AkhenOsiris
$APP

Oppenheimer: 'Positive Takeaways from E-Comm Expert Calls'

Target $740
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AkhenOsiris
AI Too Big To Fail

H/T @lokoyacap @TMTBreakout

https://t.co/WSkRS47d3m

This seems like a pretty big deal...Key takeaways from RJ...#3 sounds especially important

1. Unprecedented AI development. This is the U.S. government's first unified, federally-coordinated AI export promotion program, which would significantly increase market share for U.S. compute, software, hardware, and AI infrastructure players.

2. Does China get access to chips? The program's launch further supports our call that China could be approaching access to advanced U.S. AI chips through a "flooding the zone" strategy. By allowing controlled exports and ensuring U.S. technology dominates allied infrastructure, the administration keeps China dependent on U.S. AI systems, even if a generation behind, discouraging adoption of alternatives like Huawei's Ascend chips or DeepSeek's open-source models.

3. Addressing circular financing concerns. As we noted, the program serves as a pressure release valve for concerns around "circular financing" within the AI sector. By establishing a federal financing framework through EXIM and DFC, the program provides concrete, sustainable capital flows for the AI investment cycle, reducing dependence on reciprocal investments among large AI firms.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @astraffon: Thinking out loud here (sort of)... but if states give DKNG too much crap about prediction markets in the US, perhaps this opens up a path for DKNG to go international leveraging Polymarket's global footprint. What is to stop @DraftKings from making markets (or pricing those RFQ parlays) around the world via Polymarket?

Congrats to @DraftKings on their acquisition of @RailbirdHQ.

We’re proud for Polymarket Clearing to be their designated clearinghouse as they enter the prediction market space. - Shayne Coplan 🦅
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $FICO 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 43.42x
•3-Year Mean: 48.82x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.33%
•3-Year Mean: 2.32%

As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~8% MORE in earnings per share & about the same in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $FICO is a great business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
•Long-Term Debt: $2.38B

$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.9%
•2021: 33.8%
•2022: 48.9%
•2023: 52.8%
•2024: 56.9%
•LTM: 63.1%

$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2020: $1.29B
•2025E: $1.99B
•CAGR: 9.05%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2020: $342.93M
•2025E: $746.89M
•CAGR: 16.84%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2020: $9.76
•2025E: $29.55
•CAGR: 24.80%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2020 Shares Outstanding: 29.93M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M

By reducing its shares outstanding by 17.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 20.9% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% MORE in EPS & about the same in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.71% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.71%) required growth rate:

2025E: $29.55 (24% YoY) *FY Sep

2026E: $39.12 (32% YoY)
2027E: $49.88 (27% YoY)
2028E: $63.60 (27% YoY)

$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $63.60 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

40x P/E: $2544💵 … ~17.7% CAGR

38x P/E: $2416💵 … ~15.7% CAGR

36x P/E: $2289💵 … ~13.6% CAGR

34x P/E: $2162💵 … ~11.4% CAGR

32x P/E: $2035💵 … ~9.1% CAGR

As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings multiple (allowing for ~20% multiple compression)

$FICO new licensing & pricing model via its Mortgage Direct License Program can be a multi-year catalyst & we’ve already seen 2028 EPS estimates increased from ~$55 to ~$63 in reaction to this development

$FICO is also well-positioned to capitalize on a potential mortgage rate refinancing surge

Together, these catalysts could propel $FICO into a multi-year period of earnings acceleration

$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1570💵
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$OKLO, valued at $20B, has $0 sales

Yes yes I know…

“You have to invest in the future”

But let me ask you — if you had $20B, would you spend it all to buy $OKLO?

Unlikely

At some point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock falls to $30, declining -84% from all time highs
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Autopilot just hit $1B in AUM.

You can copytrade strategies built on Quiver’s data using their platform.

Check it out if you haven’t yet!

Autopilot just hit $1,000,000,000 in AUM

Putting us in the top 3% of RIA's nation wide

Investing like a politician really gets the people going 🇺🇸 https://t.co/POO9mWWWCT - Chris Josephs
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@FluentInQuality - $3CA.F, $ITP.PA, $ACLS, $AOF.F, $JDG.L, $CER.L
@IdeaBrunchEmail (w/ Mecca Partners) - $FVRR, $NLH.V, $AMCR
@KrokerEquity - $MELI (update)
@GuyImpatient - $EAGR.TO
@LuisVSanchez777 - $GLNG (holding update) https://t.co/u1gsxncu5o
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