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White Druski spitting hill billy you ainโt lost is you /// reaction meme https://t.co/3dvBdRvz2U
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White Druski spitting hill billy you ainโt lost is you /// reaction meme https://t.co/3dvBdRvz2U
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.03x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.93%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.17%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value on an earnings basis
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $95.15B
โขLong-Term Debt: $23.61B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 26.9%
โข2024: 32.3%
โขLTM: 30.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โข2024: 32.9%
โขLTM: 34.8%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $66.00B
โข2024: $350.02B
โขCAGR: 18.16%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $12.01B
โข2024: $72.76B
โขCAGR: 19.73%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.28
โข2024: $8.04
โขCAGR: 20.17%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.31B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~12.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~14.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 58.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.2%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 31.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.52% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.52%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.93 (23.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $10.65 (7.2% YoY)
2027E: $12.00 (12.6% YoY)
2028E: $13.97 (16.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2028 with $13.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $321.31๐ต โฆ ~14.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $307.34๐ต โฆ ~12.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $293.37๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $279.40๐ต โฆ ~9.4% CAGR
19x P/E: $265.43๐ต โฆ ~7.8% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean & a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
At >23x, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x - ~25x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $209๐ต $GOOG appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with a much smaller margin of safety compared to the last several months
Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead, with the potential for continued margin expansion serving as an additional tailwind
$GOOGL
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.03x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.93%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.17%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value on an earnings basis
Going forward, investors can receive ~10% MORE in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $95.15B
โขLong-Term Debt: $23.61B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 332x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 26.9%
โข2024: 32.3%
โขLTM: 30.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โข2024: 32.9%
โขLTM: 34.8%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $66.00B
โข2024: $350.02B
โขCAGR: 18.16%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $12.01B
โข2024: $72.76B
โขCAGR: 19.73%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.28
โข2024: $8.04
โขCAGR: 20.17%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.31B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~12.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~14.3% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 58.2%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.2%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 31.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~10% MORE in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.52% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.52%) required growth rate:
2025E: $9.93 (23.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $10.65 (7.2% YoY)
2027E: $12.00 (12.6% YoY)
2028E: $13.97 (16.4% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $GOOG ends 2028 with $13.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $321.31๐ต โฆ ~14.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $307.34๐ต โฆ ~12.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $293.37๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $279.40๐ต โฆ ~9.4% CAGR
19x P/E: $265.43๐ต โฆ ~7.8% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >21x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean & a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat)
At >23x, $GOOG has aggressive CAGR potential & itโs not unreasonable for the business to even trade for ~23x - ~25x (given its growth rate, moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $209๐ต $GOOG appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with a much smaller margin of safety compared to the last several months
Between cloud โ๏ธ , AI ๐ค , quantum computing โ๏ธ, $GOOG has a strong growth runway ahead, with the potential for continued margin expansion serving as an additional tailwind
$GOOGL
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. tweet
Offshore
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Simplifying Stocks, CPA
Wifey who is 50% in $GOOGL https://t.co/q07ptHUgCA
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Wifey who is 50% in $GOOGL https://t.co/q07ptHUgCA
BREAKING โ ๏ธ
JUDGE RULES GOOGLE NOT REQUIRED TO END PAYMENTS TO APPLE AND OTHER PARTNERS FOR PRELOADING GOOGLE PRODUCTS.
GOOGLE NOT REQUIRED TO SELL CHROME IN COURT ANTITRUST RULING.
JUDGE RULES GOOGLE WILL NOT HAVE TO SELL OFF THE ANDROID OPERATING SYSTEM.
$GOOGL +8% https://t.co/77Wnprff2I - Simplifying Stocks, CPAtweet
Offshore
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Evan
RT @StockMKTNewz: STARBUCKS $SBUX TO LAUNCH PROTEIN-PACKED COLD FOAM, LATTES LATER THIS MONTH
"Customers who add Starbucksโ protein cold foam to their grande beverages can expect about 19 to 26 grams of protein, while the chainโs grande-sized protein latte delivers 27 to 36 grams of protein" - CNBC
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RT @StockMKTNewz: STARBUCKS $SBUX TO LAUNCH PROTEIN-PACKED COLD FOAM, LATTES LATER THIS MONTH
"Customers who add Starbucksโ protein cold foam to their grande beverages can expect about 19 to 26 grams of protein, while the chainโs grande-sized protein latte delivers 27 to 36 grams of protein" - CNBC
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Aadit Sheth
This guy literally proves you donโt need coding to build apps anymore
https://t.co/U7h7jPG3QM
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This guy literally proves you donโt need coding to build apps anymore
https://t.co/U7h7jPG3QM
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Offshore
Video
Iqra Saifi
Veo-3 fast on Flow ๐ค
"High-Fashion Music Video",
"duration_seconds": 8,
"parameters": {
"style": "hyper-realistic, cinematic, high-fashion music video, alluring, sensual, vibrant, slick",
"camera": {
"type": "Arri Alexa LF with Signature Prime lens",
"lens": "40mm T1.8",
"movement": "A fluid Steadicam shot that orbits the model, starting with a close-up on her face and pulling back to reveal her full body and dance moves. It includes a slow, subtle push-in towards the end to heighten intimacy.",
"focus": "Shallow depth of field, keeping the focus locked on the model's eyes. The background is a soft, artistic blur of lights and color."
