AkhenOsiris
RT @buccocapital: Amazon such a dog Walter is just tagging Google in Anthropic news
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RT @buccocapital: Amazon such a dog Walter is just tagging Google in Anthropic news
$GOOGL - ANTHROPIC PROJECTS AS MUCH AS $26 BILLION IN ANNUALIZED REVENUE IN 2026: SOURCES tweet
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AkhenOsiris
RT @astraffon: BetMGM's Adam Greenblatt hitting on prediction markets in the Q&A... (yawn) https://t.co/oW4o9oQWaA
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RT @astraffon: BetMGM's Adam Greenblatt hitting on prediction markets in the Q&A... (yawn) https://t.co/oW4o9oQWaA
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 56 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@davidmiedz - $AVXL (short)
@Cosmic_Capital - $INTU (deep dive)
@realThomasNiel - $RAFI (overview)
@DavidDiranko (Monday Monitor) - $THX.V, $0G30.L, $DRX.L, $KYIV, $AKSO.OL
fund letters
and more... https://t.co/nwPGQge4bn
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Added 56 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@davidmiedz - $AVXL (short)
@Cosmic_Capital - $INTU (deep dive)
@realThomasNiel - $RAFI (overview)
@DavidDiranko (Monday Monitor) - $THX.V, $0G30.L, $DRX.L, $KYIV, $AKSO.OL
fund letters
and more... https://t.co/nwPGQge4bn
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Yellowbrick Investing
$BAER
Update on FMS/BAER Research Report:
We've revised the report to remove two sections that speculated on specific contract types FMS Aerospace might bid for related to Space Command and Golden Dome programs.
What we removed:
Sections that outlined potential contract opportunities based on my interpretation of program needs rather than publicly announced RFPs or solicitations by Space Command or Golden Dome. While FMS has relevant capabilities in aircraft modifications, sensor integration, and flight test engineering, I was making informed assumptions about use cases that haven't been confirmed.
It is up to individual investors to interpret what contracts FMS will bid for — we don't want to make assumptions.
What remains unchanged:
→ FMS is an established defense contractor with strong certifications and active DoD contracts
→ Exceptional geographic positioning (2.4 miles from Redstone Arsenal)
→ Huntsville is experiencing unprecedented defense investment
→ Clear synergy potential between FMS's capabilities and regional defense build-out
The core investment thesis:
FMS is well-positioned to compete for opportunities as they emerge based on location, capabilities, and established relationships—but this is a positioning play, not confirmed program participation. As RFPs and task orders are announced, we'll have better visibility into actual contract opportunities.
We're long $BAER, The broader Bridger story remains compelling as the Federal Government changes its approach to wildfire management, and I believe the market significantly undervalues the company independent of FMS's defense optionality.
Full equity research report on Bridger Aerospace coming to https://t.co/4wXEXxZO1z later this week.
Revised Report:
In our due diligence process of Bridger Aerospace $BAER, we discovered interesting dynamics between FMS Aerospace and the Space Command + Golden Dome developments in Huntsville.
FMS Aerospace is wholly owned by Bridger Aerospace, which acquired the company in 2024.
We believe FMS Aerospace is positioned to benefit from the significant defense investment now flowing into Huntsville, Alabama.
There aren't many public equity investments at reasonable valuations that will be direct beneficiaries of these historic US Military investments.
The market appears to assign minimal forward value to FMS Aerospace's positioning.
I. What We Found
FMS Aerospace Profile:
→ Location: 2401 Triana Blvd SW, Huntsville, AL 35805
→ Distance to Redstone Arsenal (Space Command): 2.4 miles
→ Founded: 2013 (12 years operating)
→ Business: Aircraft modifications, sensor integration, flight test engineering for U.S. Government
→ Employees: Est. 50
→ 2023 Revenue: $10.3M, $2.5M net income, $2.0M cash, zero debt
Certifications:
→ FAA Part 145 (modify and certify aircraft in-house)
→ FAA DER Authority (staff can approve modifications—eliminates bottlenecks)
→ AS9100D aerospace quality
→ Active DoD facility clearance
→ Secret/Top Secret cleared personnel
→ Active Air Force contracts (WC-135, KC-135 fleets)
Timeline:
July 1, 2024: Bridger acquires FMS for $20.6M (2.0x 2023 revenue)
September 2, 2025—14 months later: Trump announces Space Command headquarters relocating to Huntsville. Golden Dome ($175-500B program) designated for Huntsville integration.
