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EndGame Macro
Basel Softens, Stress Rises: The Fed Isn’t Saying It Out Loud, But It’s Acting Like It Sees Trouble Ahead
On the surface, this all looks like routine regulatory housekeeping, the Fed meeting bank CFOs about Basel rules, and the New York Fed holding a call about the Standing Repo Facility. But taken together, it reads like the Fed quietly admitting the system is running tighter than they want to publicly acknowledge.
They’re not ringing the alarm bell. They’re doing something more subtle: backing away from anything that could make conditions worse, and rehearsing the playbook in case something snaps.
Why the Fed Is Softening Basel Right Now
The original Basel Endgame proposal would’ve forced big banks to hold a lot more capital. That sounds great in a classroom…safer banks, bigger buffers but in the real world, when balance sheets are already stretched, it means less lending and less capacity to absorb the flood of Treasury issuance.
And the Fed knows what the backdrop looks like:
•QT has pulled reserves out of the system.
•The RRP is basically empty.
•Treasury issuance is huge and persistent.
•SOFR and repo have already shown flickers of stress.
•Banks are treating balance sheet space like a scarce resource.
Put big capital hikes on top of that and you’re basically telling banks to take a step back just when the entire system needs them to lean in. No regulator wants to be the one whose rule helped cause a credit squeeze.
So they’re scaling it back and presenting a friendlier version next month, a version where capital stays relatively flat, not meaningfully higher. That’s the giveaway. When times are good, regulators tighten. When things feel shaky, they ease off.
This is the easing off phase.
Why the SRF Meeting Is the Other Half of the Story
You don’t call an impromptu meeting on the SRF, the system’s emergency funding hose unless you’re worried people may need it.
Or worse: that they won’t use it when they need it.
Banks still see stigma in borrowing directly from the Fed. It looks like weakness to boards, shareholders, regulators. So the Fed is checking in early, trying to normalize the idea of tapping the SRF if funding gets tight.
That’s the part most people miss:
This wasn’t about solving a crisis. It was about preventing one in a system where the buffers have gotten thin and liquidity doesn’t slosh the way it did a couple years ago.
What This Foreshadows
The Fed is acting like a group that sees what’s coming over the hill. They see:
•a cooling labor market,
•rising credit rejection rates,
•delinquencies starting to climb,
•spreads widening quietly,
•and less balance sheet capacity across the banking system.
In a world like that, even small shocks can hit harder.
So instead of waiting for a 2019 style funding spike or an accidental credit tightening, they’re doing two things in advance:
1.Remove any extra strain they might impose on banks.
(Hence the softer Basel rules.)
2.Make sure the emergency firehose actually works.
(Hence the SRF meeting.)
This is what central banks do when they’re not panicking, but they’re no longer comfortable either. It’s the institutional version of tightening the seatbelt when the road ahead starts to look uneven.
My Read
This isn’t deregulation for convenience or a random check in. This is the Fed acknowledging…quietly, indirectly that the economy is losing altitude and the financial plumbing is running with less slack than it used to.
They’re not trying to juice the system. They’re trying to keep it stable long enough to navigate a deteriorating backdrop.
The message buried under the headlines is simple…they see the stress building early, and they’re backing away from anything that could make it crack.
The Federal Reserve will meet the chief financial officers of big US banks next month to detail its updated plans for implementing international capital standards, said JPMorgan Chase Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto https://t.co/67tML[...]
Basel Softens, Stress Rises: The Fed Isn’t Saying It Out Loud, But It’s Acting Like It Sees Trouble Ahead
On the surface, this all looks like routine regulatory housekeeping, the Fed meeting bank CFOs about Basel rules, and the New York Fed holding a call about the Standing Repo Facility. But taken together, it reads like the Fed quietly admitting the system is running tighter than they want to publicly acknowledge.
They’re not ringing the alarm bell. They’re doing something more subtle: backing away from anything that could make conditions worse, and rehearsing the playbook in case something snaps.
Why the Fed Is Softening Basel Right Now
The original Basel Endgame proposal would’ve forced big banks to hold a lot more capital. That sounds great in a classroom…safer banks, bigger buffers but in the real world, when balance sheets are already stretched, it means less lending and less capacity to absorb the flood of Treasury issuance.
