Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
Great thread on Vera Bradley -- $VRA
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Great thread on Vera Bradley -- $VRA
Ok, hear me out – Vera Bradley $VRA revenue is up in October YoY with 8 fewer full-price stores. Here I will quickly summarize why I think it's worth at least 2x from here:
- Vera Bradley is an easy fix after terrible re-brand by Jackie Ardrey that alienated its loyal customer base and did not attract any new customers as product was lacking its DNA
- Jackie Ardrey is out and Ian Bickley is a new interim CEO (spent most of his career at Coach, sits on the BoD of Crocs)
- Ian Bickley did something very right – he went to TikTok and actually LISTENED to what loyal customers were saying. He brought back 100 handbag in new colors and sent the product to some VB ambassadors (VB queen emma liz, itsliddystyle and some others). As a result 3 out of 6 styles were sold out (were added since then and only Mistletoe Lattice is out of stock now)
- Collab with Anthropologie was also a success – Lattice Patchwork Mistletoe (TBH the only one that looks great) duffel bag and hathaway tote were sold out, duffel bag was added once but sold out again. Another style that is really trending is Star Patchwork – duffel, 100 bag, zip tote, hathaway tote. The point here is the product finally is right and it is with VB heritage
- Real estate sale leaseback – great work @ClarkSquareCap that found out that company is putting its industrial property in Roanoke, IN to the market for $29.5 mil ( $VRA market cap is $65 mil)
- Looks like company is in process of quickly liquidating its old inventory (around $100 mil as of last report) to have some working caital for the new products – outlet quality items are now in Costco, Marshalls and TJX
- Company has no debt
- Website traffic is also positive YoY tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$SE Sea Limited Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +38% Y/Y to $6.0B ($0.4B beat).
• EPS $0.59 ($0.15 miss).
🟠 Shopee marketplace +37% Y/Y to $3.8B
🔵 Monee revenue +61% Y/Y to $1.0B.
🔴 Garena Bookings +51% Y/Y to $0.8B. https://t.co/sQKkeMfQNq
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$SE Sea Limited Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +38% Y/Y to $6.0B ($0.4B beat).
• EPS $0.59 ($0.15 miss).
🟠 Shopee marketplace +37% Y/Y to $3.8B
🔵 Monee revenue +61% Y/Y to $1.0B.
🔴 Garena Bookings +51% Y/Y to $0.8B. https://t.co/sQKkeMfQNq
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Sea Limited reported strong growth across all of categories.
E-Commerce: +35%
Financial Services: +61%
Digital Entertainment: +31%
They've now grown total revenue by more than 40% annually since 2019.
$SE https://t.co/BkUHYEp1l4
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Sea Limited reported strong growth across all of categories.
E-Commerce: +35%
Financial Services: +61%
Digital Entertainment: +31%
They've now grown total revenue by more than 40% annually since 2019.
$SE https://t.co/BkUHYEp1l4
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
$META
https://t.co/2W1RREKqcp
GEM overcomes these challenges through:
- A scalable model architecture that is now 4x more efficient at driving ad performance gains for a given amount of data and compute than our original ads recommendation ranking models.
- A new framework that improves knowledge transfer effectiveness, achieving 2x the effectiveness of standard knowledge distillation.
- A new training stack that delivers a 23x increase in effective training FLOPS with a 1.43x increase in model FLOPS utilization (MFU) using 16x more GPUs.
Looking ahead, GEM will learn from Meta’s entire ecosystem including user interactions on organic and ads content across modalities such as text, images, audio, and video. These learnings from GEM will be extended to cover all major surfaces across Facebook and Instagram. This stronger multimodal foundation helps GEM capture nuances behind clicks, conversions, and long-term value, paving the way for a unified engagement model that can intelligently rank both organic content and ads, delivering maximum value for people and advertisers.
We will continue to scale GEM and train on even larger clusters by advancing its architecture and advancing training recipes on the latest AI hardware, enabling it to learn efficiently from more data with diverse modalities to deliver precise predictions. We will also evolve GEM to reason with inference-time scaling to optimize compute allocation, power intent-centric user journeys, and enable agentic, insight-driven advertiser automation that drive higher ROAS.
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$META
https://t.co/2W1RREKqcp
GEM overcomes these challenges through:
- A scalable model architecture that is now 4x more efficient at driving ad performance gains for a given amount of data and compute than our original ads recommendation ranking models.
- A new framework that improves knowledge transfer effectiveness, achieving 2x the effectiveness of standard knowledge distillation.
- A new training stack that delivers a 23x increase in effective training FLOPS with a 1.43x increase in model FLOPS utilization (MFU) using 16x more GPUs.
