Yellowbrick Investing
$CTT.AX
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$CTT.AX
$CTT.AX some update on thesis.
Although we didn’t have any update yet from them, and the stock is now in a wait-and-see moment, we have had some very encouraging signals:
Louis Vuitton earnings, beat every consensus case, returning to growth in fashion. Probably nothing. tweet
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Sergi (@mascarosergi) on X
$CTT.AX some update on thesis.
Although we didn’t have any update yet from them, and the stock is now in a wait-and-see moment, we have had some very encouraging signals:
Louis Vuitton earnings, beat every consensus case, returning to growth in fashion.…
Although we didn’t have any update yet from them, and the stock is now in a wait-and-see moment, we have had some very encouraging signals:
Louis Vuitton earnings, beat every consensus case, returning to growth in fashion.…
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App Economy Insights
$TSM TSMC Q3 FY25:
CEO C.C. Wei: "Conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening."
• Revenue +41% Y/Y $33.1B ($1.5B beat).
• Capex $9.7B (vs. $9.6B in Q2 FY25).
• EPADR $2.92 ($0.32 beat).
• FY25 raised from ~30% to mid-30%. https://t.co/HMrLs1E97X
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$TSM TSMC Q3 FY25:
CEO C.C. Wei: "Conviction in the AI megatrend is strengthening."
• Revenue +41% Y/Y $33.1B ($1.5B beat).
• Capex $9.7B (vs. $9.6B in Q2 FY25).
• EPADR $2.92 ($0.32 beat).
• FY25 raised from ~30% to mid-30%. https://t.co/HMrLs1E97X
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Jonathan Jackson just filed new stock trades.
He disclosed his first ever purchase of Robinhood stock, $HOOD.
Jackson sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/LccJhQwz9p
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BREAKING: Representative Jonathan Jackson just filed new stock trades.
He disclosed his first ever purchase of Robinhood stock, $HOOD.
Jackson sits on the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/LccJhQwz9p
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Quiver Quantitative
[NEW FROM OUR DATA]
AOC just disclosed $4.4M in new fundraising in Q3 https://t.co/lSBMUR7Cpf
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[NEW FROM OUR DATA]
AOC just disclosed $4.4M in new fundraising in Q3 https://t.co/lSBMUR7Cpf
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Quiver Quantitative
We published this report when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 7,900% since then.
Track insider activity on Quiver. https://t.co/zd8mBuI1L0
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We published this report when a Carvana bankruptcy looked imminent.
$CVNA has now risen 7,900% since then.
Track insider activity on Quiver. https://t.co/zd8mBuI1L0
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Yellowbrick Investing
Short $UDMY
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Short $UDMY
I am short $UDMY, PT 4.5/sh for >30% downside
it has ~2.5/sh in net cash but think the chances of it attaining a breakeven fcfe level is unlikely if they are unable to reaccelerate revenue growth. So the equity stub is worth very little.
They need at least ~13% adj. EBITDA margins by my estimate to break even on FCFE. If the enterprise continues to decelerate total revenue growth will be negative in a few quarters and the chance of reaching scale will become extremely remote. I think they'll maybe earn .25/sh of FCFE by 2027, but they may need to sacrifice growth to obtain this.
I've provided one scenario of stagnant growth but 15.5% Adj. EBITDA margins by 2027 which is sort of in line with management's LT adj. ebitda target of 17-20% and what I think would likely happen to revenues if they got there -- implied here is a large reduction of SG&A for marketing/ad spend, and or reduction of sales people. Here the PT is around 4.5/sh assuming an 8% discount rate and 0% terminal growth.
Consensus estimates have both margin and revenue growth expansion forecasted which does not seem likely given the recent trends of deceleration across both segments of their business which presumably have no first principles explanation -- more of the typical higher churn, lower NDR, difficult macro etc -- but i suspect its due to some sort of declining value proposition of their services or alternatives like AI agent based learning.
My longer term vision is that human generated video content and learning as well as the ~250k lessons of inventory that UDMY champions to have and advantage them may become obsolete in terms of both content and distribution method due to AI.
It's more of a suspicion than some sort of confirmation so we'll see how the next quarter proceeds but if this bear thesis is correct, then we should see further deceleration of growth or some sort of margin deterioration if growth holds up.
On their enterprise business management has provided a prediction of a near-term bottoming then improvement path: NDR to bottom in Q3’25, be flat in Q4’25, and accelerate in Q1’26, citing (1) a larger pipeline (record $100k+ deal count in Q2), (2) higher win rates, (3) outsourcing SMB renewals so internal teams focus upmarket, and (4) a new Chief Customer Experience Officer to improve renewal/expansion motion. I fail to understand why they have this prediction, what first principles reason do they provide to justify their views--I could not find one. tweet