And the Fed knows what the backdrop looks like:
•QT has pulled reserves out of the system.
•The RRP is basically empty.
•Treasury issuance is huge and persistent.
•SOFR and repo have already shown flickers of stress.
•Banks are treating balance sheet space like a scarce resource.
Put big capital hikes on top of that and you’re basically telling banks to take a step back just when the entire system needs them to lean in. No regulator wants to be the one whose rule helped cause a credit squeeze.
So they’re scaling it back and presenting a friendlier version next month, a version where capital stays relatively flat, not meaningfully higher. That’s the giveaway. When times are good, regulators tighten. When things feel shaky, they ease off.
This is the easing off phase.
Why the SRF Meeting Is the Other Half of the Story
You don’t call an impromptu meeting on the SRF, the system’s emergency funding hose unless you’re worried people may need it.
Or worse: that they won’t use it when they need it.
Banks still see stigma in borrowing directly from the Fed. It looks like weakness to boards, shareholders, regulators. So the Fed is checking in early, trying to normalize the idea of tapping the SRF if funding gets tight.
That’s the part most people miss:
This wasn’t about solving a crisis. It was about preventing one in a system where the buffers have gotten thin and liquidity doesn’t slosh the way it did a couple years ago.
What This Foreshadows
The Fed is acting like a group that sees what’s coming over the hill. They see:
•a cooling labor market,
•rising credit rejection rates,
•delinquencies starting to climb,
•spreads widening quietly,
•and less balance sheet capacity across the banking system.
In a world like that, even small shocks can hit harder.
So instead of waiting for a 2019 style funding spike or an accidental credit tightening, they’re doing two things in advance:
1.Remove any extra strain they might impose on banks.
(Hence the softer Basel rules.)
2.Make sure the emergency firehose actually works.
(Hence the SRF meeting.)
This is what central banks do when they’re not panicking, but they’re no longer comfortable either. It’s the institutional version of tightening the seatbelt when the road ahead starts to look uneven.
My Read
This isn’t deregulation for convenience or a random check in. This is the Fed acknowledging…quietly, indirectly that the economy is losing altitude and the financial plumbing is running with less slack than it used to.
They’re not trying to juice the system. They’re trying to keep it stable long enough to navigate a deteriorating backdrop.
The message buried under the headlines is simple…they see the stress building early, and they’re backing away from anything that could make it crack.
The Federal Reserve will meet the chief financial officers of big US banks next month to detail its updated plans for implementing international capital standards, said JPMorgan Chase Vice Chairman Daniel Pinto https://t.co/67tML[...]
EndGame Macro
Cities Want Yesterday’s Values. Homeowners Are Paying Today’s Bill
What’s happening in Chicago isn’t an isolated story or some freak policy choice. It’s the natural consequence of a simple math problem every major city in America is now dealing with: the property values that surged during the Covid era, especially downtown office buildings aren’t coming back, but the cities still want the revenue those inflated valuations once produced.
Covid Gave Cities a Mirage
During the pandemic, when money was cheap and asset prices were flying, commercial real estate valuations were pushed to levels that never made real economic sense. Cities loved it. A higher assessed value meant higher property tax revenue without raising the tax rate. It was painless and politically convenient.
But once offices emptied out, leases expired, and remote work became permanent for millions, the underlying value of those buildings started to collapse. The market is adjusting fast but cities are not. They’re still trying to collect taxes on yesterday’s fantasy prices.
Now Homeowners Are Becoming the Backstop
When CRE values fall, the total tax levy the city needs doesn’t magically shrink along with them. So the burden shifts toward the people who can’t contest their valuations as easily and can’t walk away from their property: homeowners.
That’s why you’re seeing record hikes in places like Chicago. And it’s why commercial landlords everywhere are taking their local governments to court. They know their buildings aren’t worth what the assessors claim. The valuations are stuck in early 2022, while the market is living in 2025.
