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ToffCap
RT @LuxOpesResearch: New one out, discussing ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡

We're in the quiet before the (earnings) storm.

๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Diagnostic Medical Systems $ALDMS
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Brunello Cucinelli $BC
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Argan SA $ARG
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Hornbach Holding $HBH
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ CCC $CCC
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Solaria $SLR
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Lhyfe $LHYFE
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท OSE Immunotherapeutics $OSE
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Arcadis $ARCAD
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Aperam $APAM

(financial KPI table will be added as of next week)
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Offshore
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David Colombo
Some deaths looks really good! https://t.co/unVcBG9hT2
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David Colombo
F#@&ing awesome!

Prompt in the comments https://t.co/ZymVnEU5Jl
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ToffCap
Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE going vertical.

The company announced even higher 2025 and 2026 targets:

- FY25 โ‚ฌ6.1bn revenues and โ‚ฌ275m ebit
- FY25 โ‚ฌ6.5bn revenues and โ‚ฌ325m ebit

Insane operational performance rebound.

Shares +270% since write-up.. 10x on the calls. https://t.co/YUItZakXfA

Every now and then thereโ€™s a company that continues to perform strongly, with the shares remaining very attractive even though they moved up quite a bit.

There's still 70-130% upside for Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE imo - and more if the supercycle really sets its.

The leaps are printing.

Some time ago I wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE:

So far the Tecnicas Reunidas thesis is progressing well, and the share price is tracking along nicely.

When I first wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas, nobody cared. Now very few care, but the market cap is back over โ‚ฌ1bn - for the first time in almost 5 years.

We're seeing steady growth and improved quality of the order book, revenues and operating margins.

This remains one of my investments with the most torque (playing this with long-dated calls).

Fast forward a few months, and Tecnicas is up ~60% ytd with the company reporting strong growth in the order backlog, revenues and earnings.

Just the most recent quarter:

- revenue reached โ‚ฌ1.3b, +30% yoy and +6% from the previous quarter. The natural gas segment was a standout performer, with revenues jumping over 60% to roughly โ‚ฌ1.0bn.
- ebit for the quarter was โ‚ฌ56m, +40% yoy.
- Tecnicas Reunidas' backlog reached a record high of โ‚ฌ14.9bn, +41% yoy. Their pipeline remains strong at over โ‚ฌ66bn, with ~โ‚ฌ15bn earmarked for decarbonization projects.

One of the reasons why stocks in this industry tends to see massive corrections, it not only because of the cyclical nature of the business but also due to the sizable and lumpy nature of projects.

Delays and cancellations can cause massive working capital swings. You need a strong balance sheet to protect yourself. So when the net cash position improves, it tends to have an exacerbated positive impact on the valuation (and the other way around).

As for the future, Tecnicas Reunidas maintained its 2025 guidance of revenues exceeding โ‚ฌ5.2bn and an ebit margin around 4.5%.

The outlook for 2026 is for more; over โ‚ฌ5.5bn revenues and an >5% ebit margin. Plus, they're planning on bringing back dividend payments in 2026. I would image that to be another boost to the shares.

With the 2025 and 2026 targets well in view, its time to take the 2028 targets seriously โ€“ 8% ebit margins.

Thatโ€™ll be ~โ‚ฌ450-500m, and roughly โ‚ฌ250-300m net income.

During the last cycle (2006-2014) the company achieved max ~โ‚ฌ150m net income. In the peak years, the company was trading at roughly 15x p/e on average.

At 15x on the 2026 guidance (which is well within reach) this would be another +70% from todayโ€™s share price.

However, the 2028 guidance implies >30% income growth p.a. over the few years after 2026. Why can't the multiple be higher in a few years?

20x on 2026e net income of let's say โ‚ฌ275m would be +130% vs today.

And this is all assuming earnings stabilize thereafter. A reminder, Iโ€™m counting on the super cycle here, meaning we could see strong growth and cash generation for a decade.

