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soken
RT @litteralyme0_: “Finally now that I’m 23 and done with college my life can finally begin” https://t.co/fsM79swLT0
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RT @litteralyme0_: “Finally now that I’m 23 and done with college my life can finally begin” https://t.co/fsM79swLT0
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
•5-Year Mean: 37.80x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
•5-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.32B
$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️🆗
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
•LTM: 2.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️🆗
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
•LTM: 6.5%
$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)
REVENUES✅
•2019: $3.36B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 12.77%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $602.38M
•2024: $1.28B
•CAGR: 16.34%
*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $4.56
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 23.68%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)
$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $645.44💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $625.27💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
30x P/E: $605.10💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $584.93💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $564.76💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $544.59💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $350💵 I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜�[...]
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
•5-Year Mean: 37.80x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
•5-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.32B
$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️🆗
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
•LTM: 2.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️🆗
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
•LTM: 6.5%
$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)
REVENUES✅
•2019: $3.36B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 12.77%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $602.38M
•2024: $1.28B
•CAGR: 16.34%
*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $4.56
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 23.68%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)
$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $645.44💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $625.27💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
30x P/E: $605.10💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $584.93💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $564.76💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $544.59💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $350💵 I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜�[...]
Offshore
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ToffCap
Another solid one from LO. This saves so much time
(and there's always a company I had no idea about)
tweet
Another solid one from LO. This saves so much time
(and there's always a company I had no idea about)
And we're already out with a new one 💪
Look at all them 🇫🇷 companies 🧐
🇪🇸 Inditex $ITX
🇫🇷 Lanson-BCC $ALLAN
🇫🇷 Prodways Group $ALPWG
🇫🇷 Rubis $RUI
🇪🇸 Redeia $RED
🇪🇸 Cirsa Enterprises $CIRSA
🇫🇷 Afyren $ALAFY
🇫🇷 Séché Environnement $SCHP
🇫🇷 Serge Ferrari $SEFER
🇫🇷 Chargeurs $CRI
🇫🇷 Jacquet Metals $JCQ
Link in bio! tweet
Offshore
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Gainify
Over the last 10 quarters revenue growth trajectories couldn’t be more different:
NVIDIA $NVDA: revenue rocketed from ~$7B in Q1’23 ➡️ $46B+ in Q2’25.
Oracle $ORCL: revenue inched from ~$12B in Q1’23 ➡️ ~$15B in Q2’25.
Question is can Oracle break out from here? https://t.co/fEVDnCd4sW
tweet
Over the last 10 quarters revenue growth trajectories couldn’t be more different:
NVIDIA $NVDA: revenue rocketed from ~$7B in Q1’23 ➡️ $46B+ in Q2’25.
Oracle $ORCL: revenue inched from ~$12B in Q1’23 ➡️ ~$15B in Q2’25.
Question is can Oracle break out from here? https://t.co/fEVDnCd4sW
tweet
Offshore
Video
Umesh
Lucid Origin + nano-banana is so cool!
An exploration of Lucid Origin images edited with nano-banana on @LeonardoAi_ and animated with Motion 2.0 and Veo 3 🧵
1. Floating in the sky. https://t.co/5Y3vI3KjG2
tweet
Lucid Origin + nano-banana is so cool!
An exploration of Lucid Origin images edited with nano-banana on @LeonardoAi_ and animated with Motion 2.0 and Veo 3 🧵
1. Floating in the sky. https://t.co/5Y3vI3KjG2
tweet