This Is Going National
It’s not just Chicago. Any city that relied heavily on downtown property values like New York, San Francisco, Boston, D.C., Seattle, even second tier metros is going to face this same squeeze. They need the tax revenue to fund schools, pensions, public safety, and basic services. But the assets that used to generate that revenue have been structurally repriced lower.
When cities refuse to update those valuations, the pressure ultimately spills onto homeowners and small businesses. When they do update those valuations, they blow a hole in their budgets.
Either way, someone has to absorb the loss. Covid inflated the numbers. The market corrected them. Now the bill is being passed around and homeowners are next in line.
tweet
Cities Want Yesterday’s Values. Homeowners Are Paying Today’s Bill
What’s happening in Chicago isn’t an isolated story or some freak policy choice. It’s the natural consequence of a simple math problem every major city in America is now dealing with: the property values that surged during the Covid era, especially downtown office buildings aren’t coming back, but the cities still want the revenue those inflated valuations once produced.
Covid Gave Cities a Mirage
During the pandemic, when money was cheap and asset prices were flying, commercial real estate valuations were pushed to levels that never made real economic sense. Cities loved it. A higher assessed value meant higher property tax revenue without raising the tax rate. It was painless and politically convenient.
But once offices emptied out, leases expired, and remote work became permanent for millions, the underlying value of those buildings started to collapse. The market is adjusting fast but cities are not. They’re still trying to collect taxes on yesterday’s fantasy prices.
Now Homeowners Are Becoming the Backstop
When CRE values fall, the total tax levy the city needs doesn’t magically shrink along with them. So the burden shifts toward the people who can’t contest their valuations as easily and can’t walk away from their property: homeowners.
That’s why you’re seeing record hikes in places like Chicago. And it’s why commercial landlords everywhere are taking their local governments to court. They know their buildings aren’t worth what the assessors claim. The valuations are stuck in early 2022, while the market is living in 2025.
This Is Going National
It’s not just Chicago. Any city that relied heavily on downtown property values like New York, San Francisco, Boston, D.C., Seattle, even second tier metros is going to face this same squeeze. They need the tax revenue to fund schools, pensions, public safety, and basic services. But the assets that used to generate that revenue have been structurally repriced lower.
When cities refuse to update those valuations, the pressure ultimately spills onto homeowners and small businesses. When they do update those valuations, they blow a hole in their budgets.
Either way, someone has to absorb the loss. Covid inflated the numbers. The market corrected them. Now the bill is being passed around and homeowners are next in line.
Chicago homeowners are getting hit with a record property tax hike after the city's downtown office buildings and CRE values fell sharply again.
#MacroEdge tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) on X
Chicago homeowners are getting hit with a record property tax hike after the city's downtown office buildings and CRE values fell sharply again.
#MacroEdge
#MacroEdge
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WealthyReadings
$TMDX is close to 25% of my portfolio and I'm not feeling anxious at all. Still buying.
Gotta act on our convictions, what the point of building them otherwise?
When the lights are green, you move.
tweet
$TMDX is close to 25% of my portfolio and I'm not feeling anxious at all. Still buying.
Gotta act on our convictions, what the point of building them otherwise?
When the lights are green, you move.
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇 tweet
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WealthyReadings
$PYPL is now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
How’s that possible while its price isn’t at all-time lows?
Because the fundamentals improved since. And will continue to improve.
Do what you want with that info, I’m just the messenger. https://t.co/dHXX78nue6
tweet
$PYPL is now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
How’s that possible while its price isn’t at all-time lows?
Because the fundamentals improved since. And will continue to improve.
Do what you want with that info, I’m just the messenger. https://t.co/dHXX78nue6
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
$PYPL is now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
How’s that possible while its price isn’t at all-time lows?
Because fundamentals improved since. And will continue to.
Do what you want with that info, I’m just the messenger. https://t.co/G05v81ilvq
tweet
$PYPL is now trading at its lowest valuation ever.
How’s that possible while its price isn’t at all-time lows?
Because fundamentals improved since. And will continue to.
