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EndGame Macro
When Too Many Barrels Meet Too Little Demand
This kind of straight down move in oil is the market waking up to a mismatch that’s been building quietly in the background…producers kept pumping as if demand would stay strong, but the world just isn’t consuming barrels at the pace everyone expected.
Supply has been rising…U.S. shale, OPEC+, and a handful of secondary producers all leaning into high output. At the same time, demand has been softening for the better part of the year. Slower manufacturing, weaker global trade, tighter financial conditions, consumers being more cautious, none of it dramatic on its own, but together it adds up. Inventories creep higher, and then all it takes is one OPEC line about output topping demand for the whole curve to get repriced lower in a hurry.
The speed of the drop is the tell. Markets can digest steady declines. They don’t typically digest a cliff unless the underlying story has shifted.
Why It Matters Beyond the Oil Chart
Lower oil prices help in the obvious ways with cheaper fuel, cooler inflation, a bit of relief for consumers. But the reasoning behind this drop sends a different signal. If WTI is hanging around the high 50s to low 60s, a lot of new U.S. wells don’t make financial sense. Breakevens sit above that. So drilling plans get delayed, capex shrinks, and oilfield service companies feel the slowdown first.
That’s exactly how the 2014–2016 cycle unfolded. Households benefited from cheaper gas, but the energy sector tightened, parts of the credit market strained, and growth lost some of its momentum.
This chart hints at something similar, nothing catastrophic, just a world easing into a slower gear. When oil falls because supply is overwhelming demand, it often reflects a broader cooling in global activity. The market is starting to price that in even if the headlines haven’t fully caught up yet.
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When Too Many Barrels Meet Too Little Demand
This kind of straight down move in oil is the market waking up to a mismatch that’s been building quietly in the background…producers kept pumping as if demand would stay strong, but the world just isn’t consuming barrels at the pace everyone expected.
Supply has been rising…U.S. shale, OPEC+, and a handful of secondary producers all leaning into high output. At the same time, demand has been softening for the better part of the year. Slower manufacturing, weaker global trade, tighter financial conditions, consumers being more cautious, none of it dramatic on its own, but together it adds up. Inventories creep higher, and then all it takes is one OPEC line about output topping demand for the whole curve to get repriced lower in a hurry.
The speed of the drop is the tell. Markets can digest steady declines. They don’t typically digest a cliff unless the underlying story has shifted.
Why It Matters Beyond the Oil Chart
Lower oil prices help in the obvious ways with cheaper fuel, cooler inflation, a bit of relief for consumers. But the reasoning behind this drop sends a different signal. If WTI is hanging around the high 50s to low 60s, a lot of new U.S. wells don’t make financial sense. Breakevens sit above that. So drilling plans get delayed, capex shrinks, and oilfield service companies feel the slowdown first.
That’s exactly how the 2014–2016 cycle unfolded. Households benefited from cheaper gas, but the energy sector tightened, parts of the credit market strained, and growth lost some of its momentum.
This chart hints at something similar, nothing catastrophic, just a world easing into a slower gear. When oil falls because supply is overwhelming demand, it often reflects a broader cooling in global activity. The market is starting to price that in even if the headlines haven’t fully caught up yet.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Home Depot Just Became the Pulse Check No One Can Ignore
When you look at this Home Depot chart, its clear that this is a steady loss of confidence that finally got confirmed by the company itself. The stock didn’t collapse in one blow. It leaked lower for weeks, like the market sensed something softening underneath, and then the earnings release flipped that quiet suspicion into an outright repricing.
And it makes sense once you read what Decker said. He didn’t hide the ball. He admitted that the boost they were expecting simply didn’t show up, that customers are more hesitant, and that consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand. That line lands hard because Home Depot sits directly on the fault line between how people feel and how much they’re willing to spend.
Why This Is Happening
The core issue is the combination of a frozen housing market and a more cautious consumer. When housing transactions stall, renovation spending drops with it. When people aren’t moving, they don’t remodel kitchens, repaint rooms, or replace flooring. And when they’re unsure about their jobs or their budgets, even small improvement projects can wait.
You can see that dynamic right in the numbers. Home Depot did grow sales 2.8%, but nearly all of that came from the GMS acquisition. Without it, comps were flat +0.1% in the U.S. For a retailer with HD’s historical momentum, that’s basically a standstill. They even cut full year EPS guidance, expecting a 5–6% decline from last year. That’s the first real sign the company sees this softness as something that won’t disappear overnight.
