Yellowbrick Investing
$UTHR

$UTHR don´t really know the name but putting together some basics at roughly 440/450:
20 bln market cap with 5 bln in net cash
-> 15 bln EV (excluded the post-earnings buyback here)
3.2 bln of existing sales with 1.25 bln of NOPAT (annualizing H1 2025)
- IPF should be very incremental to earnings, ChatGPT seeing 3-4 bln in sales with 25% penetration (which sounds low for a high unmet need market?). That should hit totally different towards PnL than the first/current 3 bln, no?

Ton of stuff I know absolutely nothing(!) about here, but that does not look like a challenging valuation?

Feels like this will just be the next ALNY/INSM large cap going up every day and beloved by generalists?

What am I missing? Whats breaking the case here? - AnotherBioInvestor
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naiive
Everyone on X : " just buy the dip "

me: https://t.co/V4q1Cn2GDX
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Yellowbrick Investing
$MANO.L

I just bought $MANO.L, and here’s why I’m bullish on Manolete Partners:

Manolete is a player in the UK insolvency litigation funding market with a 67% share of the Third Party Funding (TPF) market.

The thesis is simple:
- Market Leader in a Growing Niche (they are THE best)
- Huge macro tailwind after years of "worst-case-scenario" with the government saving companies from going bankrupt during Covid-19.
- Clear signs of ARRCC (Average Realised Return per Completed Case) going back to pre-COVID of closer to £200.000k (compared to £101k). Hear is why that is probably THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT metric to follow.
CEO said the following in q2 CC:
"So what should happen over the next one, two, three, four years is that we will trend nicely back up to the pre COVID norm of around £200,000. And that will drop pretty directly to the bottom line profit because there won't be an incremental increase in costs at all."
In other words, their margins will go to the roof compared to now.
Net margin in 2019 = 46,7%
Net margin now = 2,9%

Highly likely scenario in 2 years, assuming 10% decrease in revenue and only a net margin of 15% to see how big of a margin of safety we have:
£27m revenue with a net margin of 15 = £4m
Market cap of £42m / £4m = P/E 10,5 which is not at all unreasonable.

So if I see the net margin above 15% and zero growth two years out, I will, with a very high probability, make money.

In a few years, let's say they hit £200k ARRCC and no growth in cases (conservative), the upside looks a bit different:
rev goes to £60m, net margin of 30% = £18m in profit
Market cap of £42 / £18m in profit = P/E of 2,3
"Risk is the uncertainty and potential for negative outcomes that arise from a lack of knowledge or preparation in decision-making."

A lot can go wrong here, and I will still make money on this investment! - Christian Svane
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AlexandrIA
From the sublime to the seriously questionable … all in one thread!

Prompt Suggestion in ALT! 🧵 https://t.co/OpzQa9P9DC
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Evan
UNITED STATES 🇺🇸 REVOKES TSMC $TSM WAIVER ALLOWING CHINA'S 🇨🇳 SHIPMENTS OF CHIP SUPPLIES
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Dalius - Special Sits
RT @HayekAndKeynes: History offered a good reminder of a few perennial truths in financial markets: you never know which assets will be correlated in a stress period, diversification is the only free lunch (even among similar assets), and you can never underestimate the benefit of speed.

This morning I was watching a documentary on Hong Kong that discussed the Panic of 1866, which began when worthless Confederate bonds helped bring down the major London liquidity provider, Overend, Gurney & Company. This bank's collapse triggered a broader bank run in London, which in turn caused the failure of a trading firm called Dent & Co in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, their competitor Jardines avoided disaster because they received their mail an hour earlier.
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ToffCap
RT @ToffCap: Out with TMM #68, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥

This week:

- SOTP unlocks with catalysts
- an Amer Sports 2.0?
- transformational deals not yet recognized in the price
- a low p/e company growing rapidly with a ton of cash on the b/s and an upcoming spin of a sub which makes it all more fascinating
- potentially juicy tender offers
- some very speculative pico-caps where a lot is going on
- ... and much more.

As always @ToffCap. Enjoy!
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Iqra Saifi
Veo-3 fast on Gemini 🍼🐕

"A high-fidelity prompt for a night-vision camera feed, capturing a scene of inter-species care.",
"perspective": "Static camera, mounted in the upper corner of a darkened nursery.",
"duration_seconds": 8
},
"camera_data": {
"mode": "thermal_and_low_light_hybrid",
"filter": "monochromatic_green_tint",
"grain_level": 0.08,
"scene_elements": [
{
"element_id": "nursery_environment",
"label": "The Room",
"details": {
"description": "A quiet nursery. Faint, ghost-like outlines of furniture are visible. A digital clock on a nightstand shows '2:47 AM' with a faint red glow. Dust motes drift in the air, briefly catching the infra-red light before fading.",
"sounds": "The soft, rhythmic whir of a white noise machine and the low-frequency hum of a heating vent.",
"thermal_signatures": "Cool, solid outlines of walls and furniture. A faint trail of warmth from a recently closed door."
}
},
{
"element_id": "crib_and_infants",
"label": "The Bed with Babies",
"details": {
"description": "A child's bed, central in the frame. The white sheets are a slightly brighter hue of green. Two infants lie side-by-side, their small bodies barely disturbing the covers.",
"thermal_signatures": "Two distinct, bright-white thermal outlines corresponding to the sleeping infants. Their breathing is represented by subtle, periodic expansions and contractions of their chest areas. A faint pink glow surrounds their heads and hands, indicating the highest heat signature."
}
},
{
"element_id": "dog_entry_sequence",
"label": "Dog and Puppy",
"sequence": [
{
"step": 1,
"action": "entry",
"description": "A large golden retriever's head appears in the lower-left corner of the frame. Its thermal signature is a soft, shifting cloud of white and yellow. It moves with a careful, silent deliberation.",
"thermal_signatures": "Paws are dark and cool. The snout and eyes are bright. Faint puffs of warm air are exhaled with each breath."
},
{
"step": 2,
"action": "placement",
"description": "The dog gently nudges a small, still-damp puppy, which it carries carefully in its mouth, towards the space between the two sleeping infants. The puppy's body trembles slightly, a tiny white pulse on the thermal feed. The dog uses its nose to carefully position the puppy, ensuring it is nestled against the warmth of the human children.",
"thermal_signatures": "The puppy is a small, bright white thermal signature. The dog's nose, used for the careful placement, flares brightly with heat."
},
{
"step": 3,
"action": "resting",
"description": "The dog curls into a large C-shape at the foot of the bed. It lowers its head onto its paws. Its eyes blink slowly, creating brief, bright flashes on the feed, before they close. The puppy, now settled, releases a tiny, soft sigh that barely registers as a sound.",
"thermal_signatures": "The dog’s body cools slightly as it relaxes, its core temperature remaining a prominent white glow. The puppy’s signature brightens as it absorbs warmth from its new sleeping companions."
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naiive
Ethereum coming back to the crypto bull market
https://t.co/acDvNe7Rat
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Evan
McDonald's $MCD CEO Chris Kempczinski said today that global consumers are making choices to avoid American 🇺🇸 brands as perceptions of the country become less positive

“The aura around America has dimmed a bit” https://t.co/5ksC2Ye86f
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Aadit Sheth
This paper literally reveals how to fine-tune agents without fine-tuning LLMs https://t.co/fNfABQwqeR
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