Do what you want with that info, I’m just the messenger. https://t.co/G05v81ilvq
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Day the Market Realized the Fed Is Getting Nervous
A drop like this always grabs attention, but the real story isn’t the Dow being down 700 points, it’s the environment the market is suddenly waking up to. This was the market finally processing a series of signals from the Fed and from the economy that all point in the same direction: things are getting tighter, and the Fed knows it.
Tech Was the Trigger, Not the Cause
Nvidia, Apple, and Salesforce led the decline, and that part is easy to understand. The AI trade has been priced for perfection all year, and when you’re priced that aggressively, even small doubts hurt. Nvidia slipped ahead of earnings; names tied to AI infrastructure sold off because people are asking whether the massive spending on chips and data centers has a real payoff. That alone can drag the market lower but it wasn’t the whole story.
The Fed’s Moves Tell You More Than Their Words
This week the Fed has quietly shifted into a more defensive stance, even if they’re not saying it explicitly. They’ve already cut twice, and now they’re ending QT on December 1st. That’s not a risk on signal, that’s the Fed deciding the system doesn’t have the room for more tightening.
Then you have the SRF meeting. The New York Fed pulled banks into an unscheduled discussion about why nobody is using the Standing Repo Facility, the very tool that’s supposed to stop funding markets from seizing up. You don’t hold that meeting unless you’re seeing stress build under the surface.
And on top of that, they’re softening the Basel rules after months of insisting they wanted banks to hold more capital. Now the revised proposal is “relatively flat.” That’s not regulatory generosity, that’s the Fed avoiding anything that could strain bank balance sheets right now.
Put together, these moves tell you the Fed sees the buffers thinning. They’re not panicking, but they’re preparing.
Williams Added to the Uncertainty
John Williams’ comments didn’t help. His message was basically: We’ve made progress, the economy is cooling, but we need to go slow. In other words, the Fed isn’t sure how quickly they should cut, and they don’t want to promise anything. Markets dislike that kind of ambiguity when the data is softening.
What the Market Really Reacted To
So when you take stretched tech valuations, a Fed stepping quietly into a defensive posture, uncertainty around rate cuts, and signs the economy is losing momentum, you get a day like today. This is the market adjusting to a new reality.
The story isn’t the size of the drop, it’s what the drop is acknowledging: the runway is getting narrower, the Fed is easing off the brakes not because things are great, but because they see the tightening in the pipes, and investors are starting to price that in.
This is what it looks like when confidence gets replaced by caution.
tweet
The Day the Market Realized the Fed Is Getting Nervous
A drop like this always grabs attention, but the real story isn’t the Dow being down 700 points, it’s the environment the market is suddenly waking up to. This was the market finally processing a series of signals from the Fed and from the economy that all point in the same direction: things are getting tighter, and the Fed knows it.
Tech Was the Trigger, Not the Cause
Nvidia, Apple, and Salesforce led the decline, and that part is easy to understand. The AI trade has been priced for perfection all year, and when you’re priced that aggressively, even small doubts hurt. Nvidia slipped ahead of earnings; names tied to AI infrastructure sold off because people are asking whether the massive spending on chips and data centers has a real payoff. That alone can drag the market lower but it wasn’t the whole story.
The Fed’s Moves Tell You More Than Their Words
This week the Fed has quietly shifted into a more defensive stance, even if they’re not saying it explicitly. They’ve already cut twice, and now they’re ending QT on December 1st. That’s not a risk on signal, that’s the Fed deciding the system doesn’t have the room for more tightening.
Then you have the SRF meeting. The New York Fed pulled banks into an unscheduled discussion about why nobody is using the Standing Repo Facility, the very tool that’s supposed to stop funding markets from seizing up. You don’t hold that meeting unless you’re seeing stress build under the surface.
And on top of that, they’re softening the Basel rules after months of insisting they wanted banks to hold more capital. Now the revised proposal is “relatively flat.” That’s not regulatory generosity, that’s the Fed avoiding anything that could strain bank balance sheets right now.
Put together, these moves tell you the Fed sees the buffers thinning. They’re not panicking, but they’re preparing.
