Offshore
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Investing visuals
$AMZN delivered a very strong Q3
• Revenue $180.1B vs Est. $177.8B
• EPS $1.95 vs Est. $1.57
• AWS revenue $33.0B vs Est. $32.4B
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $210B vs Est. $209B
Beat & raise👌 https://t.co/SFHyeQpYAH
tweet
$AMZN delivered a very strong Q3
• Revenue $180.1B vs Est. $177.8B
• EPS $1.95 vs Est. $1.57
• AWS revenue $33.0B vs Est. $32.4B
Q4 Guidance
• Revenue $210B vs Est. $209B
Beat & raise👌 https://t.co/SFHyeQpYAH
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Amazon $AMZN Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $180.17B (+13% YoY)
✅ EPS: $1.95 (+36% YoY)
☁️ AWS $33.01B (+20% YoY)
💵 ADS $17.70B (+24% YoY) https://t.co/KiVF7e0cqQ
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Amazon $AMZN Q3 2025 Report 🗓️
✅ REV: $180.17B (+13% YoY)
✅ EPS: $1.95 (+36% YoY)
☁️ AWS $33.01B (+20% YoY)
💵 ADS $17.70B (+24% YoY) https://t.co/KiVF7e0cqQ
17. Amazon $AMZN (Thurs PM)
🗓️ REV Est: $177.72B (+12%)
🗓️ EPS Est: $1.58 (+10%)
💵 NTM P/E: 32x
💵 NTM FCF Yield: 1.20% https://t.co/7zx5Sx9qiF tweet
Offshore
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Investing visuals
$TEAM posting a solid Q3:
• Revenue: $1.43B vs. Est. $1.40B
• EPS: $1.04 vs. Est. $0.67
Subscription Revenue: $998M +26% YoY https://t.co/989m0yBBA3
tweet
$TEAM posting a solid Q3:
• Revenue: $1.43B vs. Est. $1.40B
• EPS: $1.04 vs. Est. $0.67
Subscription Revenue: $998M +26% YoY https://t.co/989m0yBBA3
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
•5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $93.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗(✅)
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $32.88B
•CAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24💵 … ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34💵 … ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45💵 … ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55💵 … ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
☁️AWS revenue: $116.38B
📈Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
•5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $93.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW🆗(✅)
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $32.88B
•CAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24💵 … ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34💵 … ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45💵 … ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55💵 … ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
☁️AWS revenue: $116.38B
📈Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$AMZN Amazon Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +13% Y/Y to $180.2B ($2.4B beat).
• Operating margin 10% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.95 ($0.39 beat).
• Q4 Guidance: ~$209.5B ($1.4B beat).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $33.0B.
• Operating margin 35% (-3pp Y/Y). https://t.co/2kaNIvC7oy
tweet
$AMZN Amazon Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +13% Y/Y to $180.2B ($2.4B beat).
• Operating margin 10% (+0.5pp Y/Y).
• EPS $1.95 ($0.39 beat).
• Q4 Guidance: ~$209.5B ($1.4B beat).
☁️ AWS:
• Revenue +20% Y/Y to $33.0B.
• Operating margin 35% (-3pp Y/Y). https://t.co/2kaNIvC7oy
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Bill Ackman with a new position in $AMZN
$AMZN compelling valuation, even at ~$200, offers a strong margin of safety, making it a great investment opportunity 📦
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.55x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.60%
•5-Year Mean: 2.69%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in operating cash flow & ~3% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $101.20B
•Long-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $38.22B
•CAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in OCF & ~3% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.65 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (23% YoY)
2027E: $19.75 (18% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.75 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
16x P/OCF: $315.898💵 … ~21.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $296.23💵 … ~18.9% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $276.48💵 … ~15.9% CAGR
13x P/OCF: $256.73💵 … ~12.8% CAGR
12x P/OCF: $236.98💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have great double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~13x P/OCF, a multiple less than what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2008/2009) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also by assuming a substantial amount of multiple compression, we leave ourselves with some margin of safety
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2025E: $50.92B (33% YoY)
2026E: $74.87B (47% YoY)
2027E: $106.84B (42% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $107.55B
📈Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $185💵 $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: Bill Ackman with a new position in $AMZN
$AMZN compelling valuation, even at ~$200, offers a strong margin of safety, making it a great investment opportunity 📦
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 13.55x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.60%
•5-Year Mean: 2.69%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in operating cash flow & ~3% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $101.20B
•Long-Term Debt: $59.72B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 48x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $38.22B
•CAGR: 12.03%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.72B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 48.9%
•LTM Operating Margins: 10.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 9.3%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~63% MORE in OCF & ~3% LESS in FCF per share
We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E. Historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.65 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.77 (23% YoY)
2027E: $19.75 (18% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.75 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
16x P/OCF: $315.898💵 … ~21.7% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $296.23💵 … ~18.9% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $276.48💵 … ~15.9% CAGR
13x P/OCF: $256.73💵 … ~12.8% CAGR
12x P/OCF: $236.98💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have great double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~13x P/OCF, a multiple less than what it’s trading for today (a multiple it hasn’t traded for since 2008/2009) & a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate
Also by assuming a substantial amount of multiple compression, we leave ourselves with some margin of safety
Also check out $AMZN FCF growth estimates 📈
2025E: $50.92B (33% YoY)
2026E: $74.87B (47% YoY)
2027E: $106.84B (42% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN FY 2024:
☁️AWS revenue: $107.55B
📈Ads revenue: $56.21B
Combined, these segments generated $163.76B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $185💵 $AMZN appears to be a strong consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢[...]