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Wall St Engine
CITRON SAYS $RKT IS ABOUT TO DISRUPT HOUSING LIKE AMAZON DID RETAIL
Citron says Sen. Warren’s June 3 letter warning against Rocket’s merger with Redfin and Mr. Cooper actually boosts the stock. Her claim that the combo would “dominate the entire homebuying process”? That’s the point. Citron argues this is Amazon-style disruption—lower fees, more tech, and finally some real change for U.S. homebuyers.
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CITRON SAYS $RKT IS ABOUT TO DISRUPT HOUSING LIKE AMAZON DID RETAIL
Citron says Sen. Warren’s June 3 letter warning against Rocket’s merger with Redfin and Mr. Cooper actually boosts the stock. Her claim that the combo would “dominate the entire homebuying process”? That’s the point. Citron argues this is Amazon-style disruption—lower fees, more tech, and finally some real change for U.S. homebuyers.
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Wall St Engine
CIRCLE $CRCL SHARES INDICATED AT $50/$52 VERSUS $31 IPO PRICE
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CIRCLE $CRCL SHARES INDICATED AT $50/$52 VERSUS $31 IPO PRICE
CIRCLE $CRCL SHARES INDICATED $42/$44 AFTER IPO PRICED AT $31 tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE: Elon is done with DOGE & is opposing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”
Because of this, $TSLA was sold out of our Trump Donor Portfolio on Autopilot.
The stock rose 30% from Trump’s election win until the sale.
It has fallen 7% since our sale. https://t.co/I1cmljaSJS
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UPDATE: Elon is done with DOGE & is opposing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill”
Because of this, $TSLA was sold out of our Trump Donor Portfolio on Autopilot.
The stock rose 30% from Trump’s election win until the sale.
It has fallen 7% since our sale. https://t.co/I1cmljaSJS
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.09x
•10-Year Mean: 25.04x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.17%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%
As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~46% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.70B
$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 73x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.8%
•2024: 55.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•2024: 80.8%
$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $14.43B
•2024: $40.34B
•CAGR: 10.82%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $4.50B
•2024: $10.25B
•CAGR: 8.58%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.78
•2024: $3.16
•CAGR: 15.01%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 5.26B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~15.2%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~17.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 85.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 48.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 34.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~46% MORE in EPS & ~11% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at an 8.55% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.55%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.04 (21.9% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $4.78 (11.8% YoY)
2027E: $5.45 (12.6% YoY)
$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NVO ends 2027 with $4.90 in EPS (-10% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $112.70💵 … ~24.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $107.80💵 … ~22.4% CAGR
21x P/E: $102.90💵 … ~20.4% CAGR
20x P/E: $98.00💵 … ~18.2% CAGR
19x P/E: $93.10💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20x earnings (a multiple below its 10-year mean, & a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)
Today at $66💵 $NVO is a strong consideration for investment
By assuming a 20x end multiple & 2027 EPS -10% below analyst estimates, we ensure a good margin of safety to compensate for the inherent risks in the biotech / biopharma space (lack of predictability, R&D risk, patent expirations, etc.)
#stocks #investing
*Financials in USD
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.09x
•10-Year Mean: 25.04x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.17%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%
As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~46% MORE in earnings per share & ~11% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $11.70B
$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 73x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.8%
•2024: 55.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•2024: 80.8%
$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2014: $14.43B
•2024: $40.34B
•CAGR: 10.82%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $4.50B
•2024: $10.25B
•CAGR: 8.58%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.78
•2024: $3.16
•CAGR: 15.01%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 5.26B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~15.2%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~17.9% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 85.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 48.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 34.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~46% MORE in EPS & ~11% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at an 8.55% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.55%) required growth rate:
2025E: $4.04 (21.9% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $4.78 (11.8% YoY)
2027E: $5.45 (12.6% YoY)
$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NVO ends 2027 with $4.90 in EPS (-10% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $112.70💵 … ~24.4% CAGR
22x P/E: $107.80💵 … ~22.4% CAGR
21x P/E: $102.90💵 … ~20.4% CAGR
20x P/E: $98.00💵 … ~18.2% CAGR
19x P/E: $93.10💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20x earnings (a multiple below its 10-year mean, & a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)
Today at $66💵 $NVO is a strong consideration for investment
By assuming a 20x end multiple & 2027 EPS -10% below analyst estimates, we ensure a good margin of safety to compensate for the inherent risks in the biotech / biopharma space (lack of predictability, R&D risk, patent expirations, etc.)
#stocks #investing
*Financials in USD
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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App Economy Insights
Circle's IPO is today.
The stablecoin issuer raised $1.1B.
$CRCL might pop from its $31 IPO price.
Here's how they make money. 👇 https://t.co/39Z9dTJyE9
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Circle's IPO is today.
The stablecoin issuer raised $1.1B.
$CRCL might pop from its $31 IPO price.
Here's how they make money. 👇 https://t.co/39Z9dTJyE9
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Trump says that Elon is upset because they took out the EV mandate.
"They're having a hard time with the electric vehicles, and want us to pay billions of dollars in subsidies" https://t.co/7BKZC05Ndk
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JUST IN: Trump says that Elon is upset because they took out the EV mandate.
"They're having a hard time with the electric vehicles, and want us to pay billions of dollars in subsidies" https://t.co/7BKZC05Ndk
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Elon has responded to Trump’s statement https://t.co/060zlXetUJ
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BREAKING: Elon has responded to Trump’s statement https://t.co/060zlXetUJ
JUST IN: Trump says that Elon is upset because they took out the EV mandate.
"They're having a hard time with the electric vehicles, and want us to pay billions of dollars in subsidies" https://t.co/7BKZC05Ndk tweet