September 2, 2025—same day: FMS posts LinkedIn statement welcoming Space Command to Huntsville
Ongoing: Building Four under construction at FMS facilities
II. The September 2, 2025 Catalyst
Trump in Oval Office with Alabama Senators Britt and Tuberville:
"This will result in more than 30,000 Alabama jobs and probably much more than that, and hundreds of billions of dollars of investment... Most importantly, this decision will help America defend and dominate the high frontier."
Senator Britt: "Redstone is home to the U.S. Army's Aviation and Missile Command, as well as Space and Missil[...]
$BAER
Update on FMS/BAER Research Report:
We've revised the report to remove two sections that speculated on specific contract types FMS Aerospace might bid for related to Space Command and Golden Dome programs.
What we removed:
Sections that outlined potential contract opportunities based on my interpretation of program needs rather than publicly announced RFPs or solicitations by Space Command or Golden Dome. While FMS has relevant capabilities in aircraft modifications, sensor integration, and flight test engineering, I was making informed assumptions about use cases that haven't been confirmed.
It is up to individual investors to interpret what contracts FMS will bid for — we don't want to make assumptions.
What remains unchanged:
→ FMS is an established defense contractor with strong certifications and active DoD contracts
→ Exceptional geographic positioning (2.4 miles from Redstone Arsenal)
→ Huntsville is experiencing unprecedented defense investment
→ Clear synergy potential between FMS's capabilities and regional defense build-out
The core investment thesis:
FMS is well-positioned to compete for opportunities as they emerge based on location, capabilities, and established relationships—but this is a positioning play, not confirmed program participation. As RFPs and task orders are announced, we'll have better visibility into actual contract opportunities.
We're long $BAER, The broader Bridger story remains compelling as the Federal Government changes its approach to wildfire management, and I believe the market significantly undervalues the company independent of FMS's defense optionality.
Full equity research report on Bridger Aerospace coming to https://t.co/4wXEXxZO1z later this week.
Revised Report:
In our due diligence process of Bridger Aerospace $BAER, we discovered interesting dynamics between FMS Aerospace and the Space Command + Golden Dome developments in Huntsville.
FMS Aerospace is wholly owned by Bridger Aerospace, which acquired the company in 2024.
We believe FMS Aerospace is positioned to benefit from the significant defense investment now flowing into Huntsville, Alabama.
There aren't many public equity investments at reasonable valuations that will be direct beneficiaries of these historic US Military investments.
The market appears to assign minimal forward value to FMS Aerospace's positioning.
I. What We Found
FMS Aerospace Profile:
→ Location: 2401 Triana Blvd SW, Huntsville, AL 35805
→ Distance to Redstone Arsenal (Space Command): 2.4 miles
→ Founded: 2013 (12 years operating)
→ Business: Aircraft modifications, sensor integration, flight test engineering for U.S. Government
→ Employees: Est. 50
→ 2023 Revenue: $10.3M, $2.5M net income, $2.0M cash, zero debt
Certifications:
→ FAA Part 145 (modify and certify aircraft in-house)
→ FAA DER Authority (staff can approve modifications—eliminates bottlenecks)
→ AS9100D aerospace quality
→ Active DoD facility clearance
→ Secret/Top Secret cleared personnel
→ Active Air Force contracts (WC-135, KC-135 fleets)
Timeline:
July 1, 2024: Bridger acquires FMS for $20.6M (2.0x 2023 revenue)
September 2, 2025—14 months later: Trump announces Space Command headquarters relocating to Huntsville. Golden Dome ($175-500B program) designated for Huntsville integration.
September 2, 2025—same day: FMS posts LinkedIn statement welcoming Space Command to Huntsville
Ongoing: Building Four under construction at FMS facilities
II. The September 2, 2025 Catalyst
Trump in Oval Office with Alabama Senators Britt and Tuberville:
"This will result in more than 30,000 Alabama jobs and probably much more than that, and hundreds of billions of dollars of investment... Most importantly, this decision will help America defend and dominate the high frontier."
Senator Britt: "Redstone is home to the U.S. Army's Aviation and Missile Command, as well as Space and Missil[...]
Offshore
Yellowbrick Investing $BAER Update on FMS/BAER Research Report: We've revised the report to remove two sections that speculated on specific contract types FMS Aerospace might bid for related to Space Command and Golden Dome programs. What we removed: Sections…
e Defense Command and the Missile Defense Agency... While this process has shown Washington at its worst, I am confident Huntsville will show our country at its best."
Senator Tuberville: "This is a great day for our country, not just for our state of Alabama. We need help in our military, we need to catch up."
