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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Mark Pocan asked the SEC chair if there would be investigations into trades made around tariff announcements: https://t.co/IUYX6aBvhM
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Representative Mark Pocan asked the SEC chair if there would be investigations into trades made around tariff announcements: https://t.co/IUYX6aBvhM
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The All-In Podcast
Chamath on sending his kids to college: Culture > Credentials
@friedberg:
"As a parent, I think a lot about, so much of education in America in the middle class, upper class is all about what college, how do you get them there?"
"And honestly, lately I'm like, I don't think they should go to college."
@chamath:
" My son is a rising junior and his entire focus is he wants to go to an SEC school because of the culture."
" And two years ago I would've panicked and I would've thought, should I help him get into a school? This school, that school?"
"And now I'm like, that's actually the best thing you could do."
"Be socially well-adjusted. Psychologically, deal with different kinds of failures, you know?"
Friedberg:
"Enjoy a few years of exploration."
Chamath:
"Yeah."
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Chamath on sending his kids to college: Culture > Credentials
@friedberg:
"As a parent, I think a lot about, so much of education in America in the middle class, upper class is all about what college, how do you get them there?"
"And honestly, lately I'm like, I don't think they should go to college."
@chamath:
" My son is a rising junior and his entire focus is he wants to go to an SEC school because of the culture."
" And two years ago I would've panicked and I would've thought, should I help him get into a school? This school, that school?"
"And now I'm like, that's actually the best thing you could do."
"Be socially well-adjusted. Psychologically, deal with different kinds of failures, you know?"
Friedberg:
"Enjoy a few years of exploration."
Chamath:
"Yeah."
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Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/21/2025
All Day: G7 Finance Summit
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
12:15: Fed's Barkin
13:00: US 20-Year Bond Auction
Before Open 👇
01:00: $WIX.com
02:00: Golden Ocean $GOGL
04:00: Baidu $BIDU
04:00: iQIYI $IQ
04:30: WeRide $WRD
05:00: Full Truck Alliance $YMM
05:00: Weibo $WB
06:00: Lowe's $LOW
06:00: XPeng $XPEV
06:30: Target $TGT
06:45: Canada Goose $GOOS
06:45: Medtronic. $MDT
06:55: VF Corp. $VFC
07:00: Dycom $DY
07:30: $TJX
07:55: Super Hi $HDL
After Hours 👇
16:05: Snowflake $SNOW
16:05: Zoom $ZM
16:05: $AMSC
16:05: Urban Outfitters $URBN
16:05: $DOMO
16:15: EnerSys $ENS
16:25: Banco BBVA Argentina $BBAR
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/21/2025
All Day: G7 Finance Summit
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
12:15: Fed's Barkin
13:00: US 20-Year Bond Auction
Before Open 👇
01:00: $WIX.com
02:00: Golden Ocean $GOGL
04:00: Baidu $BIDU
04:00: iQIYI $IQ
04:30: WeRide $WRD
05:00: Full Truck Alliance $YMM
05:00: Weibo $WB
06:00: Lowe's $LOW
06:00: XPeng $XPEV
06:30: Target $TGT
06:45: Canada Goose $GOOS
06:45: Medtronic. $MDT
06:55: VF Corp. $VFC
07:00: Dycom $DY
07:30: $TJX
07:55: Super Hi $HDL
After Hours 👇
16:05: Snowflake $SNOW
16:05: Zoom $ZM
16:05: $AMSC
16:05: Urban Outfitters $URBN
16:05: $DOMO
16:15: EnerSys $ENS
16:25: Banco BBVA Argentina $BBAR
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Wall St Engine
$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says U.S. AI chip export curbs to China were a "failure"—costing billions in lost sales and cutting Nvidia’s China market share from 95% to 50% since the Biden administration began.
Huang called competition in China "intense" and estimates the country’s AI market will hit $50B next year. He praised Trump’s plan to revise export rules, saying, “President Trump realizes it’s exactly the wrong goal.”
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$NVDA CEO Jensen Huang says U.S. AI chip export curbs to China were a "failure"—costing billions in lost sales and cutting Nvidia’s China market share from 95% to 50% since the Biden administration began.
Huang called competition in China "intense" and estimates the country’s AI market will hit $50B next year. He praised Trump’s plan to revise export rules, saying, “President Trump realizes it’s exactly the wrong goal.”
