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KeyBanc says CMS is expanding RADV audits and "Medicare Advantage can't catch a break." CMS plans to audit all ~550 MA plans annually by 2026 (up from just 60), ramping coders from 40 to 2,000 and reviewing up to 200 records per plan. Extrapolated, CMS could recover $5B–$9B a year (1–2% of MA payments), but that’s speculative.
MA stocks like $HUM, $UNH, and $ALHC dropped 3–5% after hours as investors weighed the added regulatory pressure. KeyBanc remains Overweight on UNH despite the hit, citing valuation at 10-year lows and a possible 2026 recovery—though clarity might not come until late 2025.
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KeyBanc says CMS is expanding RADV audits and "Medicare Advantage can't catch a break." CMS plans to audit all ~550 MA plans annually by 2026 (up from just 60), ramping coders from 40 to 2,000 and reviewing up to 200 records per plan. Extrapolated, CMS could recover $5B–$9B a year (1–2% of MA payments), but that’s speculative.
MA stocks like $HUM, $UNH, and $ALHC dropped 3–5% after hours as investors weighed the added regulatory pressure. KeyBanc remains Overweight on UNH despite the hit, citing valuation at 10-year lows and a possible 2026 recovery—though clarity might not come until late 2025.
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Wall St Engine
Truist’s Jailendra Singh is sticking with a Hold rating on $HIMS & a $45 PT after Evernorth (Cigna) announced a new offering to make Wegovy and Zepbound available for $200/month — a big discount compared to HIMS' $399/month compounded semaglutide. The new plan simplifies prior authorization and counts toward deductibles.
Singh points out this could pressure the cash-pay GLP-1 market, especially if other PBMs follow Evernorth’s lead. While HIMS has avoided integrating insurance, calling most consumers underinsured, this move potentially undercuts that strategy. With cheaper, covered options on the table, competition for weight loss drug access just got a lot tighter.
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Truist’s Jailendra Singh is sticking with a Hold rating on $HIMS & a $45 PT after Evernorth (Cigna) announced a new offering to make Wegovy and Zepbound available for $200/month — a big discount compared to HIMS' $399/month compounded semaglutide. The new plan simplifies prior authorization and counts toward deductibles.
Singh points out this could pressure the cash-pay GLP-1 market, especially if other PBMs follow Evernorth’s lead. While HIMS has avoided integrating insurance, calling most consumers underinsured, this move potentially undercuts that strategy. With cheaper, covered options on the table, competition for weight loss drug access just got a lot tighter.
BofA Reiterates Underperform Rating on $HIMS, PT $28
Analyst comments: "Observed sales data continues to weaken sequentially. Observed sales growth year-over-year decelerated 6ppts from March with sales down 6% month-over-month (3% adjusted for days) and GLP-1 sales declined for the 2nd consecutive month. While early in the quarter, April trends suggest upside to 2Q Street estimates with Online revenue of $552MM–$578MM vs. VA consensus of $539.2MM. However, this assumes compounded semaglutide sales remain consistent through June as a percentage of sales. Additionally, modeling revenue from the Wegovy partnership which began in May would likely make future projections more challenging. Meanwhile, growth ex-GLP-1s remains relatively steady and could be benefitting from oral weight loss demand as customers switch from commercial GLP-1 doses. The 503B semaglutide compounding deadline on May 22nd could prompt the FDA or NVO to work toward limiting the scale of personalized compounding. Ultimately, the ability to meet the FY25 guide hinges on the scale of personalized GLP-1s (refer to our 1Q note), which is a catch-22 as higher GLP-1 sales could reintroduce litigation risk into the model. If sales of compounded semaglutide moderates in May/June, core growth and Wegovy would need to provide the offset which could prove challenging. Maintain Underperform."
Analyst: Michael Cherny tweet
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HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING AFTER $SNOW EARNINGS:
1) Goldman Sachs – $230 PT – CONVICTION BUY – Kash Rangan
"We reiterate our Buy rating (on CL) and raise our Price Target to $230 (from $205) on the back of strong F1Q results that saw Product Revenue +3.6% above Consensus, cRPO accelerating to +31% (vs. +27% prior Q)... With 1Q results and 2Q guidance pointing to consumption activity clearly trending in the right direction... we believe Snowflake has helped dispel any concerns over macro-induced demand degradation... Look to Snowflake Summit... as the next catalyst."
