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The top 5 now trade at ~30× forward PE.
All of them.
$NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN https://t.co/jWSJA5bkq9
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The top 5 now trade at ~30× forward PE.
All of them.
$NVDA $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN https://t.co/jWSJA5bkq9
tweet
EndGame Macro
The Minutes Sound Calm… Until You Actually Read Them
If you read the minutes slowly and not just the headline summary, you start to feel the discomfort between the lines. The Fed is trying to talk like things are stable, but the details make it pretty clear they don’t fully trust the footing of this economy. They’re cutting rates with inflation still above target not because they’re suddenly confident, but because the risks they’re looking at have shifted.
The biggest tell is in the plumbing. Funding markets are showing signs of strain again, repo rates popping above interest on reserves, the fed funds rate drifting higher than they’d like, banks hoarding liquidity late in the day, and the Fed’s own backstop facilities getting more use than anyone wants to admit. Those are the quiet signals that the system is running tighter than the narrative suggests. Ending QT on December 1 makes perfect sense in that context; it’s less about inflation and more about avoiding a repeat of the moments in the past when things suddenly broke.
A Labor Market That’s Losing Momentum
The minutes also sound more uneasy about jobs than the press conference tone let on. They describe a labor market that’s cooling in a way that doesn’t feel orderly…slower hiring, a bit more unemployment, and not a lot of churn. And because the shutdown delayed major data releases, they had to rely more on private indicators and anecdotes. When you cut rates while flying partially blind, it usually means you’re trying to get ahead of a problem that isn’t yet showing up cleanly in the headline numbers. They’re very aware that if the job market turns sharply, it will be hard to reverse the damage.
Growth Looks Fine on Paper, Fragile in Reality
On the surface, growth is still labeled moderate, but the details don’t paint a broad, healthy economy. More spending is coming from high income households riding strong equity markets, while lower income consumers are scaling back and becoming more price sensitive. Business investment is strong in AI and data center infrastructure but soft elsewhere. Housing is still constrained by affordability. And growth abroad especially in China and Europe is weak, which is a problem given how trade exposed the U.S. economy remains. All of that adds up to an economy that’s being held up by a narrow set of forces rather than a wide base of strength.
Uneasy About Markets, Even as They Rally
Another subtle theme is their discomfort with the way financial markets are behaving. Equity valuations are elevated, big tech is carrying the indices, hedge fund leverage in Treasuries is high, and parts of private credit are showing cracks. They don’t say it dramatically, but you can tell they’re worried about a market that seems too calm in some places and too enthusiastic in others. When a central bank mentions the risk of a “disorderly fall in equity prices,” you know they see the potential for things to turn quickly.
The Real Message Beneath the Polite Language
Put it all together and the tone becomes clearer. The Fed isn’t easing because the economy is on solid ground; they’re easing because too many small stress points are accumulating at once…softer jobs, a narrower growth base, fragile funding markets, and pockets of leverage that could become problems if conditions tighten further.
They’re not admitting fear, but they’re acting like a group that wants to buy insurance before anything breaks. And in its own way, that tells you more about the real state of the economy than the official forecast ever will.
tweet
The Minutes Sound Calm… Until You Actually Read Them
If you read the minutes slowly and not just the headline summary, you start to feel the discomfort between the lines. The Fed is trying to talk like things are stable, but the details make it pretty clear they don’t fully trust the footing of this economy. They’re cutting rates with inflation still above target not because they’re suddenly confident, but because the risks they’re looking at have shifted.
The biggest tell is in the plumbing. Funding markets are showing signs of strain again, repo rates popping above interest on reserves, the fed funds rate drifting higher than they’d like, banks hoarding liquidity late in the day, and the Fed’s own backstop facilities getting more use than anyone wants to admit. Those are the quiet signals that the system is running tighter than the narrative suggests. Ending QT on December 1 makes perfect sense in that context; it’s less about inflation and more about avoiding a repeat of the moments in the past when things suddenly broke.
A Labor Market That’s Losing Momentum
The minutes also sound more uneasy about jobs than the press conference tone let on. They describe a labor market that’s cooling in a way that doesn’t feel orderly…slower hiring, a bit more unemployment, and not a lot of churn. And because the shutdown delayed major data releases, they had to rely more on private indicators and anecdotes. When you cut rates while flying partially blind, it usually means you’re trying to get ahead of a problem that isn’t yet showing up cleanly in the headline numbers. They’re very aware that if the job market turns sharply, it will be hard to reverse the damage.
