about $DUOL $TSLA $ALAB $NBIS $TMDX & more.
Link's in bio.
It is important to keep our head cool & focus on our system in days like this. https://t.co/FpDsUu4L3s
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Shared two important write up with subs today.
- A review of the $PYPL conference at Citi Bank.
- A portfolio modifications detail talking about $DUOL $TSLA $ALAB $NBIS $TMDX & more.
Link's in bio.
It is important to keep our head cool & focus on our system in days like this. https://t.co/FpDsUu4L3s
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EndGame Macro
When Nvidia’s Rally Runs Into the Jobs Report
What makes that $900B round trip in NVDA interesting is that it lines up almost perfectly with a shift in the macro, not anything about Nvidia’s business.
The first leg up is easy to explain…blow out earnings, guidance still strong, everyone underweight the name scrambles to buy. That’s your +$450B positioning and FOMO doing what they always do around a flagship story stock.
The second leg, the give back starts once the jobs report lands and people actually process what it means. The data showed a labor market clearly losing momentum, with softer hiring and weaker revisions, but not an outright crack. In other words, growth is cooling, margins will get harder to defend, but the macro picture isn’t bad enough to guarantee another big helping of monetary support. Rate cut odds for December shifted toward hold, and suddenly the backdrop that justified paying any price for long duration growth stopped looking so friendly.
In that environment, a name like NVDA becomes the perfect source of cash…huge run up, crowded long, still great fundamentals but now sitting on top of a less forgiving policy and growth mix. So the post earnings squeeze turns into a post jobs derisking. The $900B swing is the tape repricing an AI champion to match a labor market that’s slowing and a Fed that might not be as eager to reflate the whole party.
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When Nvidia’s Rally Runs Into the Jobs Report
What makes that $900B round trip in NVDA interesting is that it lines up almost perfectly with a shift in the macro, not anything about Nvidia’s business.
The first leg up is easy to explain…blow out earnings, guidance still strong, everyone underweight the name scrambles to buy. That’s your +$450B positioning and FOMO doing what they always do around a flagship story stock.
The second leg, the give back starts once the jobs report lands and people actually process what it means. The data showed a labor market clearly losing momentum, with softer hiring and weaker revisions, but not an outright crack. In other words, growth is cooling, margins will get harder to defend, but the macro picture isn’t bad enough to guarantee another big helping of monetary support. Rate cut odds for December shifted toward hold, and suddenly the backdrop that justified paying any price for long duration growth stopped looking so friendly.
In that environment, a name like NVDA becomes the perfect source of cash…huge run up, crowded long, still great fundamentals but now sitting on top of a less forgiving policy and growth mix. So the post earnings squeeze turns into a post jobs derisking. The $900B swing is the tape repricing an AI champion to match a labor market that’s slowing and a Fed that might not be as eager to reflate the whole party.
Today's move in Nvidia is truly historic.
Between 4:00 AM ET yesterday and 2:00 PM ET today, Nvidia, $NVDA, both ADDED and LOST $450 billion in market cap.
That's a $900 billion swing in less than 36 hours. https://t.co/BUbpi9bjzj tweet
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EndGame Macro
From Calm to Caution And Why the VIX Is Climbing
The VIX isn’t magic. It’s just the market’s price for protection, the cost of buying insurance on the S&P. When it jumps like this, it means people suddenly care about protection again. And today’s tape explains exactly why.
Stocks didn’t just drift lower; they rolled over in unison. The S&P, Nasdaq, Dow…all red. Mega caps that usually cushion the index like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet were selling off at the same time. That kind of broad weakness almost always pushes the VIX higher, because it tells traders the problem isn’t one company or one sector. It’s sentiment.
A Shift in Mood, Not a Mystery Spike
For months, the market behaved like volatility didn’t matter. Every dip was bought, every scare faded, and the VIX spent most of its time pinned in the teens. That only happens when investors are comfortable, maybe too comfortable…selling options, taking on risk, and assuming the Fed would keep the floor under the market.
But today the psychological anchor moved.
The jobs report made it clear the economy is cooling. And because there’s no
guarantee with another rate cut in December, the market suddenly had to price in a less supportive backdrop. Couple that with crowded positions in tech and crypto unwinding at the same time, and people who were happy to ignore risk all year started reaching for hedges.
When everyone wants protection at once, option prices jump. That’s all the VIX is reflecting.
My Read
The market is shifting from we don’t need hedges to maybe we should cover ourselves a bit, and that change in mindset shows up instantly in volatility. The move in the VIX isn’t telling you something is breaking. It’s telling you traders finally stopped treating volatility like free money.
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From Calm to Caution And Why the VIX Is Climbing
The VIX isn’t magic. It’s just the market’s price for protection, the cost of buying insurance on the S&P. When it jumps like this, it means people suddenly care about protection again. And today’s tape explains exactly why.