2) JPMorgan – $225 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Mark Murphy
"Snowflake raising its FY26 Product revenue outlook above the Q1 beat while peers are largely electing not to raise full-year guidance... The magnitude of upside vs. guidance of $39M improves vs. Q4... Consumption was 'very strong coming out of the holiday period'... The company brought >125 product capabilities to market in Q1... We remain constructive... and maintain OW; PT to $225."
3) DA Davidson – $250 PT – BUY – Gil Luria
"We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target... highlighted by continued strength in the core business leading to better than expected product revenue growth... adoption and traction of Snowflake's latest AI/ML products is ramping quickly... SNOW remains our top pick in all of Software."
4) Evercore ISI – $232 PT – OUTPERFORM – Kirk Materne
"Product revenue of $996.8mn (+26%), solidly above mgmt. guidance... Management flagged they have seen no negative impact from the macro... We believe the combination of revenue stabilization in the mid-20%s alongside some operating leverage can help drive further multiple expansion."
5) BTIG – $235 PT – BUY – Gray Powell
"SNOW posted exceptional Q1 results... Literally every major top line KPI came in above expectations... Product revenue could potentially accelerate in FQ2... cloud data analytics platforms like SNOW are early beneficiaries of [AI]... We increased our PT to $235/share. Reiterate Buy."
6) Wolfe Research – $230 PT – OUTPERFORM – Alex Zukin
"The company's multiple growth vectors, including core warehousing strength, expanding AI adoption, and strategic partnerships with MSFT, position SNOW well for sustainable growth... SNOW remains Outperform rated."
7) Citizens JMP – $245 PT – MARKET OUTPERFORM – Joe Goodwin
“Product revenue of $997M... beating by $38M or 4%... free cash flow of $183.4M (missing the consensus)... RPO of $6.69B... up 34% y/y... all of which left the stock up 7% in the aftermarket... We maintain our Market Outperform rating.”
8) Piper Sandler – $215 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Brent Bracelin
"SNOW remains one of our highest conviction growth ideas... Solid Q1 execution... on 26% y/y product growth was encouraging given an uncertain macro backdrop... increasing confidence in an efficient growth model."
9) Needham – $230 PT – BUY – Mike Cikos
"Product Revenue exceeding guidance by 3.8%... we view accelerated Headcount growth for both COGS and Sales & Marketing in 1QFY26 as indicative of Snowflake seeding and reaccelerating future Product Revenue growth."
10) Raymond James – $212 PT – OUTPERFORM – Simon Leopold
"Momentum and new product growth appear sustainable... commentary around strong traction with Cortex... Management has not observed softening demand and the guidance does not reflect any macro impacts."
11) Barclays – $219 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Raimo Lenschow
"Above average top-line beat and above Street Q2/FY26 product revenue guides... SNOW reiterating its FY26 adj. FCF margin guide... shares to react positively... Maintain our Overweight rating."
12) UBS – $210 PT – NEUTRAL – Karl Keirstead
"Very strong 2Q/Jul guidance and the absence of any 'macro' commentary... Bottom line, the print should bolster Stre[...]
HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING AFTER $SNOW EARNINGS:
1) Goldman Sachs – $230 PT – CONVICTION BUY – Kash Rangan
"We reiterate our Buy rating (on CL) and raise our Price Target to $230 (from $205) on the back of strong F1Q results that saw Product Revenue +3.6% above Consensus, cRPO accelerating to +31% (vs. +27% prior Q)... With 1Q results and 2Q guidance pointing to consumption activity clearly trending in the right direction... we believe Snowflake has helped dispel any concerns over macro-induced demand degradation... Look to Snowflake Summit... as the next catalyst."
2) JPMorgan – $225 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Mark Murphy
"Snowflake raising its FY26 Product revenue outlook above the Q1 beat while peers are largely electing not to raise full-year guidance... The magnitude of upside vs. guidance of $39M improves vs. Q4... Consumption was 'very strong coming out of the holiday period'... The company brought >125 product capabilities to market in Q1... We remain constructive... and maintain OW; PT to $225."
