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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.07x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.74%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.82%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly above fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
CASH FROM OPERATIONSโ
โข2014: $1.51B
โข2024: $4.61B
โขCAGR: 11.81%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at a 12.04% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than the (12.04%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.97 (14.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.72 (10.7% YoY)
2027E: $8.59 (11.3% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (11.2% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $248.30๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~8.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~6.9% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~25x earnings for $ICE to have good double digit CAGR potential
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
While $ICE has traded for an average 22.31x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it should normally trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
Today at $174๐ต $ICE appears to be a fair consideration for investment
I consider $ICE a stronger consideration closer to $160๐ต where I can potentially expect 11% CAGR assuming a more conservative 23x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.07x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.74%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.82%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly above fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
CASH FROM OPERATIONSโ
โข2014: $1.51B
โข2024: $4.61B
โขCAGR: 11.81%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~2% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at a 12.04% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be just more than the (12.04%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.97 (14.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.72 (10.7% YoY)
2027E: $8.59 (11.3% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (11.2% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
26x P/E: $248.30๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~8.3% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~6.9% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~25x earnings for $ICE to have good double digit CAGR potential
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
While $ICE has traded for an average 22.31x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe it should normally trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
Today at $174๐ต $ICE appears to be a fair consideration for investment
I consider $ICE a stronger consideration closer to $160๐ต where I can potentially expect 11% CAGR assuming a more conservative 23x end multiple in 2028
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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Offshore
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Evan
RT @TomLeeTracker: Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 387,325 more shares of $BMNR yesterday https://t.co/PfVav3i75E
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RT @TomLeeTracker: Cathie Wood and Ark Invest bought 387,325 more shares of $BMNR yesterday https://t.co/PfVav3i75E
Here's every move Cathie Wood and Ark Invest made in the stock market yesterday 9/5 https://t.co/wyYZTNpeUM tweet
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Evan
US companies have now announced more than $1 Trillion worth of new stock buyback plans so far in 2025
Here are the companies that have announced the biggest plans
๐ฅ Apple $100 Billion
๐ฅ Google $70 Billion
๐ฅ Nvidia $60 Billion https://t.co/sgbpQSYOuX
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US companies have now announced more than $1 Trillion worth of new stock buyback plans so far in 2025
Here are the companies that have announced the biggest plans
๐ฅ Apple $100 Billion
๐ฅ Google $70 Billion
๐ฅ Nvidia $60 Billion https://t.co/sgbpQSYOuX
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Offshore
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Aadit Sheth
This guy literally drops the coldest truth about distraction youโll ever hear https://t.co/Yo8Up0LPYw
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This guy literally drops the coldest truth about distraction youโll ever hear https://t.co/Yo8Up0LPYw
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Offshore
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Evan
Here's what the S&P 500 heat map looks like when you go to the 10 year time frame ๐ข
The S&P 500 index closed trading at 1,921.22 on Friday September 4th, 2015 ... the index closed trading yesterday at 6,481.50
If you had invested $10,000 into the S&P 500 10 years ago and held to today you'd currently have
$33,736.4
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Here's what the S&P 500 heat map looks like when you go to the 10 year time frame ๐ข
The S&P 500 index closed trading at 1,921.22 on Friday September 4th, 2015 ... the index closed trading yesterday at 6,481.50
If you had invested $10,000 into the S&P 500 10 years ago and held to today you'd currently have
$33,736.4
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Iqra Saifi
Veo- 3 fast on @haimeta_ai ๐ฅ
An awe-inspiring, high-angle drone shot opens, looking down slightly ahead of a majestic, three-masted wooden pirate ship as it slowly navigates a narrow, emerald-green tropical river. The camera subtly tracks backward, maintaining its perspective, as the ship cuts a gentle, foamy wake through the impossibly clear water. On either side, the riverbanks explode with dense, vibrant, hyper-realistic jungle foliage: colossal palm fronds, cascading vines, and exotic flowering plants, all rendered with breathtaking detail, individual leaves and textures visible.
An awe-inspiring, high-angle drone shot opens, looking down slightly ahead of a majestic, three-masted wooden pirate ship as it slowly navigates a narrow, emerald-green tropical river. The camera subtly tracks backward, maintaining its perspective, as the ship cuts a gentle, foamy wake through the impossibly clear water. On either side, the riverbanks explode with dense, vibrant, hyper-realistic jungle foliage: colossal palm fronds, cascading vines, and exotic flowering plants, all rendered with breathtaking detail, individual leaves and textures visible.
The sunlight, diffused by the dense canopy, creates dappled light and shadow on the water and the ship's weathered sails, which are mostly furled but show subtle wear. In the distance, towering, mist-shrouded jungle mountains rise dramatically, adding to the sense of unexplored wilderness. The air is thick with humidity, almost visible, and a gentle haze softens the distant peaks. Every detail is meticulously captured: the weathered timber of the ship's hull, the intricate rigging, the glistening water droplets on the leaves, and the reflections of the jungle on the water's surface.
The soundscape is rich and immersive: the gentle lapping of water against the ship's hull, the distant calls of unseen exotic birds and monkeys, the subtle creak of the ship's timbers, and the soft rush of water from the bow, all blending to create a vivid sense of discovery and remote tropical adventure.
The soundscape is rich and immersive: the gentle lapping of water against the ship's hull, the distant calls of unseen exotic birds and monkeys, the subtle creak of the ship's timbers, and the soft rush of water from the bow, all blending to create a vivid sense of discovery and remote tropical adventure.
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Veo- 3 fast on @haimeta_ai ๐ฅ
An awe-inspiring, high-angle drone shot opens, looking down slightly ahead of a majestic, three-masted wooden pirate ship as it slowly navigates a narrow, emerald-green tropical river. The camera subtly tracks backward, maintaining its perspective, as the ship cuts a gentle, foamy wake through the impossibly clear water. On either side, the riverbanks explode with dense, vibrant, hyper-realistic jungle foliage: colossal palm fronds, cascading vines, and exotic flowering plants, all rendered with breathtaking detail, individual leaves and textures visible.
An awe-inspiring, high-angle drone shot opens, looking down slightly ahead of a majestic, three-masted wooden pirate ship as it slowly navigates a narrow, emerald-green tropical river. The camera subtly tracks backward, maintaining its perspective, as the ship cuts a gentle, foamy wake through the impossibly clear water. On either side, the riverbanks explode with dense, vibrant, hyper-realistic jungle foliage: colossal palm fronds, cascading vines, and exotic flowering plants, all rendered with breathtaking detail, individual leaves and textures visible.
The sunlight, diffused by the dense canopy, creates dappled light and shadow on the water and the ship's weathered sails, which are mostly furled but show subtle wear. In the distance, towering, mist-shrouded jungle mountains rise dramatically, adding to the sense of unexplored wilderness. The air is thick with humidity, almost visible, and a gentle haze softens the distant peaks. Every detail is meticulously captured: the weathered timber of the ship's hull, the intricate rigging, the glistening water droplets on the leaves, and the reflections of the jungle on the water's surface.
The soundscape is rich and immersive: the gentle lapping of water against the ship's hull, the distant calls of unseen exotic birds and monkeys, the subtle creak of the ship's timbers, and the soft rush of water from the bow, all blending to create a vivid sense of discovery and remote tropical adventure.
The soundscape is rich and immersive: the gentle lapping of water against the ship's hull, the distant calls of unseen exotic birds and monkeys, the subtle creak of the ship's timbers, and the soft rush of water from the bow, all blending to create a vivid sense of discovery and remote tropical adventure.
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