AkhenOsiris
Polymarket just announced markets for EPS earnings season.
This is interesting for a few reasons. Polymarket is taking the BBG consensus as "the number" and the Yes/No question is if the company will beat the number.
Fair to say that stocks tend to move more on guidance than past qtr results. Also, EPS is not even the driving metric for many companies stock moves.
Which leads me to the long understood game in stock markets of beating consensus:
Over the past 10 years, S&P 500 companies have beaten quarterly EPS estimates approximately 74% of the time on average. This figure aligns with other analyses, such as a 74% 10-year average cited in mid-2024. For context, the 5-year average is slightly higher at around 77%, reflecting stronger beat rates in more recent periods. Individual quarters can vary significantly—for instance, Q2 2025 saw a 77% beat rate.
Betting "Yes" is the obvious play here. Since all you are betting on is that EPS number (NOT the stock price reaction).
This would be a lot harder (and potentially more valuable as it would align with buyside ests) if the line moved, as they do on sportsbooks when action is heavily skewed.
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Polymarket just announced markets for EPS earnings season.
This is interesting for a few reasons. Polymarket is taking the BBG consensus as "the number" and the Yes/No question is if the company will beat the number.
Fair to say that stocks tend to move more on guidance than past qtr results. Also, EPS is not even the driving metric for many companies stock moves.
Which leads me to the long understood game in stock markets of beating consensus:
Over the past 10 years, S&P 500 companies have beaten quarterly EPS estimates approximately 74% of the time on average. This figure aligns with other analyses, such as a 74% 10-year average cited in mid-2024. For context, the 5-year average is slightly higher at around 77%, reflecting stronger beat rates in more recent periods. Individual quarters can vary significantly—for instance, Q2 2025 saw a 77% beat rate.
Betting "Yes" is the obvious play here. Since all you are betting on is that EPS number (NOT the stock price reaction).
This would be a lot harder (and potentially more valuable as it would align with buyside ests) if the line moved, as they do on sportsbooks when action is heavily skewed.
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AkhenOsiris
Need prediction markets for shit like this
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Need prediction markets for shit like this
So wday cuts numbers at analyst day this week? tweet
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@TheParadoxIntel - $GPRO
@Szew_invest (stock exchange overviews) - $TASE.TA, $JSEJF, $S68.SI, $X.TO, $NDAQ, $LSEG.L, $A, $0388.HK, $ENX.PA, $ICE, $8697.T, $BOLSAA.MX, $B3SA3.SA, $DBOEY, $GPW.WA
@PythiaR - $SNPS
@BuffDawgg - $FILA.MI https://t.co/LuGcuh4bzu
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Added 59 new write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@TheParadoxIntel - $GPRO
@Szew_invest (stock exchange overviews) - $TASE.TA, $JSEJF, $S68.SI, $X.TO, $NDAQ, $LSEG.L, $A, $0388.HK, $ENX.PA, $ICE, $8697.T, $BOLSAA.MX, $B3SA3.SA, $DBOEY, $GPW.WA
@PythiaR - $SNPS
@BuffDawgg - $FILA.MI https://t.co/LuGcuh4bzu
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@Biotenic - $RPTX
@uv_shares - $SDR.L
@LuxOpesResearch (quick overviews) - $SEFER.PA, $SCHP.PA, $RUI.PA, $CIRSA.MC, $JCQ.PA, $ALLAN.PA, $ALAFY.PA, $ALPWG.PA, $ITX.MC, $CRI.PA, $RED.MC
@SnowCapResearch - $FTAI (short) https://t.co/mBOg7JFand
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Added 59 new write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@Biotenic - $RPTX
@uv_shares - $SDR.L
@LuxOpesResearch (quick overviews) - $SEFER.PA, $SCHP.PA, $RUI.PA, $CIRSA.MC, $JCQ.PA, $ALLAN.PA, $ALAFY.PA, $ALPWG.PA, $ITX.MC, $CRI.PA, $RED.MC
@SnowCapResearch - $FTAI (short) https://t.co/mBOg7JFand
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Offshore
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Offshore
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 3):
@BlokeOak57182 - $CAML.L, $DEC (update)
@accrued_int - $APP (update)
@wallstengine (analyst) - $AMZN
@taobanker - $NRP
@rebound_capital - $GOOG
@GaliciaInvestor - $NTDOY
@Wiseman_Cap (analyst) - $GTLB https://t.co/iPACnr3MKd
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Added 59 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 3):
@BlokeOak57182 - $CAML.L, $DEC (update)
@accrued_int - $APP (update)
@wallstengine (analyst) - $AMZN
@taobanker - $NRP
@rebound_capital - $GOOG
@GaliciaInvestor - $NTDOY
@Wiseman_Cap (analyst) - $GTLB https://t.co/iPACnr3MKd
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