Wall St Engine
Stifel Reiterates Buy on $DKNG, PT $53
Analyst comments: "We recently hosted DraftKings (CFO; IR) for a series of 1-on-1 investor meetings at our annual Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference. Our key takeaways include: 1) the highly surprising second Illinois tax hike will likely lead to more aggressive mitigation and pass-through strategies across the industry, 2) concerns around handle deceleration focus on the wrong KPI, with total addressable market momentum intact, and 3) management is confident in their odds and modeling despite outcomes-related earnings misses, with growth in props and in-play helping organically hedge. We continue to recommend buying on three-month trailing weakness, as fears around market-wide handle deceleration discount the inverse impact from net gaming revenue-accretive structural hold expansion and lower promotions. Our confidence in TAM momentum is supported by user acquisition runway. Tactically, the legislative catalyst path skews negative through June 30, though DraftKings seems likely a share winner in MLB and other non-NFL/NBA sports, while iCasino share is re-accelerating quarter-to-date. Reiterate Buy and $53 target price."
Analyst: Jeff Stantial
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Stifel Reiterates Buy on $DKNG, PT $53
Analyst comments: "We recently hosted DraftKings (CFO; IR) for a series of 1-on-1 investor meetings at our annual Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference. Our key takeaways include: 1) the highly surprising second Illinois tax hike will likely lead to more aggressive mitigation and pass-through strategies across the industry, 2) concerns around handle deceleration focus on the wrong KPI, with total addressable market momentum intact, and 3) management is confident in their odds and modeling despite outcomes-related earnings misses, with growth in props and in-play helping organically hedge. We continue to recommend buying on three-month trailing weakness, as fears around market-wide handle deceleration discount the inverse impact from net gaming revenue-accretive structural hold expansion and lower promotions. Our confidence in TAM momentum is supported by user acquisition runway. Tactically, the legislative catalyst path skews negative through June 30, though DraftKings seems likely a share winner in MLB and other non-NFL/NBA sports, while iCasino share is re-accelerating quarter-to-date. Reiterate Buy and $53 target price."
Analyst: Jeff Stantial
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Wall St Engine
Needham Downgrades $AAPL to Hold from Buy
Analyst comments: "We downgrade Apple to Hold (from Buy), based on: Fundamentals—we lower estimates due to threats to Apple’s near-term revenue and EPS growth. Competition—every Big Tech competitor wants to erode Apple’s 15%–30% platform tax. Generative AI innovations also open the door for new hardware form factors that could threaten iOS devices. Valuation—as of June 2, 2025, Apple trades at a forward 2026 P/E of over 26x, which looks expensive on several metrics.
What would make us more positive: we believe that, for this stock to work, it must have the catalyst of an iPhone replacement cycle, which we do not foresee in the next 12 months. Until then, we believe that $170–$180 per share is a better entry level. Separately, if Apple decided to aggressively pursue an advertising revenue stream, we believe this could materially accelerate revenue and EPS growth."
Analyst: Laura Martin
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Needham Downgrades $AAPL to Hold from Buy
Analyst comments: "We downgrade Apple to Hold (from Buy), based on: Fundamentals—we lower estimates due to threats to Apple’s near-term revenue and EPS growth. Competition—every Big Tech competitor wants to erode Apple’s 15%–30% platform tax. Generative AI innovations also open the door for new hardware form factors that could threaten iOS devices. Valuation—as of June 2, 2025, Apple trades at a forward 2026 P/E of over 26x, which looks expensive on several metrics.
What would make us more positive: we believe that, for this stock to work, it must have the catalyst of an iPhone replacement cycle, which we do not foresee in the next 12 months. Until then, we believe that $170–$180 per share is a better entry level. Separately, if Apple decided to aggressively pursue an advertising revenue stream, we believe this could materially accelerate revenue and EPS growth."
Analyst: Laura Martin
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Congrats to those who stayed through with $MRL.L
I sold earlier unfortunately. https://t.co/Cwt6VVZRQq
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Congrats to those who stayed through with $MRL.L
I sold earlier unfortunately. https://t.co/Cwt6VVZRQq
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Wall St Engine
$DLTR | Dollar Tree Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.26 (Est. $1.21) 🟢; +2.4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.6B (Est. $4.72B) 🔴; +11.3% YoY
FY Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $18.5B–$19.1B (Est. $18.95B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.15–$5.65 (Est. $5.21) 🟢
FY Guidance:
🔸 Same-store sales expected to grow 3%–5%
🔸 Assumes existing tariff levels remain unchanged
🔸 FY EPS will reflect full-year SG&A costs of Family Dollar support, but reimbursement will only be for H2 → ~$0.30–$0.35 drag on FY EPS
🔸 Second quarter EPS expected to be down 45–50% YoY due to timing of inputs, before re-acceleration in H2
Q1 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree Segment)
🔹 Same-Store Net Sales Growth: +5.4%
🔹 Traffic: +2.5%
🔹 Average Ticket: +2.8%
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $388M; +1.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 35.6%; +20bps YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 8.4%; -80bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.9% (vs. 24.6%)
🔹 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 26.1% (vs. 24.6%)
Strategic/Operational Metrics
🔹 New Stores Opened: 148
🔹 Stores Converted to Multi-Price Format: ~500
🔹 Operating Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $379M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $130M
🔹 Share Repurchases: $436.8M (5.9M shares); Additional $67.5M post quarter-end
🔹 Remaining Repurchase Authorization: $519.7M
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.0B
🔹 No borrowings under revolvers or commercial paper at quarter-end
Family Dollar Sale (Discontinued Ops)
🔹 Agreed Sale Price: $1.007B
🔹 Expected Net Proceeds: ~$800M
🔹 Estimated Tax Benefit: ~$350M
🔹 Antitrust Approval: Received
🔹 Expected Close: Q2 FY2025
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon:
"Our strong first quarter performance underscores the progress we’ve made against our strategic priorities... we see a meaningful opportunity to further elevate the value, convenience, and discovery that our customers depend on Dollar Tree to provide."
