Wall St Engine
FED BOSTIC ON RATES AND TARIFFS:
IT IS UNCLEAR IF CONSUMERS TODAY CAN TAKE ON THE FULL COST OF TARIFFS GIVEN STATE OF HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS, RECENT INFLATION
NUMBER OF RATE CUTS THIS YEAR DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS TURN OUT, THE DETAILS OF THE TARIFFS WILL MATTER
LEANING MORE TOWARDS ONLY ONE CUT THIS YEAR BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE TIME TO UNDERSTAND TARIFFS
THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE TARIFFS BECOME LESS OF A STORY OVER TIME
TREASURY MARKETS ARE FUNCTIONING QUITE WELL
INFLATION NOT MOVING TO TARGET AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED
UNCERTAINTY MEANS THERE IS HIGHER RISK, THE FED ONLY CONTROLS ONE PART OF THE PRICE OF CAPITAL
AS THINGS GET MORE EXPENSIVE ITS CHANGES THE CHOICES POLICYMAKERS, HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES FACE, THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE PATH OF THE ECONOMY
RIGHT NOW SEE MORE RISK OF HIGHER INFLATION THAN THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE OF THE MANDATE
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE MOVING IN A TROUBLING WAY
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH MOVEMENT ON THE JOBS SIDE, FIRMS SAY THEY DONT HAVE PLANS FOR LARGE LAYOFFS
DECLINE IN SENTIMENT IS NOT YET PLAYING OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE
MAY BE AT A POINT WHERE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN SENTIMENT AND DATA STARTS TO NARROW; INVENTORY RUNDOWN MAY BE NEARING AN END
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FED BOSTIC ON RATES AND TARIFFS:
IT IS UNCLEAR IF CONSUMERS TODAY CAN TAKE ON THE FULL COST OF TARIFFS GIVEN STATE OF HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS, RECENT INFLATION
NUMBER OF RATE CUTS THIS YEAR DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS TURN OUT, THE DETAILS OF THE TARIFFS WILL MATTER
LEANING MORE TOWARDS ONLY ONE CUT THIS YEAR BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE TIME TO UNDERSTAND TARIFFS
THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE TARIFFS BECOME LESS OF A STORY OVER TIME
TREASURY MARKETS ARE FUNCTIONING QUITE WELL
INFLATION NOT MOVING TO TARGET AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED
UNCERTAINTY MEANS THERE IS HIGHER RISK, THE FED ONLY CONTROLS ONE PART OF THE PRICE OF CAPITAL
AS THINGS GET MORE EXPENSIVE ITS CHANGES THE CHOICES POLICYMAKERS, HOUSEHOLDS AND BUSINESSES FACE, THAT WILL INFLUENCE THE PATH OF THE ECONOMY
RIGHT NOW SEE MORE RISK OF HIGHER INFLATION THAN THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE OF THE MANDATE
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE MOVING IN A TROUBLING WAY
HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH MOVEMENT ON THE JOBS SIDE, FIRMS SAY THEY DONT HAVE PLANS FOR LARGE LAYOFFS
DECLINE IN SENTIMENT IS NOT YET PLAYING OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE
MAY BE AT A POINT WHERE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN SENTIMENT AND DATA STARTS TO NARROW; INVENTORY RUNDOWN MAY BE NEARING AN END
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Wall St Engine
KLARNA HITS 100M USERS, POSTS $92M LOSS ON ONETIME IPO COSTS
Klarna reported a $92M pretax loss in Q1 due to costs tied to its now-paused US IPO, but underlying profitability continued for the fourth straight quarter. Revenue rose 15% YoY to $701M, with U.S. sales up 33%. CEO says AI is boosting efficiency, and revenue per employee is on track to hit $1M.
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KLARNA HITS 100M USERS, POSTS $92M LOSS ON ONETIME IPO COSTS
Klarna reported a $92M pretax loss in Q1 due to costs tied to its now-paused US IPO, but underlying profitability continued for the fourth straight quarter. Revenue rose 15% YoY to $701M, with U.S. sales up 33%. CEO says AI is boosting efficiency, and revenue per employee is on track to hit $1M.
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Wall St Engine
Polymarket’s odds of a U.S. 🇺🇸 recession are sitting at 37%, way down from their peak. https://t.co/MUXUeFUKVX
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Polymarket’s odds of a U.S. 🇺🇸 recession are sitting at 37%, way down from their peak. https://t.co/MUXUeFUKVX
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Wall St Engine
CHINA VOWS TO TAKE MEASURES IF US INSISTS ON GOING ITS OWN WAY
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CHINA VOWS TO TAKE MEASURES IF US INSISTS ON GOING ITS OWN WAY
CHINA 🇨🇳 ISSUES STATEMENT ON US ADJUSTING CHIP EXPORT CONTROLS
CHINA SAYS US UNDERMINES CONCENSUS REACHED IN GENEVA TALKS
CHINA ASKS US TO 'CORRECT WRONGDOINGS' tweet
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Wall St Engine
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 19, 2025)
$SPY -0.92% 🟥
$QQQ -1.25% 🟥
$DJI -0.64% 🟥
$IWM -1.42% 🟥 https://t.co/b05lSdyqXG
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S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (May 19, 2025)
$SPY -0.92% 🟥
$QQQ -1.25% 🟥
$DJI -0.64% 🟥
$IWM -1.42% 🟥 https://t.co/b05lSdyqXG
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Quiver Quantitative
How is this even possible?
Representative John McGuire just filed a single stock trade, his first trade ever.
It was an April 10th purchase of UnitedHealth.
He sits on a House Subcommittee on Health Care.
The stock has fallen 48% since his purchase.
Look at this graph... https://t.co/erePZk88MM
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How is this even possible?
Representative John McGuire just filed a single stock trade, his first trade ever.
It was an April 10th purchase of UnitedHealth.
He sits on a House Subcommittee on Health Care.
The stock has fallen 48% since his purchase.
Look at this graph... https://t.co/erePZk88MM
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Wall St Engine
NIPPON STEEL PITCHES $14B U.S. INVESTMENT TO SAVE U.S. STEEL $X DEAL
Nippon Steel is offering to invest $14B into U.S. Steel, including up to $4B for a new mill, if the Trump admin clears its takeover. The plan boosts its original $1.4B pledge and includes $11B through 2028—$1B of that for a greenfield site expected to grow to $4B.
The deal faces a May 21 national security review deadline. Biden previously blocked the merger; Trump has 15 days after the review to make a call. Nippon’s pushing hard to close the deal, with a $565M breakup fee and 25% steel tariffs at stake.
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NIPPON STEEL PITCHES $14B U.S. INVESTMENT TO SAVE U.S. STEEL $X DEAL
Nippon Steel is offering to invest $14B into U.S. Steel, including up to $4B for a new mill, if the Trump admin clears its takeover. The plan boosts its original $1.4B pledge and includes $11B through 2028—$1B of that for a greenfield site expected to grow to $4B.
The deal faces a May 21 national security review deadline. Biden previously blocked the merger; Trump has 15 days after the review to make a call. Nippon’s pushing hard to close the deal, with a $565M breakup fee and 25% steel tariffs at stake.
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