Wall St Engine
Barclays Downgrades $ASML to Equalweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to €650 from €770
Analyst comments: "Given lack of positive catalysts and downside risk to 2026 consensus along with muted growth prospects, we see limited chance of a rerating near term. The biggest positive surprises would be Samsung or Intel restarting material spending, but we see this as unlikely before 2027 at the earliest if at all. We also see limited content growth nearer term and customer efficiency is also minimising tool requirements. Delays to high NA adoption could also be unhelpful for ASML's growth perception. We think that will be unfair as we model a revenue CAGR of 11% between 2026-2030, meaning we remain positive on the long-term outlook, but think growth could just be volatile in the coming years."
Analyst: Simon Coles
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Barclays Downgrades $ASML to Equalweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to €650 from €770
Analyst comments: "Given lack of positive catalysts and downside risk to 2026 consensus along with muted growth prospects, we see limited chance of a rerating near term. The biggest positive surprises would be Samsung or Intel restarting material spending, but we see this as unlikely before 2027 at the earliest if at all. We also see limited content growth nearer term and customer efficiency is also minimising tool requirements. Delays to high NA adoption could also be unhelpful for ASML's growth perception. We think that will be unfair as we model a revenue CAGR of 11% between 2026-2030, meaning we remain positive on the long-term outlook, but think growth could just be volatile in the coming years."
Analyst: Simon Coles
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Downgrades $BMBL to Underweight from Neutral, PT $5
Analyst comments: "Bumble shares have traded up over 50% since Liberation Day, and are now more than 10% above our PT. The move higher largely reflects significant profit upgrades at 1Q earnings due to marketing / opex cuts, which more than offset weaker revenue trends. We struggle to justify raising our price target given our expectation for revenue and payer declines to accelerate, regardless of the macro environment. Intra-qtr US download trends took another step down (see slide 9), and we see downside risk to consensus revenue and Bumble app net add estimates in 2H – we are below the Street. We expect margins to moderate in 2H as brand marketing resumes (i.e., another big upgrade seems unlikely). Online dating category remains challenged, with Gen Z product/market fit issues. Tinder is further along in its turnaround effort, but revenue is still in decline with MTCH shares near all-time lows. BMBL valuation is undemanding at ~7x 2025 FCF, but our rating system is relative to our coverage and there are cheaper stocks with stronger growth profiles."
Analyst: Cory Carpenter
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JPMorgan Downgrades $BMBL to Underweight from Neutral, PT $5
Analyst comments: "Bumble shares have traded up over 50% since Liberation Day, and are now more than 10% above our PT. The move higher largely reflects significant profit upgrades at 1Q earnings due to marketing / opex cuts, which more than offset weaker revenue trends. We struggle to justify raising our price target given our expectation for revenue and payer declines to accelerate, regardless of the macro environment. Intra-qtr US download trends took another step down (see slide 9), and we see downside risk to consensus revenue and Bumble app net add estimates in 2H – we are below the Street. We expect margins to moderate in 2H as brand marketing resumes (i.e., another big upgrade seems unlikely). Online dating category remains challenged, with Gen Z product/market fit issues. Tinder is further along in its turnaround effort, but revenue is still in decline with MTCH shares near all-time lows. BMBL valuation is undemanding at ~7x 2025 FCF, but our rating system is relative to our coverage and there are cheaper stocks with stronger growth profiles."
Analyst: Cory Carpenter
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Wall St Engine
Jefferies Raises $NFLX PT to $1,400 from $1,200 - Buy
Analyst comments: "We continue to see a favorable catalyst path for NFLX over the short, medium, and long-term. Firstly, the combination of US price increases and one of the best 2H release slates in recent memory (e.g. Squid Game, Stranger Things Final Season, Wednesday, NFL Games) position the company well to achieve at least the high end of the FY25 rev guide. In FY26, we are below the street on UCAN net adds (2.2M vs. cons. 3.2M). However, we believe the combination of ad tier monetization improving, and the full year benefit of price hikes should drive ARM growth. Over the next 5yrs, we believe NFLX should sustain 20%+ EPS and FCF growth with high margin ad rev, expansion into live sports, and price hikes the key drivers."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Jefferies Raises $NFLX PT to $1,400 from $1,200 - Buy
Analyst comments: "We continue to see a favorable catalyst path for NFLX over the short, medium, and long-term. Firstly, the combination of US price increases and one of the best 2H release slates in recent memory (e.g. Squid Game, Stranger Things Final Season, Wednesday, NFL Games) position the company well to achieve at least the high end of the FY25 rev guide. In FY26, we are below the street on UCAN net adds (2.2M vs. cons. 3.2M). However, we believe the combination of ad tier monetization improving, and the full year benefit of price hikes should drive ARM growth. Over the next 5yrs, we believe NFLX should sustain 20%+ EPS and FCF growth with high margin ad rev, expansion into live sports, and price hikes the key drivers."
