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Quiver Quantitative
A brand new account on Polymarket just bet almost $20K that JD Vance will win the 2028 presidential election.
They will win $67K if they are correct. https://t.co/DNlhWEt81c
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A brand new account on Polymarket just bet almost $20K that JD Vance will win the 2028 presidential election.
They will win $67K if they are correct. https://t.co/DNlhWEt81c
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EndGame Macro
DXY Back Over 100 Says More About the World Than the U.S.
Looking at the chart, the dollar popping back above 100 is the market quietly shifting back into I want stability mode. That red line has been a ceiling for months, and the dollar didn’t just touch it… it broke through, slipped under it, and then pushed right back above. That kind of price action is the market saying, “Yeah, I’m comfortable up here.”
It’s subtle, but meaningful. A breakout like that usually happens when global uncertainty outweighs whatever softening is happening domestically.
Why the Dollar Is Catching a Bid Again
When you line the chart up with everything happening globally, the move actually makes sense.
Japan is a great example. The yen has been sliding hard, even as Japanese bond yields hit multi year highs and the government rolls out a massive ¥17 trillion stimulus package. In a healthier environment, you’d expect that combination to strengthen a currency, not weaken it. But markets are reading it as stress, not renewal. A falling yen against rising yields tells you investors are questioning Japan’s fiscal path, not rewarding it.
And that pattern isn’t just Japan.
Europe’s growth outlook is softening. China’s investment and retail demand are sputtering. Emerging markets are dealing with rising debt loads and downgraded forecasts. Globally, the tone is a slowdown with complications, not a broad recovery.
Put that into market language and you get something simple…money is drifting back toward the safest balance sheet it knows…the dollar.
The Bigger Message Behind the Chart
None of this says the U.S. is booming or that the dollar is unbeatable. What it says is that, in a moment when:
•major economies are losing momentum,
•currencies like the yen are flashing vulnerability,
•governments are leaning on stimulus because they’re out of easy options,
…the dollar becomes the least uncertain place to park capital.
That’s why the move back above 100 matters. It isn’t loud. It isn’t dramatic. It’s a quiet signal that global investors are still more comfortable funneling money into USD than taking chances elsewhere.
In markets, that kind of quiet signal often tells you more than a screaming headline.
tweet
DXY Back Over 100 Says More About the World Than the U.S.
Looking at the chart, the dollar popping back above 100 is the market quietly shifting back into I want stability mode. That red line has been a ceiling for months, and the dollar didn’t just touch it… it broke through, slipped under it, and then pushed right back above. That kind of price action is the market saying, “Yeah, I’m comfortable up here.”
It’s subtle, but meaningful. A breakout like that usually happens when global uncertainty outweighs whatever softening is happening domestically.
Why the Dollar Is Catching a Bid Again
When you line the chart up with everything happening globally, the move actually makes sense.
Japan is a great example. The yen has been sliding hard, even as Japanese bond yields hit multi year highs and the government rolls out a massive ¥17 trillion stimulus package. In a healthier environment, you’d expect that combination to strengthen a currency, not weaken it. But markets are reading it as stress, not renewal. A falling yen against rising yields tells you investors are questioning Japan’s fiscal path, not rewarding it.
And that pattern isn’t just Japan.
Europe’s growth outlook is softening. China’s investment and retail demand are sputtering. Emerging markets are dealing with rising debt loads and downgraded forecasts. Globally, the tone is a slowdown with complications, not a broad recovery.
Put that into market language and you get something simple…money is drifting back toward the safest balance sheet it knows…the dollar.
The Bigger Message Behind the Chart
None of this says the U.S. is booming or that the dollar is unbeatable. What it says is that, in a moment when:
•major economies are losing momentum,
•currencies like the yen are flashing vulnerability,
•governments are leaning on stimulus because they’re out of easy options,
…the dollar becomes the least uncertain place to park capital.
That’s why the move back above 100 matters. It isn’t loud. It isn’t dramatic. It’s a quiet signal that global investors are still more comfortable funneling money into USD than taking chances elsewhere.
In markets, that kind of quiet signal often tells you more than a screaming headline.
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY jumps back above 100 📈💵 https://t.co/BJmRXEo2S9 tweet
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EndGame Macro
If the Labor Market Were Strong, We’d Have Seen the Report Already
The official explanation is straightforward: the shutdown froze the BLS, they couldn’t run the October household survey, and because that survey can’t be recreated after the fact, there’s no full report to release. On the surface, it sounds procedural…unfortunate, but innocent.
But when you look at what data is available, and what’s happening in the labor market underneath, the timing feels a lot less accidental.
The Data Didn’t Vanish They Just Chose Not to Publish
The payroll survey, the one businesses submit electronically was collected.
That means the government does have job gains and losses, hours worked, wage growth, sector level hiring trends, and revisions.
Those numbers could easily be released with a disclaimer saying, “household data will be added later.”
Instead, they decided to wait and blend October into the November report that arrives after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. That’s a choice, not a technical impossibility.