Williams Added to the Uncertainty
John Williams’ comments didn’t help. His message was basically: We’ve made progress, the economy is cooling, but we need to go slow. In other words, the Fed isn’t sure how quickly they should cut, and they don’t want to promise anything. Markets dislike that kind of ambiguity when the data is softening.
What the Market Really Reacted To
So when you take stretched tech valuations, a Fed stepping quietly into a defensive posture, uncertainty around rate cuts, and signs the economy is losing momentum, you get a day like today. This is the market adjusting to a new reality.
The story isn’t the size of the drop, it’s what the drop is acknowledging: the runway is getting narrower, the Fed is easing off the brakes not because things are great, but because they see the tightening in the pipes, and investors are starting to price that in.
This is what it looks like when confidence gets replaced by caution.
BREAKING: The Dow falls nearly -700 points as US equity market declines accelerate. https://t.co/f2EenX8QXE tweet
AkhenOsiris
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.”
tweet
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.”
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Send $META below $600
David Dweck, who was just promoted from general manager to president of digital agency Go Fish, said this market is softer than what he’s seen since the pandemic first shook up marketplace activity.
“We’re expecting to have a softer holiday than the last three to five years,” said Dweck, pointing largely to consumer spending drop-off. “We saw a bit of a higher spike [in client spend] in mid-October, but it’s trailed off to the point that it’s been down 10% the last two weeks.”
tweet
Send $META below $600
David Dweck, who was just promoted from general manager to president of digital agency Go Fish, said this market is softer than what he’s seen since the pandemic first shook up marketplace activity.
“We’re expecting to have a softer holiday than the last three to five years,” said Dweck, pointing largely to consumer spending drop-off. “We saw a bit of a higher spike [in client spend] in mid-October, but it’s trailed off to the point that it’s been down 10% the last two weeks.”
Latest on Ad Space: $GOOGL $META $AMZN
Digiday -
It seems mixed signals are all over the place in the fourth-quarter ad marketplace, with some media buyers reporting a recent drop off in ad spend from a number of categories, while others acknowledge a slowdown but not of any amount that rings alarm bells for 2026. One chief media officer even said he’s seen an uptick in business since the beginning of the quarter.
What’s going on? For one thing, the fact that economic signals are just short of haywire means no advertiser, much less their media agency, can set a clear-cut path forward. Between up-and-down tariffs, the longest U.S. federal government shutdown in history (just concluded but the impact is still being felt) and lingering inflationary worries, things are about as clear as concrete.
That reality has led to reports of some publishers and sellers offering incentives to land more business (and hit 2025 sales goals), including beta-testing opportunities (more on that later). And if historical precedent is to be believed, the instability impacting the market today could easily usher in a Q1 2026 that’s softer than the momentum needed to make the year a winner for brands, for publishers and for agencies.
“It’s not a soft market — I just got two significant budgets handed to me for the rest of Q4,” said one veteran buyer at a multi-agency group. “But it’s definitely softer than how it started.”
The buyer, who spoke with Digiday on condition of anonymity, said part of the softness is that some of the bigger-spending advertisers put down a larger share of dollars into upfront commitments because of favorable rates, leaving fewer dollars to spend in scatter. That’s left some connected TV players scrambling to fill their coffers, because they had been expecting more money to be working in Q4.
Some of the strength or weakness in the marketplace — including linear TV and CTV, digital, retail media and audio — depends on where clients are in the purchase funnel. It seems right now, upper-funnel brand marketing is in vogue as advertisers ensure their brand is remembered over the next six weeks.
“Across all of the ad spend we manage across digital, tradition and retail media networks, we are seeing year-over-year mid and lower funnel spend down 8% and top-of-funnel investments in YouTube, linear, CTV, etc. up 26%,” said Tucker Matheson, co-founder of Markacy. Those numbers seem to indicate “that brands are shifting the next incremental dollar into more brand awareness tactics versus conversion.” tweet
AkhenOsiris
Sleepy Joe Biden market! 😡
tweet
Sleepy Joe Biden market! 😡
TRUMP HAS 'PROVEN ECONOMIC FORMULA' BUT IT'S 'GOING TO TAKE MORE TIME,' - WH OFFICIAL tweet
EndGame Macro
Waller’s Warning Shot: The Real Reason He Wants More Cuts
If you strip away the formal tone, Waller’s message is pretty direct…inflation is basically tamed, the job market is fading faster than the official numbers show, and the Fed shouldn’t sit around waiting for a recession before cutting more. He makes it sound academic, but the underlying point is simple, the risks have flipped. Inflation isn’t the danger anymore; unemployment is.