Growth Looks Fine on Paper, Fragile in Reality
On the surface, growth is still labeled moderate, but the details don’t paint a broad, healthy economy. More spending is coming from high income households riding strong equity markets, while lower income consumers are scaling back and becoming more price sensitive. Business investment is strong in AI and data center infrastructure but soft elsewhere. Housing is still constrained by affordability. And growth abroad especially in China and Europe is weak, which is a problem given how trade exposed the U.S. economy remains. All of that adds up to an economy that’s being held up by a narrow set of forces rather than a wide base of strength.
Uneasy About Markets, Even as They Rally
Another subtle theme is their discomfort with the way financial markets are behaving. Equity valuations are elevated, big tech is carrying the indices, hedge fund leverage in Treasuries is high, and parts of private credit are showing cracks. They don’t say it dramatically, but you can tell they’re worried about a market that seems too calm in some places and too enthusiastic in others. When a central bank mentions the risk of a “disorderly fall in equity prices,” you know they see the potential for things to turn quickly.
The Real Message Beneath the Polite Language
Put it all together and the tone becomes clearer. The Fed isn’t easing because the economy is on solid ground; they’re easing because too many small stress points are accumulating at once…softer jobs, a narrower growth base, fragile funding markets, and pockets of leverage that could become problems if conditions tighten further.
They’re not admitting fear, but they’re acting like a group that wants to buy insurance before anything breaks. And in its own way, that tells you more about the real state of the economy than the official forecast ever will.
We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held October 28-29, 2025: https://t.co/0loYq48ZXZ tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) on X
We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held October 28-29, 2025: https://t.co/0loYq48ZXZ
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The DOJ has charged Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick with stealing $5 million in FEMA funds.
She allegedly used the money to support her campaign. https://t.co/o3v8pVOUNx
tweet
BREAKING: The DOJ has charged Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick with stealing $5 million in FEMA funds.
She allegedly used the money to support her campaign. https://t.co/o3v8pVOUNx
tweet
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EndGame Macro
Why the Yen Is Sliding And Why It Might Not Stay That Way
The yen’s drop is the kind of move you get when Japan’s policy choices and the global backdrop push in opposite directions. When that happens, a currency doesn’t ease lower, it gives way.
Japan just reported a negative GDP quarter and immediately followed it with a huge fiscal package. That tells investors the government is leaning harder on spending and issuing more debt. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is trying to exit decades of ultra easy money, but it’s doing it so slowly that it still feels more symbolic than real. Yields are rising, but gently. The market wasn’t looking for gentle, it was looking for conviction.
Put those two things together and you don’t get a picture of a country moving confidently into a new regime. You get a picture of a country trying to stimulate and normalize at the same time, which markets usually interpret as hesitation. And when a central bank looks hesitant in a heavily indebted economy with a history of deflation, investors don’t wait to find out how the story ends. They leave first.
Why Higher Yields Aren’t Helping
It’s true that JGB yields have climbed. But the reason they’re climbing is what matters.
Japan went from paying basically nothing to paying 1.8% on the 10 year and a bit above 3% on the long end. That’s a big shift for Japan, but not nearly enough to compete with U.S. Treasuries at 4%. Global capital doesn’t move just because yields improved; it moves when yields become competitive.
And right now Japan’s yields aren’t rising because growth is strong or because the BOJ has reestablished credibility. They’re rising because inflation lingered, the yen weakened, and Japan’s fiscal footprint is getting bigger. When yields rise for those reasons, the currency usually weakens rather than strengthens.
Where the Yen Carry Trade Comes In
This is the part that ties everything together. For decades, the yen was the cheapest funding currency in the world. Traders borrowed yen at almost no cost and used it to buy higher yielding assets everywhere else. As long as Japan kept rates near zero and the rest of the world offered better returns, it was the easiest trade in global macro.
That dynamic hasn’t disappeared. U.S. yields remain much higher than Japanese yields across the curve. Even with JGBs drifting up, the gap is wide enough that borrowing yen and buying dollar assets is still attractive. When that machine keeps running, the yen stays weak.
