Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Congrats to those who stayed through with $MRL.L
I sold earlier unfortunately. https://t.co/Cwt6VVZRQq
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Congrats to those who stayed through with $MRL.L
I sold earlier unfortunately. https://t.co/Cwt6VVZRQq
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Wall St Engine
$DLTR | Dollar Tree Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.26 (Est. $1.21) 🟢; +2.4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.6B (Est. $4.72B) 🔴; +11.3% YoY
FY Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $18.5B–$19.1B (Est. $18.95B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.15–$5.65 (Est. $5.21) 🟢
FY Guidance:
🔸 Same-store sales expected to grow 3%–5%
🔸 Assumes existing tariff levels remain unchanged
🔸 FY EPS will reflect full-year SG&A costs of Family Dollar support, but reimbursement will only be for H2 → ~$0.30–$0.35 drag on FY EPS
🔸 Second quarter EPS expected to be down 45–50% YoY due to timing of inputs, before re-acceleration in H2
Q1 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree Segment)
🔹 Same-Store Net Sales Growth: +5.4%
🔹 Traffic: +2.5%
🔹 Average Ticket: +2.8%
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $388M; +1.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 35.6%; +20bps YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 8.4%; -80bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.9% (vs. 24.6%)
🔹 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 26.1% (vs. 24.6%)
Strategic/Operational Metrics
🔹 New Stores Opened: 148
🔹 Stores Converted to Multi-Price Format: ~500
🔹 Operating Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $379M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $130M
🔹 Share Repurchases: $436.8M (5.9M shares); Additional $67.5M post quarter-end
🔹 Remaining Repurchase Authorization: $519.7M
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.0B
🔹 No borrowings under revolvers or commercial paper at quarter-end
Family Dollar Sale (Discontinued Ops)
🔹 Agreed Sale Price: $1.007B
🔹 Expected Net Proceeds: ~$800M
🔹 Estimated Tax Benefit: ~$350M
🔹 Antitrust Approval: Received
🔹 Expected Close: Q2 FY2025
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon:
"Our strong first quarter performance underscores the progress we’ve made against our strategic priorities... we see a meaningful opportunity to further elevate the value, convenience, and discovery that our customers depend on Dollar Tree to provide."
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$DLTR | Dollar Tree Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.26 (Est. $1.21) 🟢; +2.4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.6B (Est. $4.72B) 🔴; +11.3% YoY
FY Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $18.5B–$19.1B (Est. $18.95B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.15–$5.65 (Est. $5.21) 🟢
FY Guidance:
🔸 Same-store sales expected to grow 3%–5%
🔸 Assumes existing tariff levels remain unchanged
🔸 FY EPS will reflect full-year SG&A costs of Family Dollar support, but reimbursement will only be for H2 → ~$0.30–$0.35 drag on FY EPS
🔸 Second quarter EPS expected to be down 45–50% YoY due to timing of inputs, before re-acceleration in H2
Q1 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree Segment)
🔹 Same-Store Net Sales Growth: +5.4%
🔹 Traffic: +2.5%
🔹 Average Ticket: +2.8%
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $388M; +1.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 35.6%; +20bps YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 8.4%; -80bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.9% (vs. 24.6%)
🔹 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 26.1% (vs. 24.6%)
Strategic/Operational Metrics
🔹 New Stores Opened: 148
🔹 Stores Converted to Multi-Price Format: ~500
🔹 Operating Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $379M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $130M
🔹 Share Repurchases: $436.8M (5.9M shares); Additional $67.5M post quarter-end
🔹 Remaining Repurchase Authorization: $519.7M
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.0B
🔹 No borrowings under revolvers or commercial paper at quarter-end
Family Dollar Sale (Discontinued Ops)
🔹 Agreed Sale Price: $1.007B
🔹 Expected Net Proceeds: ~$800M
🔹 Estimated Tax Benefit: ~$350M
🔹 Antitrust Approval: Received
🔹 Expected Close: Q2 FY2025
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon:
"Our strong first quarter performance underscores the progress we’ve made against our strategic priorities... we see a meaningful opportunity to further elevate the value, convenience, and discovery that our customers depend on Dollar Tree to provide."
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Raises $WFC PT to $87 from $77 - OW
Analyst comments: "We are raising 2025 EPS by $0.03 (0.5%) to $5.61, raising 2026 EPS by $0.24 (4%) to $6.67, and raising 2027 EPS by $0.52 (7%) to $8.13 on faster loan and deposit growth and slower expenses. Our new model assumes 3.0%/3.9% average loan growth in 2026/2027, up from our prior estimates of 2.3%/2.8% and closer to the industry average. We also lower expense growth to 0.4%/0.4% in 2026/2027, down from our prior estimate of 1.4%/1.5%.
We are raising our price target from $77 to $87, applying a 13x target P/E to our 2026 EPS of $6.67. The target P/E is one turn higher than our prior multiple, reflecting Wells Fargo’s faster growth and higher return profile. We expect Wells will raise its ROTCE target of 15% to 15–17%+."
Analyst: Betsy Graseck
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Morgan Stanley Raises $WFC PT to $87 from $77 - OW
Analyst comments: "We are raising 2025 EPS by $0.03 (0.5%) to $5.61, raising 2026 EPS by $0.24 (4%) to $6.67, and raising 2027 EPS by $0.52 (7%) to $8.13 on faster loan and deposit growth and slower expenses. Our new model assumes 3.0%/3.9% average loan growth in 2026/2027, up from our prior estimates of 2.3%/2.8% and closer to the industry average. We also lower expense growth to 0.4%/0.4% in 2026/2027, down from our prior estimate of 1.4%/1.5%.