What It Foreshadows for the Real Economy
This is where it gets more important than just one stock chart. Home Depot is a high beta readout on middle class behavior. It tells you things long before they show up in retail sales reports or GDP revisions. When HD slows, it usually means…
•big ticket spending is being delayed
•homeowners are choosing patch it over replace it
•small contractors are feeling lighter backlogs
•and the housing slowdown is finally bleeding into the broader consumer economy
Pair that with what you’re seeing elsewhere with falling oil prices from oversupply, global bond yields hinting at slower demand, volatility creeping up and the pattern becomes hard to ignore. Parts of the economy that normally hold up late in the cycle are starting to soften.
This doesn’t scream crisis. But it does say the runway is getting tighter, and the spending behavior that carried the last couple years is losing momentum.
Home Depot just confirmed that shift out loud. The stock chart merely showed it first.
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Home Depot Just Became the Pulse Check No One Can Ignore
When you look at this Home Depot chart, its clear that this is a steady loss of confidence that finally got confirmed by the company itself. The stock didn’t collapse in one blow. It leaked lower for weeks, like the market sensed something softening underneath, and then the earnings release flipped that quiet suspicion into an outright repricing.
And it makes sense once you read what Decker said. He didn’t hide the ball. He admitted that the boost they were expecting simply didn’t show up, that customers are more hesitant, and that consumer uncertainty and continued pressure in housing are disproportionately impacting home improvement demand. That line lands hard because Home Depot sits directly on the fault line between how people feel and how much they’re willing to spend.
Why This Is Happening
The core issue is the combination of a frozen housing market and a more cautious consumer. When housing transactions stall, renovation spending drops with it. When people aren’t moving, they don’t remodel kitchens, repaint rooms, or replace flooring. And when they’re unsure about their jobs or their budgets, even small improvement projects can wait.
You can see that dynamic right in the numbers. Home Depot did grow sales 2.8%, but nearly all of that came from the GMS acquisition. Without it, comps were flat +0.1% in the U.S. For a retailer with HD’s historical momentum, that’s basically a standstill. They even cut full year EPS guidance, expecting a 5–6% decline from last year. That’s the first real sign the company sees this softness as something that won’t disappear overnight.
What It Foreshadows for the Real Economy
This is where it gets more important than just one stock chart. Home Depot is a high beta readout on middle class behavior. It tells you things long before they show up in retail sales reports or GDP revisions. When HD slows, it usually means…
•big ticket spending is being delayed
•homeowners are choosing patch it over replace it
•small contractors are feeling lighter backlogs
•and the housing slowdown is finally bleeding into the broader consumer economy
Pair that with what you’re seeing elsewhere with falling oil prices from oversupply, global bond yields hinting at slower demand, volatility creeping up and the pattern becomes hard to ignore. Parts of the economy that normally hold up late in the cycle are starting to soften.
This doesn’t scream crisis. But it does say the runway is getting tighter, and the spending behavior that carried the last couple years is losing momentum.
Home Depot just confirmed that shift out loud. The stock chart merely showed it first.
Home Depot $HD has now plunged more than 20% over the last 2 months 📉📉 https://t.co/8Mr4B3ouhu tweet
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Clark Square Capital
LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here.
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LuxExperience (US: $LUXE, formerly MYTE) reported 1Q26 results this morning.
Overall, I would characterize these as very solid, despite some short-term messiness as they begin to integrate Net-a-Porter/Mr. Porterand Yoox.
The standout was core Mytheresa, which posted accelerating GMV/revenue (+14%, and +12%, respectively) and doubled EBITDA margins to 3%. As far as NAP/MRP goes, the company is making progress in reducing costs (SG&A) and stabilizing top-line. Importantly, the company will complete the sale of The Outnet (part of the off-price division) for USD $30 million. This is a big win, as they will be able to reduce cash burn and get paid for a division that most analysts did not attribute much value to.
LUXE raised the full-year guidance for EBITDA to -2% to +1%(from -4/+1 previously) and lowered the GMV guide, but solely due to the disposal of The Outnet. Management also expects NAP/MRP to return to growth in 2H26, but I think this may be sooner, as recent web traffic trends continue to accelerate (see attached).
Valuation remains quite compelling. I see the company hitting ~8% EBITDA margins in ~2 years, which would translate to about EUR 200million in EBITDA for MYTE/NAP/MRP (excluding Yoox). This is on a current EV of roughly EUR 900 million (assuming they can keep EUR 300m of the cash). At a 10x EBITDA multiple, this would be a $18 stock, or about a double from here.
