EndGame Macro
Under the Hood: Jefferson Shows the Fed Is More Worried About Jobs Than Prices
If you peel back the polite language, Jefferson is trying to nudge everyone toward a simple idea…the inflation fight is no longer the center of gravity. The real risk now is the job market starting to sag at the edges. He basically says growth was doing fine before the shutdown, the temporary hit from furloughs and delayed payments will wash out, and the labor market is cooling just enough that unemployment will drift higher from here.
And on inflation, he goes out of his way to frame the recent stall as tariff related. In his view, this isn’t a new wave of sticky, structural inflation. It’s a one time price bump that will pass once inventories adjust. Expectations are still anchored, and that’s what matters to them.
When you put all of that together, he’s laying the groundwork to argue that the Fed should be more worried about slowing demand and job losses than the last bit of inflation progress. That’s why last month’s 25 bps cut makes sense in his eyes, not because they won, but because the risks have flipped. Keeping policy too tight into a softening labor market is the mistake he wants to avoid.
The Quiet Part: Ending QT
The more interesting part is what he doesn’t dramatize. Ending QT. He spends a few sentences on rising repo rates, heavier use of the standing repo facility, and the fed funds rate drifting above IORB, all signs the system was running out of reserves. That’s the same pattern that preceded the 2019 funding blow up.
So instead of waiting for a stress event, they pulled the plug early and froze the balance sheet. He phrases it cautiously, but that’s a meaningful easing step. When a central bank is worried about reserve scarcity, it tells you they’re no longer trying to drain liquidity, they’re trying to protect the plumbing.
What Comes Next
Put it all together and the tone of the speech shifts. This is a Fed shifting into risk management mode. They’re willing to look past tariff noise. They’re increasingly uneasy about labor market softening. They’re done draining reserves. And they’re inching policy toward neutral rather than holding the line at “restrictive.”
If anything, the next surprise is more likely to be the Fed easing faster than markets currently assume, not suddenly turning hawkish again. The speech may sound calm, but the direction he’s pointing is clear…inflation isn’t the threat anymore, the downside risks are. This is the type of setup where cuts come earlier and more decisively than people expect.
tweet
Under the Hood: Jefferson Shows the Fed Is More Worried About Jobs Than Prices
If you peel back the polite language, Jefferson is trying to nudge everyone toward a simple idea…the inflation fight is no longer the center of gravity. The real risk now is the job market starting to sag at the edges. He basically says growth was doing fine before the shutdown, the temporary hit from furloughs and delayed payments will wash out, and the labor market is cooling just enough that unemployment will drift higher from here.
And on inflation, he goes out of his way to frame the recent stall as tariff related. In his view, this isn’t a new wave of sticky, structural inflation. It’s a one time price bump that will pass once inventories adjust. Expectations are still anchored, and that’s what matters to them.
When you put all of that together, he’s laying the groundwork to argue that the Fed should be more worried about slowing demand and job losses than the last bit of inflation progress. That’s why last month’s 25 bps cut makes sense in his eyes, not because they won, but because the risks have flipped. Keeping policy too tight into a softening labor market is the mistake he wants to avoid.
The Quiet Part: Ending QT
The more interesting part is what he doesn’t dramatize. Ending QT. He spends a few sentences on rising repo rates, heavier use of the standing repo facility, and the fed funds rate drifting above IORB, all signs the system was running out of reserves. That’s the same pattern that preceded the 2019 funding blow up.
So instead of waiting for a stress event, they pulled the plug early and froze the balance sheet. He phrases it cautiously, but that’s a meaningful easing step. When a central bank is worried about reserve scarcity, it tells you they’re no longer trying to drain liquidity, they’re trying to protect the plumbing.
What Comes Next
Put it all together and the tone of the speech shifts. This is a Fed shifting into risk management mode. They’re willing to look past tariff noise. They’re increasingly uneasy about labor market softening. They’re done draining reserves. And they’re inching policy toward neutral rather than holding the line at “restrictive.”
If anything, the next surprise is more likely to be the Fed easing faster than markets currently assume, not suddenly turning hawkish again. The speech may sound calm, but the direction he’s pointing is clear…inflation isn’t the threat anymore, the downside risks are. This is the type of setup where cuts come earlier and more decisively than people expect.
Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on the economic outlook and monetary policy @KansasCityFed: https://t.co/8gzRux486K
Learn more about Vice Chair Jefferson: https://t.co/oUzpfyg7jd tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) on X
Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on the economic outlook and monetary policy @KansasCityFed: https://t.co/8gzRux486K
Learn more about Vice Chair Jefferson: https://t.co/oUzpfyg7jd
Learn more about Vice Chair Jefferson: https://t.co/oUzpfyg7jd
Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
$CRWV $NVDA $MSFT OAI
Yikes 😬
Naturally, I asked CoreWeave how they planned to compete, if necessary, with these customers who are also building their own data centers. I am going to give you the written response verbatim:
“We have long-standing, multi-contract relationships with these customers and are deeply integrated with their teams. While some may build their own clusters, they continue to see tremendous value in the best-in-class performance and expertise.”
“This build-out of AI infrastructure is historic in size, and it is not a zero sum game. It will require many providers, working together, to unleash AI’s true promise and potential.”
Astute readers will notice that this does not answer my question. The dodge suggests to me that CoreWeave doesn’t actually have a good answer.
https://t.co/NLTTQOSJY4
tweet
$CRWV $NVDA $MSFT OAI
Yikes 😬
Naturally, I asked CoreWeave how they planned to compete, if necessary, with these customers who are also building their own data centers. I am going to give you the written response verbatim:
“We have long-standing, multi-contract relationships with these customers and are deeply integrated with their teams. While some may build their own clusters, they continue to see tremendous value in the best-in-class performance and expertise.”
“This build-out of AI infrastructure is historic in size, and it is not a zero sum game. It will require many providers, working together, to unleash AI’s true promise and potential.”
Astute readers will notice that this does not answer my question. The dodge suggests to me that CoreWeave doesn’t actually have a good answer.
https://t.co/NLTTQOSJY4
tweet
Offshore
Video
Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: Officially launching next week 👀
For Canadian stocks and ADRs, the same features that are available now for US stocks.
Which means:
Data instantly available after earnings
Click-thru to source filing (as demo'd here)
As reported vs. standardized financials
Adjusted financials
Longer data history (20 years)
tweet
RT @BradoCapital: Officially launching next week 👀
For Canadian stocks and ADRs, the same features that are available now for US stocks.
Which means:
Data instantly available after earnings
Click-thru to source filing (as demo'd here)
As reported vs. standardized financials
Adjusted financials
Longer data history (20 years)
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
The Empire State Manufacturing Report: A Strong Headline Hiding a Weak Foundation
At first glance, the Empire State report looks like something you’d want to cheer. Business conditions jump to 18.7, the strongest print since last November. New orders and shipments rise sharply. Inventories finally move out of negative territory. If you’re only watching the headline number, it feels like manufacturing is catching a second wind.
But once you actually look inside the report, the story gets a lot more complicated and honestly, a lot less healthy than the headline suggests.
Activity Is Up, But the Underlying Pulse Still Looks Weak
The bounce in activity is real, but look at what’s happening underneath:
•Unfilled orders fall again to -5.8, meaning firms are working down backlogs rather than building new business. That’s not a sign of robust, broad based demand. It’s a sign that things got quiet, and now firms are catching up.
•Supply availability worsens, slipping further to -11.5. Even with demand improving, it’s still harder to get inputs. That’s not what a smooth, confident recovery looks like, it’s what late cycle strain looks like.
In a real expansion, orders rise, backlogs rise, and supply eases. Here, orders rise but backlogs shrink and supply chains tighten. That’s not strength, that’s friction.
Pricing Pressure Isn’t Easing the Way It Should
This is the part nobody wants to talk about.
•Prices paid: 49.0
•Prices received: 24.0
Both cooled slightly, but they’re still elevated after two years of supposed normalization. And when you flip to forward looking expectations firms still expect:
•Prices paid to stay extremely high (62.5)
•Prices received to rise further (41.3)
This isn’t an economy gliding back to 2% inflation. It’s an economy where firms still assume costs will rise and they’ll be able to pass a chunk of that through.
The Labor Market Lift Is Real… but Small
Employment did tick up to 6.6, and the average workweek jumped to 7.7, a multi year high.
But zoom into the distribution on the same page:
•Only 13.8% of firms are hiring
•7.2% are cutting
•The majority are doing nothing
This is not broad based hiring. It’s mild relief after a soft patch, not the beginning of a strong labor resurgence. And again, that lines up with a late cycle pattern: firms stretch hours first before committing to new hires.
The Most Telling Signal: Optimism Falls
Here’s the part that flips the whole narrative: the future expectations index falls hard from 30.3 to 19.1 even as current activity improves.
That is exactly what you see when businesses enjoy a brief uptick but don’t trust it to last.
•Orders today? Up.