The Labor Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Waller spends most of the speech walking you through why he thinks the job market is already in trouble, even if the headline data hasn’t fully reflected it. He points out that job creation stalled from May through August and once revisions are finalized, those months will likely show net job losses rather than gains.
He talks about businesses freezing hiring, not because they can’t find workers anymore, but because demand has softened. Surveys show fewer job postings, fewer openings, fewer small businesses struggling to hire, and rising continuing unemployment claims. These are the kinds of signals that show up before a recession becomes official. And he emphasizes that none of this looks like a supply issue, if it were, wages would be ripping higher and workers would be job hopping. Instead, wages are cooling, quits are down, and firms say hiring is getting easier. All classic signs of weaker demand.
Consumers Are Tapping Out
Waller’s other major concern is the consumer…especially households outside the top income tiers. He points to Michigan sentiment, which has collapsed to near record lows, and he notes that this lines up with what businesses are telling him…the middle and lower income consumer is stretched. Housing affordability is awful, auto loans are expensive, and big ticket spending is slowing. That’s the part of the economy that usually rolls over first.
He even highlights how distorted things look with AI related stocks: they’re driving markets and profits, but they employ less than 3% of the workforce. That’s his way of saying don’t let the stock market fool you, Main Street is weakening even if Wall Street looks strong.
Inflation Isn’t the Threat Anymore
Then he tackles inflation. His argument is that most of the recent stickiness is due to tariffs…a one time bump, not a new trend. Once you strip that out, he sees underlying inflation close to 2%. And despite five years of overshooting, inflation expectations are still anchored. In other words: the Fed already won this fight, whether they want to admit it out loud or not.
He also makes a point that matters…with wages cooling and demand weakening, there’s no force in the economy that would reignite inflation right now. That’s his justification for focusing almost entirely on jobs.
Where He Wants Policy to Go
With all of that as the backdrop, he makes his conclusion feel “inevitable.” He openly supports another 25 bp cut in December, and he says outright that there’s basically no upcoming data that could change his mind. That’s unusually blunt for a Fed governor. His argument is that the Fed needs to cut now as insurance against a steeper drop in employment later. Waiting would only make the damage worse.
The Subtle Message Underneath
If you read between the lines, Waller is doing two things:
•Reframing the debate inside the Fed away from inflation worries and toward job-market protection.
•Pushing the Committee toward steady easing, not one and done token cuts.
And he’s grounding that push in something simple…the economy is already slowing, consumers are already hurting, and the job market is weaker than the official data shows. He’s telling you the Fed needs to move now, not because things are great, but because they’re deteriorating beneath the surface.
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @econ_SPE: https://t.co/CJr856jdpU
Watch live: https://t.co/MrTbfNIEWU
Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9 - Federal Reserve tweet
Waller’s Warning Shot: The Real Reason He Wants More Cuts
If you strip away the formal tone, Waller’s message is pretty direct…inflation is basically tamed, the job market is fading faster than the official numbers show, and the Fed shouldn’t sit around waiting for a recession before cutting more. He makes it sound academic, but the underlying point is simple, the risks have flipped. Inflation isn’t the danger anymore; unemployment is.
The Labor Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Waller spends most of the speech walking you through why he thinks the job market is already in trouble, even if the headline data hasn’t fully reflected it. He points out that job creation stalled from May through August and once revisions are finalized, those months will likely show net job losses rather than gains.
He talks about businesses freezing hiring, not because they can’t find workers anymore, but because demand has softened. Surveys show fewer job postings, fewer openings, fewer small businesses struggling to hire, and rising continuing unemployment claims. These are the kinds of signals that show up before a recession becomes official. And he emphasizes that none of this looks like a supply issue, if it were, wages would be ripping higher and workers would be job hopping. Instead, wages are cooling, quits are down, and firms say hiring is getting easier. All classic signs of weaker demand.
