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Clark Square Capital
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here.
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LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here.
A thread on Mytheresa $MYTE, one of my favorite opportunities in the market today.
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EndGame Macro
The Crowd Loves NVDA But The Smart Money Is Stepping Back
The NVDA chart is basically telling you the stock has been running hotter than the story itself. Price keeps pushing to new highs, but momentum underneath is fading, that RSI divergence is the kind of thing you usually see when buyers aren’t as aggressive as they once were. The monthly candle forming right now also has that exhaustion look to it. Not a meltdown, just a sense that the move is getting heavy.
And that distance from trend line chart drives it home. When a stock pulls 400–500% above its long term growth path, it means expectations have drifted into a place where even great news feels ordinary. That’s where NVDA is sitting right now.
It doesn’t mean it has to fall apart. It just means the bar has been raised to a level where even amazing might not be enough.
Why the Big Sellers Matter
Seeing names like SoftBank, Thiel, Burry, Millennium, Citadel, D.E. Shaw, and Point72 trim or step aside isn’t a coincidence. These are players who think in probabilities and risk vs reward. When they lighten up before earnings, it usually means they don’t love the setup, not the company.
NVDA has become the ultimate consensus trade. Everyone owns it. Everyone believes in AI. And when a stock becomes that crowded, the risk shifts from what if the business slows? to what if the narrative just hits a speed bump? That’s the part big funds don’t like sticking around for.
What to Expect Today
Expectations are sky high. Something around $54–55B in revenue and $1.25+ EPS is already baked in. A normal beat won’t move the needle…NVDA probably needs a beat, a raise, and a clear runway for future AI spending to really push higher from here.
My Honest Read
•A beat but not enough outcome is the most likely.
•A cautious guide could be the thing that triggers a deeper pullback.
•A true upside surprise, one that blows out guidance and resets the whole AI narrative again is possible, but the probability feels lower than the market wants to admit.
The long term AI story is still intact. But in the short term, this feels like a stock that’s priced for perfection walking into a moment where perfection might not be on the menu.
That’s the tension you’re seeing in these charts, the business looks strong, but the setup looks fragile.
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The Crowd Loves NVDA But The Smart Money Is Stepping Back
The NVDA chart is basically telling you the stock has been running hotter than the story itself. Price keeps pushing to new highs, but momentum underneath is fading, that RSI divergence is the kind of thing you usually see when buyers aren’t as aggressive as they once were. The monthly candle forming right now also has that exhaustion look to it. Not a meltdown, just a sense that the move is getting heavy.
And that distance from trend line chart drives it home. When a stock pulls 400–500% above its long term growth path, it means expectations have drifted into a place where even great news feels ordinary. That’s where NVDA is sitting right now.
It doesn’t mean it has to fall apart. It just means the bar has been raised to a level where even amazing might not be enough.
Why the Big Sellers Matter
Seeing names like SoftBank, Thiel, Burry, Millennium, Citadel, D.E. Shaw, and Point72 trim or step aside isn’t a coincidence. These are players who think in probabilities and risk vs reward. When they lighten up before earnings, it usually means they don’t love the setup, not the company.
NVDA has become the ultimate consensus trade. Everyone owns it. Everyone believes in AI. And when a stock becomes that crowded, the risk shifts from what if the business slows? to what if the narrative just hits a speed bump? That’s the part big funds don’t like sticking around for.
What to Expect Today
Expectations are sky high. Something around $54–55B in revenue and $1.25+ EPS is already baked in. A normal beat won’t move the needle…NVDA probably needs a beat, a raise, and a clear runway for future AI spending to really push higher from here.
My Honest Read
•A beat but not enough outcome is the most likely.
•A cautious guide could be the thing that triggers a deeper pullback.
•A true upside surprise, one that blows out guidance and resets the whole AI narrative again is possible, but the probability feels lower than the market wants to admit.
The long term AI story is still intact. But in the short term, this feels like a stock that’s priced for perfection walking into a moment where perfection might not be on the menu.
That’s the tension you’re seeing in these charts, the business looks strong, but the setup looks fragile.
This is NVDA ahead of earnings:
– Potential bearish engulfing on the monthly chart
– Bearish divergence
– % distance from its exponential growth trend echoes the dot-com bubble.