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Wall St Engine
Bookings for shipments from China to the U.S. more than doubled to 228K TEUs in the week of May 12, right after the 90-day tariff truce kicked in. Spot rates from Shanghai to LA jumped 16% to $3,136 per FEU. https://t.co/cPZtpxlA6z
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Bookings for shipments from China to the U.S. more than doubled to 228K TEUs in the week of May 12, right after the 90-day tariff truce kicked in. Spot rates from Shanghai to LA jumped 16% to $3,136 per FEU. https://t.co/cPZtpxlA6z
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Wall St Engine
Super Micro $SMCI plans to expand server production in the U.S. as AI demand surges, CEO Charles Liang tells WSJ. The company’s eyeing sites in Texas and Mississippi due to rising costs in Silicon Valley. https://t.co/mduoUUPqVS
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Super Micro $SMCI plans to expand server production in the U.S. as AI demand surges, CEO Charles Liang tells WSJ. The company’s eyeing sites in Texas and Mississippi due to rising costs in Silicon Valley. https://t.co/mduoUUPqVS
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Wall St Engine
FORD TO SHARE BATTERY PLANT WITH NISSAN
Ford $F is scaling back EV ambitions again, letting Nissan use part of its Kentucky battery plant, per WSJ. The plant, backed by a $9.6B DOE loan, was mostly idle. Ford lost $5B on EVs in 2024 and expects the same this year amid slow demand and tariff pressure.
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FORD TO SHARE BATTERY PLANT WITH NISSAN
Ford $F is scaling back EV ambitions again, letting Nissan use part of its Kentucky battery plant, per WSJ. The plant, backed by a $9.6B DOE loan, was mostly idle. Ford lost $5B on EVs in 2024 and expects the same this year amid slow demand and tariff pressure.
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Wall St Engine
KeyBanc Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GOOGL, PT $195
Analyst comments: "We believe Google I/O 2025 reoriented investors back to first principles, i.e., AI success requires a combination of engineering, infrastructure, and distribution, and Alphabet is well positioned across these areas. Importantly, Gemini 2.5 is being distributed through Google AI Mode (which appears next to search), which we believe will help usage and open up paths for commercialization. By tiering AI products between free and paid models, we believe Google is well positioned to meet both consumer and professional needs, and overcome concerns of 'peak search.' We maintain our Overweight rating and $195 price target (19x 2026E P/E)."
Analyst: Justin Patterson
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KeyBanc Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GOOGL, PT $195
Analyst comments: "We believe Google I/O 2025 reoriented investors back to first principles, i.e., AI success requires a combination of engineering, infrastructure, and distribution, and Alphabet is well positioned across these areas. Importantly, Gemini 2.5 is being distributed through Google AI Mode (which appears next to search), which we believe will help usage and open up paths for commercialization. By tiering AI products between free and paid models, we believe Google is well positioned to meet both consumer and professional needs, and overcome concerns of 'peak search.' We maintain our Overweight rating and $195 price target (19x 2026E P/E)."
Analyst: Justin Patterson
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GOOGL, PT $195
Analyst comments: "We come away from Google I/O incrementally positive as we believe Google is leading in many areas of AI with Gemini at the top of foundational model leaderboards, AI Mode bringing Gemini into Search and incorporating agentic capabilities from Astra, Mariner, and Deep Research, and Gemini becoming widely available across numerous platforms (iOS and Android) and device types (smartphones, wearables, and auto). Importantly, Google’s product innovation is accelerating — the company is shipping faster than ever — and AI Mode in Search is rolling out to U.S. users just one year after AI Overviews were introduced.
We believe Google’s 'total reimagining of search' is taking shape as AI Mode integrates what have been somewhat disparate AI products. We also like that the keynote included use cases with commercial intent as Google Marketing Live (keynote Wednesday at 12pm ET) focuses on monetization. While there is a long, competitive road ahead, we come away more confident that Google can successfully navigate the shift to AI Search. We reiterate our Overweight rating on Google shares and our December 2025 price target of $195 is based on approximately 20x our 2026E GAAP EPS of $9.60. GOOGL shares currently trade at around 17x our 2026E GAAP EPS, a 4-turn discount to the five-year average of 21x."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $GOOGL, PT $195
Analyst comments: "We come away from Google I/O incrementally positive as we believe Google is leading in many areas of AI with Gemini at the top of foundational model leaderboards, AI Mode bringing Gemini into Search and incorporating agentic capabilities from Astra, Mariner, and Deep Research, and Gemini becoming widely available across numerous platforms (iOS and Android) and device types (smartphones, wearables, and auto). Importantly, Google’s product innovation is accelerating — the company is shipping faster than ever — and AI Mode in Search is rolling out to U.S. users just one year after AI Overviews were introduced.
We believe Google’s 'total reimagining of search' is taking shape as AI Mode integrates what have been somewhat disparate AI products. We also like that the keynote included use cases with commercial intent as Google Marketing Live (keynote Wednesday at 12pm ET) focuses on monetization. While there is a long, competitive road ahead, we come away more confident that Google can successfully navigate the shift to AI Search. We reiterate our Overweight rating on Google shares and our December 2025 price target of $195 is based on approximately 20x our 2026E GAAP EPS of $9.60. GOOGL shares currently trade at around 17x our 2026E GAAP EPS, a 4-turn discount to the five-year average of 21x."
