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The All-In Podcast
🚨Chamath on why the Fed could keep holding off rate cuts: "The only answer is political."
The FOMC's June rate cut decision is happening this week. It is expected they will keep rates unchanged.
The chances of a Summer rate cut are extremely small.
According to Polymarket:
-- June: ~98% chance of "No change"
-- July: ~87% chance of "No change"
Chamath's take:
"Let's just scenario play. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut right now?"
"I'll tell you. So one part, which is mathematical, is the interest on the debt goes down. We save $300B."
"But there's something else that happens, which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve."
"Meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years."
"If you make that cheaper, it's a test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money."
"That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP."
"So what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the $300B, but you can get this reflexive positivity in the economy."
"What that allows you to do is, even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing."
"If the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't (you) do it?"
"The only answer is political."
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🚨Chamath on why the Fed could keep holding off rate cuts: "The only answer is political."
The FOMC's June rate cut decision is happening this week. It is expected they will keep rates unchanged.
The chances of a Summer rate cut are extremely small.
According to Polymarket:
-- June: ~98% chance of "No change"
-- July: ~87% chance of "No change"
Chamath's take:
"Let's just scenario play. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut right now?"
"I'll tell you. So one part, which is mathematical, is the interest on the debt goes down. We save $300B."
"But there's something else that happens, which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve."
"Meaning how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years."
"If you make that cheaper, it's a test as true as time, what happens is people borrow more money."
"That fuels more growth. That will end up in GDP."
"So what actually happens if you cut rates 100 basis points is not just the $300B, but you can get this reflexive positivity in the economy."
"What that allows you to do is, even if that causes a little bit more inflation, you're actually growing yourself out of this whole thing."
"If the numerical justification is there to lower rates and it has all of these other positive externalities for the United States economy, why don't (you) do it?"
"The only answer is political."
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App Economy Insights
Forget the 2017 Golden State Warriors.
$META is building its own AI super team.
Why did Zuck spend $14B on a 28-year-old?
Let's break it down 👇
https://t.co/BGN49eQqoJ
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Forget the 2017 Golden State Warriors.
$META is building its own AI super team.
Why did Zuck spend $14B on a 28-year-old?
Let's break it down 👇
https://t.co/BGN49eQqoJ
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Investing visuals
$PLTR is flirting with new all-time highs. Here’s how they make money 🤑 https://t.co/LzHGFhYmWq
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$PLTR is flirting with new all-time highs. Here’s how they make money 🤑 https://t.co/LzHGFhYmWq
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna have officially introduced a bill to prohibit U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran war without congressional approval.
It appears that there are 14 cosponsors, including:
- AOC
- Greg Casar
- Ilhan Omar
- Ayanna Pressley
- Lloyd Doggett
- Chuy Garcia
- Val Hoyle
- Pramila Jayapal
- Summer Lee
- Jim McGovern
- Don Beyer
- Delia Ramirez
- Rashida Tlaib
- Nydia Velazquez
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JUST IN: Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna have officially introduced a bill to prohibit U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran war without congressional approval.
It appears that there are 14 cosponsors, including:
- AOC
- Greg Casar
- Ilhan Omar
- Ayanna Pressley
- Lloyd Doggett
- Chuy Garcia
- Val Hoyle
- Pramila Jayapal
- Summer Lee
- Jim McGovern
- Don Beyer
- Delia Ramirez
- Rashida Tlaib
- Nydia Velazquez
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: We've seen multiple members of Congress file trades of defense stocks.
Here's an update on some of our reports from the last couple weeks:
Raytheon stock has risen 8% since the trade in image 1.
L3Harris stock has risen 14% since the trade in image 2.
Northrop Grumman stock has risen 4% since the trade in image 3.
General Dynamics stock has risen 3% since the trade in image 4.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver, or follow here for updates.
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UPDATE: We've seen multiple members of Congress file trades of defense stocks.
Here's an update on some of our reports from the last couple weeks:
Raytheon stock has risen 8% since the trade in image 1.
L3Harris stock has risen 14% since the trade in image 2.
Northrop Grumman stock has risen 4% since the trade in image 3.
General Dynamics stock has risen 3% since the trade in image 4.
Track politicians' portfolios on Quiver, or follow here for updates.
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