3) DA Davidson – $250 PT – BUY – Gil Luria
"We reiterate our BUY rating and raise our price target... highlighted by continued strength in the core business leading to better than expected product revenue growth... adoption and traction of Snowflake's latest AI/ML products is ramping quickly... SNOW remains our top pick in all of Software."
4) Evercore ISI – $232 PT – OUTPERFORM – Kirk Materne
"Product revenue of $996.8mn (+26%), solidly above mgmt. guidance... Management flagged they have seen no negative impact from the macro... We believe the combination of revenue stabilization in the mid-20%s alongside some operating leverage can help drive further multiple expansion."
5) BTIG – $235 PT – BUY – Gray Powell
"SNOW posted exceptional Q1 results... Literally every major top line KPI came in above expectations... Product revenue could potentially accelerate in FQ2... cloud data analytics platforms like SNOW are early beneficiaries of [AI]... We increased our PT to $235/share. Reiterate Buy."
6) Wolfe Research – $230 PT – OUTPERFORM – Alex Zukin
"The company's multiple growth vectors, including core warehousing strength, expanding AI adoption, and strategic partnerships with MSFT, position SNOW well for sustainable growth... SNOW remains Outperform rated."
7) Citizens JMP – $245 PT – MARKET OUTPERFORM – Joe Goodwin
“Product revenue of $997M... beating by $38M or 4%... free cash flow of $183.4M (missing the consensus)... RPO of $6.69B... up 34% y/y... all of which left the stock up 7% in the aftermarket... We maintain our Market Outperform rating.”
8) Piper Sandler – $215 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Brent Bracelin
"SNOW remains one of our highest conviction growth ideas... Solid Q1 execution... on 26% y/y product growth was encouraging given an uncertain macro backdrop... increasing confidence in an efficient growth model."
9) Needham – $230 PT – BUY – Mike Cikos
"Product Revenue exceeding guidance by 3.8%... we view accelerated Headcount growth for both COGS and Sales & Marketing in 1QFY26 as indicative of Snowflake seeding and reaccelerating future Product Revenue growth."
10) Raymond James – $212 PT – OUTPERFORM – Simon Leopold
"Momentum and new product growth appear sustainable... commentary around strong traction with Cortex... Management has not observed softening demand and the guidance does not reflect any macro impacts."
11) Barclays – $219 PT – OVERWEIGHT – Raimo Lenschow
"Above average top-line beat and above Street Q2/FY26 product revenue guides... SNOW reiterating its FY26 adj. FCF margin guide... shares to react positively... Maintain our Overweight rating."
12) UBS – $210 PT – NEUTRAL – Karl Keirstead
"Very strong 2Q/Jul guidance and the absence of any 'macro' commentary... Bottom line, the print should bolster Stre[...]
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Wall St Engine HERE'S WHAT ANALYSTS ARE SAYING AFTER $SNOW EARNINGS: 1) Goldman Sachs – $230 PT – CONVICTION BUY – Kash Rangan "We reiterate our Buy rating (on CL) and raise our Price Target to $230 (from $205) on the back of strong F1Q results that saw…
et confidence in enterprise data spend in 2025... expect some follow-through in the stock."
13) BofA Securities – $220 PT – NEUTRAL – Brad Sills
"Solid Q1 results... However, with only 3 net new Global 2000 customer adds... We question whether [new workloads] will be material enough to offset slowing growth in the core over time."
14) Morgan Stanley – $200 PT – EQUALWEIGHT – Keith Weiss
"A clean and impressive quarter... At this stage, the main road block is valuation... Raise our PT to $200. We would take advantage of pullbacks to get more constructive."
15) Bernstein (SocGen) – $191 PT – MARKET PERFORM – Mark Moerdler
"CRPO growth (27%), Increase in the guidance... NRR slipping to 124%... growth continues to slow (albeit at a slower rate)... While we like the quarter and near-term outlook... remain on the sidelines."
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13) BofA Securities – $220 PT – NEUTRAL – Brad Sills
"Solid Q1 results... However, with only 3 net new Global 2000 customer adds... We question whether [new workloads] will be material enough to offset slowing growth in the core over time."