Consumers Are Tapping Out
Waller’s other major concern is the consumer…especially households outside the top income tiers. He points to Michigan sentiment, which has collapsed to near record lows, and he notes that this lines up with what businesses are telling him…the middle and lower income consumer is stretched. Housing affordability is awful, auto loans are expensive, and big ticket spending is slowing. That’s the part of the economy that usually rolls over first.
He even highlights how distorted things look with AI related stocks: they’re driving markets and profits, but they employ less than 3% of the workforce. That’s his way of saying don’t let the stock market fool you, Main Street is weakening even if Wall Street looks strong.
Inflation Isn’t the Threat Anymore
Then he tackles inflation. His argument is that most of the recent stickiness is due to tariffs…a one time bump, not a new trend. Once you strip that out, he sees underlying inflation close to 2%. And despite five years of overshooting, inflation expectations are still anchored. In other words: the Fed already won this fight, whether they want to admit it out loud or not.
He also makes a point that matters…with wages cooling and demand weakening, there’s no force in the economy that would reignite inflation right now. That’s his justification for focusing almost entirely on jobs.
Where He Wants Policy to Go
With all of that as the backdrop, he makes his conclusion feel “inevitable.” He openly supports another 25 bp cut in December, and he says outright that there’s basically no upcoming data that could change his mind. That’s unusually blunt for a Fed governor. His argument is that the Fed needs to cut now as insurance against a steeper drop in employment later. Waiting would only make the damage worse.
The Subtle Message Underneath
If you read between the lines, Waller is doing two things:
•Reframing the debate inside the Fed away from inflation worries and toward job-market protection.
•Pushing the Committee toward steady easing, not one and done token cuts.
And he’s grounding that push in something simple…the economy is already slowing, consumers are already hurting, and the job market is weaker than the official data shows. He’s telling you the Fed needs to move now, not because things are great, but because they’re deteriorating beneath the surface.
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook @econ_SPE: https://t.co/CJr856jdpU
Watch live: https://t.co/MrTbfNIEWU
Learn more about Governor Waller: https://t.co/x9pLY09PF9 - Federal Reserve tweet
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts
Thank you to the Society for the honor of addressing your annual meeting.1 In doing a little research on the SPE's history, I noted that one goal cited by the business economists who founded this group was creating a forum to discuss the divergence between…
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🇯🇵 Japan May Be the First Domino And The U.S. Should Pay Attention
Japan is quietly stepping out of the role it played for thirty years: the world’s source of near free money. When Japanese rates were pinned at zero, their pension funds, insurers, and banks had no choice but to send money abroad. That steady flow kept global borrowing costs lower than they should’ve been, especially in the U.S.
Now that Japan finally pays a real return at home, that flow slows. And the reason yields are rising isn’t because Japan is booming, it’s because inflation lingered, the currency weakened, deficits grew, and the market is finally pricing the risks of a country that can’t hide behind deflation anymore.
Why This Matters for the U.S.
For the U.S., this shift removes a quiet safety net. If Japanese money stays in Japan, America has to absorb more of its own debt issuance. That makes long term rates stickier, financial conditions tighter, and mistakes harder to hide. You already see the Fed adjusting: ending QT early, softening Basel rules so banks don’t retreat from Treasuries, and checking the repo plumbing to make sure nothing snaps when liquidity gets thin.
So Japan doesn’t create a crisis but it reduces the room for error. In a world where Washington is issuing record debt, losing a reliable buyer like Japan matters.
The Tariff Angle And the Smoot-Hawley Echo
Now layer tariffs on top of this. Tariffs don’t automatically cause a depression, but they do raise costs, reduce trade, and strain already fragile supply chains. In the 1930s, Smoot-Hawley didn’t create the Great Depression but it made a bad downturn worse. Countries retaliated, trade collapsed, and the world’s economic contraction deepened. It accelerated the pain because everyone was tightening policy at the same time, fighting each other instead of stabilizing demand.