Analyst: James Heaney
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Upgrades $PINS to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $40 from $35
Analyst comments: "While Pinterest shares have outperformed YTD at +10% vs. the SPX +1%, they remain down -18% from the February market highs compared to the SPX more fully recovered at -3%. We believe PINS has made solid progress across its 2023 Investor Day priorities to: 1) grow users & deepen engagement; 2) improve monetization/ARPU (mid-high teens revenue CAGR); & 3) drive profitable growth (30-34% adj. EBITDA margin target). Importantly, we believe PINS is leveraging its full funnel ad approach and automation/AI capabilities — including Performance+ — to capture a greater share of ad spending among the next tranche of advertisers ($1B-$30B in sales), while some of the larger & more sophisticated advertisers already allocate 5-10% of their budgets to PINS."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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JPMorgan Upgrades $PINS to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $40 from $35
Analyst comments: "While Pinterest shares have outperformed YTD at +10% vs. the SPX +1%, they remain down -18% from the February market highs compared to the SPX more fully recovered at -3%. We believe PINS has made solid progress across its 2023 Investor Day priorities to: 1) grow users & deepen engagement; 2) improve monetization/ARPU (mid-high teens revenue CAGR); & 3) drive profitable growth (30-34% adj. EBITDA margin target). Importantly, we believe PINS is leveraging its full funnel ad approach and automation/AI capabilities — including Performance+ — to capture a greater share of ad spending among the next tranche of advertisers ($1B-$30B in sales), while some of the larger & more sophisticated advertisers already allocate 5-10% of their budgets to PINS."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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Wall St Engine
Piper Sandler on $TSLA (OW; PT $400): "On Friday we hosted an investor call with Jordan Giesige of 'The Limiting Factor'. Our take: thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China. In fact, for in-house '4680' batteries, China reliance is already approaching 0%. Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials (CAM), refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars. No other U.S. entity can make similar claims. Success isn't assured, and in the next 2+ years, there's no way to insulate the U.S. supply chain from China... but at least Tesla has a plan."
Analyst: Alexander Potter
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Piper Sandler on $TSLA (OW; PT $400): "On Friday we hosted an investor call with Jordan Giesige of 'The Limiting Factor'. Our take: thanks to vertical integration, Tesla is the only car company that is trying to source batteries, at scale, without relying on China. In fact, for in-house '4680' batteries, China reliance is already approaching 0%. Eventually, Tesla will be making its own cathode active materials (CAM), refining its own lithium, building its own anodes, coating its own electrodes, assembling its own cells, and selling its own cars. No other U.S. entity can make similar claims. Success isn't assured, and in the next 2+ years, there's no way to insulate the U.S. supply chain from China... but at least Tesla has a plan."
Analyst: Alexander Potter
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Wall St Engine
$META is in EU court today challenging the bloc’s decision to label Messenger and Marketplace as core services under the Digital Markets Act. Meta says Messenger is just part of Facebook, not a standalone chat app, and that Marketplace shouldn’t have been on the list at all. A loss here could make it harder for the EU to enforce the DMA long term.
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$META is in EU court today challenging the bloc’s decision to label Messenger and Marketplace as core services under the Digital Markets Act. Meta says Messenger is just part of Facebook, not a standalone chat app, and that Marketplace shouldn’t have been on the list at all. A loss here could make it harder for the EU to enforce the DMA long term.
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Wall St Engine
BOJ 🇯🇵 Governor Kazuo Ueda told Japan’s parliament the bank won’t raise rates just to “make room” for future cuts, stressing any hike would require clear signs of economic strength. With trade tensions rising, he said uncertainty remains “extremely high.” BOJ is also sticking to its plan to cut bond purchases by ¥400B per quarter through March.