A thread on Mytheresa $MYTE, one of my favorite opportunities in the market today.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Crowd Loves NVDA But The Smart Money Is Stepping Back
The NVDA chart is basically telling you the stock has been running hotter than the story itself. Price keeps pushing to new highs, but momentum underneath is fading, that RSI divergence is the kind of thing you usually see when buyers aren’t as aggressive as they once were. The monthly candle forming right now also has that exhaustion look to it. Not a meltdown, just a sense that the move is getting heavy.
And that distance from trend line chart drives it home. When a stock pulls 400–500% above its long term growth path, it means expectations have drifted into a place where even great news feels ordinary. That’s where NVDA is sitting right now.
It doesn’t mean it has to fall apart. It just means the bar has been raised to a level where even amazing might not be enough.
Why the Big Sellers Matter
Seeing names like SoftBank, Thiel, Burry, Millennium, Citadel, D.E. Shaw, and Point72 trim or step aside isn’t a coincidence. These are players who think in probabilities and risk vs reward. When they lighten up before earnings, it usually means they don’t love the setup, not the company.
NVDA has become the ultimate consensus trade. Everyone owns it. Everyone believes in AI. And when a stock becomes that crowded, the risk shifts from what if the business slows? to what if the narrative just hits a speed bump? That’s the part big funds don’t like sticking around for.
What to Expect Today
Expectations are sky high. Something around $54–55B in revenue and $1.25+ EPS is already baked in. A normal beat won’t move the needle…NVDA probably needs a beat, a raise, and a clear runway for future AI spending to really push higher from here.
My Honest Read
•A beat but not enough outcome is the most likely.
•A cautious guide could be the thing that triggers a deeper pullback.
•A true upside surprise, one that blows out guidance and resets the whole AI narrative again is possible, but the probability feels lower than the market wants to admit.
The long term AI story is still intact. But in the short term, this feels like a stock that’s priced for perfection walking into a moment where perfection might not be on the menu.
That’s the tension you’re seeing in these charts, the business looks strong, but the setup looks fragile.
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The Crowd Loves NVDA But The Smart Money Is Stepping Back
The NVDA chart is basically telling you the stock has been running hotter than the story itself. Price keeps pushing to new highs, but momentum underneath is fading, that RSI divergence is the kind of thing you usually see when buyers aren’t as aggressive as they once were. The monthly candle forming right now also has that exhaustion look to it. Not a meltdown, just a sense that the move is getting heavy.
And that distance from trend line chart drives it home. When a stock pulls 400–500% above its long term growth path, it means expectations have drifted into a place where even great news feels ordinary. That’s where NVDA is sitting right now.
It doesn’t mean it has to fall apart. It just means the bar has been raised to a level where even amazing might not be enough.
Why the Big Sellers Matter
Seeing names like SoftBank, Thiel, Burry, Millennium, Citadel, D.E. Shaw, and Point72 trim or step aside isn’t a coincidence. These are players who think in probabilities and risk vs reward. When they lighten up before earnings, it usually means they don’t love the setup, not the company.
NVDA has become the ultimate consensus trade. Everyone owns it. Everyone believes in AI. And when a stock becomes that crowded, the risk shifts from what if the business slows? to what if the narrative just hits a speed bump? That’s the part big funds don’t like sticking around for.
What to Expect Today
Expectations are sky high. Something around $54–55B in revenue and $1.25+ EPS is already baked in. A normal beat won’t move the needle…NVDA probably needs a beat, a raise, and a clear runway for future AI spending to really push higher from here.
My Honest Read
•A beat but not enough outcome is the most likely.
•A cautious guide could be the thing that triggers a deeper pullback.
•A true upside surprise, one that blows out guidance and resets the whole AI narrative again is possible, but the probability feels lower than the market wants to admit.
The long term AI story is still intact. But in the short term, this feels like a stock that’s priced for perfection walking into a moment where perfection might not be on the menu.
That’s the tension you’re seeing in these charts, the business looks strong, but the setup looks fragile.
This is NVDA ahead of earnings:
– Potential bearish engulfing on the monthly chart
– Bearish divergence
– % distance from its exponential growth trend echoes the dot-com bubble.
If earnings miss expectations, it’s highly likely we’ll enter a deeper corrective phase. https://t.co/tJhzZRSATD tweet
AkhenOsiris
@ConsensusGurus the Goog is up because of Berkshire, some guy told me in the elevator 😂
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@ConsensusGurus the Goog is up because of Berkshire, some guy told me in the elevator 😂
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The market now predicts that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting.
Polymarket now gives just 32% odds of a decrease. https://t.co/o275xBIUQ0
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BREAKING: The market now predicts that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting.
