App Economy Insights
Who’s the real winner here?
$MSFT $GOOG $AMZN $META https://t.co/6uzY8dPYu7
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Clark Square Capital
Shared a new idea earlier this week—no paywall on this one. Be sure to check it out. https://t.co/vuA08Zj07S
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App Economy Insights
📊 October earnings visualized. https://t.co/7OlwR2BKfK
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App Economy Insights
📊 How They Make Money — October Report

The latest edition is out!

🔥 70+ companies visualized across tech, finance, entertainment, and more.

What caught your eye this month?

👇 Download the full report:
https://t.co/PMf7sukbSW
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Microsoft just signed a $9.7B contract with $IREN.

We spent the last three months sounding the alarm on a purchase of $IREN stock by a US congressman.

The stock has now risen 330%.

Follow for more! https://t.co/XVXaeC9qIb
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $MA 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.01x
•3-Year Mean: 31.65x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.43%
•3-Year Mean: 3.20%

As you can see, $MA appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MA is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $10.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.98B

$MA has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating, & 23x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 40%
•2021: 45%
•2022: 59%
•2023: 61%
•2024: 64%
•LTM: 68%

$MA maintains strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2015: $9.67B
•2025E: $32.69B
•CAGR: 12.95%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2015: $3.92B
•2025E: $15.30B
•CAGR: 14.58%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2015: $3.43
•2025E: $16.44
•CAGR: 16.96%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.14B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.91B

By reducing its shares outstanding by 20%, $MA increased its EPS by 25% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100%
•LTM Operating Margins: 58.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 45.3%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~7% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MA has to grow earnings at a 15.01% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (15.01%) required growth rate:

2025E: $16.44 (13% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $19.09 (16% YoY)
2027E: $22.19 (16% YoY)
2028E: $25.86 (17% YoY)

$MA has a good record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MA ends 2028 with $25.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $827💵 … ~14.2% CAGR

31x P/E: $801💵 … ~13.1% CAGR

30x P/E: $775💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

29x P/E: $750💵 … ~10.7% CAGR

28x P/E: $724💵 … ~9.5% CAGR

As you can see, $MA appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >30x earnings multiple

Given its growth, quality, & historical averages, a >30x multiple appears more than reasonable for $MA

$MA currently trades at roughly the same forward valuation it did ahead of “Liberation Day,” when it traded down to $480 on April 8, 2025

Today, at $552💵 $MA appears to be a good consideration for investment

At $500💵 $MA offers a stronger margin of safety, supporting a ~12% CAGR while assuming a 27x multiple
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️

𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲.

𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Insiders are saying that Nancy Pelosi will not run for another term in Congress, per NBC News.

If she retires from Congress, you will no longer be able to track her portfolio on Quiver.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Trash stocks are now suffering some of their sharpest drawdowns in five years 📉

$WM -19%
$RSG -21%
$WCN -17% https://t.co/TU5qu8T00r
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