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BOJ 🇯🇵 Governor Kazuo Ueda told Japan’s parliament the bank won’t raise rates just to “make room” for future cuts, stressing any hike would require clear signs of economic strength. With trade tensions rising, he said uncertainty remains “extremely high.” BOJ is also sticking to its plan to cut bond purchases by ¥400B per quarter through March.
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Wall St Engine
Amazon $AMZN AWS just announced it’s setting up a new EU-based company & dedicated Security Operations Center for its European Sovereign Cloud. It’ll be run entirely by EU citizens, built & operated within the EU, with no reliance on non-EU infrastructure. Launching by end of 2025, this cloud will be "fully featured and independently operated," per AWS.
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Amazon $AMZN AWS just announced it’s setting up a new EU-based company & dedicated Security Operations Center for its European Sovereign Cloud. It’ll be run entirely by EU citizens, built & operated within the EU, with no reliance on non-EU infrastructure. Launching by end of 2025, this cloud will be "fully featured and independently operated," per AWS.
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Wall St Engine
Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $UBER, PT $102
Analyst comments: "After the close Uber announced that Andrew Macdonald (current SVP of Mobility and Business Operations) has been appointed as President/COO following the retirement of Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty (SVP of Delivery). Strategically, this combines leadership for both Mobility and Delivery which should result in greater operational integration as Uber One & GoGet benefits scale across divisions. This follows Mobility GB’s +20% Y/Y ex-FX in 1Q (and our expectation for +20% Y/Y ex-FX in 2Q) while Delivery benefits from continued Food demand along with greater adoption from newer verticals like Grocery and Retail (on a $10B GB ARR) as profitability improves. Turning to AV, we’re watching Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin, TX on 06/12 and with Waymo now completing 250K+ paid trips / week (+150% vs. Aug ’24), we note continued demand, and we include CPUC data on AV rides below. We reiterate our Buy rating and $102 TP."
Analyst: Ronald Josey
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Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $UBER, PT $102
Analyst comments: "After the close Uber announced that Andrew Macdonald (current SVP of Mobility and Business Operations) has been appointed as President/COO following the retirement of Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty (SVP of Delivery). Strategically, this combines leadership for both Mobility and Delivery which should result in greater operational integration as Uber One & GoGet benefits scale across divisions. This follows Mobility GB’s +20% Y/Y ex-FX in 1Q (and our expectation for +20% Y/Y ex-FX in 2Q) while Delivery benefits from continued Food demand along with greater adoption from newer verticals like Grocery and Retail (on a $10B GB ARR) as profitability improves. Turning to AV, we’re watching Tesla’s robotaxi launch in Austin, TX on 06/12 and with Waymo now completing 250K+ paid trips / week (+150% vs. Aug ’24), we note continued demand, and we include CPUC data on AV rides below. We reiterate our Buy rating and $102 TP."
Analyst: Ronald Josey
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Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI Upgrades $XYZ to Outperform from In Line, Raises PT to $75 from $58; Reasons for the upgrade:
1. Cash App lending won’t be as aggressive as we thought coming out of 1Q earnings. We were really worried that more aggressive lending (to new consumers in new states w/ higher limits) would be used to offset lower 1Q Cash App #’s, but feedback from our industry contacts and multiple company follow-ups enabled a deeper understanding of its growth/risk tolerance balance and made us materially less concerned than we were initially.
2. Low end consumer spending trends are steady and holding up well. Our checks point to relatively steady low-end consumer spending trends, deposit rates, unemployment deposits, etc. – which is consistent with XYZ’s comments a week after the print about an April rebound in Cash App gross profit to 13% yoy growth (vs 7% in March and 10% in 1Q).
3. New product releases at Square bode well for future development efficiency and growth opportunities. New hardware (handheld), software (consolidated app), and 'Square Releases' (bi-annual product and roadmap updates) are solid proof points that the recent reorg in product/engineering is paying off and could continue to drive better growth and competitiveness.
4. Sales under Nick Molnar is a key value driver. We spoke with Nick this week and were impressed with his GTM plan and initial execution success in sales channel build-outs (especially tele sales and field personnel). US ISO partnerships are very early.