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$DLTR | Dollar Tree Q1 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.26 (Est. $1.21) 🟢; +2.4% YoY
🔹 Revenue: $4.6B (Est. $4.72B) 🔴; +11.3% YoY
FY Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $18.5B–$19.1B (Est. $18.95B) 🟡
🔹 Adj. EPS: $5.15–$5.65 (Est. $5.21) 🟢
FY Guidance:
🔸 Same-store sales expected to grow 3%–5%
🔸 Assumes existing tariff levels remain unchanged
🔸 FY EPS will reflect full-year SG&A costs of Family Dollar support, but reimbursement will only be for H2 → ~$0.30–$0.35 drag on FY EPS
🔸 Second quarter EPS expected to be down 45–50% YoY due to timing of inputs, before re-acceleration in H2
Q1 Same-Store Sales (Dollar Tree Segment)
🔹 Same-Store Net Sales Growth: +5.4%
🔹 Traffic: +2.5%
🔹 Average Ticket: +2.8%
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Adj Operating Income: $388M; +1.4% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 35.6%; +20bps YoY
🔹 Adj Operating Margin: 8.4%; -80bps YoY
🔹 Effective Tax Rate: 25.9% (vs. 24.6%)
🔹 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate: 26.1% (vs. 24.6%)
Strategic/Operational Metrics
🔹 New Stores Opened: 148
🔹 Stores Converted to Multi-Price Format: ~500
🔹 Operating Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $379M
🔹 Free Cash Flow (Continuing Ops): $130M
🔹 Share Repurchases: $436.8M (5.9M shares); Additional $67.5M post quarter-end
🔹 Remaining Repurchase Authorization: $519.7M
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $1.0B
🔹 No borrowings under revolvers or commercial paper at quarter-end
Family Dollar Sale (Discontinued Ops)
🔹 Agreed Sale Price: $1.007B
🔹 Expected Net Proceeds: ~$800M
🔹 Estimated Tax Benefit: ~$350M
🔹 Antitrust Approval: Received
🔹 Expected Close: Q2 FY2025
Management Commentary
🔸 CEO Mike Creedon:
"Our strong first quarter performance underscores the progress we’ve made against our strategic priorities... we see a meaningful opportunity to further elevate the value, convenience, and discovery that our customers depend on Dollar Tree to provide."
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Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Raises $WFC PT to $87 from $77 - OW
Analyst comments: "We are raising 2025 EPS by $0.03 (0.5%) to $5.61, raising 2026 EPS by $0.24 (4%) to $6.67, and raising 2027 EPS by $0.52 (7%) to $8.13 on faster loan and deposit growth and slower expenses. Our new model assumes 3.0%/3.9% average loan growth in 2026/2027, up from our prior estimates of 2.3%/2.8% and closer to the industry average. We also lower expense growth to 0.4%/0.4% in 2026/2027, down from our prior estimate of 1.4%/1.5%.
We are raising our price target from $77 to $87, applying a 13x target P/E to our 2026 EPS of $6.67. The target P/E is one turn higher than our prior multiple, reflecting Wells Fargo’s faster growth and higher return profile. We expect Wells will raise its ROTCE target of 15% to 15–17%+."
Analyst: Betsy Graseck
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Morgan Stanley Raises $WFC PT to $87 from $77 - OW
Analyst comments: "We are raising 2025 EPS by $0.03 (0.5%) to $5.61, raising 2026 EPS by $0.24 (4%) to $6.67, and raising 2027 EPS by $0.52 (7%) to $8.13 on faster loan and deposit growth and slower expenses. Our new model assumes 3.0%/3.9% average loan growth in 2026/2027, up from our prior estimates of 2.3%/2.8% and closer to the industry average. We also lower expense growth to 0.4%/0.4% in 2026/2027, down from our prior estimate of 1.4%/1.5%.
We are raising our price target from $77 to $87, applying a 13x target P/E to our 2026 EPS of $6.67. The target P/E is one turn higher than our prior multiple, reflecting Wells Fargo’s faster growth and higher return profile. We expect Wells will raise its ROTCE target of 15% to 15–17%+."
Analyst: Betsy Graseck
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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Over the past decade (2014-2024) Mastercard & Visa have delivered stellar growth 💸
Mastercard’s EPS compounded at +16.68% annually, & Visa’s at +16.04%
$MA $V https://t.co/N66fgevnRg
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
ADP US MAY PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT: +37K; EST. +115K - WEAKEST SINCE MARCH 2023 https://t.co/ATTPCpLDx9
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ADP US MAY PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT: +37K; EST. +115K - WEAKEST SINCE MARCH 2023 https://t.co/ATTPCpLDx9
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
"After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum. Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers." - Chief Economist, ADP https://t.co/COZSKfNeq0
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"After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum. Pay growth, however, was little changed in May, holding at robust levels for both job-stayers and job-changers." - Chief Economist, ADP https://t.co/COZSKfNeq0
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