Analyst: Doug Anmuth
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Wall St Engine
BOFA REITERATES BUY RATING ON $JHX, PT $28
Analyst comments: "We remain buyers of James Hardie post its 4Q results. We think the share price reaction (JHX -6% today) is unwarranted and our price objective of A$44.45 offers approximately 22% return potential. We forecast FY26 EBITDA of $1,147 million, implying 6% year-over-year EBITDA growth (guide: low single digit). Our estimates bake in North America revenue growth of 5% (guide: low single digit) driven by 2% volume and 3% pricing growth.
While 4Q North America average selling price growth of +1% year-over-year is lower versus our expectations, we do not think it indicates JHX is losing pricing power (a concern raised repeatedly in our investor conversations today). We believe the weakness was driven by particularly soft multi-housing starts, which have higher exposure to ColorPlus (mix shift impacted ASP by -1.4 percentage points). Overall, our estimates remain largely unchanged for FY26/FY27 NPAT (+0–1%), with slightly lower North America volumes partially offset by lower corporate costs (which came in below our expectations). This drives our price objective to A$44.45 (target multiple unchanged)."
Analyst: Shaurya Visen
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BOFA REITERATES BUY RATING ON $JHX, PT $28
Analyst comments: "We remain buyers of James Hardie post its 4Q results. We think the share price reaction (JHX -6% today) is unwarranted and our price objective of A$44.45 offers approximately 22% return potential. We forecast FY26 EBITDA of $1,147 million, implying 6% year-over-year EBITDA growth (guide: low single digit). Our estimates bake in North America revenue growth of 5% (guide: low single digit) driven by 2% volume and 3% pricing growth.
While 4Q North America average selling price growth of +1% year-over-year is lower versus our expectations, we do not think it indicates JHX is losing pricing power (a concern raised repeatedly in our investor conversations today). We believe the weakness was driven by particularly soft multi-housing starts, which have higher exposure to ColorPlus (mix shift impacted ASP by -1.4 percentage points). Overall, our estimates remain largely unchanged for FY26/FY27 NPAT (+0–1%), with slightly lower North America volumes partially offset by lower corporate costs (which came in below our expectations). This drives our price objective to A$44.45 (target multiple unchanged)."
Analyst: Shaurya Visen
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Wall St Engine
Baidu $BIDU Q1'25 Earnings Highlughts:
🔹 Revenue: RMB32.45B (+3% YoY) 🟢 vs. RMB31.03B est.
🔹 Adj. EPS: RMB18.54 (▼7% YoY) 🟢 vs. RMB13.84 est.
Segment Performance
🔹 Baidu Core Revenue: RMB25.46B (+7% YoY)
🔹 AI Cloud up 42% YoY
🔹 Online Marketing down 6% YoY
🔹 iQIYI Revenue: RMB7.2B (▼9% YoY)
Operating Highlights
🔸 AI Cloud revenue grew +42% YoY; Baidu upgraded Qianfan MaaS platform and released PaddlePaddle v3.0
🔸 Apollo Go (robotaxi) expanded to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and surpassed 11M total rides; Q1 rides grew +75% YoY
🔸 Baidu App MAUs reached 724M; UP +7% YoY
🔸 Managed Page accounted for 47% of online marketing revenue
Strategic / Capital
🔸 Returned $445M to shareholders in Q1
🔸 Negative FCF due to AI investments | Net cash: RMB159B
Executive Commentary
🔸 CEO: “AI Cloud momentum and Apollo Go’s global expansion show our AI-first strategy is working.”
🔸 CFO: “Investing in AI to drive long-term growth.”
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Baidu $BIDU Q1'25 Earnings Highlughts:
🔹 Revenue: RMB32.45B (+3% YoY) 🟢 vs. RMB31.03B est.
🔹 Adj. EPS: RMB18.54 (▼7% YoY) 🟢 vs. RMB13.84 est.
Segment Performance
🔹 Baidu Core Revenue: RMB25.46B (+7% YoY)
🔹 AI Cloud up 42% YoY
🔹 Online Marketing down 6% YoY
🔹 iQIYI Revenue: RMB7.2B (▼9% YoY)
Operating Highlights
🔸 AI Cloud revenue grew +42% YoY; Baidu upgraded Qianfan MaaS platform and released PaddlePaddle v3.0
🔸 Apollo Go (robotaxi) expanded to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and surpassed 11M total rides; Q1 rides grew +75% YoY
🔸 Baidu App MAUs reached 724M; UP +7% YoY
🔸 Managed Page accounted for 47% of online marketing revenue
Strategic / Capital
🔸 Returned $445M to shareholders in Q1
🔸 Negative FCF due to AI investments | Net cash: RMB159B
Executive Commentary
🔸 CEO: “AI Cloud momentum and Apollo Go’s global expansion show our AI-first strategy is working.”
🔸 CFO: “Investing in AI to drive long-term growth.”
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