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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@LDiscernment - $ACP.WA (update)
@Blinklebloop - $OMSE
@WhiteFalconCap - $AFN.TO
@LaughingH20Cap (fund letter) - $CLAR, $THRY, $LFCR, $VTY.L, $PAR, $NN
@stoiccapital72 - $TOI (update)
@stonkmetal - $DHR (sold) https://t.co/FAbPjmqbqg
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Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@LDiscernment - $ACP.WA (update)
@Blinklebloop - $OMSE
@WhiteFalconCap - $AFN.TO
@LaughingH20Cap (fund letter) - $CLAR, $THRY, $LFCR, $VTY.L, $PAR, $NN
@stoiccapital72 - $TOI (update)
@stonkmetal - $DHR (sold) https://t.co/FAbPjmqbqg
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Yellowbrick Investing
$DCTH
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$DCTH
Long idea pitch time: $DCTH
$DCTH an FDA commercially approved treatment for liver cancer with peak sales estimates around $350M, just saw positive ph2 results in their additional trials which would expand peak sales to ~$500M if approved
Currently trading sub $300M EV ($90M cash, profitable, ramping sales)
Conservative fair value for bios should be around 2X peak sales. Would put fair value around $1B or a 3X from here.
Trading at range lows of 10-11 range. I have traded this twice 9 to 16, then 11 to 16. Now back down to range lows while business outlook just improved so I think next time we test that range high, we break out.
Seeing 20 seems very realistic. 30 (fair value) isn't far-fetched. And in a bio bull, could see much higher as multiples expand beyond fair value.
Even if peak sales are $400M. Still trades sub 1X EV/S (big margin of safety)
The stock was $15 after recent ph2 results, but completely gave back all gains as company pre announced an expectedly weak Q3 and guided down more than analysts expected. For me? Not a concern. This is a treatment that requires many medical professionals. After investing in med tech for a while, it's common for doctors to take summer off for vacation, so it becomes difficult to schedule treatments. Miss was expected and mgmt is early in their launch and learning.
Now we have good and bad news priced in and the price is too low. Expected expanded peak sales from positive data. Lowered 2025 rev guide + now we know the extent of pricing discounts for their treatment (~12%) under rule 340B. So it's all baked in / known info.
I wasn't expecting much from their pipeline but this CHOPIN trial data changed my mind. They also have ongoing earlier trials for colorectal and breast cancer. Big positive: they can self-fund trials with cash on hand + earnings.
If those succeed, could boost peak sales to $1B+, giving reason for this to be a promising long term hold. In that scenario, this could be >7X from here just for fair value. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Logical Thesis (@LogicalThesis) on X
Long idea pitch time: $DCTH
$DCTH an FDA commercially approved treatment for liver cancer with peak sales estimates around $350M, just saw positive ph2 results in their additional trials which would expand peak sales to ~$500M if approved
Currently trading…
$DCTH an FDA commercially approved treatment for liver cancer with peak sales estimates around $350M, just saw positive ph2 results in their additional trials which would expand peak sales to ~$500M if approved
Currently trading…
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@BlokeOak57182 (quick overviews) - $BGCG.L, $9992.HK, $PDD, $BABA, $3750.HK, $GMS.L, $0700.HK, $2899.HK
@AlmostMongolian - $WGR.AX
@cedargrovecm - $WW
@waterboystocks - $CMCSA (overview)
@Quality_stocksA - $MC.PA (pass) https://t.co/x4Ath49FfJ
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Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@BlokeOak57182 (quick overviews) - $BGCG.L, $9992.HK, $PDD, $BABA, $3750.HK, $GMS.L, $0700.HK, $2899.HK
@AlmostMongolian - $WGR.AX
@cedargrovecm - $WW
@waterboystocks - $CMCSA (overview)
@Quality_stocksA - $MC.PA (pass) https://t.co/x4Ath49FfJ
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AkhenOsiris
RT @FundaBottom: $APP: Northbeam updated on the latestweek. AppLovin started ramping up - exactly what I said two weeks ago. Advertisers would ramp up at month-end after going through two optimization weeks. https://t.co/ykRXLKyV6E
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RT @FundaBottom: $APP: Northbeam updated on the latestweek. AppLovin started ramping up - exactly what I said two weeks ago. Advertisers would ramp up at month-end after going through two optimization weeks. https://t.co/ykRXLKyV6E
$APP: Northbeam’s Axon data doesn’t look good today. We should keep a positive outlook—AppLovin’s ecommerce mix is rising gradually, not overnight. Ecommerce advertisers typically need about two weeks to optimize campaigns. We’re also not in the true peak season yet. Most Asian ecommerce advertisers just got back from vacation.
The real ramp should come at the end of the month, not right now.
But everyone’s obsessing over the Northbeam data, which makes me uncomfortable. Last week, when Northbeam didn’t release data, a bunch of people even emailed asking why there was no update. tweet
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App Economy Insights
$INTC Intel Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +3% Y/Y to $13.7B ($0.6B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.23 ($0.22 beat).
• Intel received $5.2B from the Altera transaction and stake sale of Mobileye.
Q4 FY25 Guidance:
• Revenue ~$13.3B ($0.1B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.08 (in-line). https://t.co/USYeaLJtOz
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$INTC Intel Q3 FY25:
• Revenue +3% Y/Y to $13.7B ($0.6B beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.23 ($0.22 beat).
• Intel received $5.2B from the Altera transaction and stake sale of Mobileye.
Q4 FY25 Guidance:
• Revenue ~$13.3B ($0.1B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.08 (in-line). https://t.co/USYeaLJtOz
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App Economy Insights
$GOOG Google Cloud and Anthropic officially announce their cloud partnership.
• Over 1GW of compute capacity in 2026.
• Anthropic gets up to 1M of Google’s TPUs, worth tens of billions of dollars. https://t.co/oP1wTnZzZx
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$GOOG Google Cloud and Anthropic officially announce their cloud partnership.
• Over 1GW of compute capacity in 2026.
• Anthropic gets up to 1M of Google’s TPUs, worth tens of billions of dollars. https://t.co/oP1wTnZzZx
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: The TransDigm acquisition checklist $TDG
1. Proprietary?
2. Aerospace?
3. Sole source?
4. Significant aftermarket?
If yes…
Does it meet management’s 20% IRR threshold over a 5 year period? https://t.co/iGgN1ldv6V
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RT @DimitryNakhla: The TransDigm acquisition checklist $TDG
1. Proprietary?
2. Aerospace?
3. Sole source?
4. Significant aftermarket?
If yes…
Does it meet management’s 20% IRR threshold over a 5 year period? https://t.co/iGgN1ldv6V
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