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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
The S&P 500 $SPY just turned positive YTD
At one point $SPY entered a bear market and was down -21%
Here are 10 quality stocks that are up substantially more than the market YTD & their latest forward multiples ๐งต https://t.co/HW0hh04KOr
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The S&P 500 $SPY just turned positive YTD
At one point $SPY entered a bear market and was down -21%
Here are 10 quality stocks that are up substantially more than the market YTD & their latest forward multiples ๐งต https://t.co/HW0hh04KOr
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โ Wall St Engine
$ULTA Beauty Q1 Earnings Highlights
๐น Revenue: $2.85B (Est. $2.79B) ๐ข +4.5% YoY
๐น EPS: $6.70 (Est. $5.75) ๐ข
๐น Comparable Sales: +2.9% (vs. +1.6% YoY)
๐น Gross Margin: 39.1% (vs. 39.2% YoY)
๐น Inventory: $2.1B (+11.3% YoY)
FY25 Guidance
๐น Revenue: $11.5Bโ$11.7B (Prior: $11.5Bโ$11.6B | Est. $11.58B) ๐
๐น EPS: $22.65โ$23.20 (Prior: $22.50โ$22.90 | Est. $24.07) ๐ด
๐น Comparable Sales: 0% to +1.5% (Prior: 0% to +1%)
๐น Operating Margin: 11.7%โ11.8% (No change)
๐น Share Repurchases: ~$900M (No change)
๐น New Stores: ~60 | Remodels/Relocations: 40โ45
๐น CapEx: $425Mโ$500M
๐น Tax Rate: ~24.5%
๐น Depreciation/Amortization: $290Mโ$300M
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
๐น Operating Margin: 14.1% (vs. 14.7% YoY)
๐น Net Income: $305.1M (vs. $313.1M YoY)
๐น SG&A Expenses: $710.6M (Up +6.7% YoY)
๐น Store Footprint: 6 net new stores opened; now 1,451 total
๐น Share Buybacks: $358.7M repurchased in Q1
๐น Cash & Equivalents: $454.6M
Management Commentary
๐ธ CEO: โEncouraging start to FY25 driven by the success of our Ulta Beauty Unleashed plan. However, outlook reflects consumer demand uncertainty. We remain focused and agile.โ
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$ULTA Beauty Q1 Earnings Highlights
๐น Revenue: $2.85B (Est. $2.79B) ๐ข +4.5% YoY
๐น EPS: $6.70 (Est. $5.75) ๐ข
๐น Comparable Sales: +2.9% (vs. +1.6% YoY)
๐น Gross Margin: 39.1% (vs. 39.2% YoY)
๐น Inventory: $2.1B (+11.3% YoY)
FY25 Guidance
๐น Revenue: $11.5Bโ$11.7B (Prior: $11.5Bโ$11.6B | Est. $11.58B) ๐
๐น EPS: $22.65โ$23.20 (Prior: $22.50โ$22.90 | Est. $24.07) ๐ด
๐น Comparable Sales: 0% to +1.5% (Prior: 0% to +1%)
๐น Operating Margin: 11.7%โ11.8% (No change)
๐น Share Repurchases: ~$900M (No change)
๐น New Stores: ~60 | Remodels/Relocations: 40โ45
๐น CapEx: $425Mโ$500M
๐น Tax Rate: ~24.5%
๐น Depreciation/Amortization: $290Mโ$300M
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
๐น Operating Margin: 14.1% (vs. 14.7% YoY)
๐น Net Income: $305.1M (vs. $313.1M YoY)
๐น SG&A Expenses: $710.6M (Up +6.7% YoY)
๐น Store Footprint: 6 net new stores opened; now 1,451 total
๐น Share Buybacks: $358.7M repurchased in Q1
๐น Cash & Equivalents: $454.6M
Management Commentary
๐ธ CEO: โEncouraging start to FY25 driven by the success of our Ulta Beauty Unleashed plan. However, outlook reflects consumer demand uncertainty. We remain focused and agile.โ
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โ Wall St Engine
$GAP Q1 Earnings Highlights
๐น Revenue: $3.5B (Est. $3.42B) ๐ข +2% YoY
๐น EPS: $0.51 (Est. $0.45) ๐ข
๐น Comparable Sales: +2% (Est. +1.6%) ๐ข
Tariff Impact:
๐ธ Minimal in Q2.
