App Economy Insights
📊 Sneak peek at the September report!

Earnings visualized from $AI to $ZS.

What caught your eye this month?

200+ companies covered this season. 👇
https://t.co/GuELTHbDFc https://t.co/OfJjYIkB8y
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AkhenOsiris
FabKno has a message for Zuck

I think META spend will look more like defense next year versus offense. Also he quite literally could lose his biz if he doesn’t figure shit out quick. - Fabricated Knowledge
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Capital Employed
30 Top stock pitches to get stuck into this week, from fund managers and some very smart private investors --->

https://t.co/BxaXwsbDvP https://t.co/B00QgNNz1o
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Umesh
I don't have access to Sora 2 yet!

Trying some amazing actions with @Kling_ai

Prompt ⤵️ https://t.co/pXWAbaOdaS
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ToffCap
Chinese retail brand Miniso $9896 HK plans to spin off its pop-culture collectibles unit and separately list it in Hong Kong.

Though certainly not fully comparable, this one could be interesting to follow given the big success (frenzy) of Labubu maker Pop Mart $9992.

I would expect the spin to move rather quickly to take as much advantage of the hype as possible. Let's see.
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Investing visuals
How $DUOL makes money🦉 https://t.co/VJy4ZVQGzi
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Umesh
A universal, FPV-style flyover prompt for any image! ⤵️ https://t.co/VWGTME5gDw
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
•5-Year Mean: 22.10x

•NTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
•5-Year Mean: 2.60%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $93.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $57.92B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•2024: 15.5%
•LTM: 15.4%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•2024: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.8%

$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2019: $280.52B
•2024: $637.96B
•CAGR: 17.85%

FREE CASH FLOW🆗(✅)
•2019: $21.65B
•2024: $32.88B
•CAGR: 8.71%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $1.15
•2024: $5.53
•CAGR: 36.90%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share

We’re using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:

2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

17x P/OCF: $338.24💵 … ~21% CAGR

16x P/OCF: $318.34💵 … ~18% CAGR

15x P/OCF: $298.45💵 … ~14% CAGR

14x P/OCF: $278.55💵 … ~11% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple that’s justified given its growth rate & below its historical average

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:

☁️AWS revenue: $116.38B
📈Ads revenue: $61.23B

Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue … with ~37% Operating Income Margin

Today at $219💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Yellowbrick Investing
The best move for paid writers is more frequent updates on the stocks you own and are looking at to increase frequency without lowering pitch quality.

I’d be *super* interested in someone making all pitches free but putting portfolio updates behind a paywall

I’ve been writing for 7 years (1-2 on Substack), and just started charging a subscription a few months ago.

I’ve noticed that outside of the first movers (long-time Substack writers who have been charging for a long time) investing Substacks are hard to grow because of the intersection of competing demands of audience economics and idea scarcity.

Substack seems to reward frequency. Consistent publishing means more impressions and faster subscriber growth. Casual readers want regular content, even if ideas / posts are lower quality. Volume is rewarded, not depth.

Really good investment ideas are rare, and building real conviction takes time. A great write up needs a good idea and in my view, weeks of due diligence to be credible. Frequent ideas per week/month forces either:

Dilution of quality / standards, or coverage of non-ideas (market commentary, portfolio updates, book notes, etc.) to stay active.

This is why many investing Substacks fall into one of two buckets:

High frequency, low depth: more popular, faster subscriber growth, but little lasting edge.

Low frequency, high depth: more respected among serious investors, slower growth, but a more defensible niche long-term.

The business model of a newsletter (which I don’t write) wants one thing, but the craft of investing / research wants another. It would be impossible to generate 52 differentiated, high-quality stock ideas per year. - Adam Wilk
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Cleo Fields just filed over a dozen new stock trades.

He bought more stock in Opendoor, $OPEN.

The stock has risen 148% since he first bought in back in July.

Full trade list up on Quiver.
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