Yellowbrick Investing
$NBIS

Vibe Valuation 101: $NBIS
*This is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice*

First, this name has very little coverage (green flag for me). Second, this deal is massive. I expect all the idio L/S guys to pick it up now (yellow flag). THESE are the big opportunities in the market beyond a day 1 move. You are never late.

Its easy to say "valuation doesn't matter in this environment so why do the work", that's weak sauce and amateur hour. I am NOT close to the name and have never talked to mgmt, what I get wrong... point it out & we can vibe together.

What are the 4 key facts of this deal? From my agent Stanley:
- The agreement has a five-year term and provides Microsoft access to dedicated GPU infrastructure
-Deployment will roll out in tranches during 2025 and 2026.
-Total contract value is about $17.4 billion through 2031, with options that could raise it to about $19.4 billion if Microsoft acquires additional services/capacity.
-If Nebius misses agreed delivery dates for a GPU tranche and can’t provide alternative capacity after a grace period, Microsoft may terminate that GPU Service; either party can also terminate for cause (e.g., unremedied material breach) or certain insolvency events (with a Chapter 11 reorganization carve-out).

Here is 3 diff ways to look at it:

1. First: What is the incremental impact to GM $'s? +$8.5bn?(on track for ~$360m this year) is a first guess... more work talking to mgmt + sensitivity tables would be next to get more conviction on pace of growth + expense schedule (I have no idea)

2. Break into 2 segments and EV/Sales (quick and dirty for day 1-5 move). Core business + MSFT Business now. What multiple do people on the 2 businesses vs peers? That's the art

3. Hard: If I had more time I would try to figure out via old school primary research (next 12-18 month move)
- Full MSA + GPU Services SOWs; effective dates, tranche schedule (MW/GPU counts), energization and acceptance milestones
- Pricing schedule by segment: GPU/hr (by SKU), storage GB/mo, network egress, managed services; indexation/escalators; FX currency
- Commitments: take or pay minimums, burst capacity rules, overage pricing, prepayments/deposits
- SLA & credit schedule, service credits’ cash vs. non-cash treatment
- Change orders / expansion options, volume caps, MFN/exclusivity/MFN clauses
-EPC contracts, site/land, shell/core/fit out budgets, electrical & mechanical line items, network/optics, racks, software licenses
-Payment milestones, vendor prepayments, warranties, liquidated damages
-IDC (interest during construction) methodology, contingency and escalation
-Termination/penalty mechanics (grace periods, cure rights), make-good obligations
-Pass-throughs (e.g., power costs, carbon fees) and who bears curtailment risk

* I would have the ANALYST DO A DETAILED REV BUILD

** MY FOCUS would be on the risks
- Delivery/energization slippage per tranche
- Utilization ramp distributions (P95/P50/P5)
- Power-price/PUE stochastic paths (hedge effectiveness)
- SLA credit frequency/severity
- Contractual option events: expansions, terminations, make-goods

I would compare a Reverse DCF of current prices to our forward expectations. The wider those are, the more I would own. The more narrow those are, the less I would own from a risk standpoint. - Jared L Kubin
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Gainify
RT @BourbonCap: Holdings Q2 2025

TransDigm Group Incorporated $TDG is the largest position, representing over 27% of their portfolio, and the company is currently having a correction.

The stock has grown at 20% per year, delivering over 490% returns in 10 years, Transdigm hasn’t had a single red year since 2008

The second largest position is Amazon $AMZN, one of the largest e-commerce companies in the world, which is expected to generate $1 trillion in revenue in the coming years.

The third largest position is Microsoft $MSFT, the largest software company in the world, which remains one of the most difficult companies to replace to this day.

Then there are the 'twins,' Visa $V and Mastercard $MA, arguably among the best businesses ever created, still processing over 50% of global transactions to this day.

They sold most of their stakes in Google and FICO last quarter but still hold small positions. Both companies continue to have significant potential.

Few holdings but all of them have potencial for the next 10 years

@gainify_io It's a great place to find portfolios with few holdings.
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Evan
VistaShares’ new $ACKY ETF begins trading today ⬇️

$ACKY ETF LAUNCHES TODAY!

VistaShares Adds to Income ETF Suite with Launch of Target 15™ ACKtivist Income ETF

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*Not affiliate with Bill Ackman or Pershing Square Capital - VistaShares
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Yellowbrick Investing
The worst thing I've ever seen https://t.co/Z6F7UgGQl0
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Aadit Sheth
This is literally the only book you need to master prompt engineering for LLMs https://t.co/C7ebZuYqRx
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Evan
We have 2 events today I’m watching for

- 1PM ET Apple iPhone unveil event
- 8:30PM ET Robinhood active trader event

Tuesday and Wednesday:

NEW IPHONES ARE COMING WATCH OUT FOR THE APPLE EVENT (Keynote is at 1PM ET)

ALSO WATCH OUT FOR THIS ON TUESDAY:

- Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev will be giving the keynote for HOOD's active trader events at 8:30PM ET on Tuesday https://t.co/XKjYSUhOmn - Evan
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Evan
🇺🇸 2025 PRELIMINARY BENCHMARK PAYROLLS REVISION SUBTRACTS 911K JOBS
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Aadit Sheth
RT @neatprompts: This guy literally shared a step-by-step formula for a 100x return https://t.co/5gQDZRagvi
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Quiver Quantitative
We sounded the alarm when multiple members of Congress bought the dip in UnitedHealth stock.

$UNH has now risen over 30% since.

Up another 3% today. https://t.co/BZc9ua8jAX
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