Clark Square Capital
RT @TheAppInvestor: 📊 Mobile Gaming Stocks – WK46 ’25:
$GRVY rebounds as live-ops lift an older Ragnarok title, while #BoomBit (BBT.WA) extends its recovery on Big Helmets’ early momentum.
Full weekly trends inside.
#MobileGaming #GameStocks

Article: https://t.co/857eMKuSxF https://t.co/eQYCaJ8zcG
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Quiver Quantitative
Bitcoin has now fallen 19% since this letter was sent.

JUST IN: GOP members of the House Financial Services Committee have asked the SEC to implement Trump's executive allowing crypto in 401Ks.

"We are hopeful that such actions will help the 90 million Americans...secure a dignified, comfortable retirement" https://t.co/72esv9EXU0 - Quiver Quantitative
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App Economy Insights
Love the Super Investors view on @fiscal_ai

All the legends in one dashboard. Every portfolio visualized, including changes over time.

Such a good feature. https://t.co/MZIvFbPs1F
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Robinhood, $HOOD, is rolling out short selling for mobile users today.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 20.98x
•5-Year Mean: 22.29x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.06%
•5-Year Mean: 4.85%

As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ICE is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $850M
•Long-Term Debt: $17.36B

$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 6.03x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 8.6%
•2022: 8.3%
•2023: 7.5%
•2024: 8.5%
•LTM: 9.3%

RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 11.4%
•2021: 19.2%
•2022: 6.6%
•2023: 10.0%
•2024: 10.5%
•LTM: 11.5%

$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions

REVENUES✅
•2015: $3.34B
•2025E: $9.89B
•CAGR: 11.46%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2015: $1.12B
•2025E: $3.97B
•CAGR: 13.49%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2015: $2.43
•2025E: $6.90
•CAGR: 11.00%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 559.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 576.00M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 49.6%
•LTM Gross Margins: 32.4%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~4% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at a 10.49% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (10.49%) required growth rate:

2025E: $6.90 (14% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $7.50 (9% YoY)
2027E: $8.36 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.45 (13% YoY)

$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

25x P/E: $236.25💵 … ~15.9% CAGR

24x P/E: $226.80💵 … ~14.4% CAGR

23x P/E: $217.35💵 … ~12.9% CAGR

22x P/E: $207.90💵 … ~11.3% CAGR

21x P/E: $198.45💵 … ~9.8% CAGR

As you can see, we have to assume ~22x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential

At 24x - 25x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens

$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue — the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology

Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it’s justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things

$ICE is also still founder led — Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations

Today at $153💵 $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.

𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬. tweet

EndGame Macro
When Banks Start Saying No: The First Real Crack in the Economy

The blue line is the share of households who applied for any kind of credit over the past year. That’s been pretty steady for a decade, hovering around the low 40% range. In October 2025 it’s 41.1% nothing dramatic there.

The red line is the problem. That’s the share of applicants who were rejected for at least one credit product. A decade ago that sat mostly in the low to mid teens. Now it’s 24.8% roughly one in four and at a new series high. People are asking for credit at roughly normal rates, but a much larger share are being told “no.”

That’s about lenders pulling back. You’re seeing it first in autos and subprime, where non performance is rising, but the aggregate line tells you the mindset has shifted: banks and finance companies are moving from how much can we lend to how do we avoid being caught when the cycle turns.

How rising unemployment feeds into this

As unemployment edges higher, banks don’t wait for defaults to explode before they act. Their models are built on probabilities: when jobless rates move up, the expected chance of a borrower missing payments moves up too. That triggers a few predictable behaviors:
•They raise minimum credit scores and income requirements.
•They cut back on higher risk products (subprime autos, unsecured personal loans, certain cards).
•They quietly reduce limits and become much pickier on borderline files.

From the borrower’s perspective, nothing looks different until they apply and then suddenly the answer is no, or the terms are so bad they walk away. That’s exactly what a rising rejection rate captures.

And once that process starts, it can reinforce the very weakness banks are trying to avoid. People who lose hours or a job can’t use credit as a bridge. They miss payments faster. Delinquencies tick up, validating the banks’ caution and leading to even tighter standards. It’s a feedback loop.

How it trickles into the real economy

When access to credit tightens like this, the impact shows up with a lag, but it’s real:
•Big purchases get delayed or cancelled: cars, appliances, home repairs, education financing.
•Lower and middle income households, who rely most on credit to smooth shocks, pull back hardest on discretionary spending.
•Small businesses that depend on consumer demand see slower sales, and they respond the only way they can: they freeze hiring, cut hours, or trim staff.

So a line on a Fed chart that says 24.8% rejection rate is not just a technical curiosity. It’s an early sign that the adjustment margin in this cycle is shifting from price of credit (higher rates) to availability of credit (more no’s). That shift is usually what takes an economy from feeling merely tight to feeling genuinely strained.

People can live with higher rates for a while. They can’t do much when the answer just becomes…you don’t qualify anymore.

NY Fed: consumer credit application rejection rate hit new series high in Oct, just shy of one-in-four, due in part to auto-loan rejection climbing significantly amid subprime debt nonperformance... https://t.co/fgDlKOGGOy - E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
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App Economy Insights
Saudi PIF just crashed the $WBD bidding war.

Potential buyers include:
$CMCSA, $NFLX, $PSKY.

Now the PIF is reportedly the surprise frontrunner. https://t.co/AkuJenpAPF
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Fiscal.ai
Ozempic (Novo Nordisk) v. Mounjaro (Eli Lilly)

Novo Nordisk continues to lose market share to Eli Lilly in the weight-loss drug category.

$NVO $LLY https://t.co/ok5qATzbTu
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