๐ธ FY gross impact of $250Mโ$300M if tariffs stay; after mitigation, net ~$100Mโ$150M weighted to H2.
FY Outlook
๐น Revenue: +1% to +2% (vs. $15.1B in FY24)
๐น Operating Income: +8% to +10% (vs. $1.1B in FY24)
๐น Net Interest Income: ~$15M
๐น Effective Tax Rate: ~26%
๐น CapEx: ~$600M
๐น Net Store Closures: ~35
Q2 Outlook
๐น Revenue: Flat YoY
๐น Gross Margin: Similar to Q1 (41.8%)
๐น Operating Expense (% of Sales): Slight leverage YoY
Brand-Level Comparable Sales (Q1 FY25)
๐น Old Navy: +3% (9th straight quarter of share gains)
๐น Gap: +5% (6th straight positive comps, 8th quarter share gain)
๐น Banana Republic: Flat (Net sales -3%)
๐น Athleta: -8% (Net sales -6%)
Other Q1 Metrics:
๐น Gross Margin: 41.8% (+60 bps YoY)=
๐น Online Sales: +6% YoY; 39% of total sales
๐น Store Sales: Flat YoY; 2,496 company-operated out of ~3,500 total stores=
๐น Inventory: $2.1B (+7% YoY)
๐น Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.2B (+28% YoY)
๐น Free Cash Flow: -$223M
๐น Shareholder Return: $131M via dividends and buybacks
๐น Shares Repurchased: 4M for $70M
๐น Dividend: $0.165/share approved for Q2
CEO Commentary
๐ธ "Exceeded expectations. Positive comps for the 5th straight quarter. Brand reinvigoration is working. Staying focused on controllables for long-term growth." โ Richard Dickson, CEO
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$GAP Q1 Earnings Highlights
๐น Revenue: $3.5B (Est. $3.42B) ๐ข +2% YoY
๐น EPS: $0.51 (Est. $0.45) ๐ข
๐น Comparable Sales: +2% (Est. +1.6%) ๐ข
Tariff Impact:
๐ธ Minimal in Q2.
๐ธ FY gross impact of $250Mโ$300M if tariffs stay; after mitigation, net ~$100Mโ$150M weighted to H2.
FY Outlook
๐น Revenue: +1% to +2% (vs. $15.1B in FY24)
๐น Operating Income: +8% to +10% (vs. $1.1B in FY24)
๐น Net Interest Income: ~$15M
๐น Effective Tax Rate: ~26%
๐น CapEx: ~$600M
๐น Net Store Closures: ~35
Q2 Outlook
๐น Revenue: Flat YoY
๐น Gross Margin: Similar to Q1 (41.8%)
๐น Operating Expense (% of Sales): Slight leverage YoY
Brand-Level Comparable Sales (Q1 FY25)
๐น Old Navy: +3% (9th straight quarter of share gains)
๐น Gap: +5% (6th straight positive comps, 8th quarter share gain)
๐น Banana Republic: Flat (Net sales -3%)
๐น Athleta: -8% (Net sales -6%)
Other Q1 Metrics:
๐น Gross Margin: 41.8% (+60 bps YoY)=
๐น Online Sales: +6% YoY; 39% of total sales
๐น Store Sales: Flat YoY; 2,496 company-operated out of ~3,500 total stores=
๐น Inventory: $2.1B (+7% YoY)
๐น Cash & Short-Term Investments: $2.2B (+28% YoY)
๐น Free Cash Flow: -$223M
๐น Shareholder Return: $131M via dividends and buybacks
๐น Shares Repurchased: 4M for $70M
๐น Dividend: $0.165/share approved for Q2
CEO Commentary
๐ธ "Exceeded expectations. Positive comps for the 5th straight quarter. Brand reinvigoration is working. Staying focused on controllables for long-term growth." โ Richard Dickson, CEO
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โ Wall St Engine
$COST | Costco Q3 Earnings Highlights
๐น EPS: $4.28 (Est. $4.25) ๐ข
๐น Revenue: $61.96B (Est. $63.13B) ๐ด
๐น Total Co.: +5.7% (Est. +5.58%) ๐ข | ex-gas & FX: +8.0% (Est. +6.99%) ๐ข
๐น Net Income: $1.90B (vs. $1.68B YoY)
๐น Gross Margin: 11.3% (flat YoY)
๐น Membership Fee Revenue: $1.24B (vs. $1.12B YoY)
๐น Total Revenue (incl. Membership): $63.21B (+8.0% YoY)
Comparable Sales (YoY):
๐น U.S.: +6.6% | ex-gas & FX: +7.9%
๐น Canada: +2.9% | ex-gas & FX: +7.8%
๐น Other Int'l: +3.2% | ex-gas & FX: +8.5%
๐น E-commerce: +14.8% | ex-gas & FX: +15.7%
Operations:
๐น Warehouse count: 905 globally
๐น U.S. & Puerto Rico: 624 | Canada: 109 | China: 7
๐น E-commerce operating in 8 countries including U.S., Canada, UK, and Japan