5. Valuation is still attractive despite the recent bounce (+5% over the past week), as the stock is still down 27% ytd vs Nasdaq down <1% and trading at a discount to recent ev to revs and ebitda multiples as well as compared to the broader comp group.
near-term risks/catalysts: 1. cash app borrow (cab) losses and the related balance sheet exposure. to be clear, we are still concerned about increased loan exposure in new markets as that almost always brings higher initial losses that fade over time, just not as much as we were initially. 2. direct deposit and/or 'like' trends at ca – the key metric to show future monetization potential but we question whether xyz’s definition is too narrow to accurately depict the progress here. 3. macro headlines – xyz is more exposed due to low-income consumers & micro-smb merchants but the most severe tariff-related scenarios appear to be somewhat mitigated in recent weeks."
analyst: adam frisch
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Evercore ISI Upgrades $XYZ to Outperform from In Line, Raises PT to $75 from $58; Reasons for the upgrade:
1. Cash App lending won’t be as aggressive as we thought coming out of 1Q earnings. We were really worried that more aggressive lending (to new consumers in new states w/ higher limits) would be used to offset lower 1Q Cash App #’s, but feedback from our industry contacts and multiple company follow-ups enabled a deeper understanding of its growth/risk tolerance balance and made us materially less concerned than we were initially.
2. Low end consumer spending trends are steady and holding up well. Our checks point to relatively steady low-end consumer spending trends, deposit rates, unemployment deposits, etc. – which is consistent with XYZ’s comments a week after the print about an April rebound in Cash App gross profit to 13% yoy growth (vs 7% in March and 10% in 1Q).
3. New product releases at Square bode well for future development efficiency and growth opportunities. New hardware (handheld), software (consolidated app), and 'Square Releases' (bi-annual product and roadmap updates) are solid proof points that the recent reorg in product/engineering is paying off and could continue to drive better growth and competitiveness.
4. Sales under Nick Molnar is a key value driver. We spoke with Nick this week and were impressed with his GTM plan and initial execution success in sales channel build-outs (especially tele sales and field personnel). US ISO partnerships are very early.
5. Valuation is still attractive despite the recent bounce (+5% over the past week), as the stock is still down 27% ytd vs Nasdaq down <1% and trading at a discount to recent ev to revs and ebitda multiples as well as compared to the broader comp group.
near-term risks/catalysts: 1. cash app borrow (cab) losses and the related balance sheet exposure. to be clear, we are still concerned about increased loan exposure in new markets as that almost always brings higher initial losses that fade over time, just not as much as we were initially. 2. direct deposit and/or 'like' trends at ca – the key metric to show future monetization potential but we question whether xyz’s definition is too narrow to accurately depict the progress here. 3. macro headlines – xyz is more exposed due to low-income consumers & micro-smb merchants but the most severe tariff-related scenarios appear to be somewhat mitigated in recent weeks."
analyst: adam frisch
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Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI says there’s “no sign of impact from the Epic ruling...yet” on Apple’s $AAPL App Store. May revenue was up +13% Y/Y, with U.S. App Store growth hitting +10%—the best since January. Analysts note developers seem to be taking a “slow and cautious” approach post-ruling. June will be the key test.
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Evercore ISI says there’s “no sign of impact from the Epic ruling...yet” on Apple’s $AAPL App Store. May revenue was up +13% Y/Y, with U.S. App Store growth hitting +10%—the best since January. Analysts note developers seem to be taking a “slow and cautious” approach post-ruling. June will be the key test.
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Wall St Engine
Citi’s Steven Zaccone is sticking with his Buy rating and $180 price target on $BOOT Barn after the company’s latest 8-K revealed strong sales momentum.
Same-store sales are up +10.1% quarter-to-date through the first 9 weeks, an acceleration from the +9% trend reported on May 14. That’s well ahead of BOOT’s own 1Q guidance of +4.0–6.0% and Street consensus of +5.8%.
Zaccone says this update supports his earlier view that FY26 guidance was “significantly conservative” and that the setup for a beat-and-raise in July is looking solid.
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Citi’s Steven Zaccone is sticking with his Buy rating and $180 price target on $BOOT Barn after the company’s latest 8-K revealed strong sales momentum.
Same-store sales are up +10.1% quarter-to-date through the first 9 weeks, an acceleration from the +9% trend reported on May 14. That’s well ahead of BOOT’s own 1Q guidance of +4.0–6.0% and Street consensus of +5.8%.
Zaccone says this update supports his earlier view that FY26 guidance was “significantly conservative” and that the setup for a beat-and-raise in July is looking solid.
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