Iโ€™ve told you before why this stock has been so beaten up:

- there's not much love given poor management decisions in the past.
- we're still shell shocked from the recent horrible downcycle.
- EPC firms (like TR) constantly face cost overruns, delays, disputes with clients, as well as geopolitical and regulatory risks.
- add to that the highly competitive landscape, with numerous global and regional players vying for contracts.

Basically the same as always: "crappy company, crappy stock"

But the story is starting to change. The share price moves are getting stronger.

There will be a ton of volatility ahead, but so far so good.

Let's continue to hope they won't mess it up. - ToffCap tweet
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Investing visuals
$NBIS: the gift that keeps on giving ๐ŸŽ

Some major news, pushing new ATH's:

โ€ข $MSFT deal give access to 100,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs and is part of a total $33B in neoclouds

โ€ข Acquired ~79 acres of land in Birmingham, Alabama for $90M as part of their U.S. expansion.

๐Ÿค https://t.co/DzCz0lwS9I
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ToffCap
eGuarantee $8771 ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต has seen Ariake Capital aggressively buying shares on the open market recently, now at 7.2%.

No action yet, but the eGuarantee has show consistent and solid growth over the years, meanwhile the shares have gone nowhere.

Any views are appreciated as always https://t.co/0M8DAwcuqR
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AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG $GENI $SRAD

Regulus:

โ€œWhile comparable matched trading volumes remain relatively small compared to bookmaker handle, we believe the stock market is right to be cautious.โ€

โ€œWe do not believe that prediction market exchanges + market makers will ever be liquid enough and/or have access to sufficiently competitive insurance products to enable them to compete in SGPs that have four legs or more, or payout more than c. 5x the stakeโ€ฆ However, this competitive advantage for sportsbooks protects maybe half the current parlay market, or c. 30% of current revenueโ€ฆ The problem is that prediction markets can reasonably go for the other 60% of US sports betting revenue highly effectively: singles bets on big events and SGPs with 3 legs or fewer, especially since they tend to appeal to sharper customers.โ€

https://t.co/C5WPZAip25
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $FICO ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 42.78x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 43.00x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 2.45%
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 2.41%

As you can see, $FICO appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive about the same in earnings per share & FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $FICO is a great business

BALANCE SHEET๐Ÿ†—
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $189.05M
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $2.38B

$FICO has a strategically managed balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating, & 6x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2020: 26.9%
โ€ข2021: 33.8%
โ€ข2022: 48.9%
โ€ข2023: 52.8%
โ€ข2024: 56.9%
โ€ขLTM: 63.1%

$FICO has strong returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2019: $1.16B
โ€ข2024: $1.72B
โ€ขCAGR: 8.19%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2019: $236.37M
โ€ข2024: $624.08M
โ€ขCAGR: 21.43%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2019: $7.51
โ€ข2024: $23.74
โ€ขCAGR: 25.88%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2019 Shares Outstanding: 30.29M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 24.75M

By reducing its shares outstanding by 18.3%, $FICO increased its EPS by 22.4% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 81.7%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 45.9%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 32.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $FICO has to grow earnings at a 21.39% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just greater than the (21.39%) required growth rate:

2025E: $29.44 (24% YoY) *FY Sep

2026E: $35.86 (22% YoY)
2027E: $44.45 (24% YoY)
2028E: $54.83 (23% YoY)

$FICO has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโ€™s assume $FICO ends 2028 with $54.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

42x P/E: $2302๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~17.6% CAGR

40x P/E: $2193๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~15.8% CAGR

38x P/E: 2083๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.9% CAGR

36x P/E: $1974๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~12.1% CAGR

34x P/E: $1864๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.0% CAGR

As you can see, $FICO appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >36x earnings multiple (allowing for ~15% multiple compression)

$FICO is a high-quality business & a good consideration for investment today at $1378๐Ÿ’ต

$FICO becomes extremely attractive close to $1150๐Ÿ’ต (20% lower from todayโ€™s price) where you can reasonably assume mid teens CAGR (13% - 16%) given a 31x - 34x multiple

Given perceived headwinds & regulatory risks, $FICO stock price may be very volatile over the next few months so it would be wise to patiently piece into the position, allowing a win-win scenario whether shares fall or rise shortly after initial purchase
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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