Investing visuals
ROAST my top positions! 🔥

What would you add, cut, or size differently?
Be brutally honest, I can take it.

More context & something new I’m launching in the thread below! 🧵👇
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Umesh
Tabletop game card prompt! https://t.co/CLc1FJfr28

Turn yourself into a tabletop game card with Nano Banana in Adobe Firefly

Different games and cards types with prompts 👇

prompt: Create hyper-detailed fantasy game card portrait of a dryad forest guardian, styled like a RPG game card. The character has bark-textured skin, glowing green eyes, and flower-crowned hair, wearing vine-woven armor, posed against a glowing enchanted grove. The card includes floral borders and leaf patterns and RPG-style stats. Name is Kris. Warlock. - Kris Kashtanova
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AkhenOsiris
TLDR;

"When they asked me what does Upstart do, I should have said 'I don't know'"

Most people are opinionated. They think they know the answers to everything. But in reality, their opinions are fueled not by true confidence—but by ego and insecurity. Ironically, this often makes them appear very confident on the surface.

But here’s the truth: most people are not successful because they lack the most important ingredient of growth—humility. They don’t have the willingness to admit they might be wrong or the openness to learn from someone better.

Ask yourself these questions:

If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?

Why haven’t you invented something that changes people’s lives?

Why don’t people follow you, respect you, or look to you for guidance?

Why aren’t you happy, fulfilled, or living with purpose?

Why haven’t you achieved something truly great?

Why don't you have the most amazing life?

The answer is simple: you’re not that smart. And until you admit that, you’ll never become that smart. Your mind is already full. Your cup is overflowingwith little room for new knowledge. You’re uncoachable.

The first step to becoming great is to admit that you suck.
The second step is to believe that you could be great.
The third step is to find somebody who is great and willing to teach you.
The fourth step is to shut your mouth—and listen.

That’s the formula. Everything else comes after.

My greatest personal strength and the secret to my success is my willingness to truly be a lifelong student and to never stop seeking the truth from those who know more than me. I love learning, and I never want to be someone who doesn't need to learn. - Mark Minervini
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AkhenOsiris
God bless this 996 movement...please keep working so I don't have to 😂

Remote Work Is Over… ‘996 Work Culture’ Spreads Across U.S. Startups

“If you don’t want to work 70 hours a week, don’t apply to our company.”

Last month, AI startup Rilla posted this condition in a job advertisement for AI engineers on its website. In the U.S., the standard workweek requiring overtime pay is 40 hours. Rilla’s demand nearly doubles that.

San Francisco–based startup Weekday AI also wrote in its software engineer job posting: “If you don’t want to work six days a week (only Sunday off), you’re not a fit for this role. We’re looking for applicants who enjoy solving difficult problems with patience.” And they’re not alone. On LinkedIn and job sites, postings that require six-day schedules or 70+ hour workweeks at U.S. startups are increasingly easy to find.

Recently, U.S. startups have begun adopting the so-called “996” high-intensity work culture: working 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week, a model popularized in China. Once known for perks like flexible hours, remote work options, unlimited paid leave, and free-spirited office environments meant to boost creativity, American startups are now moving in the opposite direction.

◇ No Drinking, No Sleep, No Leisure

“We are adopting the 996 schedule.” Earlier this year, Mercor CEO Brendan Puddy declared on X (formerly Twitter) that his AI startup would embrace 996. With AI competition intensifying, many startups believe “now is the make-or-break moment”, and are embracing extreme work intensity. The backdrop is a sense of urgency: whoever wins today’s “AI war” will claim tomorrow’s rewards.

Local outlet San Francisco Standard reported: “Many who see the AI boom as the greatest technological transformation of their lifetime are living every day in fierce competition to protect market share. They fear rivals across the street—or in China—will work harder and dominate the market.”

The Wall Street Journal also noted: “For AI startup founders, there is no drinking, no sleep, no leisure. Twenty-somethings flocking to San Francisco in pursuit of building the next trillion-dollar company are giving up everything except their laptops.”

Competition with China further fuels this culture. IT media outlet Wired wrote: “U.S. AI firms are borrowing not just the name but the exact working hours of 996 to survive against Chinese rivals.”

◇ Spreading Beyond Silicon Valley

This high-intensity culture isn’t limited to AI startups. Venture capital firm Index Ventures partner Martin Mignot posted on LinkedIn: “In Silicon Valley, China’s 996 system is becoming the new startup standard,” adding that this trend is spreading to New York and even Europe.