Both senators explicitly referenced Golden Dome missile defense program co-location and emphasized opportunities for local Alabama aerospace contractors to compete for contracts supporting the buildout.
Program Scale:
→ Space Command: 1,400 personnel over 5 years, $30-40B economic impact over 20 years, GAO confirmed $426M cost savings vs Colorado
→ Golden Dome: $175-500B program over 20 years, $25B initial appropriation under discussion, Huntsville designated as primary integration/testing hub, 2028 target IOC
Redstone Arsenal Ecosystem:
→ U.S. Army Materiel Command (HQ)
→ Missile Defense Agency (HQ)
→ Army Space and Missile Defense Command
→ NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
→ 70,000+ defense/aerospace workers
→ 400+ aerospace companies
→ $6B+ annual defense spending
FMS is one of these aerospace companies—located 2.4 miles from Redstone Arsenal with 12 years of established DoD relationships, active military contracts, and defense contracting infrastructure already in place.
Key Competitive Advantages:
→ DOD mandates SME participation
→ Major primes (Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon) require small business subcontractors for Golden Dome compliance
→ FAA DER Authority: Self-certify modifications, eliminating bottlenecks—critical for 2028 timeline
→ No qualification period required: Active Air Force contracts mean documented past performance, clearances in place, DCAA-compliant
→ Established relationships: 12 years in Huntsville, known to Redstone Arsenal, NASA Marshall, MDA
III. The Same-Day Response
Hours after the White House announcement, FMS posted on LinkedIn:
"FMS Aerospace is proud to welcome U.S. Space Command to the Rocket City. Washington's decision to establish Space Command headquarters in Huntsville further solidifies our region as a national hub for aerospace, defense, and innovation. We welcome the Space Force to our community with open arms, recognizing this milestone not only as a point of pride for Huntsville, but also as a testament to the commitment to excellence shared by the many companies that drive this region forward. FMS Aerospace extends our gratitude to Alabama's representatives in Washington for their leadership and steadfast support of our state and its role in advancing America's future with the final frontier."
IV. What Management Said 14 Months Ago
July 2024 acquisition announcement—actual quotes:
Sam Davis, Bridger's Chief Executive Officer:
"Having partnered with the team at FMS on our Multi-Mission Aircraft (MMA) program, which supports our high-resolution surveillance, mapping, software and intelligence operations contracts, we appreciate their strong engineering, modification and manufacturing capabilities. Bringing FMS into the Bridger family will bring together two experienced teams and add additional critical capabilities in house to allow us to continue to grow in mission critical areas including emergency air services, aerospace modifications and defense systems engineering."
Jesse Whitfield, Chief Executive Officer of FMS:
"Bridger provides the physical facilities, qualified personnel and other resources we need to grow our business. We expect that the operational synergies will ultimately allow us to win larger contracts than either company can bid alone."
→ These comments were made 14 months before the Space Command announcement.
V. Building Four & Recent Contracts
Building Four: Under construction at FMS Huntsville facilities concurrent with Space Command announcement. Facility construction lead times suggest planning preceded the public catalyst.
Montana Contract (March 2025):
→ FMS modified Daher Kodiak 100 with advanced sensor suite, r[...]
Senator Tuberville: "This is a great day for our country, not just for our state of Alabama. We need help in our military, we need to catch up."
Both senators explicitly referenced Golden Dome missile defense program co-location and emphasized opportunities for local Alabama aerospace contractors to compete for contracts supporting the buildout.
Program Scale:
→ Space Command: 1,400 personnel over 5 years, $30-40B economic impact over 20 years, GAO confirmed $426M cost savings vs Colorado
→ Golden Dome: $175-500B program over 20 years, $25B initial appropriation under discussion, Huntsville designated as primary integration/testing hub, 2028 target IOC
Redstone Arsenal Ecosystem:
→ U.S. Army Materiel Command (HQ)
→ Missile Defense Agency (HQ)
→ Army Space and Missile Defense Command
→ NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
→ 70,000+ defense/aerospace workers
→ 400+ aerospace companies
→ $6B+ annual defense spending
FMS is one of these aerospace companies—located 2.4 miles from Redstone Arsenal with 12 years of established DoD relationships, active military contracts, and defense contracting infrastructure already in place.
