⁠The All-In Podcast
"That's how you get a deal done in China." 🇨🇳

Travis Kalanick tells the INSANE story of Uber's 2016 merger with China-based Didi

Sit back and enjoy one of the greatest business showdowns of all-time: Uber vs China

This saga included:

-- Uber doing business in China like no company had done before 📈

-- China's SWF investing in Uber competitors around the world to drain its resources 💰

-- A very peculiar Apple investment 🤔

-- Uber burning $75M/week to keep China "scared" 🔥

-- " We knew we had the deal, but we only had the deal if they're scared."

Recorded September 2024 at the All-In Summit
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⁠Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/14/2025

05:15: Fed's Waller
07:00: US MBA Mortgage Applications
09:10: Fed's Jefferson
17:40: Fed's Daly

Before Open 👇
02:00: $SONY
06:30: Dynatrace, Inc. $DT
07:00: Cellebrite $CLBT
07:00: Global-e Online Ltd. $GLBE
07:20: Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. $ARCO
07:20: Endava $DAVA
B.O.: MakeMyTrip $MMYT

After Hours 👇
16:00: Ibotta $IBTA
16:00: Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. $BOOT
16:00: Capital Southwest Corp. $CSWC
16:05: Cisco Systems, Inc. $CSCO
16:05: Iris Energy Limited $IREN
16:05: Nextracker $NXT
16:05: DLocal Limited $DLO
16:10: Hawkins Inc. $HWKN
16:15: TMC the metals company Inc. $TMC
16:15: Star Bulk Carriers Corp $SBLK
16:15: DXC Technology Company $DXC
16:15: Fidelis Insurance Holdings $FIHL
16:20: Karooooo Ltd. $KARO
16:30: STERIS Corp. $STE
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⁠Wall St Engine
Jefferies Downgrades $RIVN to Hold from Buy, PT $16; 'downbeat demand outlook this year'

Analyst comments: "Q1's better numbers were helped by new accounting of previously received funds, but management also demonstrated further progress in driving down R1 variable unit costs and in managing cash carefully. We like Rivian's brand equity story and software achievements, but with a downbeat demand outlook this year, we are left waiting for updates on R2 progress and hoping for third-party opportunities in energy efficiency/software-defined vehicles. Rating to Hold, unchanged $16 PT."

Analyst: Philippe Houchois
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⁠Wall St Engine
Edgewater Comments on Target $TGT: "Weakening traffic trends/share loss evident; Outlook worsening with concern over operational execution, strategic direction."
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⁠Wall St Engine
$SONY TO BUY BACK ¥250B IN SHARES, PROJECTS LOWER PROFIT ON TARIFF HIT

Sony posted FY25 net income of ¥1.14T, up 18% Y/Y, but sees FY26 profit dropping 13% to ¥930B as U.S. tariffs are expected to cut operating profit by ¥100B. Revenue is forecast to fall 2.9% to ¥11.7T. Spin-off of Sony Financial set for board vote in Sept.
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⁠Wall St Engine
BURBERRY TO CUT 1,700 JOBS AMID LUXURY SLOWDOWN

Burberry reported Q4 retail comp sales down 6%, slightly better than the estimated -7.78%. But the company plans to cut ~1,700 jobs as part of a restructuring effort aimed at saving £60M by FY27. FY25 rev hit £2.46B, in line with expectations, but it swung to a £66M pretax loss from £383M profit.
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⁠Wall St Engine
Foxconn, a major supplier for $AAPL and $NVDA, posted a solid Q1, with net profit up 91% Y/Y to NT$42.11B (US$1.38B), beating expectations. Revenue rose 24% to NT$1.644T, helped by early shipments ahead of new U.S. tariffs. But the company lowered its full-year guidance, now expecting revenue to be "stronger" vs "significantly stronger" than last year. Cloud and AI server products made up 34% of Q1 revenue.
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⁠Wall St Engine
TRUMP: I WANT TO MAKE A DEAL WITH IRAN, BUT FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IT MUST STOP SUPPORTING TERROR AND NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON
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⁠Wall St Engine
TRUMP: WE ARE EXPLORING NORMALIZING RELATIONS WITH SYRIA'S NEW GOV; LIFTING SANCTIONS ON SYRIA TO GIVE THEM A FRESH START
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⁠Wall St Engine
$TSLA's BOARD is weighing a new pay package for Elon Musk, per FT. A special two-member committee has been formed to review compensation options—including fresh stock grants tied to performance targets—if Musk’s $56B 2018 package isn’t reinstated via appeal. https://t.co/auhrLfMlUi
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⁠Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Upgrades $SE to Overweight from Neutral, Raises PT to $190 from $135

