Offshore
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ToffCap
RT @ToffCap: We're out with TMM #73, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- again activist action all over the place
- some very intriguing merger arbs
- busted companies with pretty good assets, probably going to divest some (at >EV)
- cool liquidations
- cool tender offers
- a TON of Japanese companies doing interesting stuff
- wolves
- as always, companies nearing inflection points (and the market not caring much)
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap
Enjoy!
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RT @ToffCap: We're out with TMM #73, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥
This week:
- again activist action all over the place
- some very intriguing merger arbs
- busted companies with pretty good assets, probably going to divest some (at >EV)
- cool liquidations
- cool tender offers
- a TON of Japanese companies doing interesting stuff
- wolves
- as always, companies nearing inflection points (and the market not caring much)
- ... and much more.
As always @ToffCap
Enjoy!
tweet
Offshore
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App Economy Insights
$NVDA to invest $2B in xAI.
Another “back the customer” move, turning cash into demand visibility.
NVIDIA faces a Berkshire-style challenge: surging cash ($57B as of July 2025) and too few needle-movers. https://t.co/cd9z6pImJu
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$NVDA to invest $2B in xAI.
Another “back the customer” move, turning cash into demand visibility.
NVIDIA faces a Berkshire-style challenge: surging cash ($57B as of July 2025) and too few needle-movers. https://t.co/cd9z6pImJu
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Offshore
Video
Emily
This is Grok Imagine 0.9
No upscale or tricks, just Grok Imagine, and this is just the beginning. https://t.co/Kc2dca600U
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This is Grok Imagine 0.9
No upscale or tricks, just Grok Imagine, and this is just the beginning. https://t.co/Kc2dca600U
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Capital Employed
The majority currently holding under 10% of their portfolio in cash.
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The majority currently holding under 10% of their portfolio in cash.
How much of your portfolio are you holding in cash right now? 💵
- Under 10%
- 11-20%
- Over 30%
- 21-30% tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Capital Employed (@capitalemployed) on X
How much of your portfolio are you holding in cash right now? 💵
ToffCap
Let’s go! 💪👇
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Let’s go! 💪👇
Have just posted my first blog article in a while:
"Artificial Intelligence or Authentic Stupidity".
Link to my blog is available in my bio (X's algo apparently dislikes posts with links to external social sites).
Apologies about the long wait/my inactivity.
LT tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Lyall Taylor (@LT3000Lyall) on X
Have just posted my first blog article in a while:
"Artificial Intelligence or Authentic Stupidity".
Link to my blog is available in my bio (X's algo apparently dislikes posts with links to external social sites).
Apologies about the long wait/my inactivity.…
"Artificial Intelligence or Authentic Stupidity".
Link to my blog is available in my bio (X's algo apparently dislikes posts with links to external social sites).
Apologies about the long wait/my inactivity.…
Offshore
Photo
Capital Employed
A round-up of the Q3 fund letters just published.
24 so far to get stuck into, with many more being uploaded over the coming weeks as they're released.
https://t.co/wUDSfhSG8N https://t.co/xOrFqlI07t
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A round-up of the Q3 fund letters just published.
24 so far to get stuck into, with many more being uploaded over the coming weeks as they're released.
https://t.co/wUDSfhSG8N https://t.co/xOrFqlI07t
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $ICE 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.31x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
•5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $1.00B
•Long-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 8.6%
•2022: 8.3%
•2023: 7.5%
•2024: 8.5%
•LTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 11.4%
•2021: 19.2%
•2022: 6.6%
•2023: 10.0%
•2024: 10.5%
•LTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUES✅
•2014: $3.09B
•2024: $9.28B
•CAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.20B
•CAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.93
•2024: $6.07
•CAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
•LTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65💵 … ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue — the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it’s justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led — Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162💵 $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSURE‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ICE 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.31x
•NTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
•5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $1.00B
•Long-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗
•2020: 7.8%
•2021: 8.6%
•2022: 8.3%
•2023: 7.5%
•2024: 8.5%
•LTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2020: 11.4%
•2021: 19.2%
•2022: 6.6%
•2023: 10.0%
•2024: 10.5%
•LTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUES✅
•2014: $3.09B
•2024: $9.28B
•CAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $1.34B
•2024: $4.20B
•CAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $1.93
•2024: $6.07
•CAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
•LTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75💵 … ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65💵 … ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10💵 … ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55💵 … ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, we’d have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue — the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it’s justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led — Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162💵 $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSURE‼️: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capital® and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Offshore
Video
Andrew Sather
RT @IFB_podcast: Brazil has a population of almost 213 million people and a low debt to GDP of 77.5%. So far in the first quarter (August 2025), real GDP grew 5.7% on an annualized basis form the previous quarter according to Deloitte.
How the country's payments usage is creating huge opportunities:
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RT @IFB_podcast: Brazil has a population of almost 213 million people and a low debt to GDP of 77.5%. So far in the first quarter (August 2025), real GDP grew 5.7% on an annualized basis form the previous quarter according to Deloitte.
How the country's payments usage is creating huge opportunities:
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