AkhenOsiris
$AMZN $GOOGL

Based on discussions with sources with direct knowledge of their AWS billing, I am able to disclose the amounts that AI firms are spending, specifically Anthropic and AI coding company Cursor, its largest customer.

I can exclusively reveal today Anthropic’s spending on Amazon Web Services for the entirety of 2024, and for every month in 2025 up until September, and that that Anthropic’s spend on compute far exceeds that previously reported.

Furthermore, I can confirm that through September, Anthropic has spent more than 100% of its estimated revenue (based on reporting in the last year) on Amazon Web Services, spending $2.66 billion on compute on an estimated $2.55 billion in revenue.

https://t.co/Di1ni0TbmK
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AkhenOsiris
RT @FundaBottom: Based on my own large-scale mobile monitoring, app DAU hit new highs last week. Third-party data should reflect this in the next week or two.

There’s a lot of chatter today that ChatGPT’s DAU growth has topped out.
From what I understand, ChatGPT’s DAUs didn’t grow in September and even saw a month-over-month dip in the second half of the month.
But over the past two weeks, growth has returned to its previous trajectory and DAUs are rising again.
My read is that this ties to Gemini’s surge in September and a modest pullback in October, as well as some diversion from the ChatGPT app to the Sora app.
We also learned that ChatGPT implemented some throttling for underage users in September.
Another big factor people overlook: a large share of ChatGPT users are in China, and when they use VPNs they appear as U.S. or Singapore users. Chinese users take a long holiday in the first week of October and often start traveling before October 1.
So the chart we’re discussing is actually a lagging snapshot. - FundaAI
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
The TransDigm acquisition checklist $TDG

1. Proprietary?
2. Aerospace?
3. Sole source?
4. Significant aftermarket?

If yes…

Does it meet management’s 20% IRR threshold over a 5 year period? https://t.co/iGgN1ldv6V
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: The White House has reportedly begun demolishing the East Wing to build President Trump's ballroom. https://t.co/DJF5Yzboac
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AkhenOsiris
Preach Eric, preach!

The setup for $AMZN is starting to remind me some of $GOOG's a few months ago.

Not long ago, Alphabet’s shares were depressed due to worries about query share loss to third-party LLMs. But fixating on query share loss (though it was very much going on) made investors lose sight of a bunch of AI tailwinds: AI boosting total query volumes and improving ad ROIs, GCP taking share with the help of TPUs and the infra cost advantage they help enable, and TPUs getting sold externally (to Anthropic, xAI, etc.) for the first time.

Much the same way, Amazon has been pressured by worries about AWS (hampered some by its reliance on Trainium) seeing slower cloud revenue growth than Google, $MSFT, $ORCL and neoclouds. But fixating on recent AWS share losses is making investors lose sight of:

- How Anthropic’s breakneck growth (annualized revenue up ~7x already this year) is poised to be a strong tailwind (even if some of Anthropic’s compute needs are being met by Google)
- AWS (aided by its unmatched customer base and product breadth) being well-positioned to benefit as AI compute demand from enterprises and ISVs picks up
- AWS probably benefiting more than anyone as agents start boosting demand for non-AI cloud computing workloads
- Amazon getting serious – probably more so than any other tech giant – about using AI to cut costs and drive margins higher

Also, it looks like Amazon's ad business is doing well, with reports/checks pointing to strong CTV growth and DSP share gains.

One difference between Amazon today and Alphabet a few months ago is that Alphabet’s stock was also pressured by DOJ lawsuit fears, with shares popping after a court’s proposed remedies weren’t as bad as feared. Amazon’s stock isn’t dealing with any kind of similar antitrust overhang. But the similarities in terms of markets focusing on AI headwinds while ignoring a bunch of AI tailwinds look pretty strong. - Eric Jhonsa
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Yellowbrick Investing
$SPHR

$SPHR confirmed $130m ticket sales / 51 calendar days = $2.55m ticket bookings/calendar day.

Probably $145m including F&B at showing or $2.8m Experiences "bookings"/day.

Sellside '26e Experiences estimate = $452m or $1.24m/calendar day.

Good setup...

https://t.co/6zl7yi6HQq - Paris Analyst
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Capital Employed
Five new Q3 fund letters just added.

If you're interested in gold, the letters from Auscap Capital Management and @LawrenceLepard are definitely worth a read.

https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/a1uxfk10pm
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Capital Employed
Make that 7. Q3 letters from @DeepSailCapital and @LaughingH20Cap have just been added too. 👇

Five new Q3 fund letters just added.

If you're interested in gold, the letters from Auscap Capital Management and @LawrenceLepard are definitely worth a read.

https://t.co/wUDSfhTdYl https://t.co/a1uxfk10pm - Capital Employed
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