Analyst comments: "E-commerce growth to come with margin expansion. Shopee’s EBITDA margin of 0.9% to GMV positively surprised in 1Q25, while GMV growth of 21% year-over-year likely outpaced market growth. Moreover, logistics cost per order in Asia declined further by 6% year-over-year despite improvements in service quality and increasing coverage. In our view, the reduction in logistics cost per order is likely to make Shopee more cost competitive while also supporting margin expansion as effective subsidies (as a percentage of GMV) decline. Ad revenues growth of over 50% year-over-year is another positive that emerged from the 1Q25 results. The number of sellers who spent on ads increased 22% year-over-year, and they increased their overall ad spend. The growing ad spend reflects the value that Shopee is bringing to its sellers and buyers and should further support platform growth while bringing in high-margin revenues. In our view, Shopee’s leadership and scale bring numerous levers to improve monetization and drive growth. We increase our FY25/26E segment adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 55%/44%."

Analyst: Ranjan Sharma
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⁠Wall St Engine
CITI ON $OKLO (NEUTRAL; PT $30): 'EXECUTING ON ALL FRONTS BUT NO FIREWORKS'

Analyst comments "Oklo is pursuing initial reactor deployment, isotope business, and a commercial sized fuel fabrication facility. Phase 1 of the pre-application readiness assessment has been initiated, following completion of site characterization at INL. Feedback items from the NRC are expected soon, which will help work through any potential hurdles ahead of formal application submission in 4Q25. First reactor deployment timeframe remains late 2027/early 2028. Total backlog stands at over 14GW, which appears largely unchanged Q/Q. Sam Altman no longer on the Board should facilitate conversations with data centers in addition to potential OpenAI relationship, we think. Atomic Alchemy’s demonstration lab will cost less than $0.5mm and should generate revenues from early to mid-2026, followed by a larger facility in 2028. Lastly, headway is being made to license a commercial fuel fabrication site."

Analyst Vikram Bagri
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⁠Wall St Engine
Morgan Stanley Double Downgrades $CBOE to Underweight from Overweight, Lowers PT to $215 from $256

Analyst comments: "Trimming defensive exposure with double downgrade of CBOE to Underweight (from Overweight) on the back of greater-than-expected tariff de-escalation with China and scope for a better-than-feared macro path ahead, with volatility (VIX) declining sharply. Combined, this could limit upside to index options volumes on CBOE's derivative exchange and weigh on the growth outlook and valuation, with CBOE's shares trading at a premium to recent years and outperforming year-to-date (up 13%). We cut EPS estimates by 1%, and the new $215 price target sees 3% downside, while the bull case sees 38% upside and the bear case sees 41% downside."

Analyst: Michael Cyprys
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⁠Wall St Engine
Citi Reiterates Buy Rating on $AMZN, Maintains PT at $225

Analyst comments: "Yesterday, Amazon held its annual Upfront advertising event and our biggest takeaways include: 1) Amazon’s reach—300 million ad-supported viewers (vs. 275 million in May 2024) and Prime Video’s ad-supported monthly audience reaching 130 million (vs. 115 million in May 2024); 2) Greater engagement—monthly viewing hours up 37% year-over-year; 3) The benefits of live sports on engagement and ads—with Thursday Night Football the anchor and NBA launching in October 2025; 4) Full-funnel focus—88% of Prime Video viewers are shopping on Amazon; and 5) Building out Amazon’s Demand-Side Platform. We project Amazon ads revenue to reach $66 billion this year (+18% year-over-year) as its ability to deliver reach, engagement, and purchases is differentiated. With tariffs on Chinese goods reduced to ~30% (from 145%) and some relief on de minimis, we are incrementally positive on Amazon’s retail business, back-to-school prospects, and operating income, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $225 price target."