Right now, Japan is in that awkward first stage where yields have risen enough to make people nervous, but not enough to shut down the carry trade. So money keeps flowing out, USD/JPY keeps climbing, and speculators keep leaning because they don’t think the BOJ is ready or able to truly defend the currency.
What Happens If the World Slips Into Recession
If the global economy actually rolls over, everything you’re seeing now flips. The same carry trade that pushes the yen weaker in good times becomes the reason it snaps stronger in bad times.
In a real downturn, U.S. yields collapse, risk appetite fades, and anyone who borrowed yen to buy higher yielding assets has to unwind those positions. Unwinding means buying yen back, fast. That’s when USD/JPY doesn’t drift, it snaps lower. Not because Japan is booming, but because deleveraging forces the yen higher.
It happens every cycle.
Weak yen is late cycle.
Strong yen is crisis.
The Bigger Picture
Japan is in the middle of trying to leave the old deflation world, but it hasn’t fully convinced markets it can live comfortably in the new one. Early transitions are messy: yields up for the wrong reasons, a central bank that’s still too cautious, and a currency that keeps sliding.
But none of this is permanent. When the BOJ finally moves decisively, or when global conditions break the carry trade, the yen won’t drift back, it will snap back.
For now, Japan hasn’t closed the policy gap. So the yen is doing the adjustin[...]
Why the Yen Is Sliding And Why It Might Not Stay That Way
The yen’s drop is the kind of move you get when Japan’s policy choices and the global backdrop push in opposite directions. When that happens, a currency doesn’t ease lower, it gives way.
Japan just reported a negative GDP quarter and immediately followed it with a huge fiscal package. That tells investors the government is leaning harder on spending and issuing more debt. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is trying to exit decades of ultra easy money, but it’s doing it so slowly that it still feels more symbolic than real. Yields are rising, but gently. The market wasn’t looking for gentle, it was looking for conviction.
Put those two things together and you don’t get a picture of a country moving confidently into a new regime. You get a picture of a country trying to stimulate and normalize at the same time, which markets usually interpret as hesitation. And when a central bank looks hesitant in a heavily indebted economy with a history of deflation, investors don’t wait to find out how the story ends. They leave first.
Why Higher Yields Aren’t Helping
It’s true that JGB yields have climbed. But the reason they’re climbing is what matters.
Japan went from paying basically nothing to paying 1.8% on the 10 year and a bit above 3% on the long end. That’s a big shift for Japan, but not nearly enough to compete with U.S. Treasuries at 4%. Global capital doesn’t move just because yields improved; it moves when yields become competitive.
And right now Japan’s yields aren’t rising because growth is strong or because the BOJ has reestablished credibility. They’re rising because inflation lingered, the yen weakened, and Japan’s fiscal footprint is getting bigger. When yields rise for those reasons, the currency usually weakens rather than strengthens.
Where the Yen Carry Trade Comes In
This is the part that ties everything together. For decades, the yen was the cheapest funding currency in the world. Traders borrowed yen at almost no cost and used it to buy higher yielding assets everywhere else. As long as Japan kept rates near zero and the rest of the world offered better returns, it was the easiest trade in global macro.
That dynamic hasn’t disappeared. U.S. yields remain much higher than Japanese yields across the curve. Even with JGBs drifting up, the gap is wide enough that borrowing yen and buying dollar assets is still attractive. When that machine keeps running, the yen stays weak.
Right now, Japan is in that awkward first stage where yields have risen enough to make people nervous, but not enough to shut down the carry trade. So money keeps flowing out, USD/JPY keeps climbing, and speculators keep leaning because they don’t think the BOJ is ready or able to truly defend the currency.
What Happens If the World Slips Into Recession
If the global economy actually rolls over, everything you’re seeing now flips. The same carry trade that pushes the yen weaker in good times becomes the reason it snaps stronger in bad times.
In a real downturn, U.S. yields collapse, risk appetite fades, and anyone who borrowed yen to buy higher yielding assets has to unwind those positions. Unwinding means buying yen back, fast. That’s when USD/JPY doesn’t drift, it snaps lower. Not because Japan is booming, but because deleveraging forces the yen higher.
It happens every cycle.