•Outlook six months from now? Down.
It’s the economic equivalent of smiling at the moment but glancing over your shoulder.
Why This Isn’t the “Everything Is Fine” Print People Want
If you put all of it together…rising activity, shrinking backlogs, input constraints, elevated pricing pressure, cautious hiring, and a sharp drop in optimism the picture becomes much clearer:
This is a late cycle relief bounce, not a sign that the economy is gaining real momentum.
It’s the kind of report you get when things aren’t falling apart, but they’re not strengthening either. Firms are busier than they were a few months ago, but they’re also more uncertain, more squeezed, and more constrained.
The cheerleaders will focus on the 18.7 headline. Anyone who actually reads the survey will see the real message.
The economy is wobbling forward with just enough energy to disguise the fact that the underlying supports are getting thinner.
The November Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity grew at a solid pace in New York State. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 18.7, its highest reading in a year.
https://t.co/psUPHT8E8l https://t.co/Kk83Y82zOu - New York Fed Research tweet
The Empire State Manufacturing Report: A Strong Headline Hiding a Weak Foundation
At first glance, the Empire State report looks like something you’d want to cheer. Business conditions jump to 18.7, the strongest print since last November. New orders and shipments rise sharply. Inventories finally move out of negative territory. If you’re only watching the headline number, it feels like manufacturing is catching a second wind.
But once you actually look inside the report, the story gets a lot more complicated and honestly, a lot less healthy than the headline suggests.
Activity Is Up, But the Underlying Pulse Still Looks Weak
The bounce in activity is real, but look at what’s happening underneath:
•Unfilled orders fall again to -5.8, meaning firms are working down backlogs rather than building new business. That’s not a sign of robust, broad based demand. It’s a sign that things got quiet, and now firms are catching up.
•Supply availability worsens, slipping further to -11.5. Even with demand improving, it’s still harder to get inputs. That’s not what a smooth, confident recovery looks like, it’s what late cycle strain looks like.
In a real expansion, orders rise, backlogs rise, and supply eases. Here, orders rise but backlogs shrink and supply chains tighten. That’s not strength, that’s friction.
Pricing Pressure Isn’t Easing the Way It Should
This is the part nobody wants to talk about.
•Prices paid: 49.0
•Prices received: 24.0
Both cooled slightly, but they’re still elevated after two years of supposed normalization. And when you flip to forward looking expectations firms still expect:
•Prices paid to stay extremely high (62.5)
•Prices received to rise further (41.3)
This isn’t an economy gliding back to 2% inflation. It’s an economy where firms still assume costs will rise and they’ll be able to pass a chunk of that through.
The Labor Market Lift Is Real… but Small
Employment did tick up to 6.6, and the average workweek jumped to 7.7, a multi year high.
But zoom into the distribution on the same page:
•Only 13.8% of firms are hiring
•7.2% are cutting
•The majority are doing nothing
This is not broad based hiring. It’s mild relief after a soft patch, not the beginning of a strong labor resurgence. And again, that lines up with a late cycle pattern: firms stretch hours first before committing to new hires.
The Most Telling Signal: Optimism Falls
Here’s the part that flips the whole narrative: the future expectations index falls hard from 30.3 to 19.1 even as current activity improves.
That is exactly what you see when businesses enjoy a brief uptick but don’t trust it to last.
•Orders today? Up.
•Outlook six months from now? Down.
It’s the economic equivalent of smiling at the moment but glancing over your shoulder.
Why This Isn’t the “Everything Is Fine” Print People Want
If you put all of it together…rising activity, shrinking backlogs, input constraints, elevated pricing pressure, cautious hiring, and a sharp drop in optimism the picture becomes much clearer:
This is a late cycle relief bounce, not a sign that the economy is gaining real momentum.
It’s the kind of report you get when things aren’t falling apart, but they’re not strengthening either. Firms are busier than they were a few months ago, but they’re also more uncertain, more squeezed, and more constrained.
The cheerleaders will focus on the 18.7 headline. Anyone who actually reads the survey will see the real message.
The economy is wobbling forward with just enough energy to disguise the fact that the underlying supports are getting thinner.
The November Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity grew at a solid pace in New York State. The headline general business conditions index climbed eight points to 18.7, its highest reading in a year.
https://t.co/psUPHT8E8l https://t.co/Kk83Y82zOu - New York Fed Research tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
$META remains one of the strongest compounders in the market, but its stock faces short-term risks.
Here’s why 👇
🔹The largest social media company with massive network effects.
🔹Unmatched user base and engagement across billions of users.
