Umesh
In a galaxy far, far away! https://t.co/e26kzQwZ75

Wonderful sref!

[PROMPT] --chaos 50 --sref 506925685 --profile 6xd26z9 --stylize 500 https://t.co/NFOMDfhJZG - Umesh
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App Economy Insights
$ASML ASML Q3 FY25:

• Net bookings €5.4B (€0.5B beat).
• Net sales +1% Y/Y to €7.5B (€0.2B miss).
• Gross margin 52% (+1pp Y/Y).
• Operating margin 33% (flat Y/Y).
• EPS €5.48 (€0.06 beat).
• FY25 Net sales +15% Y/Y (unchanged). https://t.co/jgjdRKydxp
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Yellowbrick Investing
$2382.HK / $SNPTF

Trade Idea: The Death of the Handheld Device (Sunny Optical)

Cornerstone supplier of precision-engineered lenses, famously for Apple.
The opportunity arises from volume and price tailwinds due to growth and adoption of AI glasses. Financial profile has for years been that of… https://t.co/T7RptByiF5 - ✵
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Yellowbrick Investing
$VRSN short

$VRSN - was initially looking at as a long, now flipped short over next ~12 months. Have more detailed notes I've written up that I can share if interested but general idea is that growth YTD is driven by high-churn registrars through rebates (can use ICANN monthly .Com data to find YTD aggregation. WayBack machine of these registrars shows discounting of ~50% in some cases. These discounts are structured as rebates if registrars hit certain growth rates, so all the investment falls on registrars. After reading through the data I see growth slowing into Q1 FY2026E, and since these registrars higher churn rates + first year promos renew at a lower rate generally, $VRSN's renewal rate should come revert in FY2026E which brings .Com domain base growth negative (major driver as to why stock is up ~30% YTD).

Beyond that, ~30% of .Com domains are parked, and recent changes by Google have banned advertisements on parked domains, cutting parking domain revenue by ~85% - ~90% in recent weeks. These domains now likely either 1) don't make enough to renew their domains or 2) it's uneconomical to keep running parking domains. Keep in mind <30%- Minus Cherry
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Umesh
While X is getting flooded with “insane” Veo 3.1 reactions,

Tried the same prompt on Veo 3.1. Not so impressive tbh (for this prompt)

Each model reacts to any prompt in its own way. Some work well and others not. https://t.co/o0znx6h1qp

Perspective!

Prompt : The shot opens tight on a man’s face in morning city light. Old-style coat. Watchful eyes. The camera moves over his shoulder and tilts to the street: steady traffic, buses at a stop, screens updating on glass.We widen, circling as he steps to a rooftop edge. A train slides across a bridge. Cyclists thread a crosswalk. Then the camera snaps upward fast. Windows flatten to dots. Blocks and lanes form a clear grid. We rise higher: bridges draw sharp lines to the mainland, docks and piers ring the shore. Water surrounds everything.Higher still. Roads become pale threads, trains little beads, ferries leaving thin wakes. The full island sits in frame, bright center, softer edges, blue water on all sides. Far below, he’s a single point on a roof, still in a city that keeps moving. The camera holds, then continues climbing into open sky.

Created using @Kling_ai 2.5 Turbo - Umesh
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $ABNB 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.17x
•3-Year Mean: 32.18x

•NTM FCF Yield: 6.18%
•3-Year Mean: 5.08%

As you can see, $ABNB appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~22% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ABNB is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $11.36B
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$ABNB has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL❌➡️✅
•2020: (65.7%)
•2021: 7.5%
•2022: 24.0%
•2023: 14.5%
•2024: 23.8%
•LTM: 25.9%

RETURN ON EQUITY❌➡️✅
•2020: (172.2%)
•2021: (9.2%)
•2022: 36.6%
•2023: 69.8%
•2024: 31.9%
•LTM: 33.3%

$ABNB has improved its return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $4.81B
•2024: $11.10B
•CAGR: 18.20%

CASH FROM OPERATIONS✅
•2019: $0.22B
•2024: $4.52B
•CAGR: 81.47%

NORMALIZED EPS ESTIMATES✅
•2026: $4.78
•2028: $6.66
•CAGR: 18.03%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 260.56M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 634.00M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 83.2%
•LTM Operating Margins: 22.5%
•LTM Gross Margins: 22.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~22% MORE FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ABNB has to grow earnings at a 14.14% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (14.14%) required growth rate:

2025E: $4.23 (3% YoY)

2026E: $4.78 (13% YoY)
2027E: $5.60 (17% YoY)
2028E: $6.66 (19% YoY) *FY Dec

$ABNB has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ABNB ends 2028 with $6.66 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $213.12💵 … ~18.0% CAGR

31x P/E: $206.46💵 … ~16.8% CAGR

30x P/E: $199.80💵 … ~15.6% CAGR

29x P/E: $193.14💵 … ~14.4% CAGR

28x P/E: $156.80💵 … ~13.2% CAGR

27x P/E: $179.82💵 … ~11.9% CAGR

As you can see, $ABNB appears to have attractive double digit CAGR potential at 27x

I believe $ABNB could reasonably demand a 28x - 30x multiple (given its growth rate, margins, & strong UI and brand)

Moreover, $ABNB still has a lot of potential to monetize its marketplace and activate new growth levers, further enhancing its future growth prospects

Today at $125💵 $ABNB appears to be trading at a decent value proposition & is a good consideration for investment

I consider $ABNB to have a large margin of safety closer to $105💵 where I can expect mid-teens CAGR potential assuming a 25x end multiple in 2028

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Robert Bresnahan just disclosed massive options bets.

He filed up to $175K of trades in $QQQ, $SPY, and $IWM call options.

He says the trades were made by advisors.

Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/i4qfEC2csZ
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