Stocks didn’t just drift lower; they rolled over in unison. The S&P, Nasdaq, Dow…all red. Mega caps that usually cushion the index like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet were selling off at the same time. That kind of broad weakness almost always pushes the VIX higher, because it tells traders the problem isn’t one company or one sector. It’s sentiment.
A Shift in Mood, Not a Mystery Spike
For months, the market behaved like volatility didn’t matter. Every dip was bought, every scare faded, and the VIX spent most of its time pinned in the teens. That only happens when investors are comfortable, maybe too comfortable…selling options, taking on risk, and assuming the Fed would keep the floor under the market.
But today the psychological anchor moved.
The jobs report made it clear the economy is cooling. And because there’s no
guarantee with another rate cut in December, the market suddenly had to price in a less supportive backdrop. Couple that with crowded positions in tech and crypto unwinding at the same time, and people who were happy to ignore risk all year started reaching for hedges.
When everyone wants protection at once, option prices jump. That’s all the VIX is reflecting.
My Read
The market is shifting from we don’t need hedges to maybe we should cover ourselves a bit, and that change in mindset shows up instantly in volatility. The move in the VIX isn’t telling you something is breaking. It’s telling you traders finally stopped treating volatility like free money.
JUST IN 🚨: CBOE Volatility Index $VIX on track for its highest close since April tweet
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EndGame Macro
From Pandemic Darling to Retail Straggler…Target’s Repricing Explained
When you look at Target’s chart, you can almost read the company’s last six years without needing a single earnings report. You see the huge run up during the pandemic when stimulus checks, work from home nesting, and a shift toward
nice but not necessary goods pushed Target into a lane it wasn’t used to. That was the peak of the brand moment…discretionary spending was strong, and people treated Target like a hybrid of convenience and lifestyle.
Then you see the slow, persistent unraveling. Every rally is smaller than the one before. Every sell off digs a little deeper. And now the stock has drifted all the way back to where it was six years ago. That’s the market resetting its entire view of what this company is worth.
Under the Hood, the Business Is Telling the Same Story
Sales have been slipping for three straight quarters. Comparable sales are down. Net sales are down. Earnings are sliding. And they just announced 1,800 corporate layoffs not frontline or supply chain cuts, but headquarters cuts. That’s always a sign that management is trying to buy time…tighten the structure, cut costs, simplify operations.
The bigger issue is consumer behavior. Target thrives when people feel comfortable spending a little extra on style, home goods, kids stuff, and impulse buys. This cycle is the opposite…shoppers are tired, stretched, and more price sensitive.
What the Market Is Really Pricing In
This isn’t the stock of a company going through a rough patch, it’s the chart of a company being reclassified. Target is no longer being treated like a steady compounder with a strong brand advantage. It’s being priced like a cyclical retailer tied to a stressed middle income consumer, forced to cut costs rather than grow its way out.
The layoffs, the weaker comps, the guidance cut, they’re all symptoms of that deeper shift. And the chart simply reflects the market accepting a new reality that Target has to prove it can grow again, not just hope the old playbook still works.
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From Pandemic Darling to Retail Straggler…Target’s Repricing Explained
When you look at Target’s chart, you can almost read the company’s last six years without needing a single earnings report. You see the huge run up during the pandemic when stimulus checks, work from home nesting, and a shift toward
nice but not necessary goods pushed Target into a lane it wasn’t used to. That was the peak of the brand moment…discretionary spending was strong, and people treated Target like a hybrid of convenience and lifestyle.
Then you see the slow, persistent unraveling. Every rally is smaller than the one before. Every sell off digs a little deeper. And now the stock has drifted all the way back to where it was six years ago. That’s the market resetting its entire view of what this company is worth.
Under the Hood, the Business Is Telling the Same Story
Sales have been slipping for three straight quarters. Comparable sales are down. Net sales are down. Earnings are sliding. And they just announced 1,800 corporate layoffs not frontline or supply chain cuts, but headquarters cuts. That’s always a sign that management is trying to buy time…tighten the structure, cut costs, simplify operations.
The bigger issue is consumer behavior. Target thrives when people feel comfortable spending a little extra on style, home goods, kids stuff, and impulse buys. This cycle is the opposite…shoppers are tired, stretched, and more price sensitive.
What the Market Is Really Pricing In
This isn’t the stock of a company going through a rough patch, it’s the chart of a company being reclassified. Target is no longer being treated like a steady compounder with a strong brand advantage. It’s being priced like a cyclical retailer tied to a stressed middle income consumer, forced to cut costs rather than grow its way out.
The layoffs, the weaker comps, the guidance cut, they’re all symptoms of that deeper shift. And the chart simply reflects the market accepting a new reality that Target has to prove it can grow again, not just hope the old playbook still works.
BREAKING 🚨: Target
$TGT has now plunged to its lowest price in more than 6 years 📉📉 tweet