Analyst: Ronald Josey
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⁠Wall St Engine
SOUTH KOREAN FINANCE MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON CONFIRMS FX TALKS OCCURRED WITH US
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⁠Wall St Engine
Raymond James Double Downgrades $UNH to Market Perform from Strong Buy

Analyst comments: "We are downgrading UNH to Market Perform following this morning's announcement that the company is abandoning its 2025 guidance just one month after cutting guidance at the 1Q report and also transitioning leadership as Andrew Witty is stepping down as CEO, and former CEO Stephen Hemsley will be stepping back into the role. We think the market was expecting a leadership change, but it was clearly not expecting the retraction of guidance just one month after the 1Q revision. The stock declined 18% on the day and is now down 38% for the year.

We generally despise 'throwing in the towel' in situations like this, as (usually) we find the investor reaction to be more, and often much more, pronounced than the fundamental change. In this case, however, we think that:

1. visibility on the remainder of 2025 is very low with the guidance retraction amidst the elevated trend,
2. the company needs to pass the Stars test in October with \~70% of its members in 4-Star plans,
3. membership growth will likely be muted in 2026, as it prices for margin, and
4. the implied valuation at \~12.5x our new 2026 EPS estimate of \$25.00 is probably in the right range, given peer valuations and the recent negative revision trend.

In short, it will be a while until the smoke clears. We are cutting our 2025 EPS estimate to \$22.00 (down from \$26.25), and our 2026 EPS estimate to \$25.00 (down from \$30.00), as we move our medical loss ratio assumption to 88.5% (+100 bps) in 2025 and 87.6% (+80 bps) in 2026."
Analyst: John Ransom
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⁠Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI Adds $DG to Outperform Tactical and Action Positioning Call List, Reiterates In Line Rating and $100 PT

Analyst comments: "We are adding Dollar General (DG) to our Outperform Tactical and Action Positioning Call List as a TAP ahead of 1Q results, which are set to be reported June 3rd before market open. We look for a potential high single-digit to low double-digit pop in DG shares over the next month, with a view that the 1Q earnings release and likely guidance update should keep the stock grinding higher.

We hosted a meeting with dollar store expert Mike Wilkins earlier this week, who offered a relatively constructive near-term take, in our view, reflecting enhancements that the company has made from a low baseline over the past year. Key positives include a renewed back-to-basics focus, improved processes, and potential for lower shrink, which, coupled with sales momentum identified in our 2nd Measure data on Bloomberg, suggest modest upside to comp and EPS for 1Q.

We believe DG is showing turnaround traction, with 1Q comp sales likely at +2% or more versus our prior +1.2% outlook. Bloomberg 2nd Measure data also indicates positive traffic despite lapping positive traffic in 1Q24. We attribute this to improved in-store execution, lower fuel prices, and potential share gains from pharmacy closures and/or Family Dollar rationalization.

Based on this, we are boosting our 1Q EPS estimate to $1.52 (Street at $1.47), assuming an extra $100 million in revenue with a 20% flow-through rate. With favorable 2Q comparisons, we expect Street comp outlook to migrate to ~2.5% from 1.9%, which could push 2Q EPS to $1.65+ (vs. current $1.58).

We now view the Street’s C2025/26 EPS of $5.57 and $6.15 as attainable, assuming continued execution and trade-in from upper-income consumers. With mid-single-digit revenue growth likely returning, we see potential for DG’s multiple to expand from 14x to 15–17x, implying a near-term trading range of ~$95–$100.

We anticipate a possible increase in DG’s C2025 EPS guidance from $5.10–$5.80 (1.2–2.2% comp) to $5.35–$5.95 (midpoint ~$5.65) vs. the Street at $5.57.

Medium- to long-term concerns remain, including:
a) potential $200–$400 million in labor/wage investment,
b) need to sharpen pricing vs. Walmart given a wide premium,
c) ongoing pressure on low- to middle-income consumers, and
d) tariff-related EPS headwind (potentially high single digits)."

Analyst: M. Michael Montani
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⁠Wall St Engine
TENCENT Q1 NET PROFIT rose 14% YoY to ¥47.82B ($6.64B), missing analyst expectations of ¥52.1B. Revenue came in strong at ¥180.02B, up 13%, beating forecasts. Domestic gaming jumped 24%, international up 23%. Capex nearly doubled YoY as Tencent ramps up AI investment across ads, games, and cloud.
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