Polymarket now gives just 32% odds of a decrease. https://t.co/o275xBIUQ0
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Everyone Copies Buffett’s Holdings. Burry’s Copying His Courage
What Burry’s signaling with this old Buffett article goes way deeper than nostalgia. He’s using it to remind people how markets tend to treat anyone who steps off the conveyor belt, anyone who refuses to buy what’s already popular and refuses to pretend that price doesn’t matter.
Back in 1999, Apple was ignored and even mocked by value investors, while the Buffett crowd was still worshipping Coke, AmEx, and Disney. The article points out something people forget…those supposedly bulletproof brands spent more than a decade delivering flat or negative real returns. Meanwhile, the unloved misfit Apple actually fit Buffett’s original criteria better than the classics did. Strong brand, loyal users, predictable model, growing runway… all at a price that made sense.
Burry’s basically saying…this is the same setup today. The crowd is in love with today’s mega cap winners, especially in AI. Everyone believes they’re untouchable. And if you question the valuations or worse, if you take the other side people act like you don’t get it.
But that’s exactly the dynamic Buffett profited from…buying great businesses when nobody cared, and walking away from expensive ones even when everyone else swore they were safe. Buffett wasn’t Buffett because he held Coke. He was Buffett because he thought independently, ignored the noise, and accepted being early if the numbers backed it up.
And that ties directly into why Burry shut down Scion. When you’re managing other people’s money, being early feels like being wrong because clients will pressure you, even when your analysis is solid. That’s exactly what happened to him in 2006–2008, and he’s not going to repeat that experience while betting against what he sees as another period of mania. Closing the fund frees him from short term expectations and gives him room to take positions the market isn’t ready to accept yet.
So when he posts “Early is not wrong,” he’s not just defending himself. He’s pointing back to the real Buffett…the one who bought the ignored stocks, who trusted the math, and who had the patience to let the cycle catch up.
It’s a reminder…Don’t mimic Buffett’s holdings. Mimic his discipline, the willingness to think independently, to sit through discomfort, and to separate great businesses from great investments.
tweet
Everyone Copies Buffett’s Holdings. Burry’s Copying His Courage
What Burry’s signaling with this old Buffett article goes way deeper than nostalgia. He’s using it to remind people how markets tend to treat anyone who steps off the conveyor belt, anyone who refuses to buy what’s already popular and refuses to pretend that price doesn’t matter.
Back in 1999, Apple was ignored and even mocked by value investors, while the Buffett crowd was still worshipping Coke, AmEx, and Disney. The article points out something people forget…those supposedly bulletproof brands spent more than a decade delivering flat or negative real returns. Meanwhile, the unloved misfit Apple actually fit Buffett’s original criteria better than the classics did. Strong brand, loyal users, predictable model, growing runway… all at a price that made sense.
Burry’s basically saying…this is the same setup today. The crowd is in love with today’s mega cap winners, especially in AI. Everyone believes they’re untouchable. And if you question the valuations or worse, if you take the other side people act like you don’t get it.
But that’s exactly the dynamic Buffett profited from…buying great businesses when nobody cared, and walking away from expensive ones even when everyone else swore they were safe. Buffett wasn’t Buffett because he held Coke. He was Buffett because he thought independently, ignored the noise, and accepted being early if the numbers backed it up.
And that ties directly into why Burry shut down Scion. When you’re managing other people’s money, being early feels like being wrong because clients will pressure you, even when your analysis is solid. That’s exactly what happened to him in 2006–2008, and he’s not going to repeat that experience while betting against what he sees as another period of mania. Closing the fund frees him from short term expectations and gives him room to take positions the market isn’t ready to accept yet.
So when he posts “Early is not wrong,” he’s not just defending himself. He’s pointing back to the real Buffett…the one who bought the ignored stocks, who trusted the math, and who had the patience to let the cycle catch up.
It’s a reminder…Don’t mimic Buffett’s holdings. Mimic his discipline, the willingness to think independently, to sit through discomfort, and to separate great businesses from great investments.
Early is not wrong. https://t.co/9jsyJYOGZS tweet
Wasteland Capital
$GOOG is up +55.1% YTD and at 27.0x ‘25 P/E (consensus estimate).
$AMZN is only +0.5% YTD yet is STILL trading at a premium, at 31.5x ‘26 P/E (cons), despite slower growth.
If there’s ever been a year where people had to learn a hard growth/valuation lesson, it’s this year.
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$GOOG is up +55.1% YTD and at 27.0x ‘25 P/E (consensus estimate).
$AMZN is only +0.5% YTD yet is STILL trading at a premium, at 31.5x ‘26 P/E (cons), despite slower growth.
If there’s ever been a year where people had to learn a hard growth/valuation lesson, it’s this year.
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