If earnings miss expectations, it’s highly likely we’ll enter a deeper corrective phase. https://t.co/tJhzZRSATD tweet
AkhenOsiris
@ConsensusGurus the Goog is up because of Berkshire, some guy told me in the elevator 😂
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@ConsensusGurus the Goog is up because of Berkshire, some guy told me in the elevator 😂
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The market now predicts that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting.
Polymarket now gives just 32% odds of a decrease. https://t.co/o275xBIUQ0
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BREAKING: The market now predicts that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting.
Polymarket now gives just 32% odds of a decrease. https://t.co/o275xBIUQ0
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EndGame Macro
Everyone Copies Buffett’s Holdings. Burry’s Copying His Courage
What Burry’s signaling with this old Buffett article goes way deeper than nostalgia. He’s using it to remind people how markets tend to treat anyone who steps off the conveyor belt, anyone who refuses to buy what’s already popular and refuses to pretend that price doesn’t matter.
Back in 1999, Apple was ignored and even mocked by value investors, while the Buffett crowd was still worshipping Coke, AmEx, and Disney. The article points out something people forget…those supposedly bulletproof brands spent more than a decade delivering flat or negative real returns. Meanwhile, the unloved misfit Apple actually fit Buffett’s original criteria better than the classics did. Strong brand, loyal users, predictable model, growing runway… all at a price that made sense.
Burry’s basically saying…this is the same setup today. The crowd is in love with today’s mega cap winners, especially in AI. Everyone believes they’re untouchable. And if you question the valuations or worse, if you take the other side people act like you don’t get it.
But that’s exactly the dynamic Buffett profited from…buying great businesses when nobody cared, and walking away from expensive ones even when everyone else swore they were safe. Buffett wasn’t Buffett because he held Coke. He was Buffett because he thought independently, ignored the noise, and accepted being early if the numbers backed it up.
And that ties directly into why Burry shut down Scion. When you’re managing other people’s money, being early feels like being wrong because clients will pressure you, even when your analysis is solid. That’s exactly what happened to him in 2006–2008, and he’s not going to repeat that experience while betting against what he sees as another period of mania. Closing the fund frees him from short term expectations and gives him room to take positions the market isn’t ready to accept yet.
So when he posts “Early is not wrong,” he’s not just defending himself. He’s pointing back to the real Buffett…the one who bought the ignored stocks, who trusted the math, and who had the patience to let the cycle catch up.
It’s a reminder…Don’t mimic Buffett’s holdings. Mimic his discipline, the willingness to think independently, to sit through discomfort, and to separate great businesses from great investments.
tweet
Everyone Copies Buffett’s Holdings. Burry’s Copying His Courage
What Burry’s signaling with this old Buffett article goes way deeper than nostalgia. He’s using it to remind people how markets tend to treat anyone who steps off the conveyor belt, anyone who refuses to buy what’s already popular and refuses to pretend that price doesn’t matter.
Back in 1999, Apple was ignored and even mocked by value investors, while the Buffett crowd was still worshipping Coke, AmEx, and Disney. The article points out something people forget…those supposedly bulletproof brands spent more than a decade delivering flat or negative real returns. Meanwhile, the unloved misfit Apple actually fit Buffett’s original criteria better than the classics did. Strong brand, loyal users, predictable model, growing runway… all at a price that made sense.
Burry’s basically saying…this is the same setup today. The crowd is in love with today’s mega cap winners, especially in AI. Everyone believes they’re untouchable. And if you question the valuations or worse, if you take the other side people act like you don’t get it.
But that’s exactly the dynamic Buffett profited from…buying great businesses when nobody cared, and walking away from expensive ones even when everyone else swore they were safe. Buffett wasn’t Buffett because he held Coke. He was Buffett because he thought independently, ignored the noise, and accepted being early if the numbers backed it up.
And that ties directly into why Burry shut down Scion. When you’re managing other people’s money, being early feels like being wrong because clients will pressure you, even when your analysis is solid. That’s exactly what happened to him in 2006–2008, and he’s not going to repeat that experience while betting against what he sees as another period of mania. Closing the fund frees him from short term expectations and gives him room to take positions the market isn’t ready to accept yet.
So when he posts “Early is not wrong,” he’s not just defending himself. He’s pointing back to the real Buffett…the one who bought the ignored stocks, who trusted the math, and who had the patience to let the cycle catch up.
It’s a reminder…Don’t mimic Buffett’s holdings. Mimic his discipline, the willingness to think independently, to sit through discomfort, and to separate great businesses from great investments.
Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS tweet
Wasteland Capital
$GOOG is up +55.1% YTD and at 27.0x ‘25 P/E (consensus estimate).
$AMZN is only +0.5% YTD yet is STILL trading at a premium, at 31.5x ‘26 P/E (cons), despite slower growth.
If there’s ever been a year where people had to learn a hard growth/valuation lesson, it’s this year.
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$GOOG is up +55.1% YTD and at 27.0x ‘25 P/E (consensus estimate).
$AMZN is only +0.5% YTD yet is STILL trading at a premium, at 31.5x ‘26 P/E (cons), despite slower growth.
If there’s ever been a year where people had to learn a hard growth/valuation lesson, it’s this year.
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Quiver Quantitative
A brand new account on Polymarket just bet almost $20K that JD Vance will win the 2028 presidential election.
They will win $67K if they are correct. https://t.co/DNlhWEt81c
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A brand new account on Polymarket just bet almost $20K that JD Vance will win the 2028 presidential election.
They will win $67K if they are correct. https://t.co/DNlhWEt81c
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EndGame Macro
DXY Back Over 100 Says More About the World Than the U.S.
Looking at the chart, the dollar popping back above 100 is the market quietly shifting back into I want stability mode. That red line has been a ceiling for months, and the dollar didn’t just touch it… it broke through, slipped under it, and then pushed right back above. That kind of price action is the market saying, “Yeah, I’m comfortable up here.”
It’s subtle, but meaningful. A breakout like that usually happens when global uncertainty outweighs whatever softening is happening domestically.
Why the Dollar Is Catching a Bid Again
When you line the chart up with everything happening globally, the move actually makes sense.
Japan is a great example. The yen has been sliding hard, even as Japanese bond yields hit multi year highs and the government rolls out a massive ¥17 trillion stimulus package. In a healthier environment, you’d expect that combination to strengthen a currency, not weaken it. But markets are reading it as stress, not renewal. A falling yen against rising yields tells you investors are questioning Japan’s fiscal path, not rewarding it.
And that pattern isn’t just Japan.
Europe’s growth outlook is softening. China’s investment and retail demand are sputtering. Emerging markets are dealing with rising debt loads and downgraded forecasts. Globally, the tone is a slowdown with complications, not a broad recovery.
Put that into market language and you get something simple…money is drifting back toward the safest balance sheet it knows…the dollar.
The Bigger Message Behind the Chart
None of this says the U.S. is booming or that the dollar is unbeatable. What it says is that, in a moment when:
•major economies are losing momentum,
•currencies like the yen are flashing vulnerability,
•governments are leaning on stimulus because they’re out of easy options,
…the dollar becomes the least uncertain place to park capital.
That’s why the move back above 100 matters. It isn’t loud. It isn’t dramatic. It’s a quiet signal that global investors are still more comfortable funneling money into USD than taking chances elsewhere.
In markets, that kind of quiet signal often tells you more than a screaming headline.
tweet
DXY Back Over 100 Says More About the World Than the U.S.
Looking at the chart, the dollar popping back above 100 is the market quietly shifting back into I want stability mode. That red line has been a ceiling for months, and the dollar didn’t just touch it… it broke through, slipped under it, and then pushed right back above. That kind of price action is the market saying, “Yeah, I’m comfortable up here.”
It’s subtle, but meaningful. A breakout like that usually happens when global uncertainty outweighs whatever softening is happening domestically.
Why the Dollar Is Catching a Bid Again
When you line the chart up with everything happening globally, the move actually makes sense.
Japan is a great example. The yen has been sliding hard, even as Japanese bond yields hit multi year highs and the government rolls out a massive ¥17 trillion stimulus package. In a healthier environment, you’d expect that combination to strengthen a currency, not weaken it. But markets are reading it as stress, not renewal. A falling yen against rising yields tells you investors are questioning Japan’s fiscal path, not rewarding it.
And that pattern isn’t just Japan.
Europe’s growth outlook is softening. China’s investment and retail demand are sputtering. Emerging markets are dealing with rising debt loads and downgraded forecasts. Globally, the tone is a slowdown with complications, not a broad recovery.
Put that into market language and you get something simple…money is drifting back toward the safest balance sheet it knows…the dollar.