Why That Choice Matters Right Now
The Challenger report shows October layoffs surged to the highest level for that month in 22 years. Warehousing, tech, and logistics are cutting aggressively. Planned hiring is the weakest since 2011. That’s an an early sign the labor market is cooling faster than the headlines suggest.
If the official October report showed:
•a jump in unemployment,
•downward revisions to previous months,
•or a clear slowdown in hiring,
it would hit right as policymakers and markets are already nervous about growth, tariffs, and a shaky global backdrop.
Not releasing that picture avoids an uncomfortable moment…one big, clean headline that would have forced everyone to rethink the soft landing story.
And by December, any weakness gets folded into a blended dataset where the inflection is harder to pinpoint.
You don’t need a conspiracy theory to see the incentive structure here. Just basic political instinct.
A Fair Skeptical Read
The most plausible interpretation is that the BLS had enough information to publish something, but that something likely pointed to a softer labor market at a very inconvenient time.
So instead of one sharp data point, we’ll get a blurrier version in mid December.
And in markets, blurry data is often the surest sign that the underlying picture isn’t as pretty as people hoped.
tweet
If the Labor Market Were Strong, We’d Have Seen the Report Already
The official explanation is straightforward: the shutdown froze the BLS, they couldn’t run the October household survey, and because that survey can’t be recreated after the fact, there’s no full report to release. On the surface, it sounds procedural…unfortunate, but innocent.
But when you look at what data is available, and what’s happening in the labor market underneath, the timing feels a lot less accidental.
The Data Didn’t Vanish They Just Chose Not to Publish
The payroll survey, the one businesses submit electronically was collected.
That means the government does have job gains and losses, hours worked, wage growth, sector level hiring trends, and revisions.
Those numbers could easily be released with a disclaimer saying, “household data will be added later.”
Instead, they decided to wait and blend October into the November report that arrives after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. That’s a choice, not a technical impossibility.
Why That Choice Matters Right Now
The Challenger report shows October layoffs surged to the highest level for that month in 22 years. Warehousing, tech, and logistics are cutting aggressively. Planned hiring is the weakest since 2011. That’s an an early sign the labor market is cooling faster than the headlines suggest.
If the official October report showed:
•a jump in unemployment,
•downward revisions to previous months,
•or a clear slowdown in hiring,
it would hit right as policymakers and markets are already nervous about growth, tariffs, and a shaky global backdrop.
Not releasing that picture avoids an uncomfortable moment…one big, clean headline that would have forced everyone to rethink the soft landing story.
And by December, any weakness gets folded into a blended dataset where the inflection is harder to pinpoint.
You don’t need a conspiracy theory to see the incentive structure here. Just basic political instinct.
A Fair Skeptical Read
The most plausible interpretation is that the BLS had enough information to publish something, but that something likely pointed to a softer labor market at a very inconvenient time.
So instead of one sharp data point, we’ll get a blurrier version in mid December.
And in markets, blurry data is often the surest sign that the underlying picture isn’t as pretty as people hoped.
tweet
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App Economy Insights
$NVDA NVIDIA Q3 FY26 (October quarter).
• Revenue +62% Y/Y to $57B ($1.9B beat).
• Operating margin 63% (+1pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.30 ($0.04 beat).
Q4 FY26 guidance:
• Revenue $65B ($3.2B beat). https://t.co/Ft2XtFZqMN
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$NVDA NVIDIA Q3 FY26 (October quarter).
• Revenue +62% Y/Y to $57B ($1.9B beat).
• Operating margin 63% (+1pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.30 ($0.04 beat).
Q4 FY26 guidance:
• Revenue $65B ($3.2B beat). https://t.co/Ft2XtFZqMN
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Quartr
$NVDA Q3 2026
"Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out" - Jensen Huang
Revenue +62%
*Data Center +66%
*Gaming +30%
*Professional Vis. +56%
*Automotive +32%
EBIT +65%
*marg. 63% (62)
EPS +67% https://t.co/caDoKCZny5
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$NVDA Q3 2026
"Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out" - Jensen Huang
Revenue +62%
*Data Center +66%
*Gaming +30%
*Professional Vis. +56%
*Automotive +32%
EBIT +65%
*marg. 63% (62)
EPS +67% https://t.co/caDoKCZny5
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Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials? https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn
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RT @BradoCapital: is @fiscal_ai the only platform in the world that already has all of Nvidia's financials? https://t.co/1pRpElwgXn
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Fiscal.ai
Nvidia just crushed Q3 estimates
Data Center Revenue +66%
Gaming Revenue +30%
Professional Visualization +56%
Automotive +32%
$NVDA: +4.1% after hours https://t.co/Bis63PgBTz
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Nvidia just crushed Q3 estimates
Data Center Revenue +66%
Gaming Revenue +30%
Professional Visualization +56%
Automotive +32%
$NVDA: +4.1% after hours https://t.co/Bis63PgBTz
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Fiscal.ai
$4B to $110B in operating income in less than 3 years.
Absolutely outrageous growth.
$NVDA https://t.co/LbkHhnBylj
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$4B to $110B in operating income in less than 3 years.
Absolutely outrageous growth.
$NVDA https://t.co/LbkHhnBylj
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