Key Competitive Advantages:
→ DOD mandates SME participation
→ Major primes (Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon) require small business subcontractors for Golden Dome compliance
→ FAA DER Authority: Self-certify modifications, eliminating bottlenecks—critical for 2028 timeline
→ No qualification period required: Active Air Force contracts mean documented past performance, clearances in place, DCAA-compliant
→ Established relationships: 12 years in Huntsville, known to Redstone Arsenal, NASA Marshall, MDA
III. The Same-Day Response
Hours after the White House announcement, FMS posted on LinkedIn:
"FMS Aerospace is proud to welcome U.S. Space Command to the Rocket City. Washington's decision to establish Space Command headquarters in Huntsville further solidifies our region as a national hub for aerospace, defense, and innovation. We welcome the Space Force to our community with open arms, recognizing this milestone not only as a point of pride for Huntsville, but also as a testament to the commitment to excellence shared by the many companies that drive this region forward. FMS Aerospace extends our gratitude to Alabama's representatives in Washington for their leadership and steadfast support of our state and its role in advancing America's future with the final frontier."
IV. What Management Said 14 Months Ago
July 2024 acquisition announcement—actual quotes:
Sam Davis, Bridger's Chief Executive Officer:
"Having partnered with the team at FMS on our Multi-Mission Aircraft (MMA) program, which supports our high-resolution surveillance, mapping, software and intelligence operations contracts, we appreciate their strong engineering, modification and manufacturing capabilities. Bringing FMS into the Bridger family will bring together two experienced teams and add additional critical capabilities in house to allow us to continue to grow in mission critical areas including emergency air services, aerospace modifications and defense systems engineering."
Jesse Whitfield, Chief Executive Officer of FMS:
"Bridger provides the physical facilities, qualified personnel and other resources we need to grow our business. We expect that the operational synergies will ultimately allow us to win larger contracts than either company can bid alone."
→ These comments were made 14 months before the Space Command announcement.
V. Building Four & Recent Contracts
Building Four: Under construction at FMS Huntsville facilities concurrent with Space Command announcement. Facility construction lead times suggest planning preceded the public catalyst.
Montana Contract (March 2025):
→ FMS modified Daher Kodiak 100 with advanced sensor suite, r[...]
Offshore
e Defense Command and the Missile Defense Agency... While this process has shown Washington at its worst, I am confident Huntsville will show our country at its best." Senator Tuberville: "This is a great day for our country, not just for our state of Alabama.…
eal-time infrared imagery, hotspot identification, integrated operator workstation
→ $648K annually, up to $1.9M over 3 years
→ First joint Bridger-FMS project post-acquisition
Air Force WC-135 (September 2025—same month as Space Command):
→ Reverse engineering and obsolescence management for the fleet, leveraging advanced 3D laser scanning and engineering solutions to replace critical aircraft systems that have reached end of life
Air Force KC-135: Ongoing modifications and systems updates
VI. FMS 12-Month TTM Performance
FMS TTM (July 2024-June 2025):
Q3 2024: $1.6M
Q4 2024: $1.4M
Q1 2025: $1.9M
Q2 2025: $0.4M (federal budgeting delays)
TTM Total: $5.3M
VII. Bridger Aerospace Current Performance
Bridger reported record Q2 revenue of $30.8M (136% YoY increase) and achieved first positive net income of $0.3M versus $10M loss prior year.
Strong balance sheet position: $17.0M cash and $18.3M receivables (expected to convert to cash in coming months)
Management signed $46M sale-leaseback for Bozeman campus with proceeds directed to debt reduction, closing expected Q3 2025. Annual interest savings estimated at $3-5M.
Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance at higher end: $105-111M revenue, $42-48M adjusted EBITDA.
Core wildfire business inflecting to profitability while balance sheet being de-risked—and market assigns minimal value to FMS defense positioning.
Valuation:
→ Current market cap: $89M
→ FMS valued at acquisition cost: $20.6M (23% of market cap)
→ Minimal growth premium for Space Command positioning
Investment Thesis:
Bridger acquired a defense contractor 14 months before a major defense catalyst in that contractor's backyard. This represents pattern recognition of strategic positioning that management understood well before the market.
FMS is positioned as a Huntsville-based defense contractor with established relationships, relevant certifications, and exceptional proximity to Redstone Arsenal during a period of unprecedented defense investment in the region.