🔹Dominant advertising scale with no true competition.
🔹Leader in AI development & positioned for the next decade.
🔹Massive growth potential with hardwares.
🔹Beginning to monetize new platforms.
🔹Strong growth and expanding margins driven by AI efficiency.
🔹Multiples contracting due to fears over AI spending.
The bear case?
🔹 Margins shrinking due to heavy AI investments, rising expenses and depreciation.
🔹 Uncertainty around future AI monetization beyond first efficiency gains; no ceiling in sight yet and current trends show no reason to be bearish.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $META's business remains one of the strongest in the market but its stock may face pressure with margins compression. Long term? No concern despite potential short-term volatility.
Question is, can you stomach a weak period for the stock… or will it never even come?
tweet
$META remains one of the strongest compounders in the market, but its stock faces short-term risks.
Here’s why 👇
🔹The largest social media company with massive network effects.
🔹Unmatched user base and engagement across billions of users.
🔹Dominant advertising scale with no true competition.
🔹Leader in AI development & positioned for the next decade.
🔹Massive growth potential with hardwares.
🔹Beginning to monetize new platforms.
🔹Strong growth and expanding margins driven by AI efficiency.
🔹Multiples contracting due to fears over AI spending.
The bear case?
🔹 Margins shrinking due to heavy AI investments, rising expenses and depreciation.
🔹 Uncertainty around future AI monetization beyond first efficiency gains; no ceiling in sight yet and current trends show no reason to be bearish.
You'll find more details in the full breakdown below, but one conclusion stands: $META's business remains one of the strongest in the market but its stock may face pressure with margins compression. Long term? No concern despite potential short-term volatility.
Question is, can you stomach a weak period for the stock… or will it never even come?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
WealthyReadings
The market is now pricing no December cut. That’s not the only reason for current weakness, but it’s worth a recap of the actual situation.
And why it might get a surprise.
The FED is still stuck between inflation and a weakening labor market. Recent inflation data was stable, tariffs weren't fully passed through to consumers - yet, and we already have confirmation that tariffs will ease - they already did with China, so what was a strong pressure should be reduced and give more visibility to the FED and business.
On the jobs side, things were bad and are getting worse. The temporary government shutdown didn’t help, and we’ve seen tens of thousands of layoffs these last weeks, after the last cut.
The labor market is weaker. Inflation is steady with positive long term signals. And the FED had planned additional cuts this year.
If they don’t cut? The market is already pricing that in.
If they do cut? The market isn’t priced for it.
Just sayin’
tweet
The market is now pricing no December cut. That’s not the only reason for current weakness, but it’s worth a recap of the actual situation.
And why it might get a surprise.
The FED is still stuck between inflation and a weakening labor market. Recent inflation data was stable, tariffs weren't fully passed through to consumers - yet, and we already have confirmation that tariffs will ease - they already did with China, so what was a strong pressure should be reduced and give more visibility to the FED and business.
On the jobs side, things were bad and are getting worse. The temporary government shutdown didn’t help, and we’ve seen tens of thousands of layoffs these last weeks, after the last cut.
The labor market is weaker. Inflation is steady with positive long term signals. And the FED had planned additional cuts this year.
If they don’t cut? The market is already pricing that in.
If they do cut? The market isn’t priced for it.
Just sayin’
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
RT @TheAppInvestor: 📊 Mobile Gaming Stocks – WK46 ’25:
$GRVY rebounds as live-ops lift an older Ragnarok title, while #BoomBit (BBT.WA) extends its recovery on Big Helmets’ early momentum.
Full weekly trends inside.
#MobileGaming #GameStocks
Article: https://t.co/857eMKuSxF https://t.co/eQYCaJ8zcG
tweet
RT @TheAppInvestor: 📊 Mobile Gaming Stocks – WK46 ’25:
$GRVY rebounds as live-ops lift an older Ragnarok title, while #BoomBit (BBT.WA) extends its recovery on Big Helmets’ early momentum.
Full weekly trends inside.
#MobileGaming #GameStocks
Article: https://t.co/857eMKuSxF https://t.co/eQYCaJ8zcG
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Bitcoin has now fallen 19% since this letter was sent.
tweet
Bitcoin has now fallen 19% since this letter was sent.
JUST IN: GOP members of the House Financial Services Committee have asked the SEC to implement Trump's executive allowing crypto in 401Ks.
"We are hopeful that such actions will help the 90 million Americans...secure a dignified, comfortable retirement" https://t.co/72esv9EXU0 tweet