},
"lighting": {
"main": "A large, soft key light (softbox) slightly off-camera, creating a flattering, glamorous light on the model's face and figure.",
"fill": "Subtle fill light from the opposite side to soften any remaining shadows.",
"effects": "Volumetric haze in the air to catch the light. A background of programmable LED screens displaying abstract, flowing gradients of neon pink, purple, and cyan. A soft, warm rim light traces her silhouette."
},
"scene_description": {
"setting": "A sleek, dark studio with a polished black floor that reflects the model and the background lights. The background is dominated by large, curved LED walls.",
"time_of_day": "Controlled studio lighting.",
"elements": [
{
"type": "model",
"description": "A breathtakingly beautiful female model with a powerful, confident aura and an athletic, curvaceous physique. Her presence is magnetic and intensely captivating. She is singing directly to the camera, her expression shifting between playful smirks and intense, soulful gazes.",
"attire": "A daring, high-fashion liquid silver dress with a thigh-high slit and a plunging neckline. The fabric clings to her form like a second skin, shimmering and catching the light with every subtle movement. Paired with minimalist, strappy high heels. Her hair is styled in glamorous, loose waves, and her makeup is bold and flawless, with a glossy lip and smoky eyes."
}
]
},
"action_sequence": [
{
"time": "0.0s",
"action": "Extreme close-up on the model's lips as she begins to sing."
},
{
"time": "1.5s",
"action": "The camera pulls back slightly to frame her face. She makes direct eye contact with the lens, winking playfully."
},
{
"time": "3.0s",
"action": "The Steadicam begins to orbit as she transitions into a slow, mesmerizing body roll. The liquid silver dress ripples around her."
},
{
"time": "5.0s",
"action": "The camera captures a full-body shot as she executes a powerful and graceful spin. The slit in her dress reveals a flash of her leg as the LED background shifts colors."
},
{
"time": "7.0s",
"action": "The camera starts to push back in, returning to a medium close-up. She holds a pose and delivers the final line of the lyric with a sultry, confident expression."
},
{
"time": "8.0s",
"action": "The shot ends on her holding the intense gaze, a slight, knowing smile on her lips."
}
],
"audio": {
"main_track": "A modern, upbeat pop/R&B track with a strong bassline, slick synth melodies, and a catchy vocal hook. The model's singing is perfectly synced, clear, and professional."
tweet
Veo-3 fast on Flow ๐ค
"High-Fashion Music Video",
"duration_seconds": 8,
"parameters": {
"style": "hyper-realistic, cinematic, high-fashion music video, alluring, sensual, vibrant, slick",
"camera": {
"type": "Arri Alexa LF with Signature Prime lens",
"lens": "40mm T1.8",
"movement": "A fluid Steadicam shot that orbits the model, starting with a close-up on her face and pulling back to reveal her full body and dance moves. It includes a slow, subtle push-in towards the end to heighten intimacy.",
"focus": "Shallow depth of field, keeping the focus locked on the model's eyes. The background is a soft, artistic blur of lights and color."
},
"lighting": {
"main": "A large, soft key light (softbox) slightly off-camera, creating a flattering, glamorous light on the model's face and figure.",
"fill": "Subtle fill light from the opposite side to soften any remaining shadows.",
"effects": "Volumetric haze in the air to catch the light. A background of programmable LED screens displaying abstract, flowing gradients of neon pink, purple, and cyan. A soft, warm rim light traces her silhouette."
},
"scene_description": {
"setting": "A sleek, dark studio with a polished black floor that reflects the model and the background lights. The background is dominated by large, curved LED walls.",
"time_of_day": "Controlled studio lighting.",
"elements": [
{
"type": "model",
"description": "A breathtakingly beautiful female model with a powerful, confident aura and an athletic, curvaceous physique. Her presence is magnetic and intensely captivating. She is singing directly to the camera, her expression shifting between playful smirks and intense, soulful gazes.",
"attire": "A daring, high-fashion liquid silver dress with a thigh-high slit and a plunging neckline. The fabric clings to her form like a second skin, shimmering and catching the light with every subtle movement. Paired with minimalist, strappy high heels. Her hair is styled in glamorous, loose waves, and her makeup is bold and flawless, with a glossy lip and smoky eyes."
}
]
},
"action_sequence": [
{
"time": "0.0s",
"action": "Extreme close-up on the model's lips as she begins to sing."
},
{
"time": "1.5s",
"action": "The camera pulls back slightly to frame her face. She makes direct eye contact with the lens, winking playfully."
},
{
"time": "3.0s",
"action": "The Steadicam begins to orbit as she transitions into a slow, mesmerizing body roll. The liquid silver dress ripples around her."
},
{
"time": "5.0s",
"action": "The camera captures a full-body shot as she executes a powerful and graceful spin. The slit in her dress reveals a flash of her leg as the LED background shifts colors."
},
{
"time": "7.0s",
"action": "The camera starts to push back in, returning to a medium close-up. She holds a pose and delivers the final line of the lyric with a sultry, confident expression."
},
{
"time": "8.0s",
"action": "The shot ends on her holding the intense gaze, a slight, knowing smile on her lips."
}
],
"audio": {
"main_track": "A modern, upbeat pop/R&B track with a strong bassline, slick synth melodies, and a catchy vocal hook. The model's singing is perfectly synced, clear, and professional."
tweet