Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
tweet
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here. tweet
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
tweet
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here. tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Google just surpassed Microsoft to become the world's 3rd largest company by market cap.
$GOOGL $MSFT https://t.co/XxxIu9NRIj
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Google just surpassed Microsoft to become the world's 3rd largest company by market cap.
$GOOGL $MSFT https://t.co/XxxIu9NRIj
tweet
WealthyReadings
I constantly try to look for the best possible set up. And build large positions once I find it. My conditions are pretty strict.
1. Strong fundamentals and narratives.
2. Correct valuation or undervalued.
3. Positive or neutral price action.
What stock would fit those today?
tweet
I constantly try to look for the best possible set up. And build large positions once I find it. My conditions are pretty strict.
1. Strong fundamentals and narratives.
2. Correct valuation or undervalued.
3. Positive or neutral price action.
What stock would fit those today?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Michael Guest just filed a purchase of Monolithic Power stock, $MPWR.
It is his first trade filed in almost a year.
Guest is the chairman of the House Ethics Committee. https://t.co/LSFKNNC78M
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Michael Guest just filed a purchase of Monolithic Power stock, $MPWR.
It is his first trade filed in almost a year.
Guest is the chairman of the House Ethics Committee. https://t.co/LSFKNNC78M
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$WMT Walmart Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Revenue +6% Y/Y to $179.5B ($4.3B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.62 ($0.02 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +4.5%.
• E-commerce +27% Y/Y.
• Advertising +53% Y/Y.
FY26 Net sales growth outlook:
• +4.8% to 5.1% Y/Y (0.7pp raise). https://t.co/H2cDA4uWo0
tweet
$WMT Walmart Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Revenue +6% Y/Y to $179.5B ($4.3B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.62 ($0.02 beat).
• Walmart US comp sales +4.5%.
• E-commerce +27% Y/Y.
• Advertising +53% Y/Y.
FY26 Net sales growth outlook:
• +4.8% to 5.1% Y/Y (0.7pp raise). https://t.co/H2cDA4uWo0
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.09x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.37%
•5-Year Mean: 2.57%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in operating cash flow & ~47% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $94.19B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.94B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 60x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.3%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $386.06B
•2025E: $714.47B
•CAGR: 13.10%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2020: $31.02B
•2025E: $21.17B
•CAGR: (7%)
*$76.15B 2027 FCF estimate (elevated near-term CapEx temporarily suppressing FCF, setting the stage for a strong rebound)
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $2.09
•2025E: $7.07
•CAGR: 27.60%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 10.20B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.80B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 50.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.1%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in OCF & ~47% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.01 (20% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $17.03 (31% YoY)
2027E: $20.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $20.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $355💵 … ~24% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $334💵 … ~21% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $313💵 … ~17% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $292💵 … ~14% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
Keep in mind ~15x P/OCF has historically marked the floor and lower boundary for $AMZN
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
☁️AWS revenue: $121.93B
📈Ads revenue: $64.61B
Combined, these segments generated $186.54 net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $227💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. tweet
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.09x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.37%
•5-Year Mean: 2.57%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in operating cash flow & ~47% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $94.19B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.94B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 60x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.3%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $386.06B
•2025E: $714.47B
•CAGR: 13.10%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗*
•2020: $31.02B
•2025E: $21.17B
•CAGR: (7%)
*$76.15B 2027 FCF estimate (elevated near-term CapEx temporarily suppressing FCF, setting the stage for a strong rebound)
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $2.09
•2025E: $7.07
•CAGR: 27.60%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 10.20B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.80B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 50.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.1%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~68% MORE in OCF & ~47% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.01 (20% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $17.03 (31% YoY)
2027E: $20.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $20.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $355💵 … ~24% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $334💵 … ~21% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $313💵 … ~17% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $292💵 … ~14% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
Keep in mind ~15x P/OCF has historically marked the floor and lower boundary for $AMZN
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
☁️AWS revenue: $121.93B
📈Ads revenue: $64.61B
Combined, these segments generated $186.54 net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $227💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️
𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.
𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. tweet