We are raising our price target from $77 to $87, applying a 13x target P/E to our 2026 EPS of $6.67. The target P/E is one turn higher than our prior multiple, reflecting Wells Fargo’s faster growth and higher return profile. We expect Wells will raise its ROTCE target of 15% to 15–17%+."
Analyst: Betsy Graseck
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
ADP US MAY PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT: +37K; EST. +115K - WEAKEST SINCE MARCH 2023 https://t.co/ATTPCpLDx9
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ADP US MAY PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT: +37K; EST. +115K - WEAKEST SINCE MARCH 2023 https://t.co/ATTPCpLDx9
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
"After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum. Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers." - Chief Economist, ADP https://t.co/COZSKfNeq0
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"After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum. Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers." - Chief Economist, ADP https://t.co/COZSKfNeq0
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Wall St Engine
Scotiabank Reiterates Sector Outperform on $ASTS, Maintains PT at $45.40; 'Could Jeff Bezos become an ASTS investor?', 'we wouldn’t be surprised if both groups are exploring a larger agreement'
Analyst comments: "Our take: Positive. ASTS rallied yesterday after Ms. Adriana Cisneros posted a picture on Instagram showing the three of them together and titled 'Amazing things are happening at AST & Science + @blueorigin.' The meeting’s location was not disclosed, but while Avellan and Cisneros are wearing guest badges, Bezos is not. Only a few days ago, Blue Origin management visited the ASTS headquarters in Texas. Cisneros was ASTS’s first-ever institutional investor and is currently a board member.
In November 2024, ASTS announced that Bezos’ rocket company, Blue Origin, will handle the launch of up to 45 BB2 satellites with options for an additional 15. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is expected to carry up to 8 satellites per launch, making ASTS one of Blue Origin’s top customers. We doubt this was the sole reason for Bezos meeting with Avellan. There are major opportunities for collaboration, especially regarding Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which targets fixed broadband—a different segment from ASTS’s direct-to-cell strategy. A partnership could be compelling, as there are five times more wireless than fixed connections globally.
Could Jeff Bezos become an ASTS investor? This is a possibility widely discussed by investors and analysts. Bezos is one of the world’s leading space investors, and Blue Origin features the ASTS agreement as one of its top-three recent developments. ASTS’s highly specialized RF technology, protected by thousands of patents, presents a formidable barrier to entry, even for Kuiper. While Amazon plans to invest $13B–$16B in Kuiper’s 3,236 satellites, ASTS’s current market cap is only $8.3B, yet we project ASTS’s revenue at $30B by 2033—higher than Kuiper’s $25B estimate by our Amazon analyst, Nat Schindler.
More importantly, ASTS’s wholesale business model, with guided ~90% EBITDA margins, is likely to be significantly more profitable than Kuiper’s retail model, which will face distribution and marketing costs. In summary, we wouldn’t be surprised if both groups are exploring a larger agreement involving New Glenn launch support and potential commercial or equity agreements between ASTS and Amazon to address the global satellite fixed-wireless opportunity."
Analyst: Andres Coello
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Scotiabank Reiterates Sector Outperform on $ASTS, Maintains PT at $45.40; 'Could Jeff Bezos become an ASTS investor?', 'we wouldn’t be surprised if both groups are exploring a larger agreement'
Analyst comments: "Our take: Positive. ASTS rallied yesterday after Ms. Adriana Cisneros posted a picture on Instagram showing the three of them together and titled 'Amazing things are happening at AST & Science + @blueorigin.' The meeting’s location was not disclosed, but while Avellan and Cisneros are wearing guest badges, Bezos is not. Only a few days ago, Blue Origin management visited the ASTS headquarters in Texas. Cisneros was ASTS’s first-ever institutional investor and is currently a board member.
In November 2024, ASTS announced that Bezos’ rocket company, Blue Origin, will handle the launch of up to 45 BB2 satellites with options for an additional 15. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is expected to carry up to 8 satellites per launch, making ASTS one of Blue Origin’s top customers. We doubt this was the sole reason for Bezos meeting with Avellan. There are major opportunities for collaboration, especially regarding Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which targets fixed broadband—a different segment from ASTS’s direct-to-cell strategy. A partnership could be compelling, as there are five times more wireless than fixed connections globally.
Could Jeff Bezos become an ASTS investor? This is a possibility widely discussed by investors and analysts. Bezos is one of the world’s leading space investors, and Blue Origin features the ASTS agreement as one of its top-three recent developments. ASTS’s highly specialized RF technology, protected by thousands of patents, presents a formidable barrier to entry, even for Kuiper. While Amazon plans to invest $13B–$16B in Kuiper’s 3,236 satellites, ASTS’s current market cap is only $8.3B, yet we project ASTS’s revenue at $30B by 2033—higher than Kuiper’s $25B estimate by our Amazon analyst, Nat Schindler.
More importantly, ASTS’s wholesale business model, with guided ~90% EBITDA margins, is likely to be significantly more profitable than Kuiper’s retail model, which will face distribution and marketing costs. In summary, we wouldn’t be surprised if both groups are exploring a larger agreement involving New Glenn launch support and potential commercial or equity agreements between ASTS and Amazon to address the global satellite fixed-wireless opportunity."
Analyst: Andres Coello
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