Biotech startup LatchBio, for example, recently advertised jobs saying: “We work six days a week (Monday through Saturday),” and pitched as a perk that employees receive “more than 12 meals a week” provided by the company.

There are concerns that this culture could spread into mainstream corporate America. Forbes wrote: “This high-intensity work culture is gradually spreading across U.S. workplaces in general,” adding that advances in AI are blurring boundaries between work and personal time, leading employers to expect tasks to be completed outside regular hours.

Forbes pointed to Wall Street banks, management consultancies, and major law firms as industries likely to adopt 70-hour workweeks as a new norm. In February, Google co-founder Sergey Brin also argued that “a 60-hour week is the optimal level for productivity.”

◇ China Moves in the Opposite Direction

Meanwhile, in China—where the 996 culture began—work intensity is easing. Rising health problems linked to overwork prompted China’s Supreme People’s Court to declare 996 illegal in 2021.

At the National People’s Congress this March, Beijing pledged “comprehensive measures to eliminate hamster-wheel-like excessive competition.” State-run Global Times reported that some Chinese companies are[...]

now shifting away from long-hours workplace culture. - Jukan tweet

Umesh
RT @Shinebynous: Too short for modeling? Not anymore—AI made me my own star!

Back in the day, I heard it nonstop: "You're too short for a modeling career." Even years later, mocking up my designs felt like hitting the same wall.

But AI flipped the script!

With Adobe Firefly Boards, I whip up stunning product mock-ups for my coffee mugs, hoodies, or wall art in just minutes.

And thanks to Gemini 2.5 (Nano Banana), I can even feature my younger self as the model in my creations—turning "impossible" into "I did that!"

What doors were once closed? I kicked 'em open myself.

Create your own mock-ups in minutes — try Adobe Firefly Boards today and see what you can bring to life.

This project is part of a paid partnership with Adobe Firefly.
I'm an official Adobe Firefly Brand Ambassador, and this content is sponsored.
#AdobeFireflyAmbassadors #Ad #FireflyPartnerModels

1/9
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $TDG 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 32.04x
•3-Year Mean: 33.08x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.28%
•3-Year Mean: 3.20%

As you can see, $TDG appears to be trading near fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TDG is an good business

BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short Term Inv: $2.81B
•Long-Term Debt: $24.00B

$TDG has an ok balance sheet & 1.59x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio (though small, its highest ratio in the past 5 years)

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗➡️✅
•2021: 9.5%
•2022: 13.2%
•2023: 15.9%
•2024: 18.5%
•LTM: 19.2%

•$TDG is a serial acquirer (which usually leads to a lower ROIC) and yet still maintains a fairly attractive ROIC

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•Negative ROE due to heavy use of debt

$TDG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $2.37B
•2024: $7.94B
•CAGR: 12.85%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $0.51B
•2024: $1.88B
•CAGR: 13.93%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $7.76
•2024: $33.99
•CAGR: 14.04%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 55.60M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 57.80M

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 59.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 45.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.7%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & 3% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TDG has to grow earnings at a 16.02% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.02%) required growth rate:

2025E: $36.96 (8.7% YoY) *FY Dec

2026E: $41.92 (13.4% YoY)
2027E: $48.07 (14.7% YoY)

$TDG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so let’s assume $TDG ends 2027 with $48.07 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

33x P/E: $1586💵 … ~10.6% CAGR

32x P/E: 1538💵 … ~8.9% CAGR

31x P/E: $1490💵 … ~7.2% CAGR

30x P/E: 1442💵 … ~5.5% CAGR

29x P/E: $1394💵 … ~3.7% CAGR

28x P/E: 1345💵 … ~1.9% CAGR

As you can see, $TDG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >33x EPS (near its 3-year mean) — however, this leaves us with little margin of safety

On the other hand, current estimates may not accurately reflect future acquisitions, price increases, etc that could increase future growth expectations (a crucial part of $TDG long-term growth track record)

Today at $1295💵 $TDG appears to be a fair consideration for investment with little margin of safety

I consider $TDG a strong consideration for investment closer to $1150💵 (11% below today’s price, 28.45x NTM Est) where I could reasonably expect a ~12% CAGR while relying on a 30x end multiple

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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