Offshore
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 55 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@East72Dynasty (fund letter) - $BOL.PA, $EXO.AS, $UHR.SW
@BlokeOak57182 - $AVAP.L
@ASB_Partners - $FPH (neutral)
@FluentInQuality - $TGLS, $TVK.TO, $SEZL, $YETI, $DPLM.L, $AUB.AX, $HEM.ST, $VIT-B.ST https://t.co/TWRXJW3krr
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Added 55 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@East72Dynasty (fund letter) - $BOL.PA, $EXO.AS, $UHR.SW
@BlokeOak57182 - $AVAP.L
@ASB_Partners - $FPH (neutral)
@FluentInQuality - $TGLS, $TVK.TO, $SEZL, $YETI, $DPLM.L, $AUB.AX, $HEM.ST, $VIT-B.ST https://t.co/TWRXJW3krr
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Offshore
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Investing visuals
$SPY top 10 holdings account for 38% of the total index right now.
Top 3:
• $NVDA: 7.3%
• $MSFT: 7%
• $AAP: 6% https://t.co/VnRhP9G2rt
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$SPY top 10 holdings account for 38% of the total index right now.
Top 3:
• $NVDA: 7.3%
• $MSFT: 7%
• $AAP: 6% https://t.co/VnRhP9G2rt
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @ecommerceshares: $GOOG is now the only full-stack player in Cloud & AI. Huge advantage in terms of data, security, simplicity and governance.
$MSFT still runs ChatGPT, while $AMZN has no workspace apps, email etc. OpenAI meanwhile lacks cloud, data storage, email, enterprise apps etc…
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RT @ecommerceshares: $GOOG is now the only full-stack player in Cloud & AI. Huge advantage in terms of data, security, simplicity and governance.
$MSFT still runs ChatGPT, while $AMZN has no workspace apps, email etc. OpenAI meanwhile lacks cloud, data storage, email, enterprise apps etc…
$GOOGL just launched Gemini Enterprise, its new agentic AI platform built to compete with Microsoft and OpenAI.
The platform unifies Google’s latest Gemini models, a no-code workbench, customizable business agents, and a secure data layer, all managed under one governance system for tracking and auditing.
Google says Gemini Enterprise can integrate across an entire organization to automate workflows and boost productivity, with major potential in healthcare and life sciences where agents can cut regulatory review times and reduce errors.
The product marks Google’s full entry into the AI agent platform race, following OpenAI’s AgentKit launch earlier this week. tweet
Offshore
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 55 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@Quality_stocksA - $PAYX (overview)
@HealthStockPick - $3600.HK (update)
@IdeaBrunchEmail (w/ Sophon Capital) - $GRVY, $TBRD.V, $SMCRT.OL
@BastianelliLore - $LMND
@Unclestocknotes - $ONDS (update)
and more... https://t.co/bVrkhk0kNh
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Added 55 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@Quality_stocksA - $PAYX (overview)
@HealthStockPick - $3600.HK (update)
@IdeaBrunchEmail (w/ Sophon Capital) - $GRVY, $TBRD.V, $SMCRT.OL
@BastianelliLore - $LMND
@Unclestocknotes - $ONDS (update)
and more... https://t.co/bVrkhk0kNh
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.31x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
•5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $1.00B
•Long-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 8.6%
•2022: 8.3%
•2023: 7.5%
•2024: 8.5%
•LTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 11.4%
•2021: 19.2%
•2022: 6.6%
•2023: 10.0%
•2024: 10.5%
•LTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUES✅
•2014: $3.09B
•2024: $9.28B
•CAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.20B
•CAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.93
•2024: $6.07
•CAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
•LTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65💵 … ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue — the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it’s justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led — Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162💵 $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSURE‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.31x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
•5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $1.00B
•Long-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 8.6%
•2022: 8.3%
•2023: 7.5%
•2024: 8.5%
•LTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 11.4%
•2021: 19.2%
•2022: 6.6%
•2023: 10.0%
•2024: 10.5%
•LTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUES✅
•2014: $3.09B
•2024: $9.28B
•CAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.20B
•CAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.93
•2024: $6.07
•CAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
•LTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65💵 … ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue — the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it’s justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led — Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162💵 $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSURE‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Offshore
Video
The Startup Ideas Podcast (SIP) 🧃
Free business idea (someone steal this)
ChatGPT just opened their app store to 300 million users
with 7 apps available…
This is like 2008 when flashlight apps could make $10,000 a day.
The App Store minted 1,800 millionaires.
ChatGPT is growing 10x faster than iPhone did.
Here's the play:
• Port your SaaS into ChatGPT as an app.
• Why? Because your competitor hasn't figured this out yet.
• Every category is wide open.
First app in each category will own it.
300M users already inside ChatGPT × 0.1% market share × $20/month = $72M ARR
No ads. No SEO. No begging for downloads.
You have a limited time before every VC-backed startup floods in.
So... who's shipping first
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Free business idea (someone steal this)
ChatGPT just opened their app store to 300 million users
with 7 apps available…
This is like 2008 when flashlight apps could make $10,000 a day.
The App Store minted 1,800 millionaires.
ChatGPT is growing 10x faster than iPhone did.
Here's the play:
• Port your SaaS into ChatGPT as an app.
• Why? Because your competitor hasn't figured this out yet.
• Every category is wide open.
First app in each category will own it.
300M users already inside ChatGPT × 0.1% market share × $20/month = $72M ARR
No ads. No SEO. No begging for downloads.
You have a limited time before every VC-backed startup floods in.
So... who's shipping first
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