Looking ahead, GEM will learn from Meta’s entire ecosystem including user interactions on organic and ads content across modalities such as text, images, audio, and video. These learnings from GEM will be extended to cover all major surfaces across Facebook and Instagram. This stronger multimodal foundation helps GEM capture nuances behind clicks, conversions, and long-term value, paving the way for a unified engagement model that can intelligently rank both organic content and ads, delivering maximum value for people and advertisers.
We will continue to scale GEM and train on even larger clusters by advancing its architecture and advancing training recipes on the latest AI hardware, enabling it to learn efficiently from more data with diverse modalities to deliver precise predictions. We will also evolve GEM to reason with inference-time scaling to optimize compute allocation, power intent-centric user journeys, and enable agentic, insight-driven advertiser automation that drive higher ROAS.
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Offshore
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Quartr
Three visuals from our recent deep dive on Rolls-Royce.
1. Three decades of $RR.L: https://t.co/pX5SsNtjMq
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Three visuals from our recent deep dive on Rolls-Royce.
1. Three decades of $RR.L: https://t.co/pX5SsNtjMq
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Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$SE Sea is improving its operating profit.
🔴 Gaming has stabilized after years of decline.
🔵 Monee is on track for $1B in FY25.
🟠 Shopee has improved for 5 straight quarters. https://t.co/sqqeCeHhxZ
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$SE Sea is improving its operating profit.
🔴 Gaming has stabilized after years of decline.
🔵 Monee is on track for $1B in FY25.
🟠 Shopee has improved for 5 straight quarters. https://t.co/sqqeCeHhxZ
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: William Lansing, $FICO CEO on Q4 2025 call
“We've been rewarded for that conservatism in years past because rates have had for the last several years not come down to the extent that people expected. And we've done more of the same this year.
𝐒𝐨 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧, 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞.”
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RT @DimitryNakhla: William Lansing, $FICO CEO on Q4 2025 call
“We've been rewarded for that conservatism in years past because rates have had for the last several years not come down to the extent that people expected. And we've done more of the same this year.
𝐒𝐨 𝐚𝐥𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧, 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐠𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞.”
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $FICO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 43.42x
•3-Year Mean: 48.82x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.33%
•3-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~8% MORE in earnings per share & about the same in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $FICO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
•Long-Term Debt: $2.38B
$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 33.8%
•2022: 48.9%
•2023: 52.8%
•2024: 56.9%
•LTM: 63.1%
$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $1.29B
•2025E: $1.99B
•CAGR: 9.05%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $342.93M
•2025E: $746.89M
•CAGR: 16.84%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $9.76
•2025E: $29.55
•CAGR: 24.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 29.93M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M
By reducing its shares outstanding by 17.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 20.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% MORE in EPS & about the same in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.71% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.71%) required growth rate:
2025E: $29.55 (24% YoY) *FY Sep
2026E: $39.12 (32% YoY)
2027E: $49.88 (27% YoY)
2028E: $63.60 (27% YoY)
$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $63.60 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2544💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
38x P/E: $2416💵 … ~15.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2289💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2162💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
32x P/E: $2035💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings multiple (allowing for ~20% multiple compression)
$FICO new licensing & pricing model via its Mortgage Direct License Program can be a multi-year catalyst & we’ve already seen 2028 EPS estimates increased from ~$55 to ~$63 in reaction to this development
$FICO is also well-positioned to capitalize on a potential mortgage rate refinancing surge
Together, these catalysts could propel $FICO into a multi-year period of earnings acceleration
$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1570💵
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $FICO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 43.42x
•3-Year Mean: 48.82x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.33%
•3-Year Mean: 2.32%
As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~8% MORE in earnings per share & about the same in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $FICO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
•Long-Term Debt: $2.38B
$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 33.8%
•2022: 48.9%
•2023: 52.8%
•2024: 56.9%
•LTM: 63.1%
$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2020: $1.29B
•2025E: $1.99B
•CAGR: 9.05%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $342.93M
•2025E: $746.89M
•CAGR: 16.84%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $9.76
•2025E: $29.55
•CAGR: 24.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 29.93M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M
By reducing its shares outstanding by 17.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 20.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% MORE in EPS & about the same in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.71% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.71%) required growth rate:
2025E: $29.55 (24% YoY) *FY Sep
2026E: $39.12 (32% YoY)
2027E: $49.88 (27% YoY)
2028E: $63.60 (27% YoY)
$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $63.60 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $2544💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
38x P/E: $2416💵 … ~15.7% CAGR
36x P/E: $2289💵 … ~13.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2162💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
32x P/E: $2035💵 … ~9.1% CAGR
As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings multiple (allowing for ~20% multiple compression)
$FICO new licensing & pricing model via its Mortgage Direct License Program can be a multi-year catalyst & we’ve already seen 2028 EPS estimates increased from ~$55 to ~$63 in reaction to this development
$FICO is also well-positioned to capitalize on a potential mortgage rate refinancing surge
Together, these catalysts could propel $FICO into a multi-year period of earnings acceleration
$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1570💵
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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