Offshore
Video
David Colombo
I’d been pretty skeptical about Sora 2 over the past couple of days, but after finally trying it, I’m blown away. Everything I included in the prompt actually showed up — it’s incredible. Prompt in comments. https://t.co/AWA2K5DUMM
tweet
I’d been pretty skeptical about Sora 2 over the past couple of days, but after finally trying it, I’m blown away. Everything I included in the prompt actually showed up — it’s incredible. Prompt in comments. https://t.co/AWA2K5DUMM
tweet
Offshore
Photo
ToffCap
RT @LuxOpesResearch: New one out, discussing 👇👇
We're in the quiet before the (earnings) storm.
🇫🇷 Diagnostic Medical Systems $ALDMS
🇮🇹 Brunello Cucinelli $BC
🇫🇷 Argan SA $ARG
🇩🇪 Hornbach Holding $HBH
🇵🇱 CCC $CCC
🇪🇸 Solaria $SLR
🇫🇷 Lhyfe $LHYFE
🇫🇷 OSE Immunotherapeutics $OSE
🇳🇱 Arcadis $ARCAD
🇳🇱 Aperam $APAM
(financial KPI table will be added as of next week)
tweet
RT @LuxOpesResearch: New one out, discussing 👇👇
We're in the quiet before the (earnings) storm.
🇫🇷 Diagnostic Medical Systems $ALDMS
🇮🇹 Brunello Cucinelli $BC
🇫🇷 Argan SA $ARG
🇩🇪 Hornbach Holding $HBH
🇵🇱 CCC $CCC
🇪🇸 Solaria $SLR
🇫🇷 Lhyfe $LHYFE
🇫🇷 OSE Immunotherapeutics $OSE
🇳🇱 Arcadis $ARCAD
🇳🇱 Aperam $APAM
(financial KPI table will be added as of next week)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
ToffCap
Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE going vertical.
The company announced even higher 2025 and 2026 targets:
- FY25 €6.1bn revenues and €275m ebit
- FY25 €6.5bn revenues and €325m ebit
Insane operational performance rebound.
Shares +270% since write-up.. 10x on the calls. https://t.co/YUItZakXfA
Every now and then there’s a company that continues to perform strongly, with the shares remaining very attractive even though they moved up quite a bit.
There's still 70-130% upside for Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE imo - and more if the supercycle really sets its.
The leaps are printing.
Some time ago I wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE:
So far the Tecnicas Reunidas thesis is progressing well, and the share price is tracking along nicely.
When I first wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas, nobody cared. Now very few care, but the market cap is back over €1bn - for the first time in almost 5 years.
We're seeing steady growth and improved quality of the order book, revenues and operating margins.
This remains one of my investments with the most torque (playing this with long-dated calls).
Fast forward a few months, and Tecnicas is up ~60% ytd with the company reporting strong growth in the order backlog, revenues and earnings.
Just the most recent quarter:
- revenue reached €1.3b, +30% yoy and +6% from the previous quarter. The natural gas segment was a standout performer, with revenues jumping over 60% to roughly €1.0bn.
- ebit for the quarter was €56m, +40% yoy.
- Tecnicas Reunidas' backlog reached a record high of €14.9bn, +41% yoy. Their pipeline remains strong at over €66bn, with ~€15bn earmarked for decarbonization projects.
One of the reasons why stocks in this industry tends to see massive corrections, it not only because of the cyclical nature of the business but also due to the sizable and lumpy nature of projects.
Delays and cancellations can cause massive working capital swings. You need a strong balance sheet to protect yourself. So when the net cash position improves, it tends to have an exacerbated positive impact on the valuation (and the other way around).
As for the future, Tecnicas Reunidas maintained its 2025 guidance of revenues exceeding €5.2bn and an ebit margin around 4.5%.
The outlook for 2026 is for more; over €5.5bn revenues and an >5% ebit margin. Plus, they're planning on bringing back dividend payments in 2026. I would image that to be another boost to the shares.
With the 2025 and 2026 targets well in view, its time to take the 2028 targets seriously – 8% ebit margins.
That’ll be ~€450-500m, and roughly €250-300m net income.
During the last cycle (2006-2014) the company achieved max ~€150m net income. In the peak years, the company was trading at roughly 15x p/e on average.
At 15x on the 2026 guidance (which is well within reach) this would be another +70% from today’s share price.
However, the 2028 guidance implies >30% income growth p.a. over the few years after 2026. Why can't the multiple be higher in a few years?
20x on 2026e net income of let's say €275m would be +130% vs today.
And this is all assuming earnings stabilize thereafter. A reminder, I’m counting on the super cycle here, meaning we could see strong growth and cash generation for a decade.
I’ve told you before why this stock has been so beaten up:
- there's not much love given poor management decisions in the past.
- we're still shell shocked from the recent horrible downcycle.
- EPC firms (like TR) constantly face cost overruns, delays, disputes with clients, as well as geopolitical and regulatory risks.
- add to that the highly competitive landscape, with numerous global and regional players vying for contracts.
Basically the same as always: "crappy company, crappy stock"
But the story is starting to change. The share price moves are getting stronger.
There will be a ton of volatility ahead, but so far so good.
Let's continue to hope they won't mess it up. - ToffCap tweet
Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE going vertical.
The company announced even higher 2025 and 2026 targets:
- FY25 €6.1bn revenues and €275m ebit
- FY25 €6.5bn revenues and €325m ebit
Insane operational performance rebound.
Shares +270% since write-up.. 10x on the calls. https://t.co/YUItZakXfA
Every now and then there’s a company that continues to perform strongly, with the shares remaining very attractive even though they moved up quite a bit.
There's still 70-130% upside for Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE imo - and more if the supercycle really sets its.