14) Morgan Stanley – $200 PT – EQUALWEIGHT – Keith Weiss
"A clean and impressive quarter... At this stage, the main road block is valuation... Raise our PT to $200. We would take advantage of pullbacks to get more constructive."
15) Bernstein (SocGen) – $191 PT – MARKET PERFORM – Mark Moerdler
"CRPO growth (27%), Increase in the guidance... NRR slipping to 124%... growth continues to slow (albeit at a slower rate)... While we like the quarter and near-term outlook... remain on the sidelines."
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$BJ | BJ’s Wholesale Club Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $5.03B (Est. $5.19B) 🔴
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.14 (Est. $0.91) 🟢; +34.1% YoY
FY25 Guidance (Reaffirmed):
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $4.10–$4.30 (Est. $4.24) 🟡
🔹 Comparable Sales ex-Gas: +2.0% to +3.5% YoY
Q1 Comparable Sales & Digital Metrics:
🔹 Total Comparable Club Sales: +1.6% YoY
🔹 Comp Sales (ex. Gasoline): +3.9% YoY
🔹 Digitally Enabled Comp Sales: +35% YoY; +56% two-year stacked
Membership & Customer Growth:
🔹 Membership Fee Income: $120.4M; +8.1% YoY
🔸 Driven by growth in high-tier memberships and fee increase (Jan 2025)
Store Expansion:
🔹 5 New Clubs Opened
🔹 4 New Gas Stations Opened
Capital & Shareholder Returns:
🔹 Share Repurchase: 55,000 shares for $6.2M in Q1
🔹 Capex FY25 Guidance: ~$800M
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $149.8M; +34.9% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $203.6M; +26.7% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $285.8M; +20.9% YoY
🔹 Gross Profit: $969.5M (vs. $883.4M YoY); ↑ merchandise margin +30bps YoY
🔸 Management Commentary:
CEO Bob Eddy:
🔸 "Strong execution, membership gains, and traffic growth drove a solid Q1, reflecting our long-term priorities and value-first model."
CFO Laura Felice:
🔸 "We’re confident in our positioning and reiterate full-year guidance, staying focused on executing our growth strategy."
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$BJ | BJ’s Wholesale Club Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $5.03B (Est. $5.19B) 🔴
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $1.14 (Est. $0.91) 🟢; +34.1% YoY
FY25 Guidance (Reaffirmed):
🔹 Adjusted EPS: $4.10–$4.30 (Est. $4.24) 🟡
🔹 Comparable Sales ex-Gas: +2.0% to +3.5% YoY
Q1 Comparable Sales & Digital Metrics:
🔹 Total Comparable Club Sales: +1.6% YoY
🔹 Comp Sales (ex. Gasoline): +3.9% YoY
🔹 Digitally Enabled Comp Sales: +35% YoY; +56% two-year stacked
Membership & Customer Growth:
🔹 Membership Fee Income: $120.4M; +8.1% YoY
🔸 Driven by growth in high-tier memberships and fee increase (Jan 2025)
Store Expansion:
🔹 5 New Clubs Opened
🔹 4 New Gas Stations Opened
Capital & Shareholder Returns:
🔹 Share Repurchase: 55,000 shares for $6.2M in Q1
🔹 Capex FY25 Guidance: ~$800M
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Net Income: $149.8M; +34.9% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: $203.6M; +26.7% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $285.8M; +20.9% YoY
🔹 Gross Profit: $969.5M (vs. $883.4M YoY); ↑ merchandise margin +30bps YoY
🔸 Management Commentary:
CEO Bob Eddy:
🔸 "Strong execution, membership gains, and traffic growth drove a solid Q1, reflecting our long-term priorities and value-first model."
CFO Laura Felice:
🔸 "We’re confident in our positioning and reiterate full-year guidance, staying focused on executing our growth strategy."
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U.S. HOUSE PASSES REVISED TRUMP TAX BILL, SENDS IT TO SENATE https://t.co/Iya0G9nRBo
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U.S. HOUSE PASSES REVISED TRUMP TAX BILL, SENDS IT TO SENATE https://t.co/Iya0G9nRBo
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