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$COST | Costco Q3 Earnings Highlights
๐น EPS: $4.28 (Est. $4.25) ๐ข
๐น Revenue: $61.96B (Est. $63.13B) ๐ด
๐น Total Co.: +5.7% (Est. +5.58%) ๐ข | ex-gas & FX: +8.0% (Est. +6.99%) ๐ข
๐น Net Income: $1.90B (vs. $1.68B YoY)
๐น Gross Margin: 11.3% (flat YoY)
๐น Membership Fee Revenue: $1.24B (vs. $1.12B YoY)
๐น Total Revenue (incl. Membership): $63.21B (+8.0% YoY)
Comparable Sales (YoY):
๐น U.S.: +6.6% | ex-gas & FX: +7.9%
๐น Canada: +2.9% | ex-gas & FX: +7.8%
๐น Other Int'l: +3.2% | ex-gas & FX: +8.5%
๐น E-commerce: +14.8% | ex-gas & FX: +15.7%
Operations:
๐น Warehouse count: 905 globally
๐น U.S. & Puerto Rico: 624 | Canada: 109 | China: 7
๐น E-commerce operating in 8 countries including U.S., Canada, UK, and Japan
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Offshore
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โ App Economy Insights
$COST Costco Q3 FY25.
โข Revenue +9% Y/Y to $63.2B ($0.1B beat).
โข EPS $4.28 ($0.05 beat).
โข 905 warehouses (+27 Y/Y, +8 Q/Q).
Comparable sales Y/Y (adjusted):
โข US +7.9%.
โข Company +8.0%.
โข E-commerce +15.7%. https://t.co/uAv1HG4xAa
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$COST Costco Q3 FY25.
โข Revenue +9% Y/Y to $63.2B ($0.1B beat).
โข EPS $4.28 ($0.05 beat).
โข 905 warehouses (+27 Y/Y, +8 Q/Q).
Comparable sales Y/Y (adjusted):
โข US +7.9%.
โข Company +8.0%.
โข E-commerce +15.7%. https://t.co/uAv1HG4xAa
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โ Wall St Engine
The DOJ is asking a Texas judge to dismiss the criminal fraud case against Boeing $BA tied to the 737 MAX crashes. The move would let Boeing avoid prosecution in exchange for over $1.1B in fines and reforms. Families of crash victims are opposing the deal. Trial was set for June 23.
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The DOJ is asking a Texas judge to dismiss the criminal fraud case against Boeing $BA tied to the 737 MAX crashes. The move would let Boeing avoid prosecution in exchange for over $1.1B in fines and reforms. Families of crash victims are opposing the deal. Trial was set for June 23.
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โ Wall St Engine
Barclays has agreed to purchase 100,000 Microsoft's Copilot licenses, as shared in a company town hall Thursday. Thatโs tens of millions in annual revenue at list price for $MSFT. https://t.co/q7HMWLUAv1
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Barclays has agreed to purchase 100,000 Microsoft's Copilot licenses, as shared in a company town hall Thursday. Thatโs tens of millions in annual revenue at list price for $MSFT. https://t.co/q7HMWLUAv1
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โ Wall St Engine
Ecuador and Palantir $PLTR have partnered to support the countryโs digital transformation, starting with customs enforcement. The AI tools will help detect high-risk operations, fight smuggling, and boost legal trade. https://t.co/404j0POSI2
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Ecuador and Palantir $PLTR have partnered to support the countryโs digital transformation, starting with customs enforcement. The AI tools will help detect high-risk operations, fight smuggling, and boost legal trade. https://t.co/404j0POSI2
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โ Wall St Engine
SpaceXโs city on Mars could be called โTERMIUNSโ https://t.co/IlhBRzJp1z
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SpaceXโs city on Mars could be called โTERMIUNSโ https://t.co/IlhBRzJp1z
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