Today’s setup rhymes uncomfortably with that moment. Growth is already soft in Europe and China. The U.S. consumer is slowing. Japan, once a deflation shock absorber is no longer exporting cheap capital. If tariffs escalate globally, they could choke off trade right as the financial system is losing its old supports. That combination is exactly how you turn a normal slowdown into something sharper.
Could Japan Ever Go Back to Zero?
It can, but only for the wrong reasons. Japan would be pushed back into its cheap money factory role if the world were falling into a global deflationary slump, collapsing demand, falling prices, trade retreating, unemployment rising everywhere. In that world, the BOJ would be forced back into heavy bond buying just to keep the system from seizing. Yields would crash, but not because anything was healthy, because everything was shrinking.
And the U.S. would feel it immediately…plunging Treasury yields, a return of QE, a stronger dollar, and the kind of financial stress that comes when the world suddenly gets scared of its own shadow.
The Real Message
Japan’s bond market is signaling a regime shift. Tariffs are adding friction to a system already running tight. Put together, they tell you the global economy is losing its old shock absorbers and the U.S. can’t rely on the same easy backdrop it had for the last 20 years. This isn’t panic, but it’s a clear sign that the world is entering a more fragile, less forgiving phase.
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🇯🇵 Japan May Be the First Domino And The U.S. Should Pay Attention
Japan is quietly stepping out of the role it played for thirty years: the world’s source of near free money. When Japanese rates were pinned at zero, their pension funds, insurers, and banks had no choice but to send money abroad. That steady flow kept global borrowing costs lower than they should’ve been, especially in the U.S.
Now that Japan finally pays a real return at home, that flow slows. And the reason yields are rising isn’t because Japan is booming, it’s because inflation lingered, the currency weakened, deficits grew, and the market is finally pricing the risks of a country that can’t hide behind deflation anymore.
Why This Matters for the U.S.
For the U.S., this shift removes a quiet safety net. If Japanese money stays in Japan, America has to absorb more of its own debt issuance. That makes long term rates stickier, financial conditions tighter, and mistakes harder to hide. You already see the Fed adjusting: ending QT early, softening Basel rules so banks don’t retreat from Treasuries, and checking the repo plumbing to make sure nothing snaps when liquidity gets thin.
So Japan doesn’t create a crisis but it reduces the room for error. In a world where Washington is issuing record debt, losing a reliable buyer like Japan matters.
The Tariff Angle And the Smoot-Hawley Echo
Now layer tariffs on top of this. Tariffs don’t automatically cause a depression, but they do raise costs, reduce trade, and strain already fragile supply chains. In the 1930s, Smoot-Hawley didn’t create the Great Depression but it made a bad downturn worse. Countries retaliated, trade collapsed, and the world’s economic contraction deepened. It accelerated the pain because everyone was tightening policy at the same time, fighting each other instead of stabilizing demand.
Today’s setup rhymes uncomfortably with that moment. Growth is already soft in Europe and China. The U.S. consumer is slowing. Japan, once a deflation shock absorber is no longer exporting cheap capital. If tariffs escalate globally, they could choke off trade right as the financial system is losing its old supports. That combination is exactly how you turn a normal slowdown into something sharper.
Could Japan Ever Go Back to Zero?
It can, but only for the wrong reasons. Japan would be pushed back into its cheap money factory role if the world were falling into a global deflationary slump, collapsing demand, falling prices, trade retreating, unemployment rising everywhere. In that world, the BOJ would be forced back into heavy bond buying just to keep the system from seizing. Yields would crash, but not because anything was healthy, because everything was shrinking.
And the U.S. would feel it immediately…plunging Treasury yields, a return of QE, a stronger dollar, and the kind of financial stress that comes when the world suddenly gets scared of its own shadow.
The Real Message
Japan’s bond market is signaling a regime shift. Tariffs are adding friction to a system already running tight. Put together, they tell you the global economy is losing its old shock absorbers and the U.S. can’t rely on the same easy backdrop it had for the last 20 years. This isn’t panic, but it’s a clear sign that the world is entering a more fragile, less forgiving phase.
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