Weak yen is late cycle.
Strong yen is crisis.
The Bigger Picture
Japan is in the middle of trying to leave the old deflation world, but it hasn’t fully convinced markets it can live comfortably in the new one. Early transitions are messy: yields up for the wrong reasons, a central bank that’s still too cautious, and a currency that keeps sliding.
But none of this is permanent. When the BOJ finally moves decisively, or when global conditions break the carry trade, the yen won’t drift back, it will snap back.
For now, Japan hasn’t closed the policy gap. So the yen is doing the adjustin[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro Why the Yen Is Sliding And Why It Might Not Stay That Way The yen’s drop is the kind of move you get when Japan’s policy choices and the global backdrop push in opposite directions. When that happens, a currency doesn’t ease lower, it gives…
g.
tweet
The Japanese Yen is collapsing:
It’s now down to its weakest level against the US Dollar since January 15th.
All as Japanese government bond yields surge to record highs.
Stimulus will NOT fix your economic problems. https://t.co/3zoCqW3b39 tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: The Fed’s 2026 Stress Test: A Hypothetical Or A Warning About What Comes Next
A What If That Feels Too Real
The Federal Reserve calls its 2026 severely adverse stress test a hypothetical exercise, but the details sound more like a preview of the world we’re drifting toward. It’s officially designed to test bank resilience under extreme shocks, yet the assumptions inside reveal a deeper fear: that the era of disinflation is ending, and the next disruption won’t come from overheating demand but from a short lived inflation scare followed by a sharp deflationary bust.
The Fed’s model is built around a two stage breakdown with stagflation first, deep recession second, mirroring the institution’s anxiety about its own limits. After years of tightening, the world has grown used to high yields and strong dollars, but the financial system itself may not be able to survive them.
Inside the Hypothetical: When Inflation Fears Return
The scenario begins with what looks like a global inflation relapse. In the first quarter, the “Global Market Shock” assumes investors suddenly price in persistent inflation pressures: yields spike across the curve, commodities surge, and the dollar strengthens. Equities crash 54%, BBB spreads blow out to 5.7 percentage points, and the VIX shoots to 72, the kind of volatility only seen in systemic crises.
But this isn’t a random inflation event, it’s driven by non monetary shocks, much like what we see brewing now. Supply chains haven’t fully normalized since 2022, and new tariffs, logistics disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have created a world where inflation can flare without growth improving.
The Real World Setup That Mirrors the Scenario
Recent data confirms this underlying fragility. While inflation has cooled sharply from the 9.1% peak in 2022, disinflation’s progress has stalled. Supply chains are functioning better but not smoothly. As of late 2025:
•Tariffs have surged, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, pushing up input costs and squeezing corporate margins.
•Global logistics remain fragile, with Red Sea attacks, Panama Canal droughts, and slower customs processing disrupting trade routes.
•Energy remains volatile, as geopolitical shocks from Eastern Europe to the Middle East keep oil prices jumpy.
•Wages and service inflation stay sticky, particularly in housing and healthcare, preventing inflation from returning fully to target.
This environment is exactly what the Fed’s stress test anticipates: a false inflation dawn, where prices rise for structural reasons like trade fragmentation, energy, and tariffs triggering tighter financial conditions even as underlying demand weakens.
The Second Act: Deflation After the Panic
Once that inflation scare breaks market confidence, the Fed’s scenario flips violently. Credit seizes up, asset prices collapse, and unemployment soars to 10%. Residential real estate falls 29%, commercial properties 40%, and risk assets never fully recover. Inflation plunges to 1%, policy rates return to 0.1%, and Treasury yields tumble to 2.3% on the 10 year. It’s a self inflicted liquidity trap, a world where fear of inflation births the very deflation it was meant to prevent.
This hypothetical tests whether the financial system can withstand a rapid regime shift from inflation anxiety to funding panic without breaking.
The Broader Message
The Fed’s 2026 scenario may be framed as a stress test, but it doubles as what could be a quiet admission of what’s coming. The Fed is effectively rehearsing how to manage a world defined by permanent instability and where tariffs, energy shocks, and geopolitics keep inflation volatile, and every attempt to control it risks triggering deflation.