The core of Bridger's wildfire business is inflecting to profitability with strong operational momentum, while the balance sheet is being systematically de-risked. The market appears to assign zero optionality value to FMS's defense positioning despite the clear structural tailwinds. - Ben Deveran tweet
→ $648K annually, up to $1.9M over 3 years
→ First joint Bridger-FMS project post-acquisition
Air Force WC-135 (September 2025—same month as Space Command):
→ Reverse engineering and obsolescence management for the fleet, leveraging advanced 3D laser scanning and engineering solutions to replace critical aircraft systems that have reached end of life
Air Force KC-135: Ongoing modifications and systems updates
VI. FMS 12-Month TTM Performance
FMS TTM (July 2024-June 2025):
Q3 2024: $1.6M
Q4 2024: $1.4M
Q1 2025: $1.9M
Q2 2025: $0.4M (federal budgeting delays)
TTM Total: $5.3M
VII. Bridger Aerospace Current Performance
Bridger reported record Q2 revenue of $30.8M (136% YoY increase) and achieved first positive net income of $0.3M versus $10M loss prior year.
Strong balance sheet position: $17.0M cash and $18.3M receivables (expected to convert to cash in coming months)
Management signed $46M sale-leaseback for Bozeman campus with proceeds directed to debt reduction, closing expected Q3 2025. Annual interest savings estimated at $3-5M.
Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance at higher end: $105-111M revenue, $42-48M adjusted EBITDA.
Core wildfire business inflecting to profitability while balance sheet being de-risked—and market assigns minimal value to FMS defense positioning.
Valuation:
→ Current market cap: $89M
→ FMS valued at acquisition cost: $20.6M (23% of market cap)
→ Minimal growth premium for Space Command positioning
Investment Thesis:
Bridger acquired a defense contractor 14 months before a major defense catalyst in that contractor's backyard. This represents pattern recognition of strategic positioning that management understood well before the market.
FMS is positioned as a Huntsville-based defense contractor with established relationships, relevant certifications, and exceptional proximity to Redstone Arsenal during a period of unprecedented defense investment in the region.
The core of Bridger's wildfire business is inflecting to profitability with strong operational momentum, while the balance sheet is being systematically de-risked. The market appears to assign zero optionality value to FMS's defense positioning despite the clear structural tailwinds. - Ben Deveran tweet
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The Startup Ideas Podcast (SIP) 🧃
RT @gregisenberg: is genspark ($50M ARR in 6mo) underrated next to chatgpt, claude, gemini, and manus?
i spent 34 minutes testing its “super ai agent” and how it actually works.
1/ you write one prompt and it runs through gpt-5, claude sonnet, gemini 2.5, and mistral large then gives you the best response.
2/ you upload one image and it runs it through nano banana, flux, and bytedance then returns the most realistic version.
3/ you generate a video and genspark routes it through wan 2.2, pika labs, gen-2, and runway ml combining the best clips and motion.
4/ you paste an idea for slides and it uses gpt-5, claude 3 opus, gemini advanced, and genspark’s slide model to create a full deck with visuals and market data.
5/ AI slides and building a fundraising deck with a few prompts (wasn't perfect, but it was a good start for my personal workflow)
what's cool about genspark is it's inexpensive and does it all. kinda like the costco of LLMs.
TLDR; you hand it one prompt + input, and genspark routes sub-tasks across models and tools behind the scenes. it’s orchestration over one ideal model.
perspective shift.
instead of jumping from model to model, llm to llm, genspark shows what the next generation of ai will look like orchestration over obsession.
and for the rest of us using it, the only thing that matters is getting the best outcome.
what other AI app should I review next?
i'll keep doing it if it's helpful for folks.
tweet
RT @gregisenberg: is genspark ($50M ARR in 6mo) underrated next to chatgpt, claude, gemini, and manus?
i spent 34 minutes testing its “super ai agent” and how it actually works.
1/ you write one prompt and it runs through gpt-5, claude sonnet, gemini 2.5, and mistral large then gives you the best response.
2/ you upload one image and it runs it through nano banana, flux, and bytedance then returns the most realistic version.
3/ you generate a video and genspark routes it through wan 2.2, pika labs, gen-2, and runway ml combining the best clips and motion.
4/ you paste an idea for slides and it uses gpt-5, claude 3 opus, gemini advanced, and genspark’s slide model to create a full deck with visuals and market data.
5/ AI slides and building a fundraising deck with a few prompts (wasn't perfect, but it was a good start for my personal workflow)
what's cool about genspark is it's inexpensive and does it all. kinda like the costco of LLMs.
TLDR; you hand it one prompt + input, and genspark routes sub-tasks across models and tools behind the scenes. it’s orchestration over one ideal model.
perspective shift.
instead of jumping from model to model, llm to llm, genspark shows what the next generation of ai will look like orchestration over obsession.
and for the rest of us using it, the only thing that matters is getting the best outcome.
what other AI app should I review next?
i'll keep doing it if it's helpful for folks.
tweet