The Bigger Message Behind the Chart
None of this says the U.S. is booming or that the dollar is unbeatable. What it says is that, in a moment when:
•major economies are losing momentum,
•currencies like the yen are flashing vulnerability,
•governments are leaning on stimulus because they’re out of easy options,
…the dollar becomes the least uncertain place to park capital.
That’s why the move back above 100 matters. It isn’t loud. It isn’t dramatic. It’s a quiet signal that global investors are still more comfortable funneling money into USD than taking chances elsewhere.
In markets, that kind of quiet signal often tells you more than a screaming headline.
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY jumps back above 100 📈💵 https://t.co/BJmRXEo2S9 tweet
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EndGame Macro
If the Labor Market Were Strong, We’d Have Seen the Report Already
The official explanation is straightforward: the shutdown froze the BLS, they couldn’t run the October household survey, and because that survey can’t be recreated after the fact, there’s no full report to release. On the surface, it sounds procedural…unfortunate, but innocent.
But when you look at what data is available, and what’s happening in the labor market underneath, the timing feels a lot less accidental.
The Data Didn’t Vanish They Just Chose Not to Publish
The payroll survey, the one businesses submit electronically was collected.
That means the government does have job gains and losses, hours worked, wage growth, sector level hiring trends, and revisions.
Those numbers could easily be released with a disclaimer saying, “household data will be added later.”
Instead, they decided to wait and blend October into the November report that arrives after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. That’s a choice, not a technical impossibility.
Why That Choice Matters Right Now
The Challenger report shows October layoffs surged to the highest level for that month in 22 years. Warehousing, tech, and logistics are cutting aggressively. Planned hiring is the weakest since 2011. That’s an an early sign the labor market is cooling faster than the headlines suggest.
If the official October report showed:
•a jump in unemployment,
•downward revisions to previous months,
•or a clear slowdown in hiring,
it would hit right as policymakers and markets are already nervous about growth, tariffs, and a shaky global backdrop.
Not releasing that picture avoids an uncomfortable moment…one big, clean headline that would have forced everyone to rethink the soft landing story.
And by December, any weakness gets folded into a blended dataset where the inflection is harder to pinpoint.
You don’t need a conspiracy theory to see the incentive structure here. Just basic political instinct.
A Fair Skeptical Read
The most plausible interpretation is that the BLS had enough information to publish something, but that something likely pointed to a softer labor market at a very inconvenient time.
So instead of one sharp data point, we’ll get a blurrier version in mid December.
And in markets, blurry data is often the surest sign that the underlying picture isn’t as pretty as people hoped.
tweet
If the Labor Market Were Strong, We’d Have Seen the Report Already
The official explanation is straightforward: the shutdown froze the BLS, they couldn’t run the October household survey, and because that survey can’t be recreated after the fact, there’s no full report to release. On the surface, it sounds procedural…unfortunate, but innocent.
But when you look at what data is available, and what’s happening in the labor market underneath, the timing feels a lot less accidental.
The Data Didn’t Vanish They Just Chose Not to Publish
The payroll survey, the one businesses submit electronically was collected.
That means the government does have job gains and losses, hours worked, wage growth, sector level hiring trends, and revisions.
Those numbers could easily be released with a disclaimer saying, “household data will be added later.”
Instead, they decided to wait and blend October into the November report that arrives after the Fed’s final meeting of the year. That’s a choice, not a technical impossibility.
Why That Choice Matters Right Now
The Challenger report shows October layoffs surged to the highest level for that month in 22 years. Warehousing, tech, and logistics are cutting aggressively. Planned hiring is the weakest since 2011. That’s an an early sign the labor market is cooling faster than the headlines suggest.
If the official October report showed:
•a jump in unemployment,
•downward revisions to previous months,
•or a clear slowdown in hiring,
it would hit right as policymakers and markets are already nervous about growth, tariffs, and a shaky global backdrop.
Not releasing that picture avoids an uncomfortable moment…one big, clean headline that would have forced everyone to rethink the soft landing story.
And by December, any weakness gets folded into a blended dataset where the inflection is harder to pinpoint.
You don’t need a conspiracy theory to see the incentive structure here. Just basic political instinct.
A Fair Skeptical Read
The most plausible interpretation is that the BLS had enough information to publish something, but that something likely pointed to a softer labor market at a very inconvenient time.
So instead of one sharp data point, we’ll get a blurrier version in mid December.
And in markets, blurry data is often the surest sign that the underlying picture isn’t as pretty as people hoped.
tweet