The stress test is a hypothetical but not a fantasy. It’s a warning that the new normal is already here, one where inflation fears and liquidity squeezes coexist, and policy itself may become the next systemic risk.
LIVE NOW: Open [...]
RT @onechancefreedm: The Fed’s 2026 Stress Test: A Hypothetical Or A Warning About What Comes Next
A What If That Feels Too Real
The Federal Reserve calls its 2026 severely adverse stress test a hypothetical exercise, but the details sound more like a preview of the world we’re drifting toward. It’s officially designed to test bank resilience under extreme shocks, yet the assumptions inside reveal a deeper fear: that the era of disinflation is ending, and the next disruption won’t come from overheating demand but from a short lived inflation scare followed by a sharp deflationary bust.
The Fed’s model is built around a two stage breakdown with stagflation first, deep recession second, mirroring the institution’s anxiety about its own limits. After years of tightening, the world has grown used to high yields and strong dollars, but the financial system itself may not be able to survive them.
Inside the Hypothetical: When Inflation Fears Return
The scenario begins with what looks like a global inflation relapse. In the first quarter, the “Global Market Shock” assumes investors suddenly price in persistent inflation pressures: yields spike across the curve, commodities surge, and the dollar strengthens. Equities crash 54%, BBB spreads blow out to 5.7 percentage points, and the VIX shoots to 72, the kind of volatility only seen in systemic crises.
But this isn’t a random inflation event, it’s driven by non monetary shocks, much like what we see brewing now. Supply chains haven’t fully normalized since 2022, and new tariffs, logistics disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have created a world where inflation can flare without growth improving.
The Real World Setup That Mirrors the Scenario
Recent data confirms this underlying fragility. While inflation has cooled sharply from the 9.1% peak in 2022, disinflation’s progress has stalled. Supply chains are functioning better but not smoothly. As of late 2025:
•Tariffs have surged, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, pushing up input costs and squeezing corporate margins.
•Global logistics remain fragile, with Red Sea attacks, Panama Canal droughts, and slower customs processing disrupting trade routes.
•Energy remains volatile, as geopolitical shocks from Eastern Europe to the Middle East keep oil prices jumpy.
•Wages and service inflation stay sticky, particularly in housing and healthcare, preventing inflation from returning fully to target.
This environment is exactly what the Fed’s stress test anticipates: a false inflation dawn, where prices rise for structural reasons like trade fragmentation, energy, and tariffs triggering tighter financial conditions even as underlying demand weakens.
The Second Act: Deflation After the Panic
Once that inflation scare breaks market confidence, the Fed’s scenario flips violently. Credit seizes up, asset prices collapse, and unemployment soars to 10%. Residential real estate falls 29%, commercial properties 40%, and risk assets never fully recover. Inflation plunges to 1%, policy rates return to 0.1%, and Treasury yields tumble to 2.3% on the 10 year. It’s a self inflicted liquidity trap, a world where fear of inflation births the very deflation it was meant to prevent.
This hypothetical tests whether the financial system can withstand a rapid regime shift from inflation anxiety to funding panic without breaking.
The Broader Message
The Fed’s 2026 scenario may be framed as a stress test, but it doubles as what could be a quiet admission of what’s coming. The Fed is effectively rehearsing how to manage a world defined by permanent instability and where tariffs, energy shocks, and geopolitics keep inflation volatile, and every attempt to control it risks triggering deflation.
The stress test is a hypothetical but not a fantasy. It’s a warning that the new normal is already here, one where inflation fears and liquidity squeezes coexist, and policy itself may become the next systemic risk.
LIVE NOW: Open [...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro RT @onechancefreedm: The Fed’s 2026 Stress Test: A Hypothetical Or A Warning About What Comes Next A What If That Feels Too Real The Federal Reserve calls its 2026 severely adverse stress test a hypothetical exercise, but the details sound…
Board meeting on stress tests transparency: https://t.co/TH8ICb3DuE - Federal Reserve tweet
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Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
tweet
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here. tweet
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Clark Square Capital
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
tweet
RT @Reignots: None of the sell side dingdongs like $JEF have done a fraction of the alt data work @ClarkSquareCap and @tickerplus have been sharing which is why their analysis is always backwards looking and their price targets always a mirror of yesterday's close. https://t.co/8wbmuB1hza
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here. tweet