The leaps are printing.
Some time ago I wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas $TRE:
So far the Tecnicas Reunidas thesis is progressing well, and the share price is tracking along nicely.
When I first wrote about Tecnicas Reunidas, nobody cared. Now very few care, but the market cap is back over €1bn - for the first time in almost 5 years.
We're seeing steady growth and improved quality of the order book, revenues and operating margins.
This remains one of my investments with the most torque (playing this with long-dated calls).
Fast forward a few months, and Tecnicas is up ~60% ytd with the company reporting strong growth in the order backlog, revenues and earnings.
Just the most recent quarter:
- revenue reached €1.3b, +30% yoy and +6% from the previous quarter. The natural gas segment was a standout performer, with revenues jumping over 60% to roughly €1.0bn.
- ebit for the quarter was €56m, +40% yoy.
- Tecnicas Reunidas' backlog reached a record high of €14.9bn, +41% yoy. Their pipeline remains strong at over €66bn, with ~€15bn earmarked for decarbonization projects.
One of the reasons why stocks in this industry tends to see massive corrections, it not only because of the cyclical nature of the business but also due to the sizable and lumpy nature of projects.
Delays and cancellations can cause massive working capital swings. You need a strong balance sheet to protect yourself. So when the net cash position improves, it tends to have an exacerbated positive impact on the valuation (and the other way around).
As for the future, Tecnicas Reunidas maintained its 2025 guidance of revenues exceeding €5.2bn and an ebit margin around 4.5%.
The outlook for 2026 is for more; over €5.5bn revenues and an >5% ebit margin. Plus, they're planning on bringing back dividend payments in 2026. I would image that to be another boost to the shares.
With the 2025 and 2026 targets well in view, its time to take the 2028 targets seriously – 8% ebit margins.
That’ll be ~€450-500m, and roughly €250-300m net income.
During the last cycle (2006-2014) the company achieved max ~€150m net income. In the peak years, the company was trading at roughly 15x p/e on average.
At 15x on the 2026 guidance (which is well within reach) this would be another +70% from today’s share price.
However, the 2028 guidance implies >30% income growth p.a. over the few years after 2026. Why can't the multiple be higher in a few years?
20x on 2026e net income of let's say €275m would be +130% vs today.
And this is all assuming earnings stabilize thereafter. A reminder, I’m counting on the super cycle here, meaning we could see strong growth and cash generation for a decade.
I’ve told you before why this stock has been so beaten up:
- there's not much love given poor management decisions in the past.
- we're still shell shocked from the recent horrible downcycle.
- EPC firms (like TR) constantly face cost overruns, delays, disputes with clients, as well as geopolitical and regulatory risks.
- add to that the highly competitive landscape, with numerous global and regional players vying for contracts.
Basically the same as always: "crappy company, crappy stock"
But the story is starting to change. The share price moves are getting stronger.
There will be a ton of volatility ahead, but so far so good.
Let's continue to hope they won't mess it up. - ToffCap tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
$NBIS: the gift that keeps on giving 🎁
Some major news, pushing new ATH's:
• $MSFT deal give access to 100,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs and is part of a total $33B in neoclouds
• Acquired ~79 acres of land in Birmingham, Alabama for $90M as part of their U.S. expansion.
🤝 https://t.co/DzCz0lwS9I
tweet
$NBIS: the gift that keeps on giving 🎁
Some major news, pushing new ATH's:
• $MSFT deal give access to 100,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs and is part of a total $33B in neoclouds
• Acquired ~79 acres of land in Birmingham, Alabama for $90M as part of their U.S. expansion.
🤝 https://t.co/DzCz0lwS9I
tweet
Offshore
Photo
ToffCap
eGuarantee $8771 🇯🇵 has seen Ariake Capital aggressively buying shares on the open market recently, now at 7.2%.
No action yet, but the eGuarantee has show consistent and solid growth over the years, meanwhile the shares have gone nowhere.
Any views are appreciated as always https://t.co/0M8DAwcuqR
tweet
eGuarantee $8771 🇯🇵 has seen Ariake Capital aggressively buying shares on the open market recently, now at 7.2%.
No action yet, but the eGuarantee has show consistent and solid growth over the years, meanwhile the shares have gone nowhere.
Any views are appreciated as always https://t.co/0M8DAwcuqR
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG $GENI $SRAD
Regulus:
“While comparable matched trading volumes remain relatively small compared to bookmaker handle, we believe the stock market is right to be cautious.”
“We do not believe that prediction market exchanges + market makers will ever be liquid enough and/or have access to sufficiently competitive insurance products to enable them to compete in SGPs that have four legs or more, or payout more than c. 5x the stake… However, this competitive advantage for sportsbooks protects maybe half the current parlay market, or c. 30% of current revenue… The problem is that prediction markets can reasonably go for the other 60% of US sports betting revenue highly effectively: singles bets on big events and SGPs with 3 legs or fewer, especially since they tend to appeal to sharper customers.”
https://t.co/C5WPZAip25
tweet
$FLUT $DKNG $GENI $SRAD
Regulus:
“While comparable matched trading volumes remain relatively small compared to bookmaker handle, we believe the stock market is right to be cautious.”
“We do not believe that prediction market exchanges + market makers will ever be liquid enough and/or have access to sufficiently competitive insurance products to enable them to compete in SGPs that have four legs or more, or payout more than c. 5x the stake… However, this competitive advantage for sportsbooks protects maybe half the current parlay market, or c. 30% of current revenue… The problem is that prediction markets can reasonably go for the other 60% of US sports betting revenue highly effectively: singles bets on big events and SGPs with 3 legs or fewer, especially since they tend to appeal to sharper customers.”
https://t.co/C5WPZAip25
tweet